Moving the Agenda Leftward

The new NY Times interview with Alan Grayson is great reading, but it also is important in reminding what is at stake in the next two years politically for House Democrats. I want to take issue with a certain tone of the story that suggests Grayson's thinking is not shared through the beltway, but I fear it may be true.

Let me point at a statement by writer Michael Barbaro instead of a line from Grayson to make my point.

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"While surveying the wreckage of the November elections that cost him his seat and looking to the Congressional term ahead, Mr. Grayson posits that many Democrats have not been acting Democratic enough.

Judging by the results of the midterm elections, it does not exactly seem to be a widespread sentiment.

But at a moment when centrism seems to be the party’s antidote to a redrawn political landscape, Mr. Grayson is setting forth a radically different playbook of sharp elbows and unapologetic liberalism.
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If the lesson that Beltway Democrats take away from the November elections is that they should be more meek, give greater latitude to the right and demonstrate a greater level of spinelessness, then they will be part of an ineffective minority forever. I am afraid many of those left standing in Washington will ignore both the frustration among its base for failing to deliver results and the effectiveness of the GOP minority in becoming more strident in opposition.

Now, I am the first to acknowledge Grayson did not run a very good campaign this year. I noted in September that his Taliban Dan ads did far more to make Dan Webster look like a sympathetic figure and himself appear a raving lunatic. After a couple runs as the insurgent challenger trying to tear down an incumbent, I am afraid Grayson never learned how to run as the incumbent himself.

But his actions in Congress turned him into a national hero among the left, and helped generate financial support from across the country. That should mean something to Democrats looking at their own re-election campaigns in two years.

More importantly, though, is that voters will have zero incentive in two years to return the Democrats to power if the party is spending its days in Washington watering down its own agenda to satisfy a party in the majority. More than ever, Democrats in the House must be acting as the loyal opposition. They shouldn't join in with John Boehner's army. They should expose the overreaches by a tea-party driven GOP at every possible step.

It always strikes me that the GOP is better at being in the minority. They use procedure to stop actions they find heinous. They demand a place in the national debate even if they are losing legislative battles. They compromise little, and refuse to let their brand get tarnished with legislation they don't believe in.

Now, the Democrats are entering a session in which they are the minority. They ought to learn more from the GOP which just took over, and they ought to appreciate the fact placating, compromising Blue Dogs took the greatest hit of any Democratic group this fall. As Daily Kos noted immediately after the election, more than half of the Blue Dog caucus was fed their dogfood on Election Day and sent home with nothing but a congeniality award for their work across their aisle.

Alan Grayson lost, but so did Allen Boyd. And while Boyd was quick to blame the liberals, playing to the center earned him no points with conservative Panhandle voters interested in having a predictable Republican representing them. Even as it became clear Boyd would lose, the press was wringing its hands over how a conservative Democrat could be in trouble. In truth, it's obvious. Conservative voters didn't care how often Boyd sided with them on issues as long as he continued to go on the field in a blue jersey, vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker and stand with President Obama during the president's expected visits here two years from now.

Now, no one is talking about Boyd running again, but many are urging Grayson to make a fresh run at the seat. I suspect redistricting will make that a hard go, and would rather Grayson find a career in punditry, but it says something that enthusiasm still exists for a candidate supposedly ousted because he was too liberal, but none exists for a seven-term incumbent who promised to be just conservative enough.

At Last, I Hate Allen Boyd (and now Ron Klein)

Update: To be fair, Boyd did end up voting for the Middle-Class tax cuts when they hit the floor for a final vote. The test vote I refer to below was held in advance, which is when Boyd and others tried to stop this vote from even happening. He was among 13 Democrats who voted against this in the test vote, but then switched his vote.

BTW, does it seem strange that Ginny Brown-Waite and Adam Putnam missed this vote entirely? Maybe Putnam is in transition mode for Agriculture Commissioner. But has Brown-Waite just completely checked out already?

Update 2: Omigod, Ron Klein ended up voting Nea? Even when Boyd flipped? Perhaps I need to send some vitriol toward the East Coast as well.

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Right after the elections were done, I noted that I wished I hated Allen Boyd as much as many liberal bloggers hated the Blue Dogs. If so, perhaps it would have softened the blow of losing every single competitive Congressional race in Florida.

Today, I say happily that Boyd has given me enough reason to spew venom his way. Boyd was among 33 Democrats who crossed party lines to vote against a test vote on the tax cut for the middle class. Combined with his recent railings against Nancy Pelosi, I have lost all respect for the outgoing Democratic congressman.

It is one thing to be conservative on gun rights and other social issues which simply don't play well with Panhandle voters. Heck, I can even believe Boyd holds those views sincerely. But today, he voted against the interests of his constituents. And if he really cares about keeping taxes low, he missed the chance to reduce them for 98-99 percent of those living in his district.

Of note, other Democrats who supported extending all the Bush tax cuts still ended up voting for this legislation. For example, Suzanne Kosmas supported all of the Bush cuts. But she wasn't about to vote against extending them just for those making up to $250,000 so she could hold out for the top 2 percent of Americans. She is in exactly the same situation as Boyd now, having cast very centrist votes but still getting punished by Republicans on Election Day.

Of course, Kosmas will likely have a chance later to vote in favor of the tax cuts for the rich. Fine. So will Boyd. But today, he said he wouldn't help the middle class unless he was certain the rich got theirs.

Congressman Boyd, you will not be missed by many Democrats in Florida. Don't believe for one second that you can come back in two years and run as a Democrat. Your plan to be a Republican in Blue Dog clothing finally backfired in November, and as your legacy, you have dropped all pretense of being a Democrat at all. The middle-class tax cuts passed despite your objection, so all you earned with your 'no' vote was a helping of shame.

But at least you have made otherwise difficult-to-stomach election results a little easier to swallow.

A More Admirable Intraparty Dispute

Since I attacked Allen Boyd earlier this week for blaming Nancy Pelosi for November losses, I thought it only appropriate I weigh in on reports of Bill Nelson coming after Barack Obama. But I must say, I have very different view here.

The St. Pete Times is reporting that Florida's senior senator is angry at the White House for its soft approach to a number of very local problems. On his list of beefs are weak support for NASA, the BP claims process and a disappointing home foreclosure program. And I have to say, it is hard to find fault with Nelson's complaints.

The foreclosure program was teased during one of Obama's first town halls, one held in Fort Myers where I was present. At the time, he suggested very strongly that people who were underwater on their homes would be eligible for a new program to help fill that gap between the value of a home and the debt still owed. Problem is that the program, like so many efforts from Washington of late, was aimed at helping banks more than homeowners. An enormous number of underwater homeowners, including myself, couldn't prove they were far enough up crap creek to qualify for help. Those who could get help were in such dire straights it really made more sense to walk away, all associated personal shame aside.

Now, I have made my feelings known about NASA. I understand why Obama is doing what he is doing, but I also understand why Nelson, who has gone into space himself aboard a NASA shuttle, would fight so hard. And from a jobs perspective, it is truly terrible timing to stop shuttle launches when there isn't exactly a lot of opportunity for highly-skilled NASA layoff victims.

Then there is BP. This is a disaster which just won't stop hurting the administration. When Tony Hayward is having more PR success than the White House, something is wrong. The people should still be angry at BP, but they seem to have more lingering frustration with Obama.

So I think Nelson's arguments with the White House are justified. Plus, these are not problems which are antagonistic to progressives, the way Boyd's assault on Pelosi's leadership clearly was. But another thing separates Boyd and Nelson. Boyd only decided to complain after he got his bottom handed to him by voters this month. Nelson is most assuredly making noise now because he is up for re-election in 2012, but he is coming out now in hopes the administration can do something about all this.

The thing is, these problems will become a noose around the neck of a sitting Democratic senator if they can't get fixed in two years. No matter how much Nelson attacks the White House, he will be blamed for their failures, and he knows it.

But so will the White House. Florida will absolutely be a swing state again in 2012, and Obama will be in a far more defensive posture next go-round. He will need this state, whereas it was just gravy two years ago. Nelson's tough love could make a difference not only in his chances for re-election, but in Obama's.

Now we just need the White House to listen.

No, Boyd is the Face of Boyd's Defeat

Update: Pelosi prevailed and will be minority leader. Tough year, Allen.

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I was never someone who said we should toss out the Blue Dogs when a fragile minority was at stake in the House this year, but right now, I am regretting everything good I said about Allen Boyd this year.

Politico is reporting that the ousted Panhandle Democrat went after Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, calling her "the face of our defeat" in a closed-door caucus meeting. But what he fails to recognize is that Democrats who stuck to their guns on principles nationwide fared better than the Blue Dogs across the country.

Were their ads targeting Pelosi in Florida's 2nd this year? Of course. I presume there will be ads targeting John Boehner there in 2012, unless the party just writes off the seat as a permanent loss. That is what happens when the minority party senses the voters want to punish the party in power. It works because, like it or not, Nancy Pelosi is probably a better recognized figure than Allen Boyd is even in his home district. I'm not so sure the same can be said of an Alan Grayson, not that that helped this year.

But that gets to a bigger point. Florida was in a mood to toss Dems this year. It wasn't just in Congress but in the Cabinet and state Legislature as well. Alex Sink wants to blame Obama. Boyd wants to blame Pelosi. Both are wrong.

They lost because the right was energized, and the rest of America was depressed. The same was true in reverse in 2006 when Pelosi came to power.

Since getting the gavel, Pelosi has been the most effective House Speaker in well over a decade. She has whipped like Gingrich and made the House the source of policy instead of the deliberating Senate. Now, members of her own caucus are attacking her for exactly that reason.

I am reminded that Boyd ran an aggressive campaign against Al Lawson in the primary this year, and almost lost. I said then that we should stick with Boyd, but now I regret that stance. Boyd attacked the progressive Lawson with far less remorse than he wielded against Steve Southerland, who proved to be the death of him.

The other thing that may have happened, assuming Boyd is right about the party shifting too far to the left, is that this may have simply been a corrective election. Southern Democrats like Boyd are a dying breed, and with good reason. If the voters in the Panhandle really want a conservative, now they have one. I think progressives in the Panhandle deserve better than Boyd. And in two years, I hope we get just that.

It's Election Night in Florida

Update 2: It's a new day in Florida, and a lousy one. Yes, we lost every race I was following. Every stinkin' one. Florida elected criminals, torturers and zealots. So my predictions below seem particular naive today. On the bright side, this blog might have been really boring for the next year or so had this crazy cast of teabaggers just drooped away into the night, so stay tuned, and keep following these rantings.

Update: I forgot to put this on but the amendment fight looks to be heading in a pretty specific direction right now. Only 2 (the military tax exemption), 5 and 6 (Fair Districts) are on the road to passage. The Hometown Democracy, Public Finance repeal and Class-Size revision are all well south of 60 percent right now.

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... and everywhere else, I know. Still, I thought I would once again do some live-blogging of just the most important races in the Sunshine State. I have posted my hopes, dreams, and pragmatic predictions on the blog already, and will update with results through the evening.

My hope for months has been that the elections will become more localized than the chattering class has predicted. Polls of late have made me doubt in that hope, but I still believe the GOP wave tonight can be ebbed a little bit in Florida.

For the sake of accountability, here are my rosy predictions from a few months ago, when I suggested every incumbent Congressman in Florida would be re-elected. I no longer believe that, but it would be nice. But while most national pundits believe our three most endangered Congressmen - Grayson, Boyd and Kosmas - all go down, I believe at least one, maybe two, will live through the night. The Senate race is gone, but we should be able to take the Governor's mansion, and maybe even one of the other Cabinet posts.

Links to my race-by-race posts are below:

FL-Sen: Meek-Rubio-Crist

FL-Gov: Sink-Scott

FL-02: Boyd-Southerland

FL-08: Grayson-Webster

FL-12: Edwards-Ross

FL-10: Justice-Young

FL-22: Klein-West

FL-24: Kosmas-Adams

FL-25: Garcia-Rivera

FL-Cabinet: Gelber-Bondi, Maddox-Putnam, Atwater-Ausley

FL-02: Boyd-Southerland

Update 3: Southerland has claimed victory. This is done.

Update 2: Boyd is under 40 right now, but still talking up supporters. This will run the night before he offers a concession, but I am pretty sure that is how it will end.

Update: Well, Boyd is down, but still above 40 percent. It looks bad, but maybe it's not over. I wish Division of Elections was posting precinct returns by district.

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This is the race I am most pessimistic about this cycle. It is not a good year to be a Blue Dog, and I suspect Allen Boyd will be Florida's Lincoln Chafee '06, an incumbent viewed as a moderate but punished anyway for caucusing with the party in power.

Boyd has the endorsement of the NRA and support from Chamber leaders, but he voted for ObamaCare, and that's enough for Panhandle voters to hand him a pink slip. Who is Steve Southerland? Who cares? He's a Republican.

I'd love to be surprised. Personally, I feel a Blue Dog is better than no Democrat at all. But Boyd performed much worse in the primary than I expected, and he has never been able to pull the party back together.

Are there Kosmas Polls We Don't See?

The news this week that the DCCC was pulling out of Florida's 24th was widely viewed as a sign that Suzanne Kosmas is toast. The move surprises me, because the race looks neck-and-neck from where I sit. That doesn't mean the conclusions are wrong. It just seems odd to me that the nationals would give up on Kosmas just when it felt like fighting time.

It makes me wonder if there are polls sitting in the DCCC offices to which we aren't privy. That's no surprise of course. Partisans tend to release polls with good news and sit on polls with bad news. But then, Sandy Adams hasn't exactly been issuing repeated polls showing a growing margin. Obviously, if things are tight, I'd rather save Alan Grayson myself, but then, I think we can still win both of these seats.

The last poll released by the NRCC, back on Sept. 28, put Adams 10 points ahead. But the day before,Kosmas put out a poll showing herself up by 7. Since then, its been silence from both camps. Unfortunately, House races don't get polled enough, so its hard to tell what to make of these polls. While internals are treated with skepticism because campaigns are reserved about what they release, candidates still need accurate information on where they stand.

Compare the data to a recent Sunshine State out of Florida's second which shows Steve Southerland trouncing incumbent Allen Boyd 56-30. Now even pessimists have questioned this poll, which gives a couple of also-ran candidates a combined 14 percent of the vote. But nobody in Democratic circles is yet talking about throwing in the towel in the Panhandle seat Boyd holds now.

Maybe it's because Boyd is a long-time incumbent and Kosmas is a freshmen. Maybe they figure Kosmas' seat was hand-drawn for Tom Feeney and we just got jucky two years ago when the Abramoff scandal swallowed Feeney whole. But this whole thing just seems odd.

The thing is, Sandy Adams has been the subject of much negative coverage since winning the GOP primary. Her extremist positions on the 17th amendment and a woman's right to choose make her prone to effective attack ads. When Florida Today endorsed Kosmas, they said Adams "lack of knowledge about NASA is appalling," something which matters a great deal in this space-happy district. And while we're talking endorsements, Kosmas snagged the support of the Republican-leaning Orlando Sentinel as well.

Can the NRA save Boyd?

I admit, it would be funny if we end up owing this Panhandle seat to the National Rifle Association. But gun control happens to be one of those issues I have never felt so concerned about. I felt their basic message in the past (Guns don't kill people, people kill people) had some sense to it. Some time ago, unfortunately, the NRA went well beyond gun control and started opposing murder control.

Still, the group understands the importance of keeping ties with Congressmen on both sides of the aisle, and they have endorsed Allen Boyd in Florida's 2nd. This is great news on its own, and as a bonus, the wingers at RedState are going crazy.

I realize a lot of progressives have never been excited about Boyd. Indeed, some prominent sites including FLAPolitics, where I often post diaries, publicly backed Al Lawson during the very close primary this year. I am sure Blue Dog positions such as Boyd's views on gun control played a big role.

But I always felt Boyd was the right candidate for this race. Like it or not, there are Congressional districts in this nation where liberal Democrats just can't win. It sounds cliche, but we still need a big tent. We shouldn't let Naderites or whatever the next left-wing version of the Tea Party turns out to be encourage us to throw out the Boyds with the bathwater.

Boyd isn't with us on tax cuts, but he eventually supported ObamaCare. He likes PAYGO, but also Cap-and-Trade. I wish he was stronger on responsible financial policy instead of holding so many pro-corporate positions, but he is much better than a Ben Nelson. And he is certainly better than Steve Southerland.

Polls right now show Boyd trailing the inexperienced gravedigger challenging his on behalf of the GOTea. I have trouble buying that Southerland is 16 ahead, but then I underestimated Lawson as well. Regardless, this is a tough race, and one where Democrats can't cower away because the candidate isn't with us 100 percent of the time.

The fact is, Boyd has supposedly been in trouble before, but always closed strong. He can win this race, and his support among conservative groups like the NRA could make a big difference. Politics makes strange bedfellows, and we shouldn't kick Boyd out of bed for eating some pro-gun cookies.

A Primary Day Experiment

So I am told there is a primary election in Florida today. The real game kicks off tomorrow morning after we know exactly what the November election will look like in Florida, but tonight, I attempt an experiment in blog coverage. I have created blog posts below on every major statewide and Congressional election being waged in Florida tonight. As the results flow in, I will update each of these posts.

I will also have a post above this one tonight declaring the winners as we learn them. It will be an adventure. Of course, I have some professional obligations tonight as well, and do plan to tuck my kids in at some point. So this may all fall apart. But hopefully this turns out fantastic and can be duplicated again in November.

Here are links to my posts.

FL-Senate: Is is Meek or Greene?

FL-Governor: Will the GOP pick McCollum or Scott?

FL-02: Can Boyd fend off Lawson?

FL-08: Who will face Grayson in November?

FL-17: A successor for Meek is chosen.

FL-24: Kosmas has a primary and the GOP names a challenger

FL-Attorney General: Both parties have unpredictable contests.

Other House races: Of little consequence, but who knows?

Primary Day - FL-02

Update: With 98 percent of the vote in, AP just called it for Boyd. The split is about 0.8 points, but that is likely insurmountable for Lawson. This is officially a Boyd-Southerland race. I must say, this was way closer than I expected it would be, and shows something about Boyd's support moving forward.

Update: This is the last race AP won't call. 90 percent of precincts are in. Lawson has whittled at Boyd all night, indicating he had better Election Day numbers than early voting numbers, but it looks like Boyd can still take it. Lawson is winning his share of counties, including Leon.

Update: Whoa, this has tightened up fast. Boyd still leads but with about 51.4 percent. But that's outside the recount margin. We'll have to see if Boyd can rally the party back together before November. This one is suddenly very, very close.

Update: The counties to report so far are all coming in for Boyd. He leads 55-45 over Lawson right now.

And Southerland has this. He is winning with 58 percent of the vote. Scholl is closest behind with 16 percent.

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Probably the most watched House race in Florida tonight, incumbent Democrat Allen Boyd gets challenged by state Sen. Al Lawson. These Panhandle Democrats are staking out the left, or at least the left as Panhandle Democrats would define it. I predict a Boyd win, but this primary has been the most serious challenge Boyd has contended against in years.

And the Republicans are salivating waiting for their own shot at the seat. The nomination tonight is likely a formality for the GOP, but presumptive nominee Steve Southerland is running against Eddie Hendry, Ron McNeil, Barbara Olscher and David Scholl.

Florida in House Republicans' Sights

A major ad buy shows the National Republican Congressional Committee will focus heavily on dragon-slaying this year, according to Politico. The NRCC has targeted 40 incumbent Democrats, including three in Florida. The list is not especially surprising, with Allen Boyd, Alan Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas making it onto the slate. The biggest surprise to me is that Ron Klein was ignored.

Of course, this strategy offers an opportunity for Democrats seeking open seats, most notably Joe Garcia and Lori Edwards. At least for now, the NRCC seems content to let those races play out on their own. Because this proved popular last go, I will links to my race-by-race take on where things stand now in Florida's most heated house battles.

FL-02: Allen Boyd

FL-08: Alan Grayson

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas

FL-22: Ron Klein

FL-25 and FL-12: Joe Garcia and Lori Edwards

FL-02: Boyd Getting Tested

This is the first time in ages when Allen Boyd has been involved in a real race, but I still have trouble seeing the GOP picking off this seat. I also don't see Boyd getting beaten in the Aug. 24 primary. While many had hoped state Sen. Al Lawson could get the Blue Dog tossed, Lawson simply hasn't run the best of campaigns. Making personal attacks about Boyd's divorce and getting into physical altercations with Boyd trackers have respectively made Lawson appear less like a statesman than an old crank. I am not in the Panhandle, but this race seems done.

In the general, I still have trouble believing Boyd is truly in trouble. He has far out-raised the presumptive Republican nominee Steve Southerland, and I expect that money can go a long way. Boyd has tons of name recognition, not just from 14 years in the House but another 28 in the state Legislature. And I believe this whole 'we-hate-earmarks' thing coming from the tea party megaphones will mean little when it comes to incumbents defending the spending brought home from Washington. This Tallahassee Democrat endorsement (for the primary) ticks off more than $35 million in grant dollars he won. In a district with two major state universities and the center of state government included, this should mean a great deal for voters.

Someday, Boyd will retire. And those old-school Panhandle Dixiecrats, who vote blue more out party loyalty than ideology, are slowly dying. We won't hold this seat forever. But I believe as long as Boyd is around we will continue to keep it blue.

Finance Shows Blue Tide

The new campaign finance figures for Florida Congressional races leave me more optimistic than ever about the prospects of Sunshine State Democrats in November. Call my glasses rose-collared, but I think it seems increasingly likely that if a Republican wave truly strikes the country, it won't have a great effect here. That obviously makes me far more upbeat about Democratic performance than most, but let me explain.

For starters, just look at the statewide summary released by the Federal Elections Commission. Now recall that Republicans already hold the majority of House seats in Florida15-10. So the fact Republican House candidates raised $20 million to Democrats $18 million isn't indicative of greater statewide support as much as it is the number of incumbents with strong support. To really figure where things stand takes a closer look at the numbers.

Now let's look at the House races in play. I am only going to opine on the seats which pundits list as toss-ups, leans and likelys. Don't try and convince me we have a really good shot at taking out Cliff Stearns this year.

Because this post took me much longer to write than I expected, I am trying something new here. I am making every race I analyze its own post, and providing here a sort of table of contents. And this is more than a shameful, shameful way of drumming up my traffic (feel free to click the ads). It also will allow any commenters to post directly to the post on the race they care most about. So disagree with me on FL-02 but agree on FL-25? Just tear me apart on one post, and then feel free to shower with praise on the other.

The short story is I think we will at worst hold our current number of Democratic seats in Florida, but see a way to pick up one seat in FL-25 while defending all other ground in the sunshine State.

FL-02: Incumbent Allen Boyd (D)

FL-08: Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)

FL-12: Open Seat (R)

FL-22: Incumbent Ron Klein (D)

FL-24: Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas (D)

FL-25: Open Seat (R)

FL-02: Incumbent Allen Boyd (D)

FL-02: Incumbent Allen Boyd (D)

Swing State Project surprised me a month ago when they pegged this race as one Dems would lose in November. I don't see it, not that many others do. Cook Political Report still marks this as a Lean Democrat despite an R+6 make-up. This is one the Republican Party of Florida lists every year as a possible pick-up, but always ends up staying Boyd country. SSP cites his vote for Health Care as a sinker, but if anything, that vote simply helps him in what could have been a tough primary battle this year.

The financial reports show Boyd is in very good shape. He has more than $1 million in cash on hand, compared to just under $195,000 for Republican front-runner William Southerland. Grant it Boyd will spend some of that on a Democratic challenge by state Sen. Al Lawson, but these campaign filings show Boyd may be taking the challenge too seriously. A spat over a Boyd tracker being harassed by Lawson drew a lot of attention, but most of it ended up being negative for Lawson (check this Classic Liberal post, which labels Lawson's actions as assault). Right now, Lawson has a little more than $34,000 cash on hand. The primary is Aug. 24, and I think this race is over.

Should Boyd ever retire, this race will show a lot of promise for the GOP. But right now Southerland is being outspent and isn't enjoying any significant presence in the press. And since Boyd really is playing like he's 10 points down, I expect he will do what it takes to emerge victorious. Unless Larson wins, which is unlikely, I don't think the seat is at all in danger.

Joe Garcia and hope for Florida Democrats

A new poll showing a lead for Democrat Joe Garcia in Florida's 25th is already garnering significant attention in the blogosphere, but it also makes me wonder if Florida, in an astonishing twist of fate, could be a significant bright light for Democrats nationwide in a year when the punditocracy predicts losses for the party. Indeed, I think some of the top prognosticators in Washington should probably take a closer look at their Sunshine State predictions right now because I think Democrats almost surely will grow its share of the state delegation.

The poll getting attention shows a 38-35 race between Garcia and Republican David Rivera. Admittedly this is an internal DCCC poll and has a lot of voters still in the undecided column. But there is no question this race is at worst a toss-up, and one where things are trending toward blue. This has potential to be a significant pickup for the Dems in 2010.

As background, this seat is held now by Republican Mario Diaz-Balart, who is fleeing east to run for his brother Lincoln's open seat. This alone should show the direction the district is trending. The incumbent held onto this seat with 53 percent of the vote in 2008 despite a serious challenge from Garcia and a strong tide in favor of Democrats during a year when Barack Obama won Florida's electoral votes. The fact a sitting Congressman, who hand-drew this seat in 2002 as chairman of the House redistricting committee, would rather flee than face re-election should be a sign the seat is up for grabs. Some things were working in Diaz-Balart's favor two years ago, most notably a close relationship with Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Shultz, a Democrat heading up the national push for Democrats to win seats who was reluctant to attack a South Florida colleague. Mario obviously fears Garcia will go after him more aggressively this year, and that he stands a better chance of keeping his job if voters in the 21st mistake him for Lincoln.

But the shady seat shuffling leaves a bad taste in the mouths of 25th District voters. And bad news about Rivera, the GOP frontrunner, had been about the only news in the race. A Tallahassee home he co-owned with Marco Rubio was in foreclosure proceedings this week until Rubio settled with the bank, and thanks to Rubio's high-profile in the Senate race, the story got billing in every political news outlet around. Rivera has also been flopping around on the Arizona immigration law, and his campaign filings have drawn fire. And like so many foolish Republican politicians, he adopted an unfortunate position in favor of offshore drilling a couple years before the Deepwater Horizon disaster. If Garcia is winning the race today, the headlines only have the potential of boosting his lead. Yet Cook Political Report still has this as a "Likely Republican" hold, as does CQ Politics, but I think that demands further review.

Honestly, I think both of those maps have statewide problems. They list Rep. Alan Grayson's seat as a toss-up, which early in the season was understandable but is questionable now. I was stunned two years ago when the Democrat upset Ric Keller, and it seemed voters in such conservative areas as Lake County would want blood. But the presence of a Tea Party candidate in the general and a battle for the Republican nomination seem to be fracturing opposition and paving the way for a Grayson victory party.

The other race in Florida that the nationals are watching is Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in the 24th. Like Diaz-Balart's district, this was hand-drawn by Republicans in 2002, but it has already been lost by the GOP. Kosmas, a Democrat, defeated ex-state House Speaker Tom Feeney there in 2008. And while a Democratic wave and Feeney's own issues surely helped, she won 57 percent of the vote. That is a bigger margin than Bill Posey won during in his inaugural bid in the 15th, just to the South, yet CQ lists Posey's seat as a "Safe Republican" hold. Challenging Kosmas for the Republicans are running Craig Miller, the ousted former CEO of Ruth's Steak House. Unless Kosmas gets embroiled in an unexpected scandal, I expect this to go our way.

Every other incumbent Congressman in Florida is probably safe for re-election, but the only one of them Cook even lists as a leaner is the 2nd, where Democrat Allen Boyd won re-election in a Republican leaning district in 2008 with 62 percent of the vote, even as McCain took the district by 9 points. Should Boyd retire or get hit by a truck, we may have problems with the Panhandle district, but he has held that seat for 14 years, and will continue to do so until he is ready to go.

By my math, that means the Democrats will pick up a seat in the Congressional delegation. And we probably will have a Senator who caucuses with the Dems as well. That should make this a fantastic year for Democrats, in a swing state no less, and that should significantly disrupt a narrative about Democrats facing hard times this year.