FL-02: Boyd-Southerland

Update 3: Southerland has claimed victory. This is done.

Update 2: Boyd is under 40 right now, but still talking up supporters. This will run the night before he offers a concession, but I am pretty sure that is how it will end.

Update: Well, Boyd is down, but still above 40 percent. It looks bad, but maybe it's not over. I wish Division of Elections was posting precinct returns by district.

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This is the race I am most pessimistic about this cycle. It is not a good year to be a Blue Dog, and I suspect Allen Boyd will be Florida's Lincoln Chafee '06, an incumbent viewed as a moderate but punished anyway for caucusing with the party in power.

Boyd has the endorsement of the NRA and support from Chamber leaders, but he voted for ObamaCare, and that's enough for Panhandle voters to hand him a pink slip. Who is Steve Southerland? Who cares? He's a Republican.

I'd love to be surprised. Personally, I feel a Blue Dog is better than no Democrat at all. But Boyd performed much worse in the primary than I expected, and he has never been able to pull the party back together.