Well, here is one that may be more excited than many expected. Republican Allen West had a phenomenal quarter, raising $1.3 million. He now has nearly $2.2 million cash on hand, challenging incumbent Ron Klein's $2.9 million. If there is any devastating surprise waiting for Democrats on election day in Florida, it will happen in Fort Lauderdale. West is trying to be the tea party's answer to Alan Grayson, a tech-savvy national figure who can bottle national conservative outrage and direct it into electoral success.
Of course, that is Grayson's strategy for re-election. The Orlando congressman got into office with a self-funded campaign against a right-wing ideologue. I don't know if it will work as well for West, who has to unseat an incumbent. It didn't go well two years ago, when Klein cleaned West's clock and beat him by more than 10 points. But what all is different this year? Klein is a fighter, and so far has never been delivered an easy campaign in the House. He unseated incumbent Rep. Clay Shaw in 2006, then fought off West in 2008 triumphantly but expensively.
Still, most pundits list this one as a Likely Dem hold, and there is good reason. The district skews D+1, and Klein is an up-and-comer in the House. Democrats see a future here. He is running in southeast Florida, where you either have to be liberal or Jewish to win, and Klein is both. If Republicans catch a major wave this Fall, Klein is out, but as the tea party brand becomes more lodestone than lucky charm, I expect Klein will fend off this challenge. If he can nail another 10-point win, maybe he can even scare off a serious challenge in 2012.
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