Infighting may save the day for freshman Suzanne Kosmas, as a five way primary divides the right in this R+6 district. The link is to a Florida Today story on an internal poll touted by Ruth Chris Steakhouse flunkie Craig Miller to show he had a plurality lead among Republicans, but that 65 percent remain undecided. FEC reports don't show any more certainty, with Miller again leading with $326,000 cash on hand but Karen Diebel creeping up with about $255,000 and Sandy Adams close behind with just under $182,000.
Every one of those guys has enough money to win this if more than half of Republicans are truly uncommitted. That shows either hubris or anxiety on behalf of the GOP going into this race. Kosmas beat out incumbent Tom Feeney in this district in 2008, but had the perfect opponent. Despite the fact Feeney hand-drew this district for himself in 2002, he was plagued by Abramoff scandals and marred by all sorts of e-voting contract issues. The man was a poster child for what is wrong with career politicians.
But is Miller any better? He is wealthy, but his resume is ripe for attack. He is the classic failed business leader, just the sort of corporate villain the Democrats would like to see this year. And without Miller? While the other two major candidates could secure a spot on the November ballot, they have big strides to make in name recognition in order to beat Kosmas. The incumbent has more than $1.2 million cash on hand herself, and has nothing to spend it on but boosting her own positives until after the August primary.
While this race is one of only two marked toss-up by Cook Political Report, I don't believe it will stay that way forever. With no organized opposition, Kosmas may get an easier re-election bid than anyone could or should expect. This feels like a seat we will successfully defend.
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