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Monday, July 19, 2010

FL-25: Open Seat (R)


Want to know our biggest chance at surprising the world? Look south to Joe Garcia's campaign to take the 25th. The presumptive Democratic nominee gave Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart enough of a scare in 2008 that Mario is running to his big brother's district next door to seek re-election in friendlier territory. In an anti-incumbent year and an R+5 district, we'd probably be better off fighting Diaz-Balart than Republican hopeful David Rivera, but lucky for us, Rivera has been a terrible candidate.

The biggest issue is probably his foreclosure connection to Marco Rubio. That story has statewide legs and has brought negative publicity for a supposed fiscal conservative. He is facing domestic violence accusations, always fun. He has also been using some questionable techniques to raise money at FIU, which were unsound enough to draw a rebuke from the university president.

As for money, Rivera still leads but not by an impressive amount. The Republican has $1.1 million cash on hand, while Garcia has just over $623,000. But Garcia doesn't need money as much. Rivera is a state lawmaker and has appeared on the ballot in part of this district, but Garcia has run district-wide. There were 115,820 people who voted for him in 2008, and that was during a presidential election. Hopefully he can mobilize those forces again and take this open seat from Republican hands. He is a proven vote-getter and a potential winner for the blue team.

Is it likely? I wouldn't be honest if I didn't say we have an uphill battle here. But it seems more likely Garcia will win this race than that West will beat Klein. Heck, I think this race is more likely to end up changing hands than Kosmas' seat. And without an incumbent, this one really is ours to win.

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