It's Election Night in Florida

Update 2: It's a new day in Florida, and a lousy one. Yes, we lost every race I was following. Every stinkin' one. Florida elected criminals, torturers and zealots. So my predictions below seem particular naive today. On the bright side, this blog might have been really boring for the next year or so had this crazy cast of teabaggers just drooped away into the night, so stay tuned, and keep following these rantings.

Update: I forgot to put this on but the amendment fight looks to be heading in a pretty specific direction right now. Only 2 (the military tax exemption), 5 and 6 (Fair Districts) are on the road to passage. The Hometown Democracy, Public Finance repeal and Class-Size revision are all well south of 60 percent right now.

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... and everywhere else, I know. Still, I thought I would once again do some live-blogging of just the most important races in the Sunshine State. I have posted my hopes, dreams, and pragmatic predictions on the blog already, and will update with results through the evening.

My hope for months has been that the elections will become more localized than the chattering class has predicted. Polls of late have made me doubt in that hope, but I still believe the GOP wave tonight can be ebbed a little bit in Florida.

For the sake of accountability, here are my rosy predictions from a few months ago, when I suggested every incumbent Congressman in Florida would be re-elected. I no longer believe that, but it would be nice. But while most national pundits believe our three most endangered Congressmen - Grayson, Boyd and Kosmas - all go down, I believe at least one, maybe two, will live through the night. The Senate race is gone, but we should be able to take the Governor's mansion, and maybe even one of the other Cabinet posts.

Links to my race-by-race posts are below:

FL-Sen: Meek-Rubio-Crist

FL-Gov: Sink-Scott

FL-02: Boyd-Southerland

FL-08: Grayson-Webster

FL-12: Edwards-Ross

FL-10: Justice-Young

FL-22: Klein-West

FL-24: Kosmas-Adams

FL-25: Garcia-Rivera

FL-Cabinet: Gelber-Bondi, Maddox-Putnam, Atwater-Ausley

Florida Cabinet: Gelber-Bondi, Maddox-Putnam, Atwater-Ausley

Update: Right now all Republicans are in the high 50s. It looks like everything but the Governor's seat is most likely going red this year.

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I am just doing one post for these races. I am sorry. I thought we would have some real contests this year, but it seems the only one which maybe will be an interesting fight to watch is the Attorney General fight. I suspect the Agriculture Commissioner race and the Chief Financial Officer contests will be routs.

In the AG race, I think Dan Gelber can pull this out, and he deserves it, but Pam Bondi is also a good candidate and can ride a Republican wave to victory. She surprised me by beating Jeff Kottkamp during the primary, and I am sure a lot of conservatives will tell me she never lost the upper hand.

I am voting for Scott Maddox in the Agriculture Commissioner race, but don't think he stands a shot at winning. Adam Putnam has the upper hand in name recognition and money. And he was on the air with statewide ads while Maddox was still holding cutesy contests for his supporters to pick his ads.

And in the CFO race, well, I haven't voted yet today but I am leaning toward Jeff Atwater. Go ahead and roast me. I know he was on a board for a failed bank, and that is bad, but I kind of appreciate his pre-BP fight against offshore drilling, and know the Cabinet someday could be the body making choices on who gets to pollute our shores. Loranne Ausley has never stood out to me. I have nothing against her, but I don't see her winning this thing.

Special Session Lasts Less Than Three Hours

So much for saving our coasts. Both chambers of the Florida Legislature adjourned within hours of lawmakers arriving in Tallahassee.

Roughly 43 minutes after convening the special session of the Florida Legislature today, House Speaker Larry Cretul adjourned, spitting in the eye of Gov. Charlie Crist and pissing all over the chance to put a question before voters this year on banning oil drills in state waters.

From Sunshine State News:

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“The Florida Constitution authorizes the governor to call the Legislature into special session for any legislative purpose,” said Cretul. “When the call is issued, we are compelled to assemble.

“But from the moment a quorum assembled here, the agenda in this House is and always will be set by its membership.

“The governor has no direct authority to propose constitutional amendments to voters. The governor has no veto power over proposed constitutional amendments. The fact remains that he has called us here at the last possible moment to consider a constitutional amendment for which he never proposed language and permitted far too little time for reflection and review. That is a terrible way to propose constitutional changes.”

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I was hoping Senate President Jeff Atwater would go ahead and follow through with a vote in his chamber because he has been such a champion in the fight against offshore drilling. Alas, no. Instead, he closed up the Senate and blamed both Crist and Cretul for putting politics ahead of state interests. And in the state capitol no less. Also, he is shocked, shocked!, that there is gambling at the Hard Rock.

At least he left the door open for coming back to Tallahassee to tackle this, suggesting a broader call by the governor could lead to a longer, perhaps even multi-day, session.

Via TBO:

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"I firmly believe there is much more meaningful work that can be done,'' he (Atwater) added. "It is quite likely we will find ourselves here again in the near future.''

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So what does this mean politically?

Clearly, there is little love among Florida GOP leaders for the recently independent governor. But Cretul is surely not so inept as to think this hurts Crist with voters. This furthers the narrative Crist is the true independent voice in the Senate race. In Charlie's world, Marco Rubio represents the wingnut fringe and Kendrick Meek doesn't exist. Sigh.

For Atwater, this gets him out of a political pinch short-term. He is running for CFO and enjoys being the anti-drilling Republican on the state ballot. By letting this break down into a process question, it avoids the risk of Atwater leading an unsuccessful charge to get a referendum on a drilling ban before voters. That said, he is now on record against discussing a drilling ban, and Democratic opponent Lorrane Ausley is on record in support. This, in many ways, is the opening she needs to take the high ground on an important statewide issue where Atwater has always enjoyed good standing.

This also opens up the door to criticism of lawmakers around the state that they place politics ahead of saving the state from the black doom in the Gulf of Mexico. Who sees the upside to this? Some inland lawmakers, who likely weren't at risk over drilling anyway, won't be badly hurt by a vote quashing a drilling debate, but a vote to end the session by coastal Republicans seems to me an easy thing for opponents to prey on. Of course, that assumes lawmakers have opponents in elections.

Sadly, this really shows how broken the Tallahassee political system remains. When there is no accountability for our leaders, then they will not react to crisis in a way the first benefits the voters. We have seen special sessions called to discuss property taxes and insurance rates, to discuss education reforms and other highly politicized topics. The argument a vote on oil isn't necessary right now, even as sludge creeps to our shores, is ludicrous when compared to previous calls.

But it is what it is. Now it is up to environmentally-minded voters in Florida to use this against opponents of clean beaches.

A Sorta United Front

As the Florida Democratic Party rallies behind its candidates for Agriculture Commissioner and Chief Financial Officer, party chair Karen Thurman is trying to show a united front, sending out emails to supporters which tout the value of both candidates. A strong show of force, except, why isn't she touting these peole individually?

It is still early, so I am probably reading too much into this, but it seems to me the partisan line of attack shows a bit more about these candidates problems. And the message for voters in November is that everyone should vote the party line, I don't think that is a wise strategy, or a fair one to either candidate.

Scott Maddox, the Democrat running for Agriculture Commissioner, is a former Tallahassee mayor, a previous party chairman and a near-successful candidate for Attorney General. In addition to a great record of public service, Maddox also has statewide name recognition and voters in every part of Florida who have cast votes for him in the past. He runs against U.S. Rep. Adam Putnam, R-Bartow, a bright-faced leader popular mostly among Republican politicos and who has never run statewide. While a formidable opponent, Putnam is certainly beatable.

Loranne Ausley, a state representative from Tallahassee seeking the CFO post, is in a very different situation. A candidate unknown outside the Panhandle, where she probably won't win anyway, Ausley is going to have a very uphill battle against Jeff Atwater, the Republican Senate leader most notable statewide for single-handedly ending the debate last year to allow offshore drilling.

Both Maddox and Ausley are underdogs, fo sure, but the line of attack each of them should take is starkly different, and tying the two closely may not be a wise move by the Florida Democratic Party. Now I am not sure the "anti-Democrat wave" that keeps being discussed in the media will be anything memorable. I actually think Democrats have the chance to pick up seats in Florida's Congressional delegation. But I certainly don't think at a time when voters across the spectrum are so frustrated with business as usual is a moment when many people will vote a straight ticket.

Maddox, I believe, has been running an effective strategy of nailing Putnam on drilling. The Congressman's stance on this issue is the wrong one for a state threatened by the biggest oil spill in American history, and should the Cabinet ever be given the power to give offshore leases, there need to be Cabinet candidates who understand why drilling is a bad idea.

But for Ausley, that is a bad line of attack. Atwater's record is outstanding on oil. She needs to focus on financial issues and tax matters, places where Atwater's positions are more debatable. She needs to focus on matters like Amendment 1, a disastrous property tax measure which has destroyed state revenues. And she needs to spend more time building her name against a candidate with statewide reputation.

So please, let Maddox and Ausley run seperate campaigns. That is the only way they will ever egt to work together on the Cabinet.