Growing up in this area of Florida, I never expected to see a Democrat represent the 8th, so it isn't surprising to me that the Republicans, upset at Ric Keller's defeat in '08, would want this seat back. They seem to have a good line-up of candidates vying for the race, but Grayson in two short years has set himself up as the newest star of the liberal movement. He has embarked on massive promotional and fund-raising efforts which have turned him into a national figure, and as such, he will be difficult to beat.
Bottom line? Grayson is sitting on $1.4 million in cash on hand. That could fund a Senate race. Of course, the right would love to pick him off too, and plenty of dough has been split among the Republican challengers. But a late primary benefits Grayson tremendously. It remains unclear who the GOP challenger will be in this race, and whether the party will be able to coalesce around that candidate in two short months.
The best choice is probably retired state Sen. Dan Webster, a former state Speaker and an historically-celebrated leader among Florida conservatives. But thanks to a late entry and divided loyalties, Webster has only about $165,000 in the bank. Businessman Bruce O'Donoghue, in contrast, has almost $300,000. Two other Republicans - Kurt Kelly and William Todd Long - have more than $100,000 cash on hand, which likely won't make them top-tier but will be enough to muddle the race more.
In short, Grayson should be a favorite for re-election as things stand today. The ultimate GOP nominee will have a lot of work in front of them to make this competitive, but that is far from impossible.
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