Swing State Project surprised me a month ago when they pegged this race as one Dems would lose in November. I don't see it, not that many others do. Cook Political Report still marks this as a Lean Democrat despite an R+6 make-up. This is one the Republican Party of Florida lists every year as a possible pick-up, but always ends up staying Boyd country. SSP cites his vote for Health Care as a sinker, but if anything, that vote simply helps him in what could have been a tough primary battle this year.
The financial reports show Boyd is in very good shape. He has more than $1 million in cash on hand, compared to just under $195,000 for Republican front-runner William Southerland. Grant it Boyd will spend some of that on a Democratic challenge by state Sen. Al Lawson, but these campaign filings show Boyd may be taking the challenge too seriously. A spat over a Boyd tracker being harassed by Lawson drew a lot of attention, but most of it ended up being negative for Lawson (check this Classic Liberal post, which labels Lawson's actions as assault). Right now, Lawson has a little more than $34,000 cash on hand. The primary is Aug. 24, and I think this race is over.
Should Boyd ever retire, this race will show a lot of promise for the GOP. But right now Southerland is being outspent and isn't enjoying any significant presence in the press. And since Boyd really is playing like he's 10 points down, I expect he will do what it takes to emerge victorious. Unless Larson wins, which is unlikely, I don't think the seat is at all in danger.
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