Grayson's Re-Entry

A Daily Kos diary by Alan Grayson shows most of all that he is doing his homework on what it will take for Democrats to win in Florida in 2012. Without an actual Congressional district to run in as of yet, that's the most we can expect.

Here is the line most people are latching onto:
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In 2010, my district and everywhere else in Florida, Republican turnout was in the sixties. Democratic turnout was in the forties. Republican turnout was close to what it was in 2008; Democratic turnout was barely half of what it had been. In 2010, I could have won every Democratic vote (and almost did), plus every Independent vote, and I still would have lost. When I saw those numbers, I said on MSNBC, “when Democrats don’t vote, Democrats don’t win.”
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A good lesson.

What is the biggest takeaway to me? He doesn't ever say the word Webster.

I have noted before, the Florida Legislature is going to be good to Rep. Webster. As much of a radical right-winger as the man seems to the progressive blogosphere, Webster has extraordinary constituent relationships and a legendary ability to make friends with people on both sides of the aisle, no matter how far apart they may sit philosophically. If his adoration as the Grayson slayer isn't enough to win him friends in the GOP-filled state capitol, just his reputation as a fair state House speaker and state senator will lead to a GOP-leaning district which includes Webster's strongholds.

I don't care if Grayson ends up still living in Webster's district when the lines are drawn. There is going to be a left-leaning new district in Central Florida. That is where Grayson should run. The man will serve us well when he returns to Congress. Although most of us always liked that Grayson seemed unfettered by political consequence, we can likely trust to see an even more confident progressive head to Washington if he is representing a safe Democratic seat.

I very badly want to see Grayson return to Congress. He needs to run next year in an open seat if that goal is to be accomplished.

Grayson Playing It Wise For Now

So far, Alan Grayson seems to be plotting his return to Congress using something he has sometimes lacked: sense. I didn't expect it first, what with him filing for a district that doesn't actually exist. But he seems to be acting in way that is appropriately shrewd and politically realistic.

An Orlando Sentinel shows the flexibility which Grayson shows in evaluating the prospects for his own future, but more importantly to me, it shows a calm assessment of where his chances are most promising. I feared last November that Grayson would try to win his own district back, knowing full-well that Dan Webster would run in much more friendly territory in 2012.

Why? Webster is extraordinarily popular in Tallahassee. He was buoyed by a GOP wave last year which allowed him to win a majority Democrat seat, but enough rich Republican territory lies on the edges on that district that it seems inevitable a Republican legislature will make this a right-leaning district this year. All reports also point to the Republicans trying to stem off criticisms of partisanship by making sure one of the new Congressional district in Florida ends up as a Democratic seat. (Mark that as one success for the Fair Districts amendment)

The real question now is whether Grayson can win in this new district. It will be a majority-minority seat, but it will be curious to see the racial breakdowns when all is said and done. If blacks outnumber Hispanics, for example, it may end up Gary Siplin's race to lose, despite his own baggage. But if this is an Hispanic seat, it could be up for grabs for a Grayson comeback. So far, I have not heard of a field-clearing Hispanic candidate from this area, but feel free to inform me of one.

Of course, Grayson will likely see the same flood of national dollars from activists across the country that made for a huge war chest in 2012, even if that war chest proved ineffective against a GOP tidal wave in the state of Florida. Certainly, I would be happy to see him back on the floor of the U.S. House, and would feel less anxiety if he held a safe Democratic seat.

If things don't work out with redistricting, though, I hope Grayson stays realistic and sits this cycle out. He is an effective progressive voice that actually needs the megaphone of public office less than most anyone else. I expect 2012 to be a much, much friendlier year for Democrats than the last painful cycle, but especially with redistricting controlled by the other side, I don't expect a Dem wave in Florida.

I would hate to see Grayson branded a three-time loser. For now, I think he is playing things safe. As much as I enjoy his past bombast, safe is the right thing for him to do.

Moving the Agenda Leftward

The new NY Times interview with Alan Grayson is great reading, but it also is important in reminding what is at stake in the next two years politically for House Democrats. I want to take issue with a certain tone of the story that suggests Grayson's thinking is not shared through the beltway, but I fear it may be true.

Let me point at a statement by writer Michael Barbaro instead of a line from Grayson to make my point.

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"While surveying the wreckage of the November elections that cost him his seat and looking to the Congressional term ahead, Mr. Grayson posits that many Democrats have not been acting Democratic enough.

Judging by the results of the midterm elections, it does not exactly seem to be a widespread sentiment.

But at a moment when centrism seems to be the party’s antidote to a redrawn political landscape, Mr. Grayson is setting forth a radically different playbook of sharp elbows and unapologetic liberalism.
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If the lesson that Beltway Democrats take away from the November elections is that they should be more meek, give greater latitude to the right and demonstrate a greater level of spinelessness, then they will be part of an ineffective minority forever. I am afraid many of those left standing in Washington will ignore both the frustration among its base for failing to deliver results and the effectiveness of the GOP minority in becoming more strident in opposition.

Now, I am the first to acknowledge Grayson did not run a very good campaign this year. I noted in September that his Taliban Dan ads did far more to make Dan Webster look like a sympathetic figure and himself appear a raving lunatic. After a couple runs as the insurgent challenger trying to tear down an incumbent, I am afraid Grayson never learned how to run as the incumbent himself.

But his actions in Congress turned him into a national hero among the left, and helped generate financial support from across the country. That should mean something to Democrats looking at their own re-election campaigns in two years.

More importantly, though, is that voters will have zero incentive in two years to return the Democrats to power if the party is spending its days in Washington watering down its own agenda to satisfy a party in the majority. More than ever, Democrats in the House must be acting as the loyal opposition. They shouldn't join in with John Boehner's army. They should expose the overreaches by a tea-party driven GOP at every possible step.

It always strikes me that the GOP is better at being in the minority. They use procedure to stop actions they find heinous. They demand a place in the national debate even if they are losing legislative battles. They compromise little, and refuse to let their brand get tarnished with legislation they don't believe in.

Now, the Democrats are entering a session in which they are the minority. They ought to learn more from the GOP which just took over, and they ought to appreciate the fact placating, compromising Blue Dogs took the greatest hit of any Democratic group this fall. As Daily Kos noted immediately after the election, more than half of the Blue Dog caucus was fed their dogfood on Election Day and sent home with nothing but a congeniality award for their work across their aisle.

Alan Grayson lost, but so did Allen Boyd. And while Boyd was quick to blame the liberals, playing to the center earned him no points with conservative Panhandle voters interested in having a predictable Republican representing them. Even as it became clear Boyd would lose, the press was wringing its hands over how a conservative Democrat could be in trouble. In truth, it's obvious. Conservative voters didn't care how often Boyd sided with them on issues as long as he continued to go on the field in a blue jersey, vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker and stand with President Obama during the president's expected visits here two years from now.

Now, no one is talking about Boyd running again, but many are urging Grayson to make a fresh run at the seat. I suspect redistricting will make that a hard go, and would rather Grayson find a career in punditry, but it says something that enthusiasm still exists for a candidate supposedly ousted because he was too liberal, but none exists for a seven-term incumbent who promised to be just conservative enough.

I'm Gonna Miss This Guy

Ladies and gentleman, the nearly-late but always great Alan Grayson:

Dan Webster just ain't gonna bring posters every day. Probably not even a Berkin.

Hat tip to Kenneth Quinnell.

Nationalizing Elections

One thing this election brought home more than perhaps any other point, all politics is not local.

Now, to be sure, the demographics of particular districts will result in different outcomes. Despite a GOP wave, Corrine Brown could coast to re-election this year. And we will likely never get a shot at someone like Jeff Miller. But when it comes to swing districts and toss-up races, it seems now that nothing is more important than the national narrative.

The GOP says Alan Grayson was too liberal for his district, but being conservative didn't help Allen Boyd. And can anyone be more middle-of-the road than Suzanne Kosmas? Does anyone represent the demographic make-up of their district as well as Ron Klein?

No, the other thing Florida's ousted congressmen have in common this year is that they were Democrats in a year when being a Democrat wasn't cool.

Our side benefits from this too. Nobody thought Ric Keller was in serious trouble until weeks before the 2008 election where Grayson took that district. We talk about the Jack Abramoff scandal playing a role in Kosmas' '08 victory, but really, she benefitted most from a national anti-Bush environment and the insurgent Obama candidacy.

Today, Florida has 10 Democratic congressman in a 25-member House delegation. In January, that will drop to 6. Yet, this is clearly still a swing state. The only big difference will be that these four congressman were on the wrong side of a wave.

FL-08: Grayson-Webster

Update 2: Grayson has officially conceded. It appears he was beaten very badly too. Again, very sad.

Update: Forget it. Grayson is done. And I am very, very sad.

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Probably the race being watched by more progressive bloggers around the country. Alan Grayson is exactly what liberals want from a Congressman, and he has the financial success to prove that. Still, most pundits have moved this race into the Lean Republican column.

I think a lot of that has to do with backlash against the Taliban Dan ad. I criticized that ad too, but it wasn't so much because of its content. I just think it was a bad move to go so negative. It earned Dan Webster a lot of national donations, and it made Grayson look weak and desperate.

Nevertheless, I believe Grayson will pull this out. The district leans blue these days, and he has organized his army for a tough fight before. As I said in my main post, I believe we will not lose all three of our most endangered incumbents tonight, and I think Grayson has the best chance to pull this one out.

The Kosmas Plan. The Grayson Plan

Central Florida this year may offer the best example of campaign experimentation for Democrats in this entire campaign cycle as Suzanne Kosmas and Alan Grayson take starkly different approaches to re-election strategies. If one of these incumbents fall in November and the other remains standing, it will set the tone for years on how campaigns in swing districts are waged.

Kosmas is playing the ultimate moderate. She supports the Bush tax cuts, piddled around on Obamacare and has disappointed liberals with a Progressive rating which makes Allen Boyd look like a leftist. She is trying to be what many, including myself, believe is a dying out creature: the Southern conservative Democrat.

Grayson, meanwhile, is the ultimate fighting Democrat. He calls out social conservatism for being outside the mainstream, assaults right-wing health care policy, and fills his coffers with national donations as a result. This is the campaign most of us in the blogosphere have wanted from Democrats. It is what we hoped Howard Dean would do, and after that campaign imploded, what we wished so badly John Kerry had done.

But the "conventional wisdom" has always been, when the going gets tough, run to the center. Never mind that in any sport known to man, the most successful plays normally come from running up the sides.

Right now, Congress is breaking session, and infighting between the conservative Democrats like Kosmas and the liberals like Grayson has resulted in no vote being taken on the tax cuts, either those that benefit the rich, whom Kosmas is apparently quite worried about, or those that affect the rest of us.

There isn't enough polling being done on either of these seats, despite being the most watched Congressional races in the state. Kosmas and Grayson both have released internals which show themselves leading. But Sunshine State just released a poll that shows Grayson behind Dan Webster by 7 points. The NRCC says Kosmas is behind Sandy Adams by 10.

Obviously, everything is still in the air, and the next five weeks are go-time for both incumbents.

I want both freshmen to win re-election, of course. Kosmas is far from my favorite Democrat, but she's better than Rapey McNovotes. But given the choice, I would rather see Grayson re-elected and Kosmas go down than vice versa. While I was hard on the Grayson ad yesterday, I do kind of hope the name Taliban Dan sticks. More importantly, though, I want a declaration that sticking to one's principles and fighting for a liberal cause is not political foolishness, and that a progressive agenda has its place in mainstream America, not just liberal strongholds.

It's still a real possibility both of them could lose, which would suck, but at least would leave no room people to blame being liberal for Grayson's downfall. More important than any candidate is the right for a progressive agenda to be treated with equal respect in the marketplace of ideas, especially when right-wing fanaticism is so often given a pass.

Hey Alan, I'd Rather They Look Crazy

Alan Grayson has sparked a big argument over semantics with an ad which really could have done a lot of good. The issue at hand is an excerpt from a speech by Republican challenger Dan Webster to religious men about the role of genders in marriage, and a quote a film editor just found a little too precious.

"She should submit to me. That's in the Bible."

Of course, as local media have already noted, he said a little more. A full excerpt via the Orlando Sentinel:

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Find a verse. I have a verse for my wife; I have verses for my wife. Don't pick the ones that say, um, she should submit to me. That's in the Bible, but pick the ones that you're supposed to do. So instead, love your wife, even as Christ loved the church and gave himself for it, as opposed to wives submit yourself to your own husband. She can pray that if she wants to, but don't you pray it.

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So what's the difference. Not all that much, really, except the Grayson ad makes it seem like Webster wanted men to go enforce this scripture, and Webster was actually telling them it was up to women to consciously submit to their husbands, and that men should worry about their own action. Either way, I consider a little weird and antiquated.

But I wish Grayson wasn't going this route. It's patronizing and distracting. And it does as much to energize the defensive right as to fire up the left.

The frustrating thing is that Grayson nails Webster on some legitimate public policy positions which fall outside mainstream philosophy. Remember when I noted pro-life groups are touting some 63 House candidates who oppose abortion even in cases of rape or when it saves a mother's life? Webster is now on that list.

The problem is, none of that is getting discussed because of Submit-gate. You have Markos Moulitsas, who is particularly protective of the American Taliban brand, defending Grayson. But Adam Serwer is tearing up the advertisement at the Washington Post. All of this is turning the conversation to Grayson's campaign tactics and away from the fact Dan Webster is kinda nuts.

I always figured Webster would be the toughest person for Grayson to face in the general election, and that is because Webster is the opposite of Grayson in every way. Grayson is known for being willing to fight hard on the floor of Congress. Webster was known for running the state House in a way that allowed Dems a voice on legislation even though Republicans held significant majorities. If Grayson is the king of righteous anger, Webster is the master of calm demeanor. When Webster was considering resigning from the state Senate a few years ago to seek higher office, a bipartisan group of legislators devoted time on the Senate floor to ask Webster not to leave because he was too well-liked within Tallahassee. He makes a difficult target for Grayson's blowtorch tactics.

But as it happens, Grayson is right on the issues, and Webster is right of Attila the Hun. He was the one who sponsored a bill in 2008 requiring women to get ultrasounds before abortions, a bill which a few years later would get passed and sent to Gov. Crist's desk. He pushed for elimination of the intangibles tax under Jeb Bush, just one of the many tax give-aways to the rich which Democrats need to exploit this year in order to energize the middle class.

This is what the voters in Florida's 8th need to learn about Webster. They know he is a nice guy, and spending campaign money convincing them otherwise is just a waste. People need to realize the reckless, right-wing social and fiscal policies that leave this nation economically wasted and far too far from free were promoted in large part by Webster.

Focus on that in the future, Alan. Please don't submit us to more of this worthless praddle.

Primary Day - FL-08

Update: All the media are calling this for Webster. Orange County is still not reporting all numbers, but that seems a safe call. He is beating Long almost 2-to-1 and it seems mathematically difficult to turn this around. The surprising thing to me is how much of a lead Webster took tonight.

By all rights, he should have been the presumptive nominee except that he entered the race late. A former state Speaker and a successful, well-liked state Senator, he had the name-recognition and the know-how to win. He was also likely the toughest opponent for Grayson to face.

I still have confidence Grayson's star power will carry him to re-election, but the Republicans want blood. Now that we have a clear challenger, I'd like to see some legitimate polls on this race (I know, I know).

Update: Numbers are in from big areas, and it seems like Dan Webster is winning. Right now he has almost 40 percent to Long's 22. Biggest surprise? O'Donoghue is only in at 6 right now. Nothing yet from Osceola.

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So who dares take on super-liberal Alan Grayson? Republicans have been falling all over themselves for the chance. We learn tonight who the GOP nominee will be. In contention as Dan Webster, Bruce O'Donoghue, Todd Long, Kurt Kelly, Dan Fanelli, Ross Bieling and Patricia Sullivan.

You better believe this will be a fight to watch in November. Grayson is the first Democrat to hold this seat in decades, and he won it just a few years after Republicans in the Legislature tried to liberal-proof it. Why are those big Grayson ads running all the time on DailyKos and other sites? Because Grayson will have to run a very hard campaign. If he wins, that will be fantastic for the liberal movement as a whole.

But there are good GOP contenders here. The race in November hangs very much on the type of candidate Republicans choose, and how divided the party faithful will be after this fractious primary. May the games begin!

FL-08: Grayson, Ultimate Fighting Dem

Those of us who long ago tired of milquetoast Democrats constantly reasoning their way through public debate have fallen in love with Alan Grayson. Having grown up in Lake County, I have been particularly fascinated. I grew up sitting at the smallest table during mock debates in school. The very notion a liberal Democrat is representing Eustis right now is something I find confusing and exhilarating. But this Fall, it will truly put to test whether being a fighting lefty is a wise move even in swing districts.

Let me cite an odd source, this Errol Louis column in the New York Daily News where Grayson lays out the higher stakes for his re-election fight:

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"I am the first Democrat to represent Orlando in 34 years," he told me. "If I do win reelection, and 25 Democrats go down because they were too weak, too indecisive and pretended to be Republicans, then that will be a learning moment for all the Democrats."

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So far, the strategy has worked splendidly. Grayson is doing what some Republicans mastered years ago and turning his House perch into a national podium. By offering a strident voice to progressives, he has won a national reputation, and reaped huge rewards for his campaign warchest. He has obviously won the scorn of the right as well, and I am sure many people in McCollum country feel this usurper must be turned back.

But riled conservatives and the presumption Grayson would be vulnerable has actually hurt the GOP in a couple ways. Most notably, the primary field is mega-crowded. Former Senate candidate Dan Webster might have been an establishment favorite if he entered the race sooner, but now businessman Bruce O'Donoghue has built up significant name recognition, attorney and talk radio guy Todd Long has commissioned polls that show him leading. Official TEA Party candidate Peg Dunmire has also severely muddied the waters, and is strengthening cred with the far right despite people trying to tie her to Grayson.

It may not be as hard as people think for Republicans to pull constituencies back together after a tough August primary. But it will be hard for an individual candidate to bring together financing. That is probably why the NRCC decision to target this district means so much right now. But I expect the Democrats will toss a good deal of dough into this on Grayson's behalf. Money should still favor the incumbent, and I think this is a very winnable race.

FL-08: Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)

FL-08: Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)

Growing up in this area of Florida, I never expected to see a Democrat represent the 8th, so it isn't surprising to me that the Republicans, upset at Ric Keller's defeat in '08, would want this seat back. They seem to have a good line-up of candidates vying for the race, but Grayson in two short years has set himself up as the newest star of the liberal movement. He has embarked on massive promotional and fund-raising efforts which have turned him into a national figure, and as such, he will be difficult to beat.

Bottom line? Grayson is sitting on $1.4 million in cash on hand. That could fund a Senate race. Of course, the right would love to pick him off too, and plenty of dough has been split among the Republican challengers. But a late primary benefits Grayson tremendously. It remains unclear who the GOP challenger will be in this race, and whether the party will be able to coalesce around that candidate in two short months.

The best choice is probably retired state Sen. Dan Webster, a former state Speaker and an historically-celebrated leader among Florida conservatives. But thanks to a late entry and divided loyalties, Webster has only about $165,000 in the bank. Businessman Bruce O'Donoghue, in contrast, has almost $300,000. Two other Republicans - Kurt Kelly and William Todd Long - have more than $100,000 cash on hand, which likely won't make them top-tier but will be enough to muddle the race more.

In short, Grayson should be a favorite for re-election as things stand today. The ultimate GOP nominee will have a lot of work in front of them to make this competitive, but that is far from impossible.

Is Grayson Propping the Tea Party?

Update: The Orlando Tea Party informs me Guetzloe was appointed to a Small Business Regulatory Council.

Connections between Florida Tea Party co-founder Doug Guetzloe and liberal behemoth Alan Grayson make the question an enticing one, but ultimately I think conservatives are wasting their efforts making aconnection. Though if they want this election to be about political process, fine by me.

Just so liberals aren't frightened by this, there is no philosophical connection between Rep. Grayson, D-Orlando, and the official Florida Tea Party. Rather, this is a question of whether he engages in what Richard Nixon called "ratfucking." That is, is Grayson meddling in opposition campaigning to ease his own path to re-election? TPM did some research after connections between Grayson and the Tea Party made news last week.

To tell the truth, most of this seems innocuous. Grayson hired conservative pollster Victoria Torres early this year, and she has since filed as a Tea Party candidate. But considering Grayson spent a good portion of his time in the first quarter trying to demonstrate his across-the-aisle popularity, that isn't surprising. Check out this March press release where Grayson touts he is more popular that Charlie Crist among GOP voters. Demonstrating this sort of broad appeal is important for Grayson, who beat out incumbent Ric Keller two years ago in a seat drawn for conservatives to win. Cook Political Report still lists the race as a toss-up, and while Grayson can raise a lot of money raging as a Congressman with Guts, he also needs to prove to party leaders he can win re-election and take a good share of moderate voters.

The biggest issue I see with Grayson, though, was reported by the Orlando Sentinel. Excerpt below:

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Grayson appointed Guetzloe to a small-business advisory council, advertised on his conservative radio show and gave his son an internship in his congressional office.

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The advertising doesn't bother me at all. Democrats frequently buy ad time on conservative shows and stations, and Republicans do the same on liberal radio. Truth is that politically engaged voters are worth reaching out to regardless of persuasion. Indeed, there is as likely as not an ad for Marco Rubio on this website right now.

But I can't figure why Grayson would be taking business regulation advice from a guy who put his own weight behind making an official Tea Party political party in Florida. And I don't know why he would want the son of a conservative political operative working in his office, even as an intern. Now, the term 'intern' can include a lot of things. It wouldn't be unusual for a aspiring young Republican to have an internship in a Democratic congressman's office. Elected officials typically like getting young people engaged. An internship wouldn't shape policy, but could do a lot of clerical work while observing the nuts and bolts of operating a Congressional office. What is unusual here is that this intern was the son of a conservative radio host, not just a kid from the Eustis High School Republican Club. I would like to know more about this.

Of course, no one has made a connection to date between Grayson and Peg Dunmire, the Tea Party candidate challenging Grayson in the race for District 8. The only benefit Grayson gets directly from the existence of an official Tea Party is an opponent who will help split the conservative vote in November. Unless he did something which directly got her on the ballot, I don't think he could be fingered in any real meddling.

Certainly, though, any right-winger who wants to unseat Grayson is wiser running as a Republican, even if the Republican field is already so full. Dan Webster and Bruce O'Donoghue are duking it out in the Republican primary, with Dan Fanelli has won some attention for zany racist ads as well. But while the GOP has a crowded field, there can be only one Republican nominee, and whoever that is will have an easier time ousting Grayson without a Tea Party candidate on the November ballot as well.

But at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter whether Grayson is really propping up the Tea Party so he can coast to re-election. Nothing about that is illegal, just a little shady. The real question is whether it will all work. And right now, Grayson seems poised for re-election in what should be among the toughest races in the nation. That doesn't make him guilty of an evil plot. It makes him the beneficiary of one.

Joe Garcia and hope for Florida Democrats

A new poll showing a lead for Democrat Joe Garcia in Florida's 25th is already garnering significant attention in the blogosphere, but it also makes me wonder if Florida, in an astonishing twist of fate, could be a significant bright light for Democrats nationwide in a year when the punditocracy predicts losses for the party. Indeed, I think some of the top prognosticators in Washington should probably take a closer look at their Sunshine State predictions right now because I think Democrats almost surely will grow its share of the state delegation.

The poll getting attention shows a 38-35 race between Garcia and Republican David Rivera. Admittedly this is an internal DCCC poll and has a lot of voters still in the undecided column. But there is no question this race is at worst a toss-up, and one where things are trending toward blue. This has potential to be a significant pickup for the Dems in 2010.

As background, this seat is held now by Republican Mario Diaz-Balart, who is fleeing east to run for his brother Lincoln's open seat. This alone should show the direction the district is trending. The incumbent held onto this seat with 53 percent of the vote in 2008 despite a serious challenge from Garcia and a strong tide in favor of Democrats during a year when Barack Obama won Florida's electoral votes. The fact a sitting Congressman, who hand-drew this seat in 2002 as chairman of the House redistricting committee, would rather flee than face re-election should be a sign the seat is up for grabs. Some things were working in Diaz-Balart's favor two years ago, most notably a close relationship with Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Shultz, a Democrat heading up the national push for Democrats to win seats who was reluctant to attack a South Florida colleague. Mario obviously fears Garcia will go after him more aggressively this year, and that he stands a better chance of keeping his job if voters in the 21st mistake him for Lincoln.

But the shady seat shuffling leaves a bad taste in the mouths of 25th District voters. And bad news about Rivera, the GOP frontrunner, had been about the only news in the race. A Tallahassee home he co-owned with Marco Rubio was in foreclosure proceedings this week until Rubio settled with the bank, and thanks to Rubio's high-profile in the Senate race, the story got billing in every political news outlet around. Rivera has also been flopping around on the Arizona immigration law, and his campaign filings have drawn fire. And like so many foolish Republican politicians, he adopted an unfortunate position in favor of offshore drilling a couple years before the Deepwater Horizon disaster. If Garcia is winning the race today, the headlines only have the potential of boosting his lead. Yet Cook Political Report still has this as a "Likely Republican" hold, as does CQ Politics, but I think that demands further review.

Honestly, I think both of those maps have statewide problems. They list Rep. Alan Grayson's seat as a toss-up, which early in the season was understandable but is questionable now. I was stunned two years ago when the Democrat upset Ric Keller, and it seemed voters in such conservative areas as Lake County would want blood. But the presence of a Tea Party candidate in the general and a battle for the Republican nomination seem to be fracturing opposition and paving the way for a Grayson victory party.

The other race in Florida that the nationals are watching is Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in the 24th. Like Diaz-Balart's district, this was hand-drawn by Republicans in 2002, but it has already been lost by the GOP. Kosmas, a Democrat, defeated ex-state House Speaker Tom Feeney there in 2008. And while a Democratic wave and Feeney's own issues surely helped, she won 57 percent of the vote. That is a bigger margin than Bill Posey won during in his inaugural bid in the 15th, just to the South, yet CQ lists Posey's seat as a "Safe Republican" hold. Challenging Kosmas for the Republicans are running Craig Miller, the ousted former CEO of Ruth's Steak House. Unless Kosmas gets embroiled in an unexpected scandal, I expect this to go our way.

Every other incumbent Congressman in Florida is probably safe for re-election, but the only one of them Cook even lists as a leaner is the 2nd, where Democrat Allen Boyd won re-election in a Republican leaning district in 2008 with 62 percent of the vote, even as McCain took the district by 9 points. Should Boyd retire or get hit by a truck, we may have problems with the Panhandle district, but he has held that seat for 14 years, and will continue to do so until he is ready to go.

By my math, that means the Democrats will pick up a seat in the Congressional delegation. And we probably will have a Senator who caucuses with the Dems as well. That should make this a fantastic year for Democrats, in a swing state no less, and that should significantly disrupt a narrative about Democrats facing hard times this year.

The Power of the Map

Florida seems the perennial swing state in every presidential election. Yet the Legislature is dominated by GOP lawmakers, and Republicans far outnumber Democrats within the Congressional delegation. The reason? The GOP drew the map for all state House and Senate districts, as well as every Congressional seat in the Sunshine state. How did that happen? And why is it important this year? Because the once-a-decade reapportionment season is upon us, and whoever wins the gubernatorial race will likely determine whether there are 10 more years of GOP domination in Florida or if the Democrats have a fighting chance at fair representation.

While most people are aware of the Census conducted by the federal government at the beginning of each decade, few realize the political ramifications once people get counted. Among other things, the legislatures of every state get to work drawing districts of roughly the same population for whatever offices for which that in necessary. In Florida, that means redrawing 120 state House districts, 40 state Senate districts and however many Congressional districts the Feds say are appropriate. After the 1990 and 2000 censuses (censi?), Florida picked up a total of six Congressional seats, substantially raising both Florida's electoral influence and the political stakes of redistricting.

In 1990, the Democrats controlled the Legislature under Gov. Lawton Chiles, and of course drew a map that was favorable to the left. But before the decade was out, Republicans joined forces with the NAACP and filed a lawsuit demanding the courts gerrymander districts and increase minority representation.

I'm sorry, I don't know if that sunk in with everybody out there. Let me say it again. Republicans joined forces with the NAACP and filed a lawsuit demanding the courts gerrymander districts to increase minority representation.

That makes no sense, you say? But it does. Blacks were historically under-represented in Florida, so the NAACP saw an opportunity challenging the maps in Florida to get seats drawn with majority-minority constituencies. The result of such gerrymandering, though, is that reliable Democratic voters get siphoned into specific districts. This gave us Congressmen like Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, and it cost us dearly in terms of Congressional possibilities. Here is an NYT article on the subject from 1990 as suits in a number of states were being prepared, in case you don't believe me.

Over the course of the decade in Florida, Republicans gradually took a majority of seats in the state House and Senate. In 1998, they finally won majorities of both chambers. Then in 2000, just as term limits were for the first time forcing many entrenched incumbents into retirement, the margins for the GOP rose to astonishing levels. Jeb Bush also happened to have taken the Governor's Mansion, so the GOP was free for the first time in decades to draw a legislative map to their liking with no fear of a veto. Seats previously drawn for Democratic lawmakers, such as the one held by now-Florida Democratic Party chairwoman Karen Thurman, were redrawn so Republicans could win them. Other seats were custom fit for lawmakers, such as a Central Florida seat which happened to be stretched in a way to contain then-House Speaker Tom Feeney's home.

Technology also allowed micro-reapportionment like never before seen. Senators offered amendments presented on floppy disk, and electioneers got into chambers to engineer nearly perfect districts for all lawmakers. Sometimes the Democrats who were in the Legislature seemed complicit in deals, going along with redistricting so long as their own seats were mapped in ways that favored the incumbents. Did the effort go perfectly for the GOP? Of course not. In the Democratic wave two years ago, Rep. Feeney was ousted from his hand-drawn seat by Democrat Suzanne Kosmas. Rep. Ric Keller, a Republican who barely won election into the House in 2000, had a safer seat drawn to protect him, but lost it two years ago to super-liberal Alan Grayson. But it should be noted those two Congressional seats are the only ones Cook Political Report lists as toss-ups in Florida right now, so victory may be fletting.

And for the most part, the map has done good by the GOP, better than they likely deserve. Consider Barack Obama won this state in 2008, and George W. Bush skated by infamously close races in 2000 and 2004 (and yes, that is a very generous assessment of the 2000 election for Dubya). Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson coasted to statewide victory four years ago. Republicans win most statewide offices here, but it is hardly a Republican-only electorate.

And because of this, it is extremely important Alex Sink win the governor's race if Florida Democrats want hope in a plethora of other contests. We can't win the state House or Senate this year, for precisely the map-rigging detailed in this post. Think the Congressional map is skewed? Check out the state House map. The best option we have for oversight on the process is having a Democrat in the Governor's Mansion. It would be the first time in decades that different parties controlled the veto pen and the mapper's quill. The threat of veto hopefully would lead to fair districts, and if not, Sink could override a crooked map as the governor and force lawmakers to give a second go in a special session. If necessary, courts could step in.

Bill McCollum or Rick Scott would let the lawmakers draw out their own fantasy maps, as Jeb Bush did in 2000 and, frankly, as Lawton Chiles did in 1990. If a GOP governor is elected, get used to another decade of minority rule.

Extremists targeting Grayson

There has been much interest in candidates coming out in the District 8 race to challenge Alan Grayson. Not because they seem threatening, but because they seem like such extremists. I wish I could join the 'Look how crazy they are' party, but I find these guys genuinely scary.

For those who don't know, I grew up in Lake County and know Alan Grayson's district quite well. I covered it for the Daily Commercial back when Republican Ric Keller held the seat. I must say I have been stunned as a Congressman attributed as D-Eustis has become the liberal superstar of the class of '08. I wasn't following this race, and was surprised when Keller lost so badly, but figured the whole time we'd get a moderate Democrat from this relatively conservative district.

And that is why these guys scare me. See this video, featured on the front page of Daily Kos today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgdALsV6AmI&feature=player_embedded

That's Dan Fanelli, one of the Republicans looking to take Grayson out. This ad would probably shake up most sensible independent voters, and certainly liberals. I honestly can't recall the last time I saw a video so blatantly racist. Maybe Willie Horton, but this is more overt in so many ways. Really shocking to me is that Fanelli paid to have this produced, and paid for time on TV. Also, whose the Arabic guy and why doesn't he have problems with this?

But I have a feeling this will play well to many voters in the rural portions of this district. When I would bring up racial profiling in Lake County and the problems I had with it, it wasn't uncommon for people to call my thoughts treasonous to my face. Even before 9-11, when I was growing up in the area, people would openly support profiling for blogs. That was in the 1990s.

Now let's talk George Metcalfe, who got the attention of the Rainbow Democratic Club. His issue is with the gays. His Liberty Counsel has fought hard against gay adoption even in some cases where the foster children faced grim alternatives. But what was really notable was when Metcalfe pulled ads in Florida Bar publications that used the word gay as a moderately offensive slur. When moderate right columnist Mike Thomas of the Orlando Sentinel tried to talk to him about this a year ago, Metcalfe wouldn't comment. We'll see how that works moving forward.

He also hails from Leesburg, my home town. MOST of the people I know there never had a problem using the word 'hate' to describe their feelings about homosexuals. I promise gay adoption isn't something that polls well there.

I truly enjoy hearing Grayson do spots on the Bill Maher show and get all this attention from the liberal blogs, but have always worried it would blow up in his face. My family still lives in the Leesburg-Eustis area and tells me he has more support than I realize. I hope that's true, not just because I enjoy him, but because the Republicans seem to have no problem putting up openly bigoted people as the only alternative.

I really hope my remaining colleagues at The Daily Commercial don't shy away from these characters, and from exploring whether these issues are about social conservatism or simple hatred. But I have a sinking feeling these folks will largely get a pass from the local press. Truth is, though, the angry resentment is so strong and vocal in that area, it not only scares reporters from certain subjects, it convinces them that these issues are a legitimate part of public discourse.