McGillicuddy's Screwed-Up Future

I had an interesting experience last week at a political rally I was covering. I bumped into Connie Mack, my congressman and, most likely, the Republican who will challenge Bill Nelson for his Senate seat this year. Why was it strange to see Mack at a presidential candidate rally. The event was for Newt Gingrich and Mack has endorsed Mitt Romney.

And he was making his endorsement known. I asked him if he was traveling with Gingrich, and he was quick to remind, as I had frankly forgotten, that he was backing another guy. But, with the Florida primary days away, he was going from rally to rally, and not just for his guy.

Mack was there as a surrogate, someone to grab the attention of gathered reporters and badmouth Newt. I must admit, this created an entertaining scene. Newt Gingrich's field guy freaked out and was interrupting the little press roundup Mack had called at the base of the camera rafters, and Mack was slamming the guest of honor at this crashed party. He started mentioning Freddie Mac out so often you think he was adopting a new pseudonym for the Senate race. But the attacks were good ones.

"My constituents aren't buying this whole historian story," Mack said, a direct attack on Newt Gingrich's contract work with the bank conservatives hate most.

But as this played out, I couldn't help but think, what happens if Newt becomes the nominee? I imagine there will be some awkward bus rides next October.

For those who haven't been to a presidential campaign, know that every candidate for statewide office at the same time can have their calendar disrupted by their nominee's schedulers at any time. Every moment that Al Gore or George Bush was in Florida in 2000 before the election, Bill Nelson or Bill McCollum respectively were by their sides. It actually becomes a big story when Senate candidates won't make time for the bigger names, the way then gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist didn't really want to be seen with an unpopular George W. Bush in 2006.

So will Connie Mack be ready for long car rides from Miami to Orlando this October. Can he with any credibility announce Newt Gingrich as the "next president of the United States" as he introduces his party nominee?

If Romney wins Florida tomorrow, it may be a moot point. Mack's best hope, of course, is that he bet on the right horse, and the other horses will all go lame quickly. But unlike a lot of the candidates campaigning for presidential hopefuls, or even just endorsing them with non-confrontational and positive statements, there is a lot more at risk for Mack than the average flak.

Which just makes me hope more gleefully than ever that Gingrich is the nominee. If that happens, it's time to buy stock in popcorn.

Mr. McGillicuddy Flip Flops

My own Congressman has entered the US Senate race, the one he said he wouldn't enter a few months ago during a clearly botched unroll on the same courthouse steps where his father announced a successful campaign.

Connie Mack may now be the frontrunner in the race to lose to Bill Nelson next year, but I am sure the piranhas already in the tank will take every piece of him they can. Does a known adulterer have much to fear when the ops teams go nuclear? I think we all know that. Expect a stream of news about bar fights, nepotism and bizarre votes on issues sure to offend the right, the left and everyone in between. That's what you get for having a legislative record and the maturity of a 12-year-old boy.

The biggest news in this to me, of course, is that Mack's House seat is in play. Today, it isn't too much of a swing district, but that seems likely to change as the redistricting process plays out. It will really depend on whether the Legislature wants to keep scandal-prone David Rivera's seat in the red column. We will see some early entries within days, but the viability of an interesting race will be determined this spring.

The Republican field in the 14th is already significant, including former Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp, state Reps. Gary Aubuchon and Dudley Goodlette and a number of smaller office candidates who could make a difference depending on where the district lines fall.

Is This The Best They Got?

When I read other blogs, I wonder if I should be writing more about Mike Haridopolos. His recent disastrous performance on the Ray Junior show has made him the subject of endless political mockery once again. He is hated as much by members of his own party as he is by any other group, and the aspects of corruption with his book deal with Brevard Community College have been overshadowed with the laughable factor the book was so bad it was not broadly released.

Despite all of this, he seems to be the frontrunner against incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson. Simply amazing.

Sometimes, one wonders what type of magic elixir Bill Nelson consumed as a young lawmaker to make his Senate career so fortuitous. When he ran in 2000, he was blessed when Republican leadership interfered with an interesting primary that year and made sure Bill McCollum got the nod with very little vetting, and subsequently allowed Nelson to sit back and watch a politician with legendary poor charisma brag about the Clinton impeachments. Despite the historically close presidential election results that year, Nelson destroyed McCollum at the polls.

Six years later, Republican interference couldn't stop Katherine Harris from becoming the nominee. The controversial and polarizing candidate was always a longshot to win a general election, but when it became clear 2006 would be a Democratic wave year, it seemed even the strident Harris gave up on the race, doing few events and eventually succumbing to Nelson in that race.

Right now, it seems 2012 is going to end up another easy re-election battle for Nelson. That isn't to say he shouldn't be stocking up for war. Who thought two years out that Ron Klein would lose to Wild Wild West?

But Haridopolos is an utter joke, and if he becomes the nominee, he will be the least serious candidate for U.S. Senate I have seen in my lifetime. Who will stop him? I read that conservatives like Adam Hasner, but a term as Republican leader in the Florida House is neither a great way to build a resume or to develop any significant name recognition statewide. It is a way to get some skeletons in your closet which will come out the second he seems like a serious candidate. For example...

Who else will run? It seems amazing in a state where politics are so incredibly dominated by the GOP that noone wants to challenge Nelson during a presidential year. The GOP National Convention is being held in Tampa next year, and the GOP knows it can only beat Obama if they win in Florida. If they don't have a goos Senate candidate, that will be very hard to do.

There are no other statewide offices up for grabs in 2012, but no Cabinet members seem interested in running. The governor has shown no interest, and probably isn't going to be in a good place to make such a run in 2012 anyhow. So what is it?

I think people know that the next election cycle is going to go our way. They don't say so out loud, but the lackluster list of candidates for President is as good a demonstration as any. Any GOP candidates in Florida with serious ambitions for serving Florida knows they have a better shot at getting stuff done in a state office right now, then considering a run for Washington in the future. All of Florida's Republican Congressman are probably pretty confident the redistricting process will make re-election to the House easy, while running statewide is undeniably hard.

And so, somehow, Sen. Bill Nelson seems likely once again to coast, and Mike Haridopolos seems ready for two years of ridicule.

Rubio Staying Put

Sorry Tea Partiers. Marco Rubio isn't ready to ditch his new job yet. At least that is what he told ABC News:

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"I am not running for president in 2012."
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Exciting stuff.

Of course, this interview makes a lot of what I expected to be an easy-to-predict approach to his new job. Rubio is playing the role of junior Senator from Florida. Shock!

The tease also makes a big deal that Rubio won't rule out running for VP. Well, of course not. But let me note that you don't run for vice president. Your party's nominee appoints you to that spot on the ballot. And until we know who the Republican nominee for president in 2012 is going to be, speculation on this is nuts.

Stupid Pol of the Week: Installment 2

I have a funny feeling this gentleman will win this award frequency. The respected Senate President from Merritt Island caught heat last week for putting off an ethics bill, which seemed particularly unsmooth for a politician drowning in ethics violations.

Congratulations Mike Haridopolos. You are the Rantings From Florida Stupid Pol of the week.

http://www.flsenate.gov/userContent/Senators/2010-2012/photos/s026.jpg

Of course, having leadership get in the way of an ethics bill is stupid at any point, but what makes President Mike's public mishandling of this situation so bad is that he is the only high-profile candidate currently running against Bill Nelson for U.S. Senate. Note I say high-profile, not serious. This man cannot stop a GOP-dominated Legislature from blasting him apart in public week after week, so imagine when an incumbent Democratic Senator takes to the airwaves on this sorry excuse for a politician.

Most of Florida doesn't know who Mike Haridopolos is. When they decide to learn and google this man's name, posts like this are all that will come up. The Senate run is a fool's errand, and Haridopolos is the fool.

Why Haridopolos Is Not a Serious Candidate

Since Mike Haridopolos is the only significant name so far to announce a challenge against Sen. Bill Nelson, media and bloggers inevitably treat him with a level of seriousness. It is unwarranted. Here is why, via the St. Pete Times:

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For the first time anyone can remember, a Florida Senate president was admonished by his own Senate in the first week of session for breaking ethics rules — specifically failing to fully and accurately detail his finances as required by the state Constitution.
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Folks. The Republican-doninated state Senate would not do this if they felt this guy had a shot in the dark at joining the ranks of the U.S. Senate. Heck, they let David Rivera lie on his financials for years and never bothered with this sort of censure. Sure, John Thrasher went to lengths to avoid naming Haridopolos, calling the Senate president only the "senator from the 26th," but this sort of black eye derails a lot of efforts to boost positive name recognition for Mikey, and it does it at the start of the session, when Haridopolos is prohibited from much real campaigning for a couple months.

There are many other reasons why Haridopolos is not a great bet to beat Nelson. His Merritt Island district is so close to Nelson's Melborne base. The name recognition of state legislators is poor statewide, even for leadership. He has a super-long and hard-to-spell last name. And so far, he hasn't been very good at holding his own caucus together during some high-profile kerfuffles with the governor.

Give this guy a couple months of session screw-ups and we will forget he ever was in the game at all.

Do We Save Or Deny the Everglades

For those wondering why so little has appeared on this blog the last week, I got to spend most of last week in the Everglades chaperoning a class camping trip with my son. It was a great experience all around, but I wanted to share some political observations, and mirror those with the sad political reality we live in here in the Sunshine State.

Climate change is so very real. Any fool official who believes otherwise should spend a few days sleeping in the Everglades themselves. Perhaps it is easy to believe there are no problems with our water supply as long as the water still turns off in the Governor's mansion, but it was abundantly clear as we slogged through the slough of the Big Cypress National Preserve. The ranger who led us through our slog told us water levels had dropped about a foot in a week from the last time she was in the same part of the marsh. That's an astonishing rate.

Indeed, this is the driest year for the Everglades in the past 80 years. It is throwing the wildlife off terribly, with apple snails laying their eggs so far above the water marks the babies are unlikely to hatch (think about that pro-lifers). More water ought to be released by water districts into the Glades to help keep them wet, but that is only a short-term answer. Really, there needs to be a greater urgency placed on restoration projects to divert more natural waterflow back into the Glades. Since the marshes today are only between 10 and 20 percent the size they were a century ago, that really shouldn't be such a sacrifice for developed Florida to make.

Sadly, Florida has not been electing leaders of late who even believe mankind has had any effect on the environment. Gov. Rick Scott made it very clear early in the election cycle that he does not believe in climate change. Sen. Marco Rubio believes the same way. In fact, none of the Republicans elected to the US Senate last year believe in climate change.

It has become an ideological position to say "I don't believe in global warming." Politicians spout it as if proving they figured out Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy weren't real (spoiler alert!). It feeds into the stance that liberals are all liars who only secretly want to fund the multi-million industry that is promoting the global warming hoax. Not that the multi-billion industry that is destroying the environment has any reason to cook the numbers, but hey, they are good people, and the rangers leading school groups through the Everglades are obviously part of some left-wing conspiracy.

It astounds me how much traction denying global warming has found among people with no financial stake in denying global warming. But the term is admittedly bad branding. While not inaccurate (the earth has consistently risen in its global temperature year after year), it focuses attention on one narrow part of the problem and gives the deniers too great an opportunity to cling to their disbelief every time it gets cold enough to put on a coat.

But to deny mankind has had any effect on the environment? That is just dangerous, foolish and uneducated. I do not believe Rubio, Scott and their ilk are near as stupid as they would have me believe, so that leaves simply that they are sacrificing the well-being of Florida to satisfy big donors and score cheap political points with the knuckle-dragging crowd who try to disprove evolution by acting in ways so moronic it makes one wonder how the survival of the fittest could grant them immunity from harm.

Let me repeat, this is the driest season the Everglades has seen in 80 years. The water levels continue to drop year after year. There is no dispute - none - that this is a result of anything besides mankind's effect on the environment. And those who believe the environment is worth saving are ever to have any success at all in the political arena, something in messaging needs to change.

I do not know why every politician looking to nullify the Republican Party's successes isn't filming spots in the Everglades right now. I don't know why we don't see political advertisements quoting NASA astronauts explaining that water levels worldwide are going down at the same levels we see in Florida, and that they can see the change as the ride in the shuttles Republicans so badly want to keep in orbit. I don't know why campaign spots do not park rangers as frequently as they do law enforcement officers and television celebrities.

But for those living in Florida, the evidence of climate change is visible in every inch of the Everglades. And to let politicians who do not believe in it win the political discourse of today is evidence that we are all doomed.

It's Here Already. 2012 Polling

Before Kendrick Meek's body was even cold, we apparently are ready fro a new election cycle. Quinnipiac has done its first big peek at the electoral prospects for 2012.

The news? A mixed bag no matter who you are rooting for in two years. Sen. Bill Nelson has a 45 percent approval rating, better than newbie Marco Rubio but a good bit under the 50-percent thresholds where most incumbents want to be facing re-election.

Barack Obama isn't doing so hot either, with 48 percent of voters saying he doesn't deserve to win re-election and 45 percent saying he does. Against a generic Republican (and generics always do better than actual, named candidates), the president loses Florida by two percent.

On Kos today, Steve Singiser suggested this might be good news for the president. But I say good news is winning and bad news is losing. Sure, the president isn't at his zenith in popularity, and the state just elected a treasure trove of Republicans this cycle, whereas next cycle almost has to go better. But then again, it might not, and how well it goes depends almost completely on Barack Obama.

Supporters of the Democratic Party learned a long time ago that the state party can't deliver big results. It focuses too much on headline races, can't manage the narrative and never puts together a big enough bench. But at least we have two big hitters. Nelson can offer his own coattails in addition to the ones provided by the president, and the two can help one another.

I think Obama will be re-elected, but it won't be a cakewalk. At least not here. I am heartened by the fact Florida has not voted against a president seeking re-election since 1980, and hasn't voted out a senator since 1986.

This isn't in the bag for anyone, though.

Rubio Part of CPAC Boycott

Not that it has anything to do with a gay group being there. But Marco Rubio is sitting out the right-wing convention that made him a star.

Roll Call is reporting that Rubio will skip CPAC this year. Which is funny, since the American Conservative Union still has the senator's picture on its banner ads. In case it "disappears," here it is.

Readers of this blog probably notice Allen West also appears on the banner ad, and for now, it appears he is still set to speak at the event.

This whole CPAC boycott is just amusing to watch for liberals. The notion the tea party, apparently unsatiated by simply devouring the Republican, is apparently eating itself now just serves up a side of irony for spectators to enjoy.

But let's see how a little bit of perceived homophobia treats a Senator who hails from South Florida. I suspect America is moving much faster to the left on gay rights issues than many of these wingers realize, and Rubio is following the tea-partiers toward certain doom.

I thin more savvy politicians realize this. Sarah Palin, who seemed to Twitter-flirt with supporting a Don't Ask Don't Tell repeal earlier this month, will attend CPAC this year, despite NOT appearing on that banner ad above. Update: Palin has now declined a keynote speaker spot, but SarahPAC will still be at the event.

The GOP, which is supposed to be the party of personal freedom, really needs to find its footing on gay issues. But if this CPAC brouhaha is any sign, the party as a whole seems to be moving closer to the party-of-hate brand than it is away from it.

Dear Tea Party. It Was Fun, But...

Dear Tea Party,

I don't know how to say this, but I don't think I can continue our relationship at this point in my life. I wanted to tell you in person, but didn't have the courage to attend your caucus, so I have to say goodbye here.

It isn't you. Heck, you supported me when no one else thought I would amount to anything. Back when Senate Republicans were ignoring me, you held me up, and kept alive a campaign which by all convention accounts had no right to exist. Even when everybody seemed to like Charlie Crist more than me, you saw something special in me. Someone who wouldn't "listen to all sides," but would run on the right and against any and everything the Obama White House ever proposed.

And boy did we run. We had some great times: driving Crist from the party, comparing Obama's policies to Communist Cuba, and of course, winning the election.

But right now, I need a little 'Me' time. I just got to Washington, and it turns out you guys aren't nearly as popular in the beltway as you were on the campaign trail. In fact, people here think you are a little weird and scary. I need to make new friends now, and frankly, having you guys hanging around all the time is kind of bringing me down.

Let's not pretend things have been perfect. You really put me on the spot about that whole Arizona law. My folks still think that was really uncool, by the way. It has been obvious since November that this wasn't going to work out. I can't govern as an extremist. I'm a Senator now, and that means I have to work with people on both sides of the aisle. And I run statewide in a purple state. The whole tea party mantel may have worked in a wave year, but I have a future to think about. Does anyone really think people will care about a tea party caucus in 2016?

So like Fergie would say, I've got to get a move on with my life. I've got to be a big Senator now, and big Senators don't cry. But I hope we can still be friends, especially if someone asks me to run for vice president in two years. I don't want things to be too strange when we run into each other at political party events. And even though I know I am hurting you now, and have only been in office less than a month, I hope this doesn't discourage you from sending me checks.

With love and respect (but from a safe political distance), I tell you goodbye.

Sen. Marco Rubio,
The Distinguished Gentleman from Florida

Slapping NASA

I appreciate when officials who are fighting so hard on NASA's behalf also decide to hold their feet to the fire. As I have noted before, the rocket scientists on the Space Coast can get a little noisy. That usually doesn't matter to officials fighting for the program because the squeaky O-ring gets the grease.

But when NASA suggested they can't build rockets on schedule, it pissed off Sens. Bill Nelson and Kay Bailey Hutchison. I am happy to see the two acting with a strong bipartisan voice. But it is noteworthy Nelson is the one spending more political capital here. Hutchison isn't seeking re-election, and while her credibility on this issue is a good thing to have in the debate, Nelson is expected to seek another term in the Senate in 2012.

But he also knows the space program only has credibility with the public if it can work in an efficient manner. When it issues reports suggesting it can't meet its budget and accomplish anything on schedule, that hurts the agency in the eyes of a public that questions all government spending. From the Senators' letter, all of which is available here via 13 News, notes that billions have been spent on the programs at NASA, and that the law requires they get the job done.

From the letter:
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"By building on current capabilities and previous investments, and making effective use of NASA's existing workforce and contracts to focus on the immediate development of a heavy-lift rocket and crew vehicle, NASA can reach initial operating capability much more quickly than it can by conducting another vehicle study."
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The point is that NASA has to operate with the fiscal responsibility the public is demanding of all other facets of government. This is part of the great American paradox in viewpoints. We love the idea of sending rockets into space, but we don't want it to cost anything. Jeff Greenfield once called this the American Ice Cream Sundae Diet.

I have made my views known on this. I want space flight privatized with ports government-run. But those who support complete government-controlled space exploration should demand the agency work within the same constraints as our schools, transportation departments, and military.

Well, not the military. Fiscal conservatives for some reason give them a pass.

Many on the right also give NASA a pass, but that won't last if the program can't finish its work on time and on budget. And support among the public at large is frankly waining every day. And if NASA can't fulfill its promises to the American people, politicians should stop letting those promises be made.

The Astronaut v. The Juggernaut

A new PPP poll is amping up the speculation on whether Jeb Bush runs for Senate in 2012. The poll shows that a whopping 72 percent of Republican voters in Florida would vote for Jeb as the nominee should he run. This comes on the heels of another PPP poll which shows Bush leading incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson 49-44 in a general election matchup.

Of course, it is utterly surprising that Bush should lead the pack. Not only is he consistently popular among conservative Republicans, many of whom long for pre-Crist leadership in Tallahassee, but he is by far the best candidate. The next most popular candidate in the new PPP poll is Bill McCollum, who lost to Bill Nelson in 2000, and more recently to Rick Scott for governor this year.

But the big question remains the same as it ever was. Does Jeb want the job? I have said here before that I don't believe Jeb will be that interested in a job in the Senate. Frankly, I think that still holds true.

Why? Because Jeb Bush, in his his heart of hearts, is an executive. He has little patience for the legislative process, and as governor tended to leave that sort of thing to his lackeys in the state House and Senate. He loves politics, but has a heavy distaste for legislating. In his role today, he gets to engage whenever he wishes in king-making and politicking. Since Marco Rubio, his favored Senate candidate, emerged a star of this election cycle, he maintains a tremendous amount of credibility within conservative ranks despite squishy feelings on immigration and the inescapable problem of having the last name Bush.

What could change his mind? If Jeb Bush is truly the only candidate in the field who can compete with Nelson, that could mean something, but a poll two years out frankly does little to indicate that. All of the politicians currently considering a run will spend the next year raising their profile, and given the right mix of political environment and luck, could beat Nelson. It would be easier for Jeb, no question, but it is not impossible for anyone.

But the flip side is that Jeb could also lose to Nelson. The earlier PPP poll shows Nelson in pretty good shape, able to beat anyone in the field besides Jeb, and only pegged him a few points below the former governor. Add in the mix an incumbent president who will probably spend a lot of time in Florida that year with Nelson by his side, and it becomes hard to underestimate the incumbent. The great backstory for Nelson, a seasoned politician who has been to space and Tallahassee alike, along with a Bob Graham-like record for pleasing everybody some of the time, makes Nelson as good a candidate as ever as he embarks on a third Senate campaign.

The area where Bill Nelson is hurting the most is actually with his Democratic base, and there is already a lot of chatter online about a primary challenge from the left. Should Nelson get booted in the primary, it could change everything, but right now there is no reason to think he would lose such a fight. And having a hard-lefty with less name recognition on the ballot is about the only thing that would make a cakewalk for Jeb.

None of this means Jeb won't run, of course. He would raise more money than anyone else, including the incumbent. I suspect if speculation reaches too high a volume, he will make his intentions known early if only to let the rest of the GOP field campaign in earnest.

But keep in mind that in 2010, Jeb would have run the boards. There would have been no Charlie Crist-Marco Rubio drama because neither would have stayed in that race. Kendrick Meek might still be in the House, knowing a run against Jeb was impossible for a South Florida liberal. That race was really Jeb's to lose, and instead he decided to sit it out.

I seriously doubt that he would take on as big a fight as ousting Bill Nelson to take a job he probably doesn't really want when he passed on a much easier fight for the same trophy just two years prior. This is fun speculating, but until Jeb says different, there is no reason to believe he will enter this race.

A More Admirable Intraparty Dispute

Since I attacked Allen Boyd earlier this week for blaming Nancy Pelosi for November losses, I thought it only appropriate I weigh in on reports of Bill Nelson coming after Barack Obama. But I must say, I have very different view here.

The St. Pete Times is reporting that Florida's senior senator is angry at the White House for its soft approach to a number of very local problems. On his list of beefs are weak support for NASA, the BP claims process and a disappointing home foreclosure program. And I have to say, it is hard to find fault with Nelson's complaints.

The foreclosure program was teased during one of Obama's first town halls, one held in Fort Myers where I was present. At the time, he suggested very strongly that people who were underwater on their homes would be eligible for a new program to help fill that gap between the value of a home and the debt still owed. Problem is that the program, like so many efforts from Washington of late, was aimed at helping banks more than homeowners. An enormous number of underwater homeowners, including myself, couldn't prove they were far enough up crap creek to qualify for help. Those who could get help were in such dire straights it really made more sense to walk away, all associated personal shame aside.

Now, I have made my feelings known about NASA. I understand why Obama is doing what he is doing, but I also understand why Nelson, who has gone into space himself aboard a NASA shuttle, would fight so hard. And from a jobs perspective, it is truly terrible timing to stop shuttle launches when there isn't exactly a lot of opportunity for highly-skilled NASA layoff victims.

Then there is BP. This is a disaster which just won't stop hurting the administration. When Tony Hayward is having more PR success than the White House, something is wrong. The people should still be angry at BP, but they seem to have more lingering frustration with Obama.

So I think Nelson's arguments with the White House are justified. Plus, these are not problems which are antagonistic to progressives, the way Boyd's assault on Pelosi's leadership clearly was. But another thing separates Boyd and Nelson. Boyd only decided to complain after he got his bottom handed to him by voters this month. Nelson is most assuredly making noise now because he is up for re-election in 2012, but he is coming out now in hopes the administration can do something about all this.

The thing is, these problems will become a noose around the neck of a sitting Democratic senator if they can't get fixed in two years. No matter how much Nelson attacks the White House, he will be blamed for their failures, and he knows it.

But so will the White House. Florida will absolutely be a swing state again in 2012, and Obama will be in a far more defensive posture next go-round. He will need this state, whereas it was just gravy two years ago. Nelson's tough love could make a difference not only in his chances for re-election, but in Obama's.

Now we just need the White House to listen.

Charlie Crist, Still Proving Himself Unreliable

An intriguing little blogpost showed up on Politico today from Ben Smith. Apparently Bob Dole, the former GOP presidential candidate, believes Charlie Crist would have caucused with the Republicans in the Senate. Why am I not surprised?

Mind you, I don't believe Crist would have done that. With everything that happened in the past year, and with so much of his support closer to election day coming from Democrats, I believe he would have caucused under Harry Reid instead of Mitch McConnell, this time. Whenever control of the Senate might shift, or even come within a vote or two, Crist would bolt to whoever offered the shiniest chairmanship.

But this bolsters what I have argues for months. Charlie Crist cannot be trusted.

Why does Dole believe Charlie would caucus red? Probably because Charlie told him so.

Why, according to the Wall Street Journal, does John Morgan believe Charlie would caucus blue? Probably because Charlie told him so.

This man should have no political future with either party after this season of duplicitousness.

Don't Expect Nelson-Rubio 'Clash' to Last

This is the sort of headline that will make conservatives giggle with glee, but I expect when things really get moving that Marco Rubio will do little to stop Sen. Bill Nelson from bringing bacon back to Florida.

The headline comes from the Daily Caller: "Rubio, Nelson Already Clash Over Earmarks." But the article simply alludes to statements made on the Hill by the Senator-elect, after a meeting with the senior senator, but Nelson isn't quoted at all. My guess is there is no abnormal tension between these two men. Basic politics will drive them to different public positions on this issue, but neither wants Florida, a state which historically sees far few federal dollars come back compared to the amount which go out, to receive less than its fair share.

It is good politics for Rubio to oppose earmarks. Everyone loves a good government waste story about a $600 toilet seat or a study on the flow of ketchup. That is why Rubio has gone so far as to promise co-sponsorship of a Jim DeMint ban on the practice of barreling pork.

But the truth is, earmarks constitute a tiny part of the federal budget, about one-fifth of one percent according to this ABC report. So it actually will do very little in terms of deficit reduction, or even the feel-good "cut government spending" rhetoric that right-of-center voters eat up like leftover Halloween candy. Plus, the Republicans in the Senate are still in the minority.

Nelson, of course, is not going to pick this cycle of all cycles to abandon Florida earmarks. He is up for re-election in 2012, and may be playing ball in as nasty an environment as he's had to play since 2000. The man wants every project funded, every ribbon cut, every roadway opened to stand as a "Re-Elect Bill Nelson" billboard in the minds of the voters who benefit the most.

The question then is whether Rubio will do anything to undermine Nelson. Of course, there is a old-school rule that incumbents in Florida's Congressional delegation won't campaign on behalf of efforts to unseat other incumbents. Of course, Bill Nelson may be more responsible than anyone for that pact falling apart. Ric Keller in 2002 was expressing irritation the senator was donating money to potential challengers for his seat, and by 2008, Nelson was openly campaigning to unseat GOP House members in Florida.

So maybe Rubio will join efforts to replace Nelson with a Republican, but I doubt standing in the way of transportation projects and performing arts hall grants will be his approach. This little get-together on the Hill is no sign of a deep clash. Rubio has been in legislative bodies before. He is smart enough to know not to pick a fight with a more powerful senator representing his same constituency before even getting sworn in.

10 Things Florida Voters Taught Me Last Night

1. Alan Grayson's antics are too outrageous for Congress. Allen West, totally acceptable.

2. It's OK to rack up historic fraud fines as long as your mother loves you enough to cut an ad.

3. The Florida Democratic Party will never get its act together.

4. While liberals argue about the proper way to elect Marco Rubio, Republicans just voted for Marco Rubio. Their way works better.

5. Lying on your financial disclosures, running a tuck of nasty mailers off the road and calling your opponent a henchman of Castro is no big deal as long as you are Republican.

6. Receiving a text message is a fireable offense as long as you are a Democrat.

7. Being a conservative Democrat in a moderate district doesn't make sense anymore. Granted, being a liberal in a moderate district didn't help much either.

8. I should have hated Allen Boyd. Then this morning would be a little easier.

9. Floridians still vote right on most amendments even when they vote wrong on most candidates.

10. This sucks.

It's Election Night in Florida

Update 2: It's a new day in Florida, and a lousy one. Yes, we lost every race I was following. Every stinkin' one. Florida elected criminals, torturers and zealots. So my predictions below seem particular naive today. On the bright side, this blog might have been really boring for the next year or so had this crazy cast of teabaggers just drooped away into the night, so stay tuned, and keep following these rantings.

Update: I forgot to put this on but the amendment fight looks to be heading in a pretty specific direction right now. Only 2 (the military tax exemption), 5 and 6 (Fair Districts) are on the road to passage. The Hometown Democracy, Public Finance repeal and Class-Size revision are all well south of 60 percent right now.

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... and everywhere else, I know. Still, I thought I would once again do some live-blogging of just the most important races in the Sunshine State. I have posted my hopes, dreams, and pragmatic predictions on the blog already, and will update with results through the evening.

My hope for months has been that the elections will become more localized than the chattering class has predicted. Polls of late have made me doubt in that hope, but I still believe the GOP wave tonight can be ebbed a little bit in Florida.

For the sake of accountability, here are my rosy predictions from a few months ago, when I suggested every incumbent Congressman in Florida would be re-elected. I no longer believe that, but it would be nice. But while most national pundits believe our three most endangered Congressmen - Grayson, Boyd and Kosmas - all go down, I believe at least one, maybe two, will live through the night. The Senate race is gone, but we should be able to take the Governor's mansion, and maybe even one of the other Cabinet posts.

Links to my race-by-race posts are below:

FL-Sen: Meek-Rubio-Crist

FL-Gov: Sink-Scott

FL-02: Boyd-Southerland

FL-08: Grayson-Webster

FL-12: Edwards-Ross

FL-10: Justice-Young

FL-22: Klein-West

FL-24: Kosmas-Adams

FL-25: Garcia-Rivera

FL-Cabinet: Gelber-Bondi, Maddox-Putnam, Atwater-Ausley

FL-Sen: Meek-Rubio-Crist

Update 2: Rubio is on TV now claiming victory. I'm curious to know if he broke 50 or not, but that's about all left to learn about this disaster.

Update: Right now it seems like Marco Rubio is going to win with more than 50 percent of the vote. If that sticks, I guess the great Crist or Meek debate is moot.

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If you trust the polls, this is all but over. Rubio will win in a blowout, with Crist in second and Meek in third.

I have made my feelings abundantly known. There will be no deathbed conversion for me. I vote proudly for Meek.

And while it gives me no pleasure to see Marco Rubio prep for the Senate, I revel in watching Crist's poor strategizing and constant double-crossing of values blow up in his face.

Sorry, Charlie.

Once Again, Why Meek Must Continue On

Based on the reporting being done all over the state and in Washington, D.C., it now seems apparent to me that Bill Clinton did at least broach the topic of Meek dropping out, and that Meek absolutely will not do it.

I have spent much of the last six months trying to tell progressives why they should vote for Meek and ignore Charlie Crist. I don't think I have been nearly successful enough in that endeavor, but it is clear to me now the major focus needs to be on the Democratic establishment demonstrating its support for Meek. I will lay out my reasoning below.

1. Kendrick Meek is the qualified nominee. He won a difficult and sometimes uncertain primary against Jeff Greene, and a lot of supporters weathered some heavy criticism at the time. The battle was viewed by many, including myself, felt the credibility of all Florida Democrats was on the line. The better candidate won out, and he has an obligation to carry the standard through election day.

2. This will hurt the entire party with black voters. I have argued in recent days how frustrating it is to see national Democrats rally around the very fresh-faced Scott McAdams in a three-way race in Alaska. It has occurred to me, probably wrongly, that the "demographic appeal" of one of those men may be playing into the choices. Most low-info voters don't follow all the national blogs, but I guarantee it will suppress black turnout in Florida if Democratic leaders turn their back on the first credible candidate for the Senate from Florida since reconstruction. Now, I am by no means saying, as Smooth Like Remy once said of a Kos interpretation, that "the only use Democrats have for Meek is to get the n--- out to vote for Alex Sink." Far from it. But betraying the entire African-American community in Florida isn't good for the Democrats short-term or long-term.

3. Coattails. Some may argue that with Meek polling at 15 that this doesn't matter much. But the Senate race is the TOP item on the ballot this year. There are voters who come out specifically for Meek, and almost all of them are likely to vote for Democrats in every other state office. That doesn't just include the highly-important governor's race, but races for Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner and Chief Financial Officer. There are also six or seven vital Congressional races in Florida this year where turnout is going to be what determines if we win or lose. And for goodness sake, if the DCCC is reserving ad time for Allen Boyd right now, national Democrats can at least pretend they want a Democrat running for Senate to win this race. That will help Boyd too.

4. This is an offense race for us. With all the hyperbole about how awful it would be for Rubio to be the next Senator, we tend to forget this is a seat the Republicans are defending. This isn't like races in West Virginia or Illinois where seats held today by Democrats are at risk of flipping to the other side. If you don't think Meek can win this race, just focus on another race then. Don't sabotage an outstanding, progressive Congressman's political career by throwing him under a political bus to make way for a value-less, disloyal hack like Charlie Crist.

5. When this whole fiasco got underway in April, I did suspect Crist could win, but he blew it by going exclusively for the left-wing vote. He was running like a Democrat, but was too cowardly to jump into the Democratic primary. That is what has all but won Marco Rubio this Senate seat. Rewarding that sort of behavior is not the way to set up a future where Democrats are taken seriously by Florida voters.

I'm under no delusions right now. I am casting my vote for Kendrick Meek because it is the right thing to do, not because I still believe he can win. I do think he could have taken this race if not for the meddling of Charlie Crist.

Why I'd Rather Lose to Rubio Than Win with Crist

As the sad reality of the polls sinks in for Meek supporters like myself, I realize many are pondering more seriously than ever whether they should jump ship and vote for Crist as the lesser of two evils. I cannot do so. Why? Three major reasons:

1. Rubio doesn't scare me.

2. Crist cannot be trusted.

3. Meek is still the best candidate in this race.

Now, the longer version.

For all the talk about the energy he has brought to politics, Marco Rubio is not a public official who inspires a broad group of voters. His world is one large tea party, and he only has a shot right now because of the odd dynamics of the race this year. I have seen one poll, and it was a Razzie so buyer beware, that showed Rubio at 50 percent, the normal threshold for a race. Since he is on course to win, it's easy to forget he is doing far more poorly in polls than either Alex Sink or Rick Scott in the governor's race.

That doesn't matter, I know. As I've said since I started the blog, it doesn't take much to win a three-man race like this. Someone with 40 percent is likely the landslide victor. But what do they win? With Rubio, not that much.

Rubio will be the junior senator from Florida, and a member of what is almost surely the minority caucus. The odds of the GOP taking the Senate are much lower than of them overthrowing the House. So Rubio would go to Washington with a party that is out of power, in the back of the line for any decent chairmanships, and still bears the mark of a usurper he drove Washington's hand-picked candidate out of the party. He will be there for six years, but if he spends that time boosting big oil and advocating for corporations ahead of the people, the majority of voters who in November will likely vote for someone besides Rubio are going to be ready to take the seat back for the people.

I see many out there concerned Rubio will serve as a good running mate on the GOP 2012 ticket. Folks, someone is going to run against Barack Obama in 2012. The GOP will try to put up the best they have. It is up to the president to beat out the best they have. If Rubio is the most they can muster, I'm no more worried about the president's re-election chances than I ever have been, and I haven't ever been that worried.

Now, as for Charlie, I think it is very easy for people outside Florida, or people who haven't been at all engaged in Florida politics for a long time, to forget that Charlie Crist is crazy, selfish and stupid. I wish they could see the signs on display today, but I have beaten the drums on recent issues enough. Perhaps people need some history.

This isn't the first time Crist has run for the Senate. He ran in 1998, back when incumbent Bob Graham was the most popular politician in Florida and the GOP nominee was a standard-bearer making a poetic statement while he waited for some illness to strike the Graham family. Back then, he was a hard-on crime nutjob who advocated eliminating the IRS completely. BTW, this is an interesting debate transcript, where Crist calls on Bill Clinton to resign. Why would a supposedly moderate politician say such extreme things? It served him politically. He was fairly moderate on abortion, but steered further right in coming years on that topic, not further left. For the most part, all of his positions were ones held to excite the right. Tea Party may be a new term, but the right-wing crazies have run things in Republican circles for a while. He danced for them back then, just as tried to until April this year.

It also was advantageous when he supported the FCAT system and vouchers, things which have hurt classroom education significantly but got the Charlie stamp of approval when he was education commissioner. Even just four years ago, his positions on education should have made any believer in public education wince. This man was the last elected Education Commissioner, and the GOP-controlled legislature had so little confidence in Crist's abilities to lead the Education Department that they severely limited his powers in that role.

Crist is an opportunist who has run in every single statewide election cycle since 1998 - once as Education Commissioner, once as Attorney General, once as Governor and twice as Senator. In that period, he has been all over the map on politics. That, more than any difference on environmental legislation, is what drove conservatives nuts about the guy, but just because he drives wingers nuts doesn't mean he is good news for progressives.

Right now, it serves Crist to play to the left. So he vetoes a bill the teachers hate. And he tries to convince us he's pro-choice again. Oh, and he likes gay rights now. The only difference between his shifting of positions now and then is that now, he has made miscalculations politically, and he is losing an election he might have won. If he does pull out victory, he probably will caucus with the Dems, but who knows. If the GOP took the Senate in 2012 or 2014, I am almost certain he would caucus with them. Progressives should not enable this behavior and risk the balance of the Senate on a candidates bathed in inconsistencies.

Meanwhile, Meek is running a meek campaign, but advocating principles which are perfectly in line with what true liberals want out of a Senator. He would be the first progressive representing Florida in the upper chamber since Claude Pepper, and we shouldn't spit at that opportunity. And should he get there, he will hold power.

First off, if Meek won, there would be no way for the GOP to take the Senate. None. So he would be in the majority. Plus, he would be one of few members of the Black Congressional Caucus to ever win a spot among the 100 kings. That would mean major power within that bloc, even though he would be a junior member of the Senate. Meek has more experience in Washington than any candidate in this race, and more experience as a lawmaker than either Crist, a six-year state senator, or Rubio, a former speaker term limited to eight years in the Florida House.

So I'm sticking with Meek. If he goes down in flames, so be it. It's the right thing to do. And more than any other reason, good people's willingness to toss ideals to satisfy short-term political gains is why our political system is broken. I view this as a contest between two genuine candidates: Rubio, whose politics I detest but in which many sincerely believe, and Meek, a qualified and credentialed progressive whom I am proud to support. Crist is a spoiler, an ego-maniac who plays by the rules when he can win by them, then throws out the rulebook when it proves restrictive.

This seems a simple choice to me.