Nationalizing Elections

One thing this election brought home more than perhaps any other point, all politics is not local.

Now, to be sure, the demographics of particular districts will result in different outcomes. Despite a GOP wave, Corrine Brown could coast to re-election this year. And we will likely never get a shot at someone like Jeff Miller. But when it comes to swing districts and toss-up races, it seems now that nothing is more important than the national narrative.

The GOP says Alan Grayson was too liberal for his district, but being conservative didn't help Allen Boyd. And can anyone be more middle-of-the road than Suzanne Kosmas? Does anyone represent the demographic make-up of their district as well as Ron Klein?

No, the other thing Florida's ousted congressmen have in common this year is that they were Democrats in a year when being a Democrat wasn't cool.

Our side benefits from this too. Nobody thought Ric Keller was in serious trouble until weeks before the 2008 election where Grayson took that district. We talk about the Jack Abramoff scandal playing a role in Kosmas' '08 victory, but really, she benefitted most from a national anti-Bush environment and the insurgent Obama candidacy.

Today, Florida has 10 Democratic congressman in a 25-member House delegation. In January, that will drop to 6. Yet, this is clearly still a swing state. The only big difference will be that these four congressman were on the wrong side of a wave.

FL-24: Kosmas-Adams

Update 2: Kosmas has officially thrown in the towel. Looks like neither the Grayson or Kosmas plan worked out. Bummer.

Update: Well, Adams is up by about 20 right now. So much for my hope that one of the the three most at-risk incumbents would survive. Sorry Space Coast.

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It would be foolish to be too optimistic about Kosmas tonight. I hope she wins, and she has picked up the endorsements of every major paper in the district who is naming favorites this year. I hope her fight on behalf of NASA this year earns some loyalty from the space cadets.

Plus, Sandy Adams is kind of loony. But if this is truly a tea party year...

Anyhow, hope for the best and brace for the worst.

Are there Kosmas Polls We Don't See?

The news this week that the DCCC was pulling out of Florida's 24th was widely viewed as a sign that Suzanne Kosmas is toast. The move surprises me, because the race looks neck-and-neck from where I sit. That doesn't mean the conclusions are wrong. It just seems odd to me that the nationals would give up on Kosmas just when it felt like fighting time.

It makes me wonder if there are polls sitting in the DCCC offices to which we aren't privy. That's no surprise of course. Partisans tend to release polls with good news and sit on polls with bad news. But then, Sandy Adams hasn't exactly been issuing repeated polls showing a growing margin. Obviously, if things are tight, I'd rather save Alan Grayson myself, but then, I think we can still win both of these seats.

The last poll released by the NRCC, back on Sept. 28, put Adams 10 points ahead. But the day before,Kosmas put out a poll showing herself up by 7. Since then, its been silence from both camps. Unfortunately, House races don't get polled enough, so its hard to tell what to make of these polls. While internals are treated with skepticism because campaigns are reserved about what they release, candidates still need accurate information on where they stand.

Compare the data to a recent Sunshine State out of Florida's second which shows Steve Southerland trouncing incumbent Allen Boyd 56-30. Now even pessimists have questioned this poll, which gives a couple of also-ran candidates a combined 14 percent of the vote. But nobody in Democratic circles is yet talking about throwing in the towel in the Panhandle seat Boyd holds now.

Maybe it's because Boyd is a long-time incumbent and Kosmas is a freshmen. Maybe they figure Kosmas' seat was hand-drawn for Tom Feeney and we just got jucky two years ago when the Abramoff scandal swallowed Feeney whole. But this whole thing just seems odd.

The thing is, Sandy Adams has been the subject of much negative coverage since winning the GOP primary. Her extremist positions on the 17th amendment and a woman's right to choose make her prone to effective attack ads. When Florida Today endorsed Kosmas, they said Adams "lack of knowledge about NASA is appalling," something which matters a great deal in this space-happy district. And while we're talking endorsements, Kosmas snagged the support of the Republican-leaning Orlando Sentinel as well.

Space Jobs

So the House today made it so we get one more shuttle launch. I hope Suzanne Kosmas uses this to her advantage, but that's about all I can say.

Per the UPI Science News section, the House voted 304-118 to save the shuttle program for at least a little bit longer. This was a popular measure on both sides of the article, and shows how Democrats like Kosmas can save jobs in their district, even when the president doesn't include that in his budget. I'm happy Sen. Bill Nelson was visiting the House today making sure this got through. These are elected officials and they have constituents on the Space Coast, so this is what they are supposed to do.

But I can't help but wonder if we shouldn't just rip the band-aid off here. The Shuttle program is a dying program. I frankly find the popularity of this among conservatives a bit baffling. This is really an antiquated program, and a classic case of government continuing to fund something just because it is too painful to stop funding it.

I've noted before that those Republicans who dog stimulus spending on roads, which get used by millions every single day, are fairly hypocritical voting for millions to be spent sending people in aging cans into orbit. Like so much in government, our leaders seem unwilling to spend what it takes to reach loftier goals, but too reliant on pork to cut the losses and call it a day.

What we really need to do is find a way to reach further into the stars. I tend to think that can best be accomplished offering incentives to private space carrier providers, but it doesn't seem right now as if anyone is ready to put a Virgin Galactic ship on the pad as soon as the last shuttle lands.

I think the short-term possibilities in space tourism could be wonderful for the Space Coast economy. I think the long-term benefits on genuine intergalactic exploration are so great they can be ignored forever. But the vote today just hops NASA back on the same hamster wheel that has been spinning since the 1980s. Rather than waiting for the next Columbia disaster, I'd like to move on to the next step instead of keeping the shuttles on life support.

The Kosmas Plan. The Grayson Plan

Central Florida this year may offer the best example of campaign experimentation for Democrats in this entire campaign cycle as Suzanne Kosmas and Alan Grayson take starkly different approaches to re-election strategies. If one of these incumbents fall in November and the other remains standing, it will set the tone for years on how campaigns in swing districts are waged.

Kosmas is playing the ultimate moderate. She supports the Bush tax cuts, piddled around on Obamacare and has disappointed liberals with a Progressive rating which makes Allen Boyd look like a leftist. She is trying to be what many, including myself, believe is a dying out creature: the Southern conservative Democrat.

Grayson, meanwhile, is the ultimate fighting Democrat. He calls out social conservatism for being outside the mainstream, assaults right-wing health care policy, and fills his coffers with national donations as a result. This is the campaign most of us in the blogosphere have wanted from Democrats. It is what we hoped Howard Dean would do, and after that campaign imploded, what we wished so badly John Kerry had done.

But the "conventional wisdom" has always been, when the going gets tough, run to the center. Never mind that in any sport known to man, the most successful plays normally come from running up the sides.

Right now, Congress is breaking session, and infighting between the conservative Democrats like Kosmas and the liberals like Grayson has resulted in no vote being taken on the tax cuts, either those that benefit the rich, whom Kosmas is apparently quite worried about, or those that affect the rest of us.

There isn't enough polling being done on either of these seats, despite being the most watched Congressional races in the state. Kosmas and Grayson both have released internals which show themselves leading. But Sunshine State just released a poll that shows Grayson behind Dan Webster by 7 points. The NRCC says Kosmas is behind Sandy Adams by 10.

Obviously, everything is still in the air, and the next five weeks are go-time for both incumbents.

I want both freshmen to win re-election, of course. Kosmas is far from my favorite Democrat, but she's better than Rapey McNovotes. But given the choice, I would rather see Grayson re-elected and Kosmas go down than vice versa. While I was hard on the Grayson ad yesterday, I do kind of hope the name Taliban Dan sticks. More importantly, though, I want a declaration that sticking to one's principles and fighting for a liberal cause is not political foolishness, and that a progressive agenda has its place in mainstream America, not just liberal strongholds.

It's still a real possibility both of them could lose, which would suck, but at least would leave no room people to blame being liberal for Grayson's downfall. More important than any candidate is the right for a progressive agenda to be treated with equal respect in the marketplace of ideas, especially when right-wing fanaticism is so often given a pass.

Adams Would Say No For Rape Victims?

Something tucked into a HuffPost article caught my attention today. Apparently, the Republican National Coalition for Life is very excited about Sandy Adams, one of 63 House candidates they have endorsed who are "pro-life without exception."

In other words, they oppose freedom of choice even in the event the mother was raped and in cases of incest. Follow some links and you realize she even opposes in cases where the mother's life is in danger.

The article as a whole focuses primarily on Senate candidates, which makes sense. Senators, after all, are the ones who vote for Supreme Court justices, likely the only people with the power to impose these kinds of archaic restrictions.

But RNC for Life spokesperson Dianne Edmondson make special note of four House candidates who were especially exciting candidates to watch, and Adams was among them. I've written before about Adams' extreme views on other constitutional issues. I'm sure more will come up, but here is a list so far.

- Adams opposes direct election of U.S. Senators, preferring the Legislature take the reins there.

- Adams wants to repeal the amendment which created the federal income tax.

- Adams opposes a woman's right to choose, even in cases of rape, incest, or threat to the mother's health.

And you though the Tea Party was all about upholding the constitution. Turns out that includes one particular reading of it, and not a complete one at that.

Now, it's no secret Democrat Suzanne Kosmas is among the most endangered incumbents in the U.S. House. An NRCC-funded internal poll released last week shows Adams beating Kosmas 49-37. But can a candidate this extreme really be considered as a reasonable alternative?

Like Voting for Senators? Not Sandy Adams

One of the best things going for Republican Sandy Adams in the race for Florida's 24th is that people don't know much about her. In this sort of anti-incumbent, and in some places anti-Democrat, climate, being an unknown quantity can be good. But as we learn a little more about the state House member, voters may suddenly realize it isn't a great idea to jump on the Adams-wagon.

Right now, incumbent Suzanne Kosmas is pushing audio of Adams supporting repeal of the 17th Amendment and going back to letting statehouses choose U.S. Senators. I am curious what Marco Rubio thinks of that idea.

So do you enjoy voting in Senate elections? Since we have arguably the hottest such race in the country, I would think voters right now would be especially suspicious of this sort of constitutional repeal.

And once again, I'd like to note that Republicans, supposed defenders of the Constitution, seem to have a lot of things they want repealed. Birthright citizenship. Federal Income Tax. The list goes on and on.

I wrote yesterday that this race may be slipping away from us. If Kosmas can fight back, though, and paint her opponent as an extremist, then we can defend the 24th from attack. Adams was part of a crowded primary field, and emerged victorious when many early on were predicting rich steakhouse man Craig Miller would be the nominee. But outside of the few thousand (OK, almost 20,000) who voted for her on Aug. 24, she is largely an unknown quantity.

Let's hope Kosmas writes Adams' story before Adams does.

Bad News for Kosmas

If anyone is going to mess up my sunny disposition about Democrats' chances in Florida's House races, it will be Suzanne Kosmas. I am starting to fear the freshman has worked so hard to moderate herself in the eyes of voters she has been left with no strong base on which to win re-election.

A poll provided to The Buzz shows Kosmas as a 12-point underdog to state Rep. Sandy Adams. At this stage of the election that is bad news. Of course, this is a partisan poll from Public Opinion Strategies, and so far is just one poll. It could be an outlier. It could be one that is weighted heavily to favor Republicans. Are 63 percent of Space Coast voters really opposed to Obamacare? I have trouble believing that.

But there is no question this is troublesome ground. This seat was created in the 2002 Legislative session, when Speaker of the House Tom Feeney wanted a custom district to carry him to Washington. It worked until the Jack Abramoff scandal and a Democratic wave brought him down. But the district still leans to the right.

That is why Kosmas was wishy-washy on health care. She voted against original versions, pissing off the left, the voted for the final, pissing off the right. Not that I expect Democrats to learn lessons, but this should teach one to those politicians who believe blatant pandering gets anywhere with modern voters. But nothing to do about it now.

Obama has low approval ratings in the district, around 38 in this poll. With his shuttle-hating ways, that doesn't surprise me so much. But again, Kosmas has responded by coming out fighting against the president. Since she already has a shaky relationship with the left, I don't think this is so wise a strategy.

My advice, shore up support on the left. Compare Kosmas' support in FL-24 to Alan Grayson's in FL-08 and you see how well triangulation fares to authentic liberalism in the year 2010. But it may be too late. There are no big fights left in Congress before Election Day, and no way for Kosmas to still prove herself to voters. Her record stands for what it is. Only her rhetoric can turn this race around.

To write off a race in early September, as some party leaders already seem intent to do, would be ridiculous. A few presidential visits and a solid televised debate could still shift things the other way. But more pundits are moving this from Toss-Up to Leans R. I don't like it, but I can't argue. I want to say this is Kosmas' race to lose. I fear that she will do just that.

Primary Day - FL-24

Update: OK, this is close, but I'm calling it a night. It still looks like Adams leads by about 500 votes. That's good enough for me. Here is my logic. Miller lost everywhere but Volusia County, where he won by about 1,000 votes. Volusia is reporting all their normal ballots, and just has touchscreen ballots outstanding in about 6 precincts. Those ballots at this point are used by very few people, and there is no way for Miller to turn his deficit around. It's back to the steakhouse, Craig.

Update: The Sentinel says Adams still won't claim victory until more votes come in from Orange and Volusia. It seems from here that Orange has been very slow tonight. But she is probably right to keep mum. Less than one percent of the vote separates her from Diebel.

Update: While Kosmas has the nod, the Republican side is crazy tight. Adams at 31, Diebel at 29, Miller at 27.

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On the Republican side, a number of people slug it our for their shot at incumbent Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in November. Candidates are Craig Miller, Karen Diebel, Sandy Adams, Deon Long and Tom Garcia. My money is Miller, but we'll see how this plays out.

Kosmas hasn't exactly become a liberal superstar, and has drawn a challenge from Winter Springs Mayor Paul Partyka.

FL-24: Kosmas In Trouble?

Freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas is probably the most tense about the news of the NRCC buy. Republicans are starting to thirst for her blood, perhaps because of anger she beat rising star Tom Feeney two years ago in a district hand-drawn for the former state Speaker. A new poll by the American Action Forum shows her trailing Craig Miller 44-41. And unlike Grayson, she has never developed any special affection with the left.

Of course, we don't even know if Miller will be the nominee. He is in a GOP primary against ex-Winter Park Commissioner Karen Diebel and state Rep. Sandy Adams, two candidates with more electoral experience than the Ruth's Chris flunky. But if they can beat the well-monied Miller that probably means they can go into the general election strong. With news of the NRCC incumbent-killing program targeting her but ignoring Ron Klein, I suspect this makes Kosmas the most vulnerable incumbent in Florida this year. And since Obama lost this district two years ago, many people such as Southern Political Report are already moving this into the leans Republican column.

But then, Kosmas is still winning in money, and will build up some good name recognition and voter support in a minor primary with former Winter Springs mayor Paul Partyka. This is a big media market, so money could make a huge difference. Kosmas can definitely stick this out, and from there develop a long-term career in Congress. But it won't be easy.

FL-24: Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas (D)

FL-24: Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas (D)

Infighting may save the day for freshman Suzanne Kosmas, as a five way primary divides the right in this R+6 district. The link is to a Florida Today story on an internal poll touted by Ruth Chris Steakhouse flunkie Craig Miller to show he had a plurality lead among Republicans, but that 65 percent remain undecided. FEC reports don't show any more certainty, with Miller again leading with $326,000 cash on hand but Karen Diebel creeping up with about $255,000 and Sandy Adams close behind with just under $182,000.

Every one of those guys has enough money to win this if more than half of Republicans are truly uncommitted. That shows either hubris or anxiety on behalf of the GOP going into this race. Kosmas beat out incumbent Tom Feeney in this district in 2008, but had the perfect opponent. Despite the fact Feeney hand-drew this district for himself in 2002, he was plagued by Abramoff scandals and marred by all sorts of e-voting contract issues. The man was a poster child for what is wrong with career politicians.

But is Miller any better? He is wealthy, but his resume is ripe for attack. He is the classic failed business leader, just the sort of corporate villain the Democrats would like to see this year. And without Miller? While the other two major candidates could secure a spot on the November ballot, they have big strides to make in name recognition in order to beat Kosmas. The incumbent has more than $1.2 million cash on hand herself, and has nothing to spend it on but boosting her own positives until after the August primary.

While this race is one of only two marked toss-up by Cook Political Report, I don't believe it will stay that way forever. With no organized opposition, Kosmas may get an easier re-election bid than anyone could or should expect. This feels like a seat we will successfully defend.

Joe Garcia and hope for Florida Democrats

A new poll showing a lead for Democrat Joe Garcia in Florida's 25th is already garnering significant attention in the blogosphere, but it also makes me wonder if Florida, in an astonishing twist of fate, could be a significant bright light for Democrats nationwide in a year when the punditocracy predicts losses for the party. Indeed, I think some of the top prognosticators in Washington should probably take a closer look at their Sunshine State predictions right now because I think Democrats almost surely will grow its share of the state delegation.

The poll getting attention shows a 38-35 race between Garcia and Republican David Rivera. Admittedly this is an internal DCCC poll and has a lot of voters still in the undecided column. But there is no question this race is at worst a toss-up, and one where things are trending toward blue. This has potential to be a significant pickup for the Dems in 2010.

As background, this seat is held now by Republican Mario Diaz-Balart, who is fleeing east to run for his brother Lincoln's open seat. This alone should show the direction the district is trending. The incumbent held onto this seat with 53 percent of the vote in 2008 despite a serious challenge from Garcia and a strong tide in favor of Democrats during a year when Barack Obama won Florida's electoral votes. The fact a sitting Congressman, who hand-drew this seat in 2002 as chairman of the House redistricting committee, would rather flee than face re-election should be a sign the seat is up for grabs. Some things were working in Diaz-Balart's favor two years ago, most notably a close relationship with Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Shultz, a Democrat heading up the national push for Democrats to win seats who was reluctant to attack a South Florida colleague. Mario obviously fears Garcia will go after him more aggressively this year, and that he stands a better chance of keeping his job if voters in the 21st mistake him for Lincoln.

But the shady seat shuffling leaves a bad taste in the mouths of 25th District voters. And bad news about Rivera, the GOP frontrunner, had been about the only news in the race. A Tallahassee home he co-owned with Marco Rubio was in foreclosure proceedings this week until Rubio settled with the bank, and thanks to Rubio's high-profile in the Senate race, the story got billing in every political news outlet around. Rivera has also been flopping around on the Arizona immigration law, and his campaign filings have drawn fire. And like so many foolish Republican politicians, he adopted an unfortunate position in favor of offshore drilling a couple years before the Deepwater Horizon disaster. If Garcia is winning the race today, the headlines only have the potential of boosting his lead. Yet Cook Political Report still has this as a "Likely Republican" hold, as does CQ Politics, but I think that demands further review.

Honestly, I think both of those maps have statewide problems. They list Rep. Alan Grayson's seat as a toss-up, which early in the season was understandable but is questionable now. I was stunned two years ago when the Democrat upset Ric Keller, and it seemed voters in such conservative areas as Lake County would want blood. But the presence of a Tea Party candidate in the general and a battle for the Republican nomination seem to be fracturing opposition and paving the way for a Grayson victory party.

The other race in Florida that the nationals are watching is Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in the 24th. Like Diaz-Balart's district, this was hand-drawn by Republicans in 2002, but it has already been lost by the GOP. Kosmas, a Democrat, defeated ex-state House Speaker Tom Feeney there in 2008. And while a Democratic wave and Feeney's own issues surely helped, she won 57 percent of the vote. That is a bigger margin than Bill Posey won during in his inaugural bid in the 15th, just to the South, yet CQ lists Posey's seat as a "Safe Republican" hold. Challenging Kosmas for the Republicans are running Craig Miller, the ousted former CEO of Ruth's Steak House. Unless Kosmas gets embroiled in an unexpected scandal, I expect this to go our way.

Every other incumbent Congressman in Florida is probably safe for re-election, but the only one of them Cook even lists as a leaner is the 2nd, where Democrat Allen Boyd won re-election in a Republican leaning district in 2008 with 62 percent of the vote, even as McCain took the district by 9 points. Should Boyd retire or get hit by a truck, we may have problems with the Panhandle district, but he has held that seat for 14 years, and will continue to do so until he is ready to go.

By my math, that means the Democrats will pick up a seat in the Congressional delegation. And we probably will have a Senator who caucuses with the Dems as well. That should make this a fantastic year for Democrats, in a swing state no less, and that should significantly disrupt a narrative about Democrats facing hard times this year.

The Power of the Map

Florida seems the perennial swing state in every presidential election. Yet the Legislature is dominated by GOP lawmakers, and Republicans far outnumber Democrats within the Congressional delegation. The reason? The GOP drew the map for all state House and Senate districts, as well as every Congressional seat in the Sunshine state. How did that happen? And why is it important this year? Because the once-a-decade reapportionment season is upon us, and whoever wins the gubernatorial race will likely determine whether there are 10 more years of GOP domination in Florida or if the Democrats have a fighting chance at fair representation.

While most people are aware of the Census conducted by the federal government at the beginning of each decade, few realize the political ramifications once people get counted. Among other things, the legislatures of every state get to work drawing districts of roughly the same population for whatever offices for which that in necessary. In Florida, that means redrawing 120 state House districts, 40 state Senate districts and however many Congressional districts the Feds say are appropriate. After the 1990 and 2000 censuses (censi?), Florida picked up a total of six Congressional seats, substantially raising both Florida's electoral influence and the political stakes of redistricting.

In 1990, the Democrats controlled the Legislature under Gov. Lawton Chiles, and of course drew a map that was favorable to the left. But before the decade was out, Republicans joined forces with the NAACP and filed a lawsuit demanding the courts gerrymander districts and increase minority representation.

I'm sorry, I don't know if that sunk in with everybody out there. Let me say it again. Republicans joined forces with the NAACP and filed a lawsuit demanding the courts gerrymander districts to increase minority representation.

That makes no sense, you say? But it does. Blacks were historically under-represented in Florida, so the NAACP saw an opportunity challenging the maps in Florida to get seats drawn with majority-minority constituencies. The result of such gerrymandering, though, is that reliable Democratic voters get siphoned into specific districts. This gave us Congressmen like Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, and it cost us dearly in terms of Congressional possibilities. Here is an NYT article on the subject from 1990 as suits in a number of states were being prepared, in case you don't believe me.

Over the course of the decade in Florida, Republicans gradually took a majority of seats in the state House and Senate. In 1998, they finally won majorities of both chambers. Then in 2000, just as term limits were for the first time forcing many entrenched incumbents into retirement, the margins for the GOP rose to astonishing levels. Jeb Bush also happened to have taken the Governor's Mansion, so the GOP was free for the first time in decades to draw a legislative map to their liking with no fear of a veto. Seats previously drawn for Democratic lawmakers, such as the one held by now-Florida Democratic Party chairwoman Karen Thurman, were redrawn so Republicans could win them. Other seats were custom fit for lawmakers, such as a Central Florida seat which happened to be stretched in a way to contain then-House Speaker Tom Feeney's home.

Technology also allowed micro-reapportionment like never before seen. Senators offered amendments presented on floppy disk, and electioneers got into chambers to engineer nearly perfect districts for all lawmakers. Sometimes the Democrats who were in the Legislature seemed complicit in deals, going along with redistricting so long as their own seats were mapped in ways that favored the incumbents. Did the effort go perfectly for the GOP? Of course not. In the Democratic wave two years ago, Rep. Feeney was ousted from his hand-drawn seat by Democrat Suzanne Kosmas. Rep. Ric Keller, a Republican who barely won election into the House in 2000, had a safer seat drawn to protect him, but lost it two years ago to super-liberal Alan Grayson. But it should be noted those two Congressional seats are the only ones Cook Political Report lists as toss-ups in Florida right now, so victory may be fletting.

And for the most part, the map has done good by the GOP, better than they likely deserve. Consider Barack Obama won this state in 2008, and George W. Bush skated by infamously close races in 2000 and 2004 (and yes, that is a very generous assessment of the 2000 election for Dubya). Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson coasted to statewide victory four years ago. Republicans win most statewide offices here, but it is hardly a Republican-only electorate.

And because of this, it is extremely important Alex Sink win the governor's race if Florida Democrats want hope in a plethora of other contests. We can't win the state House or Senate this year, for precisely the map-rigging detailed in this post. Think the Congressional map is skewed? Check out the state House map. The best option we have for oversight on the process is having a Democrat in the Governor's Mansion. It would be the first time in decades that different parties controlled the veto pen and the mapper's quill. The threat of veto hopefully would lead to fair districts, and if not, Sink could override a crooked map as the governor and force lawmakers to give a second go in a special session. If necessary, courts could step in.

Bill McCollum or Rick Scott would let the lawmakers draw out their own fantasy maps, as Jeb Bush did in 2000 and, frankly, as Lawton Chiles did in 1990. If a GOP governor is elected, get used to another decade of minority rule.