GOP Should Sacrifice Rivera

I know. Why should they care what I have to say. But with the entry of Luis Garcia into the race, the writing on the wall is getting more clear. A state House member who lives outside the district is considered a viable Democratic contender for this seat because it seems inevitable things will blow our way this time.

State lawmakers involved in redistricting next year have a choice: draw a seat that is more Republican-friendly by absorbing more of Collier County in order to protect scandal machine David Rivera, or shift this seat more in the direction of Miami-Dade so it becomes more fertile ground. Now, Rivera is so dirty I expect him to draw credible challenges from within his own party, but unless he gets removed from office before the candidate slate is set, he has to be a favorite to be his party's nominee. If that happens, he will lose in November regardless of whether this seat tilts GOP or not.

Federal law doesn't require candidates for Congress to live in their districts. It is just generally a good idea in terms of building a political base. As long as this race is a referendum on the embarrassment that is David Rivera, an outsider can take this election and move in later.

Now, I expect Luis Garcia will face some opposition in the Democratic primary as well. Joe Garcia, whom I thought did an admirable job running against a tide last year, seems an obvious choice to make a run. Depending how this district takes shape, I think a number of other prominent Dems will come out of the woodwork. But a contested primary is good for the party challenging an incumbent. It garners press, makes voters pay attention and fall in love with candidates early, and creates a sense that the primary is where the real contest is that cycle.

From Rivera's statement to the Miami Herald (follow the above link), he has no plans of backing out of this contest except by force.

GOP leaders in Tallahassee can give up this seat to the blue team and make other seats safer. I am sure Republicans would like Connie Mack's district to be all the more safer, especially since speculation is beginning again that he may make a post-Haridolopos run for Senate.

Cut your losses. Toss Rivera where he belongs, in the annals of history.

Recruiting Against Rivera

I suspect it won't be hard to find a slough of Democrats willing to challenge Rep. David Rivera, a freshman Republican in the 25th and easily the most embarrassing result of Florida's GOP storm in the 2010 elections. I have great admiration for Joe Garcia, and hope he runs again, but apparently some other interesting folks are also getting into the mix, including state Rep. Luis Garcia.

This will be a big race, so people will have to get in early, even though the district lines won't be known until next Spring. But something interesting, it seems as if this district, created 10 years ago so Mario Diaz-Balart could get a cheap ticket to Washington, may get drawn by the GOP Legislature as a more Democrat-leaning district.

From the St. Pete Times:

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The Miami-based congressional district held by Republican Rep. David Rivera could get cut at the Collier County line, making the seat a little less Republican, said Steve Schale, a Democratic consultant.

Rivera's district, which is over-populated by nearly 111,000, borders the Fort Myers-based seat held by Rep. Connie Mack, who's mulling a run for U.S. Senate. His seat is overpopulated by about 162,000.

So it's likely, though not guaranteed, that many of those excess Collier and Lee County residents will form the backbone of a new Southwest Florida-based congressional seat, according to Schale.
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Since Rep. Connie Mack is running for re-election instead of the Senate, I expect Tallahassee will make his seat a little safer at Rivera's expense. And since Mack doesn;t really live here anyway, he probably doesn't care. (note, I live in Connie Mack's district today. I also live a couple miles from Jeff Kottkamp, who the Times suggests may benefit from redistricting, so that may change)

The question in Tallahassee from a political standpoint is how much the Republicans want to keep this seat. Truth is the seat has been trending blue, enough so that Diaz-Balart high-tailed it out last year. Now that we have one of the most outwardly corrupt freshman in the country representing the district, it seems a ripe choice for flipping in 2012. And by corrupt, I mean was instantly under federal investigation.

But the question is whether is is important to keep the district red, not Rivera. Some Republican leaders are already recuiting challengers for this seat regardless what happens with Rivera. It will be curious to see if the folks in Tallahassee try to hold this area for their team.

The advantage we have, and the one we should leverage, is that this seat is tainted by corruption regardless what it looks lie next year. We should be the housecleaning campaign, regardless who we run, and regardless who they run. If we put a strong enough slate of people out there right now, I think it is more like the GOP won't even put up a fight. They are likely picking up two new seats in Florida this year, and that should be enough for them.

And when this seat moves to our column, we can bask in the irony that a seat blatantly hand-drawn for the Republicans will be in the hands of Democrats a mere 10 years later.

GOP Finding Ways to Oust Rivera. We Should Too!

Truly, without doubt, the most shameful election result to come out of the Sunshine State last year was the election of Rep. David Rivera, R-Underworld. But don't take my word on it. Read Politico.

From the piece:

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Republicans are already privately floating the names of potential primary challengers to Rivera, and on Capitol Hill he’s found himself increasingly isolated as leaders try to distance themselves from his troubles back home.

Top House Republicans organized a mid-February breakfast for freshmen who had participated in Young Guns, a fundraising and infrastructure support program for top recruits of the 2010 cycle. Rivera, who was a Young Gun, was left off the invitation list, a GOP source said.

Two weeks later, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) traveled to Miami for a fundraiser and didn’t even meet with Rivera. Cantor later told reporters he was “very concerned” about allegations regarding a misuse of campaign money before Rivera came to Congress. Cantor was in Miami once again last weekend and did not have an event with Rivera, a source said.
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It seems Republican leadership in Washington has realized this man serves as nothing but a black eye on the caucus, and is outwardly looking for primary challengers to man who managed to become subject of a state investigation within weeks of being sworn in.

The thing is, when a new majority takes over the House, they want to look like reformers. But Rivera is about as crooked and corrupt as politicians come. He lied about his income on financials for years, and when he told the truth raised more questions about the offshore company that he runs. And that doesn't even get into allegations of running vehicles off roads to fend off negative campaign mailers, nor does it bring up that whole woman-beating thing.

Truth is, it seems unlikely right now that Rivera will make it through his first term without being forced to resign. State lawmakers from the area including Anitere Flores, Miguel Diaz de la Portilla and JC Planas are already lining up for a challenge. And they should. Rivera would not have won this seat in 2006 or 2008, and was only carried to the House by a strong statewide GOP wave. Lawmakers who are interested in winning this seat in a special election best start prepping now.

What I want to know is why our team isn't doing more to get this seat back. If the red team is so ready to eat their own Young Gun, why isn't the blue team more prepared to make a good go? I know the DCCC is recruiting against Rivera and others in 2012, but we need to make a priority of this race. I don't think it will wait for the next presidential election, and that means it will be harder to pick up without any help from Obama's coattails.

I hope Joe Garcia, who nearly beat Mario Diaz-Balart here in 2008 but was knocked down by the 2010 tea party wave, is gearing up right now for a challenge. And if there is any other Democrat who thinks they can do better, they should get their damn name out there right now.

The Republicans willing to take out Rivera are already out there. This election has already begun. If we are going to field a team, someone better suit up now!

FL-25: Garcia-Rivera

Update 3: I hate to say it but this looks done. Collier still has some numbers out, but the county as a whole has been going GOP tonight.

Update 2: Miami-Dade numbers are not showing as strong for Garcia as I had hoped. Apparently, Republicans this year just don't care who is on the ballot. Only silver lining here is that Rivera may get himself indicted before the end of a first term. Boo, hiss, South Florida.

Update: As with the Klein race, it is still very early. Rivera is up by a lot, but few votes are in. And my guess is most are from liberal Miami-Dade County.

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When I made my rosy predictions for the Florida Congressional races this year, I did so because I was so inspired by Joe Garcia. I suspect those predictions overall will prove too optimistic, but I sincerely believe Garcia will pull this race out.

Only part of that is on us. David Rivera has been a monumentally bad candidate who darn near got himself kicked off the ticket this year. He doesn't deserve to walk the streets freely, much less the halls of Congress.

But Garcia has also been a phenomenal and tireless campaigner. A former head of the Miami-Dade DEC and a near-victor two years ago against Mario Diaz-Balart in a seat hand-drawn for the incumbent, the guy has developed name recognition and a loyal army of supporters. I am counting on a Garcia victory. If I am wrong, well, that would be a sign of a very bad night.

I'd Rather Face Rivera Than a Random Thug

Hat tip to Markos on this Florida story noticed first at Daily Kos.

A lawsuit in South Florida right now seeks to get David Rivera tossed from the ballot. The more I think about it, the more concerned I am with this approach. My reasons are political, most notably that I think David Rivera makes a fantastic opponent for Democrats.

Here is the story via the Miami Herald:

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The complaint, submitted in Miami-Dade Circuit Court, seeks to disqualify Rivera as a federal candidate based on financial disclosure forms Rivera filed while serving as state representative.

Lawyers for Miami attorney William Barzee and Garcia supporter Maria Teresa Pascual filed the suit and held a news conference at the downtown Miami civil courthouse Thursday morning. Garcia was not there, though two of his campaign staffers were organizing the event.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/10/21/1884222/joe-garcia-to-sue-to-remove-david.html#ixzz131K9rfJp

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This is all totally legit, and I wrote about it here last week. The problem I have is not that a lawsuit is being filed, but that the plaintiffs are seeking to kick Rivera off the ballot. I truly wish they would think the consequences of this out.

The most recent example of this happening was just days ago when a Tallahassee judge ordered Jim Norman's name off a ballot for State Senator in the Tampa area. The result is that the Hillsborough County Republicans are being asked to name a replacement candidate. Ballots are already printed, so being ordered "off the ballot" doesn't mean you are truly off the ballot. This mystery candidate, who may even be Norman himself, will not be chosen through a primary but by party leaders. And whoever the candidate may be, he or she is getting votes right now through early voting.

The same thing happened in 2006 when the Mark Foley scandal broke late. The disgraced Congressman resigned and withdrew from his re-election bid as emails hit the press regarding his vulgar flirtations with underage pages. As much fun as it would have been to run against Foley, Democrat Tim Mahoney's name appeared on the ballot beside Mark Foley's while everyone of Foley's votes were counted for party replacement Joe Negron. Ultimately, Mahoney won anyway, then lost after his own sex scandal two years later.

While all these examples involved Republican candidates, the problem isn't with the party but the process. It is totally undemocratic to count people's votes for a candidate who didn't go through the proper qualification process, endure the primaries if necessary and ultimately earn his place on the ballot. But that is the way state law works, putting party above democracy.

On a more superficial level, why would we want to give the Republican party the ability less than two weeks before an election to swap Rivera with a better candidate? Even national Republicans are conceding quietly to the press that they have a lousy candidate. The Democrats have a great one. This is a tough year, but we are in great position to win this seat.

But even though Rivera is a liar and a jerk, he will be made to look the victim here, just as Norman is being touted as a sympathetic character in Tampa right now. If, Lord help us, Rivera wins the election, take this lawsuit forward and nail the guy for getting through the process through crooked means. But as long as we're this far into the game, let's just enjoy the chance for a pickup in an R+6 district amid a Republican wave, and thank the GOP for the assist of a candidate with endless flaws.

National Dems See Garcia's Promise

Some good news in the National Journal, where Major Garrett noted that national Dems see Joe Garcia's race in the 25th as one of the top five pickup opportunities in the country. Personally, I wish the DCCC had done more offense this year, but I am happy that this opportunity was taken seriously by the blue team in Washington.

From Garrett:

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In Florida's 25th, Republicans are angry -- not at Washington, but at Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, a first-generation Cuban-American. He fled this seat to run in the more compact and nominally more Cuban 21st District, creating an opening for former Miami-Dade County Democratic Chairman Joe Garcia, who lost to Diaz-Balart, 53 percent to 47 percent, in 2008. Garcia is running again and Republicans privately admit that their candidate, former state House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Rivera, though well-funded, is flawed. Republicans worry that higher turnout driven by races for governor and Senate will benefit the better-known Garcia. One Democratic poll in September had Garcia up by 7 points.

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I am surprised in a way that the GOP hasn't fought harder for David Rivera, but they can probably sense as well as local news editors what a train wreck the man is as a candidate. Garrett is awfully kind to leave it at "flawed." Recent revelations he has lied about doing consultant work for a federal agency come after allegations of domestic abuse and bad real estate deals with Marco Rubio. And just for fun, he also makes lunatic allegations about Garcia being a henchman of Castro. This guy is too coo-coo for Tea Party puffs, and that's saying something.

In Florida, this is our top pickup opportunity, and we should take it. I would love it if Florida Democrats come November could defend all incumbents in Congress AND take away a seat hand-drawn for Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Cowardice).

David Who? Rivera is the Gift the Keeps Giving

David Rivera cannot tell the truth about anything. It's just incredible.

The newest in a slew of scandals from this alleged woman-beater come courtesy the Miami Herald, who called the agency which supposedly provided Mr. Rivera with his main source of income outside being a legislator. Their response?

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``We do not have Mr. Rivera nor the corporations you referred to in our records,''

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/10/13/1870912/source-of-florida-state-rep-riveras.html#ixzz12HUtxmZE

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The entity in question is the U.S. Agency for International Development. In Rivera's financials, he claimed USAID used his as a consultant, or something. When contacted, he said the discrepancy must have something to with his company Interamerican Government Relations, a firm which he is apparently unwilling to reveal very much information about at all.

My favorite part of this? Rivera's explanation is truly worse than the original lie. What he is saying is that he actually was working through a business he owned, but failed to disclose in his financial disclosures any time between 2003 and 2009. Even in the midst of a new scandal, he refuses to identify any of the principals in this Puerto Rican company he allegedly founded. Per the Herald's reporting, this company apparently exists, but there is no real information in public documents there. I can't find a website for Interamerican government relations, or even a supposed mission of this company, which is weird if it has anything to so with, say, interamerican government relations. I would expect a company doing international business in that field to be pretty wired in.

So his real source of income is actually a foreign company he founded but will reveal nothing about. And yes, this is the guy who called Democrat Joe Garcia a "henchman of Castro" on Spanish-language radio hoping no mainstream media would tune in.

Why didn't he disclose anything about this company he owns? Why did he lie about working for USAID, a federal government agency which indeed does have a website and which has to provide a lot of information to the public? Perhaps he makes less than $1,000 in income beyond the $30,000 he pulls in as a state legislator, which would explain how he and Marco Rubio ended up with a home going into foreclosure.

Joe Garcia must win this race. Rivera is just too easy pickings. This may be the Democrat's biggest pickup opportunity in the country, and is certainly the best shot at taking a seat in Florida. We just need to seal the deal.

What Wave? Garcia Up on Rivera

Don't look now, but Democrats in Florida may make net gains against all predictions on doom in House races this year. A new poll shows Joe Garcia up 7 points on David Rivera in Florida's 25th. Now, it's just an internal poll, so I won't go nuts on it just yet, but that's a big enough lead someone ought to commission an independent poll pretty darn quick.

The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll, commissioned by the DCCC, pegs this with Garcia at 40, Rivera at 33, Tea Partier Roly Arrojo at 7 and Whig Craig Porter at 2 percent. I'd be a lot happier if Garcia was over 50 right now, but this means even if all the Tea Party voters came home and voted Republican, the race would be tied. And while people always want to cry spoiler, I don't believe those third-party voters would come out for a mid-term election to cats anything but a protest vote.

The Garcia camp is obviously giddy. From a release:

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“This poll makes one thing clear - South Floridians are rejecting Tallahassee politician David Rivera's scandal plagued past because they know he can't be trusted,” said Shripal Shah, Regional Press Secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Voters are supporting Joe Garcia because they understand that he will fight for middle class families and will work hard to bring jobs to South Florida.”

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If nothing else, this shows a great opportunity for a pickup, despite the doom-and-gloom predictions making all the national headlines. As I've said again and again, this is a very winnable race for us. If it wasn't a territory trending our way, then Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart wouldn't be fleeing this custom-made district to run for his brother's seat instead.

But more important, Rivera is a terrible candidate. Last week, I noted he is now resorting to calling Garcia a henchman of Castro. His past is peppered with accusations of domestic violence, inescapable financial problems and an unorthodox history of quashing dissent. This is who the Republican Party of Florida has chosen as a successor to a seat drawn solely for the purpose of adding to its Congressional majority.

My rosy prediction the Dems could gain a seat in Florida this year hinge upon Garcia winning, so I am pulling for him in a very big way. Since the DCCC also has a money advantage right now, I'm rosier about this South Florida race every day.

Rivera Tries to Tie Garcia to Castro

When so much bad news hits your campaign for Congress, how does a good GOP hopeful respond? By calling his opponent a traitor. The fun was exposed by the Naples Daily News, where much to Rivera's chagrin, someone knows Spanish. Rivera apparently wenton Spanish-language radio and had an otherwise typical interview, but decided to slip in that Garcia was an "esbirros."

Lost? He is the newspaper's translation:

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Republican candidate David Rivera has labeled Democratic opponent Joe Garcia as an esbirros, or henchman, of Fidel Castro’s Communist regime, among other harsh claims made in Spanish in a Sept. 3 radio interview with a radio station in Miami.

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And then he denied saying that. Twice. But who would have thought the newspaper had the ability to get audio, and to translate the justification for Rivera's accusation. He said Rivera destroyed a foundation helping Cubanos. Oh, and he did it to help Castro's government.

More below:

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“He (Garcia) has the support of all of the allies of the Castro regime in this community. All of the owners of Castro’s travel agencies are supporting Joe Garcia. All of the esbirros (and) Fidelistas (Castro sympathizers) that we have in this community are supporting Joe Garcia,” Rivera said in Spanish.

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This is all baseless, of course. Garcia was executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation for four years, and served on its board for 20. He touts that work on his website, where he boasts becoming one of the leading advocates for human rights in Cuba and Latin America.

Frankly, Garcia is far more anti-Castro than I care for, but I accept that South Florida candidates, particularly those coming straight out of the Cuban-American population in Miami, are going to support continued embargoes and the like. Frankly, Garcia and Rivera aren't far apart on Cuba issues. Which, of course, if probably why Rivera is stooping to this level.

We shouldn't be surprised. Rivera has been a disaster as a candidate, plagued by scandal after scandal.

I have detailed the reasons before why I think Garcia can win this race, and why Democrats should pick up on his momentum. But if my sunny optimism admiration for the Democrat doesn't get others revved up, consider directing sheer anger at this sack-of-garbage running on behalf of the Grand Old Party. Don't let someone who lies in Spanish so the media won't catch it end up with a seat in Congress peddling that garbage, or trying to derail any messages he doesn't want out.

FL-12 and FL-25: Huge Opportunity

The NRCC target list provides bad news for a lot of incumbents, even ones who are prepared to take the extra licks, but it also reveals something about the NRCC's strategy this year which provides great news to Democrats seeking open seats. Florida has two real chances at pickups this year: the 12th and the 25th.

I have been saying good things about our odds in the 25th for months. Joe Garcia is an outstanding candidate who already sent Mario Diaz-Balart fleeing from his own hand-drawn district, and he has been raising a solid amount of cash. Additionally, Republican David Rivera has not been a very good candidate thus far. Yes, Rivera has raised more than a million, but shaky positions on oil and immigration have hurt him, as has a high-profile foreclosure scandal involving Senate hopeful Marco Rubio.

As for the 12th, I was ready to write off this race a month ago but news the NRCC is focusing on incumbents could help Democrat Lori Edwards out a great deal. Southern Political Report was also more impressed than I was with Edwards' fundraising, tough they still peg this as a Republican-leaning district. Adam Putnam's pursuit of higher office does create an opportunity here in a district that John McCain carried by a point. It still may take a slip-up by Republican Dennis Ross, a former state representative, to make this winnable, but things look better today than they did a week ago.

Is the NRCC over-confident in thinking these seats won't be competitive? It may be they have polling we don't, but then the strategy to leave every open seat in the nation alone hints at a confidence in the GOP that the bulk on incumbent-free races will go their way. That could be true, but such confidence would make it all the more fun to surprise them in November.

FL-25: Open Seat (R)

FL-25: Open Seat (R)

Want to know our biggest chance at surprising the world? Look south to Joe Garcia's campaign to take the 25th. The presumptive Democratic nominee gave Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart enough of a scare in 2008 that Mario is running to his big brother's district next door to seek re-election in friendlier territory. In an anti-incumbent year and an R+5 district, we'd probably be better off fighting Diaz-Balart than Republican hopeful David Rivera, but lucky for us, Rivera has been a terrible candidate.

The biggest issue is probably his foreclosure connection to Marco Rubio. That story has statewide legs and has brought negative publicity for a supposed fiscal conservative. He is facing domestic violence accusations, always fun. He has also been using some questionable techniques to raise money at FIU, which were unsound enough to draw a rebuke from the university president.

As for money, Rivera still leads but not by an impressive amount. The Republican has $1.1 million cash on hand, while Garcia has just over $623,000. But Garcia doesn't need money as much. Rivera is a state lawmaker and has appeared on the ballot in part of this district, but Garcia has run district-wide. There were 115,820 people who voted for him in 2008, and that was during a presidential election. Hopefully he can mobilize those forces again and take this open seat from Republican hands. He is a proven vote-getter and a potential winner for the blue team.

Is it likely? I wouldn't be honest if I didn't say we have an uphill battle here. But it seems more likely Garcia will win this race than that West will beat Klein. Heck, I think this race is more likely to end up changing hands than Kosmas' seat. And without an incumbent, this one really is ours to win.

Joe Garcia and hope for Florida Democrats

A new poll showing a lead for Democrat Joe Garcia in Florida's 25th is already garnering significant attention in the blogosphere, but it also makes me wonder if Florida, in an astonishing twist of fate, could be a significant bright light for Democrats nationwide in a year when the punditocracy predicts losses for the party. Indeed, I think some of the top prognosticators in Washington should probably take a closer look at their Sunshine State predictions right now because I think Democrats almost surely will grow its share of the state delegation.

The poll getting attention shows a 38-35 race between Garcia and Republican David Rivera. Admittedly this is an internal DCCC poll and has a lot of voters still in the undecided column. But there is no question this race is at worst a toss-up, and one where things are trending toward blue. This has potential to be a significant pickup for the Dems in 2010.

As background, this seat is held now by Republican Mario Diaz-Balart, who is fleeing east to run for his brother Lincoln's open seat. This alone should show the direction the district is trending. The incumbent held onto this seat with 53 percent of the vote in 2008 despite a serious challenge from Garcia and a strong tide in favor of Democrats during a year when Barack Obama won Florida's electoral votes. The fact a sitting Congressman, who hand-drew this seat in 2002 as chairman of the House redistricting committee, would rather flee than face re-election should be a sign the seat is up for grabs. Some things were working in Diaz-Balart's favor two years ago, most notably a close relationship with Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Shultz, a Democrat heading up the national push for Democrats to win seats who was reluctant to attack a South Florida colleague. Mario obviously fears Garcia will go after him more aggressively this year, and that he stands a better chance of keeping his job if voters in the 21st mistake him for Lincoln.

But the shady seat shuffling leaves a bad taste in the mouths of 25th District voters. And bad news about Rivera, the GOP frontrunner, had been about the only news in the race. A Tallahassee home he co-owned with Marco Rubio was in foreclosure proceedings this week until Rubio settled with the bank, and thanks to Rubio's high-profile in the Senate race, the story got billing in every political news outlet around. Rivera has also been flopping around on the Arizona immigration law, and his campaign filings have drawn fire. And like so many foolish Republican politicians, he adopted an unfortunate position in favor of offshore drilling a couple years before the Deepwater Horizon disaster. If Garcia is winning the race today, the headlines only have the potential of boosting his lead. Yet Cook Political Report still has this as a "Likely Republican" hold, as does CQ Politics, but I think that demands further review.

Honestly, I think both of those maps have statewide problems. They list Rep. Alan Grayson's seat as a toss-up, which early in the season was understandable but is questionable now. I was stunned two years ago when the Democrat upset Ric Keller, and it seemed voters in such conservative areas as Lake County would want blood. But the presence of a Tea Party candidate in the general and a battle for the Republican nomination seem to be fracturing opposition and paving the way for a Grayson victory party.

The other race in Florida that the nationals are watching is Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in the 24th. Like Diaz-Balart's district, this was hand-drawn by Republicans in 2002, but it has already been lost by the GOP. Kosmas, a Democrat, defeated ex-state House Speaker Tom Feeney there in 2008. And while a Democratic wave and Feeney's own issues surely helped, she won 57 percent of the vote. That is a bigger margin than Bill Posey won during in his inaugural bid in the 15th, just to the South, yet CQ lists Posey's seat as a "Safe Republican" hold. Challenging Kosmas for the Republicans are running Craig Miller, the ousted former CEO of Ruth's Steak House. Unless Kosmas gets embroiled in an unexpected scandal, I expect this to go our way.

Every other incumbent Congressman in Florida is probably safe for re-election, but the only one of them Cook even lists as a leaner is the 2nd, where Democrat Allen Boyd won re-election in a Republican leaning district in 2008 with 62 percent of the vote, even as McCain took the district by 9 points. Should Boyd retire or get hit by a truck, we may have problems with the Panhandle district, but he has held that seat for 14 years, and will continue to do so until he is ready to go.

By my math, that means the Democrats will pick up a seat in the Congressional delegation. And we probably will have a Senator who caucuses with the Dems as well. That should make this a fantastic year for Democrats, in a swing state no less, and that should significantly disrupt a narrative about Democrats facing hard times this year.