Grab The Popcorn, Mica-Adams Fight Coming

Or at least that is what both parties say right now. Via the Sentinel:

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After weeks of silence, U.S. Rep. John Mica of Winter Park said Wednesday that he plans to run for re-election in a redrawn congressional district centered on Seminole County — setting up a potentially bruising primary with fellow Republican Sandy Adams of Orlando... If neither budges, a Mica-Adams primary could be a rough-and-tumble affair. Mica chairs the House Transportation Committee and would bring to bear all the weapons of an old bull Republican – well-heeled connections groomed by two decades on Capitol Hill... Adams, though, can count on the backing of the Tea Party caucus and could cast the race as a battle for the soul of the Republican Party.
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If you want to read all of the Republican inside baseball, I encourage you to check out the article.

It seems to me, though, that this is a fight that the Tea Party will lose. Mica is all the good things about the establishment when it comes to serving the interests of his own voters. Road projects are the type of pork everybody ultimately ends up calling a good thing.

As for Adams, I like people to take a moment and realize what she and her like really want when they talk about the soul of the Republican Party by reading here and here.

But the real thing that Democrats should be looking for is a good candidate in the 6th, where creepy Ruth Chris Steakhouse ex-CEO Craig Miller poses for now the best hope for the GOP. In a year where the 99 percent are especially angry at bastards who got rich doing a bad job in the private sector, I think the Republicans are cooking us a pick-up seat.

Primary Day - FL-24

Update: OK, this is close, but I'm calling it a night. It still looks like Adams leads by about 500 votes. That's good enough for me. Here is my logic. Miller lost everywhere but Volusia County, where he won by about 1,000 votes. Volusia is reporting all their normal ballots, and just has touchscreen ballots outstanding in about 6 precincts. Those ballots at this point are used by very few people, and there is no way for Miller to turn his deficit around. It's back to the steakhouse, Craig.

Update: The Sentinel says Adams still won't claim victory until more votes come in from Orange and Volusia. It seems from here that Orange has been very slow tonight. But she is probably right to keep mum. Less than one percent of the vote separates her from Diebel.

Update: While Kosmas has the nod, the Republican side is crazy tight. Adams at 31, Diebel at 29, Miller at 27.

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On the Republican side, a number of people slug it our for their shot at incumbent Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in November. Candidates are Craig Miller, Karen Diebel, Sandy Adams, Deon Long and Tom Garcia. My money is Miller, but we'll see how this plays out.

Kosmas hasn't exactly become a liberal superstar, and has drawn a challenge from Winter Springs Mayor Paul Partyka.

FL-24: Kosmas In Trouble?

Freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas is probably the most tense about the news of the NRCC buy. Republicans are starting to thirst for her blood, perhaps because of anger she beat rising star Tom Feeney two years ago in a district hand-drawn for the former state Speaker. A new poll by the American Action Forum shows her trailing Craig Miller 44-41. And unlike Grayson, she has never developed any special affection with the left.

Of course, we don't even know if Miller will be the nominee. He is in a GOP primary against ex-Winter Park Commissioner Karen Diebel and state Rep. Sandy Adams, two candidates with more electoral experience than the Ruth's Chris flunky. But if they can beat the well-monied Miller that probably means they can go into the general election strong. With news of the NRCC incumbent-killing program targeting her but ignoring Ron Klein, I suspect this makes Kosmas the most vulnerable incumbent in Florida this year. And since Obama lost this district two years ago, many people such as Southern Political Report are already moving this into the leans Republican column.

But then, Kosmas is still winning in money, and will build up some good name recognition and voter support in a minor primary with former Winter Springs mayor Paul Partyka. This is a big media market, so money could make a huge difference. Kosmas can definitely stick this out, and from there develop a long-term career in Congress. But it won't be easy.

FL-24: Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas (D)

FL-24: Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas (D)

Infighting may save the day for freshman Suzanne Kosmas, as a five way primary divides the right in this R+6 district. The link is to a Florida Today story on an internal poll touted by Ruth Chris Steakhouse flunkie Craig Miller to show he had a plurality lead among Republicans, but that 65 percent remain undecided. FEC reports don't show any more certainty, with Miller again leading with $326,000 cash on hand but Karen Diebel creeping up with about $255,000 and Sandy Adams close behind with just under $182,000.

Every one of those guys has enough money to win this if more than half of Republicans are truly uncommitted. That shows either hubris or anxiety on behalf of the GOP going into this race. Kosmas beat out incumbent Tom Feeney in this district in 2008, but had the perfect opponent. Despite the fact Feeney hand-drew this district for himself in 2002, he was plagued by Abramoff scandals and marred by all sorts of e-voting contract issues. The man was a poster child for what is wrong with career politicians.

But is Miller any better? He is wealthy, but his resume is ripe for attack. He is the classic failed business leader, just the sort of corporate villain the Democrats would like to see this year. And without Miller? While the other two major candidates could secure a spot on the November ballot, they have big strides to make in name recognition in order to beat Kosmas. The incumbent has more than $1.2 million cash on hand herself, and has nothing to spend it on but boosting her own positives until after the August primary.

While this race is one of only two marked toss-up by Cook Political Report, I don't believe it will stay that way forever. With no organized opposition, Kosmas may get an easier re-election bid than anyone could or should expect. This feels like a seat we will successfully defend.

Joe Garcia and hope for Florida Democrats

A new poll showing a lead for Democrat Joe Garcia in Florida's 25th is already garnering significant attention in the blogosphere, but it also makes me wonder if Florida, in an astonishing twist of fate, could be a significant bright light for Democrats nationwide in a year when the punditocracy predicts losses for the party. Indeed, I think some of the top prognosticators in Washington should probably take a closer look at their Sunshine State predictions right now because I think Democrats almost surely will grow its share of the state delegation.

The poll getting attention shows a 38-35 race between Garcia and Republican David Rivera. Admittedly this is an internal DCCC poll and has a lot of voters still in the undecided column. But there is no question this race is at worst a toss-up, and one where things are trending toward blue. This has potential to be a significant pickup for the Dems in 2010.

As background, this seat is held now by Republican Mario Diaz-Balart, who is fleeing east to run for his brother Lincoln's open seat. This alone should show the direction the district is trending. The incumbent held onto this seat with 53 percent of the vote in 2008 despite a serious challenge from Garcia and a strong tide in favor of Democrats during a year when Barack Obama won Florida's electoral votes. The fact a sitting Congressman, who hand-drew this seat in 2002 as chairman of the House redistricting committee, would rather flee than face re-election should be a sign the seat is up for grabs. Some things were working in Diaz-Balart's favor two years ago, most notably a close relationship with Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Shultz, a Democrat heading up the national push for Democrats to win seats who was reluctant to attack a South Florida colleague. Mario obviously fears Garcia will go after him more aggressively this year, and that he stands a better chance of keeping his job if voters in the 21st mistake him for Lincoln.

But the shady seat shuffling leaves a bad taste in the mouths of 25th District voters. And bad news about Rivera, the GOP frontrunner, had been about the only news in the race. A Tallahassee home he co-owned with Marco Rubio was in foreclosure proceedings this week until Rubio settled with the bank, and thanks to Rubio's high-profile in the Senate race, the story got billing in every political news outlet around. Rivera has also been flopping around on the Arizona immigration law, and his campaign filings have drawn fire. And like so many foolish Republican politicians, he adopted an unfortunate position in favor of offshore drilling a couple years before the Deepwater Horizon disaster. If Garcia is winning the race today, the headlines only have the potential of boosting his lead. Yet Cook Political Report still has this as a "Likely Republican" hold, as does CQ Politics, but I think that demands further review.

Honestly, I think both of those maps have statewide problems. They list Rep. Alan Grayson's seat as a toss-up, which early in the season was understandable but is questionable now. I was stunned two years ago when the Democrat upset Ric Keller, and it seemed voters in such conservative areas as Lake County would want blood. But the presence of a Tea Party candidate in the general and a battle for the Republican nomination seem to be fracturing opposition and paving the way for a Grayson victory party.

The other race in Florida that the nationals are watching is Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in the 24th. Like Diaz-Balart's district, this was hand-drawn by Republicans in 2002, but it has already been lost by the GOP. Kosmas, a Democrat, defeated ex-state House Speaker Tom Feeney there in 2008. And while a Democratic wave and Feeney's own issues surely helped, she won 57 percent of the vote. That is a bigger margin than Bill Posey won during in his inaugural bid in the 15th, just to the South, yet CQ lists Posey's seat as a "Safe Republican" hold. Challenging Kosmas for the Republicans are running Craig Miller, the ousted former CEO of Ruth's Steak House. Unless Kosmas gets embroiled in an unexpected scandal, I expect this to go our way.

Every other incumbent Congressman in Florida is probably safe for re-election, but the only one of them Cook even lists as a leaner is the 2nd, where Democrat Allen Boyd won re-election in a Republican leaning district in 2008 with 62 percent of the vote, even as McCain took the district by 9 points. Should Boyd retire or get hit by a truck, we may have problems with the Panhandle district, but he has held that seat for 14 years, and will continue to do so until he is ready to go.

By my math, that means the Democrats will pick up a seat in the Congressional delegation. And we probably will have a Senator who caucuses with the Dems as well. That should make this a fantastic year for Democrats, in a swing state no less, and that should significantly disrupt a narrative about Democrats facing hard times this year.