Primary Day - FL-02

Update: With 98 percent of the vote in, AP just called it for Boyd. The split is about 0.8 points, but that is likely insurmountable for Lawson. This is officially a Boyd-Southerland race. I must say, this was way closer than I expected it would be, and shows something about Boyd's support moving forward.

Update: This is the last race AP won't call. 90 percent of precincts are in. Lawson has whittled at Boyd all night, indicating he had better Election Day numbers than early voting numbers, but it looks like Boyd can still take it. Lawson is winning his share of counties, including Leon.

Update: Whoa, this has tightened up fast. Boyd still leads but with about 51.4 percent. But that's outside the recount margin. We'll have to see if Boyd can rally the party back together before November. This one is suddenly very, very close.

Update: The counties to report so far are all coming in for Boyd. He leads 55-45 over Lawson right now.

And Southerland has this. He is winning with 58 percent of the vote. Scholl is closest behind with 16 percent.

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Probably the most watched House race in Florida tonight, incumbent Democrat Allen Boyd gets challenged by state Sen. Al Lawson. These Panhandle Democrats are staking out the left, or at least the left as Panhandle Democrats would define it. I predict a Boyd win, but this primary has been the most serious challenge Boyd has contended against in years.

And the Republicans are salivating waiting for their own shot at the seat. The nomination tonight is likely a formality for the GOP, but presumptive nominee Steve Southerland is running against Eddie Hendry, Ron McNeil, Barbara Olscher and David Scholl.

FL-02: Boyd Getting Tested

This is the first time in ages when Allen Boyd has been involved in a real race, but I still have trouble seeing the GOP picking off this seat. I also don't see Boyd getting beaten in the Aug. 24 primary. While many had hoped state Sen. Al Lawson could get the Blue Dog tossed, Lawson simply hasn't run the best of campaigns. Making personal attacks about Boyd's divorce and getting into physical altercations with Boyd trackers have respectively made Lawson appear less like a statesman than an old crank. I am not in the Panhandle, but this race seems done.

In the general, I still have trouble believing Boyd is truly in trouble. He has far out-raised the presumptive Republican nominee Steve Southerland, and I expect that money can go a long way. Boyd has tons of name recognition, not just from 14 years in the House but another 28 in the state Legislature. And I believe this whole 'we-hate-earmarks' thing coming from the tea party megaphones will mean little when it comes to incumbents defending the spending brought home from Washington. This Tallahassee Democrat endorsement (for the primary) ticks off more than $35 million in grant dollars he won. In a district with two major state universities and the center of state government included, this should mean a great deal for voters.

Someday, Boyd will retire. And those old-school Panhandle Dixiecrats, who vote blue more out party loyalty than ideology, are slowly dying. We won't hold this seat forever. But I believe as long as Boyd is around we will continue to keep it blue.

FL-02: Incumbent Allen Boyd (D)

FL-02: Incumbent Allen Boyd (D)

Swing State Project surprised me a month ago when they pegged this race as one Dems would lose in November. I don't see it, not that many others do. Cook Political Report still marks this as a Lean Democrat despite an R+6 make-up. This is one the Republican Party of Florida lists every year as a possible pick-up, but always ends up staying Boyd country. SSP cites his vote for Health Care as a sinker, but if anything, that vote simply helps him in what could have been a tough primary battle this year.

The financial reports show Boyd is in very good shape. He has more than $1 million in cash on hand, compared to just under $195,000 for Republican front-runner William Southerland. Grant it Boyd will spend some of that on a Democratic challenge by state Sen. Al Lawson, but these campaign filings show Boyd may be taking the challenge too seriously. A spat over a Boyd tracker being harassed by Lawson drew a lot of attention, but most of it ended up being negative for Lawson (check this Classic Liberal post, which labels Lawson's actions as assault). Right now, Lawson has a little more than $34,000 cash on hand. The primary is Aug. 24, and I think this race is over.

Should Boyd ever retire, this race will show a lot of promise for the GOP. But right now Southerland is being outspent and isn't enjoying any significant presence in the press. And since Boyd really is playing like he's 10 points down, I expect he will do what it takes to emerge victorious. Unless Larson wins, which is unlikely, I don't think the seat is at all in danger.