Pelosi Behind Demings?

An otherwise unsurprising Politico article on how Nancy Pelosi thinks Mitt Romney will lose had an interesting nugget of information about a certain Central Florida race.

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Pelosi also touted female congressional candidates such as Tammy Duckworth, a former assistant secretary of the Department of Veterans Affairs who is running for Congress in Illinois, and former Orlando police chief Val Demings, who is trying to unseat Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.).

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71531.html#ixzz1jjWEjhs6
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This makes me wonder if Pelosi knows more about Florida redistricting than the rest of us, but it is a pretty strong signal of which way she wants any primary in FL-08 to go. Consider this just another sign Alan Grayson's ambitions lie elsewhere, I guess.

Of course, Pelosi has a lot of reason to be excited about Demings' campaign. She seems to be out-raising Webster, and despite the spin from Webster included in that linked Orlando Sentinel article, an incumbent who can't out-raise a challenger in any scenario should lose sleep at night.

What will really decide this race? It is still tough to predict the political climate in November, but I have a growing feeling that things will tilt to the left come Election Day instead of the right. The only real question right now is whether the Legislature can draw Webster a district in which he cannot lose. Since he has long kept friends on both sides of the aisle in Tallahassee, that is possible, Fair Districts or not.

We shall see.

Surprising and Lame

I thought Dan Webster had thicker skin than this. Welcome to the big leagues.

Via HuffPo:
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Staffers of at least one Congressional office, Rep. Tim Griffin (R-Ark.), distributed "homework" to Congressional town hall attendees in the form of a "watch list" that features photographs, personal information and pointed questions about six activists who are constituents of Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), each of whom was openly critical of Webster at his town halls earlier this year.
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Read the full article and be amazed at the level of paranoia. It is pathetic that Webster not only presumed people who challenged him in a town hall were not his own constituents (it is a swing district), but stunning that he never even looked up their address before warning Congressmen in adjoining states to watch out for these scary, scary liberals.

This is crap. Pure and simple.

Grayson's Re-Entry

A Daily Kos diary by Alan Grayson shows most of all that he is doing his homework on what it will take for Democrats to win in Florida in 2012. Without an actual Congressional district to run in as of yet, that's the most we can expect.

Here is the line most people are latching onto:
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In 2010, my district and everywhere else in Florida, Republican turnout was in the sixties. Democratic turnout was in the forties. Republican turnout was close to what it was in 2008; Democratic turnout was barely half of what it had been. In 2010, I could have won every Democratic vote (and almost did), plus every Independent vote, and I still would have lost. When I saw those numbers, I said on MSNBC, “when Democrats don’t vote, Democrats don’t win.”
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A good lesson.

What is the biggest takeaway to me? He doesn't ever say the word Webster.

I have noted before, the Florida Legislature is going to be good to Rep. Webster. As much of a radical right-winger as the man seems to the progressive blogosphere, Webster has extraordinary constituent relationships and a legendary ability to make friends with people on both sides of the aisle, no matter how far apart they may sit philosophically. If his adoration as the Grayson slayer isn't enough to win him friends in the GOP-filled state capitol, just his reputation as a fair state House speaker and state senator will lead to a GOP-leaning district which includes Webster's strongholds.

I don't care if Grayson ends up still living in Webster's district when the lines are drawn. There is going to be a left-leaning new district in Central Florida. That is where Grayson should run. The man will serve us well when he returns to Congress. Although most of us always liked that Grayson seemed unfettered by political consequence, we can likely trust to see an even more confident progressive head to Washington if he is representing a safe Democratic seat.

I very badly want to see Grayson return to Congress. He needs to run next year in an open seat if that goal is to be accomplished.

Grayson Playing It Wise For Now

So far, Alan Grayson seems to be plotting his return to Congress using something he has sometimes lacked: sense. I didn't expect it first, what with him filing for a district that doesn't actually exist. But he seems to be acting in way that is appropriately shrewd and politically realistic.

An Orlando Sentinel shows the flexibility which Grayson shows in evaluating the prospects for his own future, but more importantly to me, it shows a calm assessment of where his chances are most promising. I feared last November that Grayson would try to win his own district back, knowing full-well that Dan Webster would run in much more friendly territory in 2012.

Why? Webster is extraordinarily popular in Tallahassee. He was buoyed by a GOP wave last year which allowed him to win a majority Democrat seat, but enough rich Republican territory lies on the edges on that district that it seems inevitable a Republican legislature will make this a right-leaning district this year. All reports also point to the Republicans trying to stem off criticisms of partisanship by making sure one of the new Congressional district in Florida ends up as a Democratic seat. (Mark that as one success for the Fair Districts amendment)

The real question now is whether Grayson can win in this new district. It will be a majority-minority seat, but it will be curious to see the racial breakdowns when all is said and done. If blacks outnumber Hispanics, for example, it may end up Gary Siplin's race to lose, despite his own baggage. But if this is an Hispanic seat, it could be up for grabs for a Grayson comeback. So far, I have not heard of a field-clearing Hispanic candidate from this area, but feel free to inform me of one.

Of course, Grayson will likely see the same flood of national dollars from activists across the country that made for a huge war chest in 2012, even if that war chest proved ineffective against a GOP tidal wave in the state of Florida. Certainly, I would be happy to see him back on the floor of the U.S. House, and would feel less anxiety if he held a safe Democratic seat.

If things don't work out with redistricting, though, I hope Grayson stays realistic and sits this cycle out. He is an effective progressive voice that actually needs the megaphone of public office less than most anyone else. I expect 2012 to be a much, much friendlier year for Democrats than the last painful cycle, but especially with redistricting controlled by the other side, I don't expect a Dem wave in Florida.

I would hate to see Grayson branded a three-time loser. For now, I think he is playing things safe. As much as I enjoy his past bombast, safe is the right thing for him to do.

The Wrong Inspiration

An interesting political phenomenon of the last 50 years has been the shift of "Support Israel" from being a banner message for the Democratic Party to one for the Republicans. Today, we seem to be at, I hope, a point where blind trust in Israel's good intentions is on the decline within American foreign policy.

But I get very discouraged when I see a message like this from Rep. Dan Webster, R-Winter Park. Webster went onto Good Life 45 to espouse a belief that continuing foreign aid to Israel guaranteed "God's Hand" would remain on this country. (h/t to Think Progress on this)

Here is YouTube of his appearance:



Webster's talk of how he "doesn't like giving money to our enemies" but "loves giving money to Israel" is problematic in a lot of ways. Of course, the position should not be dismissed out of hand. I, too, dislike how much foreign aid we give to nations which are openly hostile to the United States and which seem unconcerned about funding efforts that threaten our own national interest.

But what makes Israel our great friend? Certainly Benjamin Netanyahu did not seem friendly toward America during his recent meeting with Barack Obama, attacking our president as an ignorant fool in fornt of international press while being hosted at the White House. Israel's media called the get-together tense and cold. And in the midst of that, Bibi mischaracterized Obama's policy on a Palestinian State as a radical departure from past American positions, when it in fact was not. Webster may disagree with Obama's positions on Israel, and that fine, but I think the current friction between our leaders and Israel's leaders shows the nation is not our best friend.

But Webster's logic is what leaves me flabbergasted. He doesn't argue that supporting Israel is in our nation's best interest, or that Israel has been a valuable foreign policy ally. He argues that our nation must act based on religious conviction. Without getting all Church-and-Statey about that, making decisions about providing financial or political support for other nation's based on a particular interpretation of God's will is extraordinarily dangerous and foolish, and should not be considered in important decision-making processes in Washington, D.C. Webster obviously has a friendly audience on this television show, but his constituents as a whole should be appalled by this type of worldview.

Religious views have always played too great a role in American foreign policy in Israel. Whether influential Jews in the Democratic Party or evangelicals in the Republican Party are promoting this, the decision to endorse a foreign power, especially one with a horrendous record on human rights, should not be decided based on a desire to satisfy God.

Personally, I don't think God wants to engage in political gamesmanship. But my own values also conflict with the notion that ethnic segregation of the sort Netanyahu has supported for years would not meet the test of "What Would Jesus Do." I both disagree with Webster's suggestion God will look favorably on our support for a barbaric and detestable administration and in the notion that God's Hand should be the desired goal of any granting in foreign aid. If that makes me radical, then radicals far outnumber the people in this world who think Webster's view is mainstream.

DCCC Recruiting Against Rivera, Webster, West

Apparently the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is in Florida scouting out challengers for several seats. Via Post of Politics:

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Israel said he’s been in Florida all week recruiting candidates and raising money. He mentioned freshmen Reps. David Rivera, R-Miami, and Daniel Webster, R-Orlando, as other top Democratic targets in Florida.
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The Post is obviously focused on Allen West, but it's frankly a given that a solid challenger will surface against that nutjob. West 2012 is truly the right's version of Alan Grayson 2010, an ideologue who gives the base happy with dramatic rhetoric but who has the misfortune of representing a swing district. Absent a GOP wave, and the there frankly isn't any room for one after the historic Republican pickups in 2010, this seat is almost certainly heading back into blue hands.

As for the other two? That really all depends on how much the state Legislature wants to save the seats.

I suspect the folks in Tallahassee will let West twist in the wind. There is really no way to make this district safe for the red team without hurting another incumbent like Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Southeast Florida is really Democratic territory, and having someone like West in power is such a fluke, nobody who looks at the numbers for even a second will view this as anything but a lost cause.

Webster, though, will probably see that district redrafted in his favor. Recall, it wasn't so long ago Webster was in the Legislature, where he was known as one of the most collegial and stand-up guys in the chamber. I know, Alan Grayson will remind us Webster is also a right-wing nut, but that strategy wasn't the right one in 2010, and it won't be in 2012 either. My guess is Webster's district will have a little less Orlando, a little more Lake County, and become a safe seat from now until whenever Webster is ready to retire.

I don't like it. But that's the way it is.

As for Rivera, I hope someone in Tallahassee does some real soul-searching on this one. The truth is this district is almost impossible to make safe for one party or the other. It was created in 2000 so Mario Diaz-Balart could go to Congress, but Diaz-Balart now represents a different district. Rivera, on the other hand, is on the road to being the biggest embarrassment to his party in the entire country. Already under investigation, and capable of showing disrespect for all kinds of laws, the man is truly a pox on the political profession.

But what to do about it? The Tally crew can try and make it impossible for a Democrat to win there, but the district is largely Hispanic, and the further we get from the Kennedy-Castro conflicts, the less Republican the South Florida Hispanic population gets. That is why a decade after the last redistricting process, MDB fled his own hand-drawn district.

In order to hold this seat, the Republicans really need something the seat has never had, a really strong incumbent. Diaz-Balart grew less popular every year, and if not for the GOP wave last cycle, Rivera's scandals would probably have sunk his run. The GOP needs to recruit a new candidate, but that will be hard. It could be easier if the new lines make for a safer general election, but I am guessing Joe Garcia is getting ready to throw all his power at this one, and that he is unlikely to see a primary challenge.

I'm curious why Steve Israel isn't out recruiting against Sandy Adams or Steve Southerland, or for that matter any veteran Republicans. If we want to make a difference in turning Florida blue for anything but the presidential election, we really need to compete statewide.

But perhaps Israel is aware that everything is subject to redistricting. Until new lines are drawn in the sand, it is difficult to speculate just what seats are vulnerable to a flip. So stay tuned.

Moving the Agenda Leftward

The new NY Times interview with Alan Grayson is great reading, but it also is important in reminding what is at stake in the next two years politically for House Democrats. I want to take issue with a certain tone of the story that suggests Grayson's thinking is not shared through the beltway, but I fear it may be true.

Let me point at a statement by writer Michael Barbaro instead of a line from Grayson to make my point.

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"While surveying the wreckage of the November elections that cost him his seat and looking to the Congressional term ahead, Mr. Grayson posits that many Democrats have not been acting Democratic enough.

Judging by the results of the midterm elections, it does not exactly seem to be a widespread sentiment.

But at a moment when centrism seems to be the party’s antidote to a redrawn political landscape, Mr. Grayson is setting forth a radically different playbook of sharp elbows and unapologetic liberalism.
---

If the lesson that Beltway Democrats take away from the November elections is that they should be more meek, give greater latitude to the right and demonstrate a greater level of spinelessness, then they will be part of an ineffective minority forever. I am afraid many of those left standing in Washington will ignore both the frustration among its base for failing to deliver results and the effectiveness of the GOP minority in becoming more strident in opposition.

Now, I am the first to acknowledge Grayson did not run a very good campaign this year. I noted in September that his Taliban Dan ads did far more to make Dan Webster look like a sympathetic figure and himself appear a raving lunatic. After a couple runs as the insurgent challenger trying to tear down an incumbent, I am afraid Grayson never learned how to run as the incumbent himself.

But his actions in Congress turned him into a national hero among the left, and helped generate financial support from across the country. That should mean something to Democrats looking at their own re-election campaigns in two years.

More importantly, though, is that voters will have zero incentive in two years to return the Democrats to power if the party is spending its days in Washington watering down its own agenda to satisfy a party in the majority. More than ever, Democrats in the House must be acting as the loyal opposition. They shouldn't join in with John Boehner's army. They should expose the overreaches by a tea-party driven GOP at every possible step.

It always strikes me that the GOP is better at being in the minority. They use procedure to stop actions they find heinous. They demand a place in the national debate even if they are losing legislative battles. They compromise little, and refuse to let their brand get tarnished with legislation they don't believe in.

Now, the Democrats are entering a session in which they are the minority. They ought to learn more from the GOP which just took over, and they ought to appreciate the fact placating, compromising Blue Dogs took the greatest hit of any Democratic group this fall. As Daily Kos noted immediately after the election, more than half of the Blue Dog caucus was fed their dogfood on Election Day and sent home with nothing but a congeniality award for their work across their aisle.

Alan Grayson lost, but so did Allen Boyd. And while Boyd was quick to blame the liberals, playing to the center earned him no points with conservative Panhandle voters interested in having a predictable Republican representing them. Even as it became clear Boyd would lose, the press was wringing its hands over how a conservative Democrat could be in trouble. In truth, it's obvious. Conservative voters didn't care how often Boyd sided with them on issues as long as he continued to go on the field in a blue jersey, vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker and stand with President Obama during the president's expected visits here two years from now.

Now, no one is talking about Boyd running again, but many are urging Grayson to make a fresh run at the seat. I suspect redistricting will make that a hard go, and would rather Grayson find a career in punditry, but it says something that enthusiasm still exists for a candidate supposedly ousted because he was too liberal, but none exists for a seven-term incumbent who promised to be just conservative enough.

I'm Gonna Miss This Guy

Ladies and gentleman, the nearly-late but always great Alan Grayson:

Dan Webster just ain't gonna bring posters every day. Probably not even a Berkin.

Hat tip to Kenneth Quinnell.

It's Election Night in Florida

Update 2: It's a new day in Florida, and a lousy one. Yes, we lost every race I was following. Every stinkin' one. Florida elected criminals, torturers and zealots. So my predictions below seem particular naive today. On the bright side, this blog might have been really boring for the next year or so had this crazy cast of teabaggers just drooped away into the night, so stay tuned, and keep following these rantings.

Update: I forgot to put this on but the amendment fight looks to be heading in a pretty specific direction right now. Only 2 (the military tax exemption), 5 and 6 (Fair Districts) are on the road to passage. The Hometown Democracy, Public Finance repeal and Class-Size revision are all well south of 60 percent right now.

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... and everywhere else, I know. Still, I thought I would once again do some live-blogging of just the most important races in the Sunshine State. I have posted my hopes, dreams, and pragmatic predictions on the blog already, and will update with results through the evening.

My hope for months has been that the elections will become more localized than the chattering class has predicted. Polls of late have made me doubt in that hope, but I still believe the GOP wave tonight can be ebbed a little bit in Florida.

For the sake of accountability, here are my rosy predictions from a few months ago, when I suggested every incumbent Congressman in Florida would be re-elected. I no longer believe that, but it would be nice. But while most national pundits believe our three most endangered Congressmen - Grayson, Boyd and Kosmas - all go down, I believe at least one, maybe two, will live through the night. The Senate race is gone, but we should be able to take the Governor's mansion, and maybe even one of the other Cabinet posts.

Links to my race-by-race posts are below:

FL-Sen: Meek-Rubio-Crist

FL-Gov: Sink-Scott

FL-02: Boyd-Southerland

FL-08: Grayson-Webster

FL-12: Edwards-Ross

FL-10: Justice-Young

FL-22: Klein-West

FL-24: Kosmas-Adams

FL-25: Garcia-Rivera

FL-Cabinet: Gelber-Bondi, Maddox-Putnam, Atwater-Ausley

FL-08: Grayson-Webster

Update 2: Grayson has officially conceded. It appears he was beaten very badly too. Again, very sad.

Update: Forget it. Grayson is done. And I am very, very sad.

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Probably the race being watched by more progressive bloggers around the country. Alan Grayson is exactly what liberals want from a Congressman, and he has the financial success to prove that. Still, most pundits have moved this race into the Lean Republican column.

I think a lot of that has to do with backlash against the Taliban Dan ad. I criticized that ad too, but it wasn't so much because of its content. I just think it was a bad move to go so negative. It earned Dan Webster a lot of national donations, and it made Grayson look weak and desperate.

Nevertheless, I believe Grayson will pull this out. The district leans blue these days, and he has organized his army for a tough fight before. As I said in my main post, I believe we will not lose all three of our most endangered incumbents tonight, and I think Grayson has the best chance to pull this one out.

The Kosmas Plan. The Grayson Plan

Central Florida this year may offer the best example of campaign experimentation for Democrats in this entire campaign cycle as Suzanne Kosmas and Alan Grayson take starkly different approaches to re-election strategies. If one of these incumbents fall in November and the other remains standing, it will set the tone for years on how campaigns in swing districts are waged.

Kosmas is playing the ultimate moderate. She supports the Bush tax cuts, piddled around on Obamacare and has disappointed liberals with a Progressive rating which makes Allen Boyd look like a leftist. She is trying to be what many, including myself, believe is a dying out creature: the Southern conservative Democrat.

Grayson, meanwhile, is the ultimate fighting Democrat. He calls out social conservatism for being outside the mainstream, assaults right-wing health care policy, and fills his coffers with national donations as a result. This is the campaign most of us in the blogosphere have wanted from Democrats. It is what we hoped Howard Dean would do, and after that campaign imploded, what we wished so badly John Kerry had done.

But the "conventional wisdom" has always been, when the going gets tough, run to the center. Never mind that in any sport known to man, the most successful plays normally come from running up the sides.

Right now, Congress is breaking session, and infighting between the conservative Democrats like Kosmas and the liberals like Grayson has resulted in no vote being taken on the tax cuts, either those that benefit the rich, whom Kosmas is apparently quite worried about, or those that affect the rest of us.

There isn't enough polling being done on either of these seats, despite being the most watched Congressional races in the state. Kosmas and Grayson both have released internals which show themselves leading. But Sunshine State just released a poll that shows Grayson behind Dan Webster by 7 points. The NRCC says Kosmas is behind Sandy Adams by 10.

Obviously, everything is still in the air, and the next five weeks are go-time for both incumbents.

I want both freshmen to win re-election, of course. Kosmas is far from my favorite Democrat, but she's better than Rapey McNovotes. But given the choice, I would rather see Grayson re-elected and Kosmas go down than vice versa. While I was hard on the Grayson ad yesterday, I do kind of hope the name Taliban Dan sticks. More importantly, though, I want a declaration that sticking to one's principles and fighting for a liberal cause is not political foolishness, and that a progressive agenda has its place in mainstream America, not just liberal strongholds.

It's still a real possibility both of them could lose, which would suck, but at least would leave no room people to blame being liberal for Grayson's downfall. More important than any candidate is the right for a progressive agenda to be treated with equal respect in the marketplace of ideas, especially when right-wing fanaticism is so often given a pass.

Hey Alan, I'd Rather They Look Crazy

Alan Grayson has sparked a big argument over semantics with an ad which really could have done a lot of good. The issue at hand is an excerpt from a speech by Republican challenger Dan Webster to religious men about the role of genders in marriage, and a quote a film editor just found a little too precious.

"She should submit to me. That's in the Bible."

Of course, as local media have already noted, he said a little more. A full excerpt via the Orlando Sentinel:

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Find a verse. I have a verse for my wife; I have verses for my wife. Don't pick the ones that say, um, she should submit to me. That's in the Bible, but pick the ones that you're supposed to do. So instead, love your wife, even as Christ loved the church and gave himself for it, as opposed to wives submit yourself to your own husband. She can pray that if she wants to, but don't you pray it.

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So what's the difference. Not all that much, really, except the Grayson ad makes it seem like Webster wanted men to go enforce this scripture, and Webster was actually telling them it was up to women to consciously submit to their husbands, and that men should worry about their own action. Either way, I consider a little weird and antiquated.

But I wish Grayson wasn't going this route. It's patronizing and distracting. And it does as much to energize the defensive right as to fire up the left.

The frustrating thing is that Grayson nails Webster on some legitimate public policy positions which fall outside mainstream philosophy. Remember when I noted pro-life groups are touting some 63 House candidates who oppose abortion even in cases of rape or when it saves a mother's life? Webster is now on that list.

The problem is, none of that is getting discussed because of Submit-gate. You have Markos Moulitsas, who is particularly protective of the American Taliban brand, defending Grayson. But Adam Serwer is tearing up the advertisement at the Washington Post. All of this is turning the conversation to Grayson's campaign tactics and away from the fact Dan Webster is kinda nuts.

I always figured Webster would be the toughest person for Grayson to face in the general election, and that is because Webster is the opposite of Grayson in every way. Grayson is known for being willing to fight hard on the floor of Congress. Webster was known for running the state House in a way that allowed Dems a voice on legislation even though Republicans held significant majorities. If Grayson is the king of righteous anger, Webster is the master of calm demeanor. When Webster was considering resigning from the state Senate a few years ago to seek higher office, a bipartisan group of legislators devoted time on the Senate floor to ask Webster not to leave because he was too well-liked within Tallahassee. He makes a difficult target for Grayson's blowtorch tactics.

But as it happens, Grayson is right on the issues, and Webster is right of Attila the Hun. He was the one who sponsored a bill in 2008 requiring women to get ultrasounds before abortions, a bill which a few years later would get passed and sent to Gov. Crist's desk. He pushed for elimination of the intangibles tax under Jeb Bush, just one of the many tax give-aways to the rich which Democrats need to exploit this year in order to energize the middle class.

This is what the voters in Florida's 8th need to learn about Webster. They know he is a nice guy, and spending campaign money convincing them otherwise is just a waste. People need to realize the reckless, right-wing social and fiscal policies that leave this nation economically wasted and far too far from free were promoted in large part by Webster.

Focus on that in the future, Alan. Please don't submit us to more of this worthless praddle.

A Primary Day Experiment

So I am told there is a primary election in Florida today. The real game kicks off tomorrow morning after we know exactly what the November election will look like in Florida, but tonight, I attempt an experiment in blog coverage. I have created blog posts below on every major statewide and Congressional election being waged in Florida tonight. As the results flow in, I will update each of these posts.

I will also have a post above this one tonight declaring the winners as we learn them. It will be an adventure. Of course, I have some professional obligations tonight as well, and do plan to tuck my kids in at some point. So this may all fall apart. But hopefully this turns out fantastic and can be duplicated again in November.

Here are links to my posts.

FL-Senate: Is is Meek or Greene?

FL-Governor: Will the GOP pick McCollum or Scott?

FL-02: Can Boyd fend off Lawson?

FL-08: Who will face Grayson in November?

FL-17: A successor for Meek is chosen.

FL-24: Kosmas has a primary and the GOP names a challenger

FL-Attorney General: Both parties have unpredictable contests.

Other House races: Of little consequence, but who knows?

Primary Day - FL-08

Update: All the media are calling this for Webster. Orange County is still not reporting all numbers, but that seems a safe call. He is beating Long almost 2-to-1 and it seems mathematically difficult to turn this around. The surprising thing to me is how much of a lead Webster took tonight.

By all rights, he should have been the presumptive nominee except that he entered the race late. A former state Speaker and a successful, well-liked state Senator, he had the name-recognition and the know-how to win. He was also likely the toughest opponent for Grayson to face.

I still have confidence Grayson's star power will carry him to re-election, but the Republicans want blood. Now that we have a clear challenger, I'd like to see some legitimate polls on this race (I know, I know).

Update: Numbers are in from big areas, and it seems like Dan Webster is winning. Right now he has almost 40 percent to Long's 22. Biggest surprise? O'Donoghue is only in at 6 right now. Nothing yet from Osceola.

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So who dares take on super-liberal Alan Grayson? Republicans have been falling all over themselves for the chance. We learn tonight who the GOP nominee will be. In contention as Dan Webster, Bruce O'Donoghue, Todd Long, Kurt Kelly, Dan Fanelli, Ross Bieling and Patricia Sullivan.

You better believe this will be a fight to watch in November. Grayson is the first Democrat to hold this seat in decades, and he won it just a few years after Republicans in the Legislature tried to liberal-proof it. Why are those big Grayson ads running all the time on DailyKos and other sites? Because Grayson will have to run a very hard campaign. If he wins, that will be fantastic for the liberal movement as a whole.

But there are good GOP contenders here. The race in November hangs very much on the type of candidate Republicans choose, and how divided the party faithful will be after this fractious primary. May the games begin!

Florida in House Republicans' Sights

A major ad buy shows the National Republican Congressional Committee will focus heavily on dragon-slaying this year, according to Politico. The NRCC has targeted 40 incumbent Democrats, including three in Florida. The list is not especially surprising, with Allen Boyd, Alan Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas making it onto the slate. The biggest surprise to me is that Ron Klein was ignored.

Of course, this strategy offers an opportunity for Democrats seeking open seats, most notably Joe Garcia and Lori Edwards. At least for now, the NRCC seems content to let those races play out on their own. Because this proved popular last go, I will links to my race-by-race take on where things stand now in Florida's most heated house battles.

FL-02: Allen Boyd

FL-08: Alan Grayson

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas

FL-22: Ron Klein

FL-25 and FL-12: Joe Garcia and Lori Edwards

FL-08: Grayson, Ultimate Fighting Dem

Those of us who long ago tired of milquetoast Democrats constantly reasoning their way through public debate have fallen in love with Alan Grayson. Having grown up in Lake County, I have been particularly fascinated. I grew up sitting at the smallest table during mock debates in school. The very notion a liberal Democrat is representing Eustis right now is something I find confusing and exhilarating. But this Fall, it will truly put to test whether being a fighting lefty is a wise move even in swing districts.

Let me cite an odd source, this Errol Louis column in the New York Daily News where Grayson lays out the higher stakes for his re-election fight:

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"I am the first Democrat to represent Orlando in 34 years," he told me. "If I do win reelection, and 25 Democrats go down because they were too weak, too indecisive and pretended to be Republicans, then that will be a learning moment for all the Democrats."

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So far, the strategy has worked splendidly. Grayson is doing what some Republicans mastered years ago and turning his House perch into a national podium. By offering a strident voice to progressives, he has won a national reputation, and reaped huge rewards for his campaign warchest. He has obviously won the scorn of the right as well, and I am sure many people in McCollum country feel this usurper must be turned back.

But riled conservatives and the presumption Grayson would be vulnerable has actually hurt the GOP in a couple ways. Most notably, the primary field is mega-crowded. Former Senate candidate Dan Webster might have been an establishment favorite if he entered the race sooner, but now businessman Bruce O'Donoghue has built up significant name recognition, attorney and talk radio guy Todd Long has commissioned polls that show him leading. Official TEA Party candidate Peg Dunmire has also severely muddied the waters, and is strengthening cred with the far right despite people trying to tie her to Grayson.

It may not be as hard as people think for Republicans to pull constituencies back together after a tough August primary. But it will be hard for an individual candidate to bring together financing. That is probably why the NRCC decision to target this district means so much right now. But I expect the Democrats will toss a good deal of dough into this on Grayson's behalf. Money should still favor the incumbent, and I think this is a very winnable race.

Finance Shows Blue Tide

The new campaign finance figures for Florida Congressional races leave me more optimistic than ever about the prospects of Sunshine State Democrats in November. Call my glasses rose-collared, but I think it seems increasingly likely that if a Republican wave truly strikes the country, it won't have a great effect here. That obviously makes me far more upbeat about Democratic performance than most, but let me explain.

For starters, just look at the statewide summary released by the Federal Elections Commission. Now recall that Republicans already hold the majority of House seats in Florida15-10. So the fact Republican House candidates raised $20 million to Democrats $18 million isn't indicative of greater statewide support as much as it is the number of incumbents with strong support. To really figure where things stand takes a closer look at the numbers.

Now let's look at the House races in play. I am only going to opine on the seats which pundits list as toss-ups, leans and likelys. Don't try and convince me we have a really good shot at taking out Cliff Stearns this year.

Because this post took me much longer to write than I expected, I am trying something new here. I am making every race I analyze its own post, and providing here a sort of table of contents. And this is more than a shameful, shameful way of drumming up my traffic (feel free to click the ads). It also will allow any commenters to post directly to the post on the race they care most about. So disagree with me on FL-02 but agree on FL-25? Just tear me apart on one post, and then feel free to shower with praise on the other.

The short story is I think we will at worst hold our current number of Democratic seats in Florida, but see a way to pick up one seat in FL-25 while defending all other ground in the sunshine State.

FL-02: Incumbent Allen Boyd (D)

FL-08: Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)

FL-12: Open Seat (R)

FL-22: Incumbent Ron Klein (D)

FL-24: Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas (D)

FL-25: Open Seat (R)

FL-08: Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)

FL-08: Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)

Growing up in this area of Florida, I never expected to see a Democrat represent the 8th, so it isn't surprising to me that the Republicans, upset at Ric Keller's defeat in '08, would want this seat back. They seem to have a good line-up of candidates vying for the race, but Grayson in two short years has set himself up as the newest star of the liberal movement. He has embarked on massive promotional and fund-raising efforts which have turned him into a national figure, and as such, he will be difficult to beat.

Bottom line? Grayson is sitting on $1.4 million in cash on hand. That could fund a Senate race. Of course, the right would love to pick him off too, and plenty of dough has been split among the Republican challengers. But a late primary benefits Grayson tremendously. It remains unclear who the GOP challenger will be in this race, and whether the party will be able to coalesce around that candidate in two short months.

The best choice is probably retired state Sen. Dan Webster, a former state Speaker and an historically-celebrated leader among Florida conservatives. But thanks to a late entry and divided loyalties, Webster has only about $165,000 in the bank. Businessman Bruce O'Donoghue, in contrast, has almost $300,000. Two other Republicans - Kurt Kelly and William Todd Long - have more than $100,000 cash on hand, which likely won't make them top-tier but will be enough to muddle the race more.

In short, Grayson should be a favorite for re-election as things stand today. The ultimate GOP nominee will have a lot of work in front of them to make this competitive, but that is far from impossible.

Stop the King-Making

The invulnerability of incumbents in Florida was explored and verified by Politifact today, a day after a judge tossed a proposal by the Legislature intended to protect lawmakers' ability to craft an even stronger suit of armor. For those who witnessed the reapportionment process in 2002, all of this confirms just what a mess was made of the last redistricting process. Unfortunately, I remain unconvinced that a better system will exist in two years, but forces of good are at work on the issue, and I wish them the best.

As I have written before, the over-exertion of political desires has always hurt reapportionment. Historically, those lawmakers who chair the committees in the Legislature tasked with reapportionment have ended up with Congressional seats of their own. Karen Thurman. Mario Diaz-Balart. Ginny Brown-Waite. Peter Deutsch. What do all of these current and former U.S. Representatives have in common? If you said they all ran away from their own voters to run in their brother's district, well, you only got one out of four.

But more than likely, you correctly guessed that each one as redistricting chair made sure districts were drawn which made their own promotion to the U.S. House much easier. This isn't about party. This is all about power, and very personal power at that.

Of course, there was something particularly disturbing about the way the process went down in 2002. It reached beyond a few specific districts, and was more important than the GOP's determination to get two to four more seats in Congress. While we in the press were focused on the upcoming Thurman v. Brown-Waite contest that would inevitably come, most of the lawmakers in Tallahassee were doing something more selfish. The GOP at the time had three-to-one control of the state House and near that in the state Senate. But the partisan domination was not the biggest thing that really happened that year.

The first wind I got of it came when all the state Senate districts got renumbered. Why would that happen, I asked? Soon it was pointed out to me that in most cases, even-numbered districts became odd-numbered. The reason was a complicated loophole in Florida's term limit rules, limits which had just gone into effect shortly before the redistricting process. Florida voters had decided "Eight is Enough" when it came to years of service for lawmakers. For those in the House, "Eight" meant eight. State representatives run every two years, and there was no way around that. But the state Senators found a fix. Because the even-numbered districts run staggered from the odd-numbered, changing the numerology offered the chance for incumbents to cheat an extra two years, presuming they had not already served their eight years and were not already planning to retire.

Too much techno-babble? Let me use this Central Florida example. I lived in District 11, and my state Senator had been elected to a four-year term in 1996, then re-elected in 2000. Every seat had to go up for re-election after redistricting, but theoretically,my Senator in 2002 should only have run for a two-year term, then been forced to retire. Instead, I suddenly found myself in District 20. That meant my Senator, after serving a four-year term and a two-year term, was running for another four-year term. If she had served out her term, she would have gotten 10 years before being term-limited. The same situation benefited nearly every Senator, regardless of party.

Incidentally, I was told then that state Sen. Dan Webster engineered this trick. He is now challenging Alan Grayson for a seat in the House.

But that was only the beginning. Even more discreet things were being done by the lackies drawing the lines. Computer technology offered lawmakers tools and skills unheard of in the prior 1992 redistricting process. Racial gerrymandering? Kid stuff. With new demographic software and precision election records, lawmakers could cut neighborhoods where they had performed poorly clear out of their districts. Democrats and Republicans could literally swap constituent strongholds. Sure, Democrats made a fuss about the GOP protecting its majority, but somehow lawmakers in hotly contested districts in 2000 suddenly had districts so one-sided challengers could not be found for them by November 2002.

Indeed, lawmakers suddenly found themselves better protected than ever before, enough so that the Legislature in 2004, which polls showed as the most unpopular in the nation, had every single member seeking re-election emerge victorious. This doesn't even discuss the number of districts where no re-election battle need be waged at all. As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, more than half the state House districts in the state this year only have one of the two major parties competing for the seat, and many of those saw lawmakers elected with no opposition.

Fair Districts Florida wants the next process to go better. I have my doubts over how effective their ballot language will be. Promises to eliminate any "intent" not to favor a political party seem to me rather hard to enforce. But it's a start. Should they end up on the ballot, I will vote for Amendments 5 and 6. The intent is good, even if the proposals lack sharp enough teeth.

Of course, the amendments are being challenged in court as well, and by none other than Reps. Diaz-Balart, R-Miami, and Corrine Brown, D-Jacksonville. At least the two can each offer some humor to this saga. After getting elected in a new, custom-fit district in 2002, Diaz-Balart is running for his life away from his own voters and running for his retiring brother Lincoln's seat instead. (Get the joke now?) Brown represents one of the worst gerrymandered districts in Florida, one that actually had to be redrawn by a judge more than a decade ago but still looks crooked. These two are bipartisan poster children what is wrong with redistricting the way it works in Florida today.

With any luck, things will be better in the near future, but in the meantime I would rather not trust my political opponents with the redistricting process come 2012. If one party has 3-to-one margin control of either Chamber at that point, we are in for another decade of very ugly politics in the Sunshine State.

Is Grayson Propping the Tea Party?

Update: The Orlando Tea Party informs me Guetzloe was appointed to a Small Business Regulatory Council.

Connections between Florida Tea Party co-founder Doug Guetzloe and liberal behemoth Alan Grayson make the question an enticing one, but ultimately I think conservatives are wasting their efforts making aconnection. Though if they want this election to be about political process, fine by me.

Just so liberals aren't frightened by this, there is no philosophical connection between Rep. Grayson, D-Orlando, and the official Florida Tea Party. Rather, this is a question of whether he engages in what Richard Nixon called "ratfucking." That is, is Grayson meddling in opposition campaigning to ease his own path to re-election? TPM did some research after connections between Grayson and the Tea Party made news last week.

To tell the truth, most of this seems innocuous. Grayson hired conservative pollster Victoria Torres early this year, and she has since filed as a Tea Party candidate. But considering Grayson spent a good portion of his time in the first quarter trying to demonstrate his across-the-aisle popularity, that isn't surprising. Check out this March press release where Grayson touts he is more popular that Charlie Crist among GOP voters. Demonstrating this sort of broad appeal is important for Grayson, who beat out incumbent Ric Keller two years ago in a seat drawn for conservatives to win. Cook Political Report still lists the race as a toss-up, and while Grayson can raise a lot of money raging as a Congressman with Guts, he also needs to prove to party leaders he can win re-election and take a good share of moderate voters.

The biggest issue I see with Grayson, though, was reported by the Orlando Sentinel. Excerpt below:

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Grayson appointed Guetzloe to a small-business advisory council, advertised on his conservative radio show and gave his son an internship in his congressional office.

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The advertising doesn't bother me at all. Democrats frequently buy ad time on conservative shows and stations, and Republicans do the same on liberal radio. Truth is that politically engaged voters are worth reaching out to regardless of persuasion. Indeed, there is as likely as not an ad for Marco Rubio on this website right now.

But I can't figure why Grayson would be taking business regulation advice from a guy who put his own weight behind making an official Tea Party political party in Florida. And I don't know why he would want the son of a conservative political operative working in his office, even as an intern. Now, the term 'intern' can include a lot of things. It wouldn't be unusual for a aspiring young Republican to have an internship in a Democratic congressman's office. Elected officials typically like getting young people engaged. An internship wouldn't shape policy, but could do a lot of clerical work while observing the nuts and bolts of operating a Congressional office. What is unusual here is that this intern was the son of a conservative radio host, not just a kid from the Eustis High School Republican Club. I would like to know more about this.

Of course, no one has made a connection to date between Grayson and Peg Dunmire, the Tea Party candidate challenging Grayson in the race for District 8. The only benefit Grayson gets directly from the existence of an official Tea Party is an opponent who will help split the conservative vote in November. Unless he did something which directly got her on the ballot, I don't think he could be fingered in any real meddling.

Certainly, though, any right-winger who wants to unseat Grayson is wiser running as a Republican, even if the Republican field is already so full. Dan Webster and Bruce O'Donoghue are duking it out in the Republican primary, with Dan Fanelli has won some attention for zany racist ads as well. But while the GOP has a crowded field, there can be only one Republican nominee, and whoever that is will have an easier time ousting Grayson without a Tea Party candidate on the November ballot as well.

But at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter whether Grayson is really propping up the Tea Party so he can coast to re-election. Nothing about that is illegal, just a little shady. The real question is whether it will all work. And right now, Grayson seems poised for re-election in what should be among the toughest races in the nation. That doesn't make him guilty of an evil plot. It makes him the beneficiary of one.