Primary Day - FL-08

Update: All the media are calling this for Webster. Orange County is still not reporting all numbers, but that seems a safe call. He is beating Long almost 2-to-1 and it seems mathematically difficult to turn this around. The surprising thing to me is how much of a lead Webster took tonight.

By all rights, he should have been the presumptive nominee except that he entered the race late. A former state Speaker and a successful, well-liked state Senator, he had the name-recognition and the know-how to win. He was also likely the toughest opponent for Grayson to face.

I still have confidence Grayson's star power will carry him to re-election, but the Republicans want blood. Now that we have a clear challenger, I'd like to see some legitimate polls on this race (I know, I know).

Update: Numbers are in from big areas, and it seems like Dan Webster is winning. Right now he has almost 40 percent to Long's 22. Biggest surprise? O'Donoghue is only in at 6 right now. Nothing yet from Osceola.

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So who dares take on super-liberal Alan Grayson? Republicans have been falling all over themselves for the chance. We learn tonight who the GOP nominee will be. In contention as Dan Webster, Bruce O'Donoghue, Todd Long, Kurt Kelly, Dan Fanelli, Ross Bieling and Patricia Sullivan.

You better believe this will be a fight to watch in November. Grayson is the first Democrat to hold this seat in decades, and he won it just a few years after Republicans in the Legislature tried to liberal-proof it. Why are those big Grayson ads running all the time on DailyKos and other sites? Because Grayson will have to run a very hard campaign. If he wins, that will be fantastic for the liberal movement as a whole.

But there are good GOP contenders here. The race in November hangs very much on the type of candidate Republicans choose, and how divided the party faithful will be after this fractious primary. May the games begin!

FL-08: Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)

FL-08: Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)

Growing up in this area of Florida, I never expected to see a Democrat represent the 8th, so it isn't surprising to me that the Republicans, upset at Ric Keller's defeat in '08, would want this seat back. They seem to have a good line-up of candidates vying for the race, but Grayson in two short years has set himself up as the newest star of the liberal movement. He has embarked on massive promotional and fund-raising efforts which have turned him into a national figure, and as such, he will be difficult to beat.

Bottom line? Grayson is sitting on $1.4 million in cash on hand. That could fund a Senate race. Of course, the right would love to pick him off too, and plenty of dough has been split among the Republican challengers. But a late primary benefits Grayson tremendously. It remains unclear who the GOP challenger will be in this race, and whether the party will be able to coalesce around that candidate in two short months.

The best choice is probably retired state Sen. Dan Webster, a former state Speaker and an historically-celebrated leader among Florida conservatives. But thanks to a late entry and divided loyalties, Webster has only about $165,000 in the bank. Businessman Bruce O'Donoghue, in contrast, has almost $300,000. Two other Republicans - Kurt Kelly and William Todd Long - have more than $100,000 cash on hand, which likely won't make them top-tier but will be enough to muddle the race more.

In short, Grayson should be a favorite for re-election as things stand today. The ultimate GOP nominee will have a lot of work in front of them to make this competitive, but that is far from impossible.