Primary Day - FL-08

Update: All the media are calling this for Webster. Orange County is still not reporting all numbers, but that seems a safe call. He is beating Long almost 2-to-1 and it seems mathematically difficult to turn this around. The surprising thing to me is how much of a lead Webster took tonight.

By all rights, he should have been the presumptive nominee except that he entered the race late. A former state Speaker and a successful, well-liked state Senator, he had the name-recognition and the know-how to win. He was also likely the toughest opponent for Grayson to face.

I still have confidence Grayson's star power will carry him to re-election, but the Republicans want blood. Now that we have a clear challenger, I'd like to see some legitimate polls on this race (I know, I know).

Update: Numbers are in from big areas, and it seems like Dan Webster is winning. Right now he has almost 40 percent to Long's 22. Biggest surprise? O'Donoghue is only in at 6 right now. Nothing yet from Osceola.

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So who dares take on super-liberal Alan Grayson? Republicans have been falling all over themselves for the chance. We learn tonight who the GOP nominee will be. In contention as Dan Webster, Bruce O'Donoghue, Todd Long, Kurt Kelly, Dan Fanelli, Ross Bieling and Patricia Sullivan.

You better believe this will be a fight to watch in November. Grayson is the first Democrat to hold this seat in decades, and he won it just a few years after Republicans in the Legislature tried to liberal-proof it. Why are those big Grayson ads running all the time on DailyKos and other sites? Because Grayson will have to run a very hard campaign. If he wins, that will be fantastic for the liberal movement as a whole.

But there are good GOP contenders here. The race in November hangs very much on the type of candidate Republicans choose, and how divided the party faithful will be after this fractious primary. May the games begin!

Is Grayson Propping the Tea Party?

Update: The Orlando Tea Party informs me Guetzloe was appointed to a Small Business Regulatory Council.

Connections between Florida Tea Party co-founder Doug Guetzloe and liberal behemoth Alan Grayson make the question an enticing one, but ultimately I think conservatives are wasting their efforts making aconnection. Though if they want this election to be about political process, fine by me.

Just so liberals aren't frightened by this, there is no philosophical connection between Rep. Grayson, D-Orlando, and the official Florida Tea Party. Rather, this is a question of whether he engages in what Richard Nixon called "ratfucking." That is, is Grayson meddling in opposition campaigning to ease his own path to re-election? TPM did some research after connections between Grayson and the Tea Party made news last week.

To tell the truth, most of this seems innocuous. Grayson hired conservative pollster Victoria Torres early this year, and she has since filed as a Tea Party candidate. But considering Grayson spent a good portion of his time in the first quarter trying to demonstrate his across-the-aisle popularity, that isn't surprising. Check out this March press release where Grayson touts he is more popular that Charlie Crist among GOP voters. Demonstrating this sort of broad appeal is important for Grayson, who beat out incumbent Ric Keller two years ago in a seat drawn for conservatives to win. Cook Political Report still lists the race as a toss-up, and while Grayson can raise a lot of money raging as a Congressman with Guts, he also needs to prove to party leaders he can win re-election and take a good share of moderate voters.

The biggest issue I see with Grayson, though, was reported by the Orlando Sentinel. Excerpt below:

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Grayson appointed Guetzloe to a small-business advisory council, advertised on his conservative radio show and gave his son an internship in his congressional office.

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The advertising doesn't bother me at all. Democrats frequently buy ad time on conservative shows and stations, and Republicans do the same on liberal radio. Truth is that politically engaged voters are worth reaching out to regardless of persuasion. Indeed, there is as likely as not an ad for Marco Rubio on this website right now.

But I can't figure why Grayson would be taking business regulation advice from a guy who put his own weight behind making an official Tea Party political party in Florida. And I don't know why he would want the son of a conservative political operative working in his office, even as an intern. Now, the term 'intern' can include a lot of things. It wouldn't be unusual for a aspiring young Republican to have an internship in a Democratic congressman's office. Elected officials typically like getting young people engaged. An internship wouldn't shape policy, but could do a lot of clerical work while observing the nuts and bolts of operating a Congressional office. What is unusual here is that this intern was the son of a conservative radio host, not just a kid from the Eustis High School Republican Club. I would like to know more about this.

Of course, no one has made a connection to date between Grayson and Peg Dunmire, the Tea Party candidate challenging Grayson in the race for District 8. The only benefit Grayson gets directly from the existence of an official Tea Party is an opponent who will help split the conservative vote in November. Unless he did something which directly got her on the ballot, I don't think he could be fingered in any real meddling.

Certainly, though, any right-winger who wants to unseat Grayson is wiser running as a Republican, even if the Republican field is already so full. Dan Webster and Bruce O'Donoghue are duking it out in the Republican primary, with Dan Fanelli has won some attention for zany racist ads as well. But while the GOP has a crowded field, there can be only one Republican nominee, and whoever that is will have an easier time ousting Grayson without a Tea Party candidate on the November ballot as well.

But at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter whether Grayson is really propping up the Tea Party so he can coast to re-election. Nothing about that is illegal, just a little shady. The real question is whether it will all work. And right now, Grayson seems poised for re-election in what should be among the toughest races in the nation. That doesn't make him guilty of an evil plot. It makes him the beneficiary of one.

Extremists targeting Grayson

There has been much interest in candidates coming out in the District 8 race to challenge Alan Grayson. Not because they seem threatening, but because they seem like such extremists. I wish I could join the 'Look how crazy they are' party, but I find these guys genuinely scary.

For those who don't know, I grew up in Lake County and know Alan Grayson's district quite well. I covered it for the Daily Commercial back when Republican Ric Keller held the seat. I must say I have been stunned as a Congressman attributed as D-Eustis has become the liberal superstar of the class of '08. I wasn't following this race, and was surprised when Keller lost so badly, but figured the whole time we'd get a moderate Democrat from this relatively conservative district.

And that is why these guys scare me. See this video, featured on the front page of Daily Kos today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgdALsV6AmI&feature=player_embedded

That's Dan Fanelli, one of the Republicans looking to take Grayson out. This ad would probably shake up most sensible independent voters, and certainly liberals. I honestly can't recall the last time I saw a video so blatantly racist. Maybe Willie Horton, but this is more overt in so many ways. Really shocking to me is that Fanelli paid to have this produced, and paid for time on TV. Also, whose the Arabic guy and why doesn't he have problems with this?

But I have a feeling this will play well to many voters in the rural portions of this district. When I would bring up racial profiling in Lake County and the problems I had with it, it wasn't uncommon for people to call my thoughts treasonous to my face. Even before 9-11, when I was growing up in the area, people would openly support profiling for blogs. That was in the 1990s.

Now let's talk George Metcalfe, who got the attention of the Rainbow Democratic Club. His issue is with the gays. His Liberty Counsel has fought hard against gay adoption even in some cases where the foster children faced grim alternatives. But what was really notable was when Metcalfe pulled ads in Florida Bar publications that used the word gay as a moderately offensive slur. When moderate right columnist Mike Thomas of the Orlando Sentinel tried to talk to him about this a year ago, Metcalfe wouldn't comment. We'll see how that works moving forward.

He also hails from Leesburg, my home town. MOST of the people I know there never had a problem using the word 'hate' to describe their feelings about homosexuals. I promise gay adoption isn't something that polls well there.

I truly enjoy hearing Grayson do spots on the Bill Maher show and get all this attention from the liberal blogs, but have always worried it would blow up in his face. My family still lives in the Leesburg-Eustis area and tells me he has more support than I realize. I hope that's true, not just because I enjoy him, but because the Republicans seem to have no problem putting up openly bigoted people as the only alternative.

I really hope my remaining colleagues at The Daily Commercial don't shy away from these characters, and from exploring whether these issues are about social conservatism or simple hatred. But I have a sinking feeling these folks will largely get a pass from the local press. Truth is, though, the angry resentment is so strong and vocal in that area, it not only scares reporters from certain subjects, it convinces them that these issues are a legitimate part of public discourse.