It's Election Night in Florida

Update 2: It's a new day in Florida, and a lousy one. Yes, we lost every race I was following. Every stinkin' one. Florida elected criminals, torturers and zealots. So my predictions below seem particular naive today. On the bright side, this blog might have been really boring for the next year or so had this crazy cast of teabaggers just drooped away into the night, so stay tuned, and keep following these rantings.

Update: I forgot to put this on but the amendment fight looks to be heading in a pretty specific direction right now. Only 2 (the military tax exemption), 5 and 6 (Fair Districts) are on the road to passage. The Hometown Democracy, Public Finance repeal and Class-Size revision are all well south of 60 percent right now.

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... and everywhere else, I know. Still, I thought I would once again do some live-blogging of just the most important races in the Sunshine State. I have posted my hopes, dreams, and pragmatic predictions on the blog already, and will update with results through the evening.

My hope for months has been that the elections will become more localized than the chattering class has predicted. Polls of late have made me doubt in that hope, but I still believe the GOP wave tonight can be ebbed a little bit in Florida.

For the sake of accountability, here are my rosy predictions from a few months ago, when I suggested every incumbent Congressman in Florida would be re-elected. I no longer believe that, but it would be nice. But while most national pundits believe our three most endangered Congressmen - Grayson, Boyd and Kosmas - all go down, I believe at least one, maybe two, will live through the night. The Senate race is gone, but we should be able to take the Governor's mansion, and maybe even one of the other Cabinet posts.

Links to my race-by-race posts are below:

FL-Sen: Meek-Rubio-Crist

FL-Gov: Sink-Scott

FL-02: Boyd-Southerland

FL-08: Grayson-Webster

FL-12: Edwards-Ross

FL-10: Justice-Young

FL-22: Klein-West

FL-24: Kosmas-Adams

FL-25: Garcia-Rivera

FL-Cabinet: Gelber-Bondi, Maddox-Putnam, Atwater-Ausley

Justice in Tampa? We Can Hope (but that's not enough)

I see a lot of hope in Florida blogs that Bill Young might be in trouble. I haven't written much about it because, frankly, I don't think he will get the boot this year. Charlie Justice is a good candidate, and in 206 or 2008, might have made a real race of this given the right resources. But at this moment, I don't believe any Republican congressmen in Florida will lose re-election.

That doesn't mean I wouldn't like for it to happen. In a sit-down with Creative Loafing, Justice makes a great case why the anti-incumbent wave gripping America should sweep up Young. But then, I also find it somewhat alarming how representatives are being punished in some places for bringing home the bacon. No surprise, the Tea Party has no problem with a Republican doing that.

For the Loaf:

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"I hold a different view of public service," Justice said. "It's a sacrifice. It's called service for a reason. You aren't there to make a lot of money to pay back your contributors, and that's not what it's supposed to be about. That's what it has been about for [Young]."

Despite the widespread notion that the midterm elections Nov. 2 will prove bad for the party in power, Justice is confident that in the case of Young, voters will be looking for something different.

"Seventy percent hate their incumbent, and he certainly is an incumbent," Justice said. "He isn't going to go and change how government is done up there. He is the government up there."

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The piece nicks Young his role in $128 million worth of earmarks this fiscal year alone, and notes that Justice, a well-likes state Senator, has about the best credentials of any challenger Young has faced in 40 years.

But it also ignores Florida voters are usually not so prone to dump incumbents. Not that it doesn't happen. Ric Keller and Tom Feeney were swept up in a wave two years ago. This year, Allen Boyd, Suzanne Kosmas and, dare I say it, Alan Grayson are having to fight for their lives. But if all three go down, it means there is a Republican wave this year. A few months ago, it looked like voters might simply be anxious to purge any incumbents. But it has become clear the only ones anxious for a human sacrifice are the right-wingers right now.

I hope Justice wins, but I have lot of doubts it can happen. We have better shots at pickups in two open seats this year: Fl-25, where Mario Diaz-Balart fled and Joe Garcia has a great shot at winning, and FL-12, where Adam Putnam is pursuing higher office and where Lori Edwards has an uphill battle but a real shot at winning.