Allen West's Insanity To Hard To Follow

In a different dimension where this blog was the top source of Florida political news that I once dreamed it would be, I wouldn't be following so many other blogs when spotting the latest Allen West gaffe. It earned him the title America's Dumbest Congressman from Daily Kos today, and Washington Monthly has already pointed out West is stark raving mad.

Let me weigh in anyway. Comparing the Democratic messaging machine to Joseph Goebbels is both laughable (the Democrat's have no talent at messaging) and a bit offensive to come from the lips of a man representing a largely Jewish population.

But I actually think there is something more significant here, and it reaches well beyond West. It is this constant idea among conservatives that they are accountable to no one and when someone tries to hold them accountable, it is a sign of some anti-democratic and wicked conspiracy. At a different time, the media might have called bullshit on this, but not today. Ironically, the reason noone will call them out is because they don't want to appear biased to conservatives, who believe everyone in the world who does not share their worldview is biased anyway.

Makes you wonder what 'bias' even means to these people when they believe Allen West is a respectable public servant.

Sigh. More later, I am sure.

West's Religious Bigotry

Allen West apparently believes our foreign policy should mimic that of the leaders of the crusades. In a bizarre weekly address this week (read about it on SaintPetersblog), he seems to suggest having leaders like Mubarak and Gaddafi in charge was the only thing stopping the rise of a new Ottoman Empire.

This is bizarre on so many levels, and it is scary this man has a seat in Congress instead of a corner in a mental institution.

Let's make this more clear than West's raving statements. He supports military dictatorships because he finds Muslims scary. Plain and simple.

Don't believe these right-wing douchebags when they say support religious expression. It is a lie.

Don't believe when they say they have the interests of the United States at heart with their foreign policy. That too is a lie.

West and his ilk want to have a Holy American Empire, a foreign superpower which imposes a religious belief. He supports a cause more nefarious than even the oil companies. His fantasy worldview envisions one where Muslims are either dead or kept at bay by power-hungry dictators who toss the opposition is political prisons. And should men like West grow in political stature within the United States, expect nothing short of that to become common practice here.

The only saving grace is that this latest rant from West is unlikely to find much traction in a world where few people get scared by the thought of the Ottomans coming back. That is a lousy boogeyman. But this sort of dogwhistle politicking will find an audience among bigots and xenophobes who dream of nothing short of genocide and ethnic cleansing when it comes to setting American foreign policy.

American Heroes Have Thicker Skin Than This

There was a time when incumbent members of Florida's Congressional delegation worked together, and didn't insult and undermine one another at every turn. This was a time before men like Allen West somehow found a spot in the delegation. For those who missed this story, Wild West thought it appropriate to call Debbie Wasserman Shultz an "attack dog," "vile," and "not a lady."

What prompted this sexist screed? Wasserman Shultz disagreed with West on a budget vote.

Imagine. The chair of the Democratic National Committee having a different opinion that tea party acolyte Allen West about fiscal policy. Someone slap this woman and put her back in her place.

Sadly, it is no surprise that Allen West would turn toward vicious, personal attacks to argue his political righteousness. What is more amazing to me is the defense of West as some type of invulnerable figure. The Washington Times called West "An American Hero" in a truly comical presentation of the facts which ignores the personal nature of West's attacks and the policy-driven criticism from Wasserman-Shultz.

Let's try applying some logic to this. You cannot claim the ground of American Hero if you cry like a better whenever an opponent tosses a political punch. Apparently, Allen West only knows how to spar with someone if he is holding their head to a barrel and firing shots. But just as right-wingers made a hero of West for violating international law, they see him somehow as a victim even when he is the one to turn a political disagreement into a mudslinging match.

This will raise West's standing with the zany madmen who make up his base, but it will damage him with rational voters, swing voters, the type who show up during presidential election years. West is toast in 2012, and the GOP should know it even if the wackos in the tea party movement can't see past his military stars. This man is as much a disgrace to the U.S. House of Representatives as he was to the Army.

So go ahead and play the victim, you super-mighty "man-talking" embodiment as muscle-bound machismo. All you do is guarantee your own self-destructive demise next November. But fear not. You will have everything from the biased media to the Democrat's vile attacks to blame for voters' despicable return to their senses. I hope you will also be crying about your own party didn't do enough to protect by rigging redistricting or raising funds to promote your raving lunacy.

You are a coward who can't take a hit like a man, and who can't stop yourself from attacking a strong women who you should be working hand-in-hand with to promote the beyond-partisan needs if Broward County voters. And unlike your disgusting behavior while in the military, you will receive an appropriate punishment when voters toss you out on your ear.

Fantastic News From Frankel

I suspect every Democrat in the West Palm Beach area who ever dreamed of heading to Congress is salivating at Allen West's every delicious gaffe, but I suspect we just saw the entry of the next Representative for District 22.

Lois Frankel has entered the race. Via CNN:

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"As a mayor and the mother of a veteran and small business owner, I know what families need to do to get by in these tough times" Frankel said in the statement. "Family budgets must be balanced with thought and care. That is why as Mayor of West Palm Beach we balanced our budget while also promoting economic revitalization."

"I am not running for Congress to win favor with the Washington extremists and I am not motivated the same tired partisan fights. I believe it's about time we put the interests of our local economy and families first," Frankel said.
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She is the mayor of West Palm Beach, but you may remember her as the Democratic leader for the Florida House in 2000, when she fought vehemently, albeit unsuccessfully, to have a legitimate recount after the 2000 fiasco. As a leader of her party and a representative from the Butterfly Ballot garden, she became an articulate and awesome voice for democracy at the time when a national spotlight shined brighter on Florida lawmakers than ever before.

Sadly, her star was rising at a time when GOP politics was taking a firm grip of Florida. It is telling that so many Republican players in that affair - Speaker Tom Feeney, state Sen. Ginny Brown-Waite, Secretary of State Katherine Harris - would find themselves by 2002 winning Congressional campaigns while Frankel left the House and pursued a career in local politics.

Mind you, mayor of West Palm Beach is a significant step up the political food chain compared to state House member, but she always deserved more. At a time when the Republican leadership in Florida is reveling in arrogance and practically anxious to commit some sort of abuse of power, now is the time for Frankel to get the recognition she has so long deserved.

Allen West, the lunatic just elected from the 22nd to the House, provides a fantastic opportunity. Living in swing and committed to symbolizing the ugliest principles in the GOP skeleton closet, he makes the top of every tea party fantasy league pick list and every Democratic strategist's list of likely pickups in 2012.

I had rather thought Ron Klein would try and take this seat back, but that isn't happening. I am fine with that, especially since Klein made some utterly embarrassing votes during his last days on the Hill.

And no offense to Patrick Murphy, but he has to prove himself real quick to prove himself a more viable candidate than Frankel.

The mayor has already paid her dues. Her respect was earned years ago. Now, it is time to reward her for years of service. If we do, I trust she will reward Florida progressives with more dedication and poltical success for years to come.

DCCC Recruiting Against Rivera, Webster, West

Apparently the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is in Florida scouting out challengers for several seats. Via Post of Politics:

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Israel said he’s been in Florida all week recruiting candidates and raising money. He mentioned freshmen Reps. David Rivera, R-Miami, and Daniel Webster, R-Orlando, as other top Democratic targets in Florida.
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The Post is obviously focused on Allen West, but it's frankly a given that a solid challenger will surface against that nutjob. West 2012 is truly the right's version of Alan Grayson 2010, an ideologue who gives the base happy with dramatic rhetoric but who has the misfortune of representing a swing district. Absent a GOP wave, and the there frankly isn't any room for one after the historic Republican pickups in 2010, this seat is almost certainly heading back into blue hands.

As for the other two? That really all depends on how much the state Legislature wants to save the seats.

I suspect the folks in Tallahassee will let West twist in the wind. There is really no way to make this district safe for the red team without hurting another incumbent like Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Southeast Florida is really Democratic territory, and having someone like West in power is such a fluke, nobody who looks at the numbers for even a second will view this as anything but a lost cause.

Webster, though, will probably see that district redrafted in his favor. Recall, it wasn't so long ago Webster was in the Legislature, where he was known as one of the most collegial and stand-up guys in the chamber. I know, Alan Grayson will remind us Webster is also a right-wing nut, but that strategy wasn't the right one in 2010, and it won't be in 2012 either. My guess is Webster's district will have a little less Orlando, a little more Lake County, and become a safe seat from now until whenever Webster is ready to retire.

I don't like it. But that's the way it is.

As for Rivera, I hope someone in Tallahassee does some real soul-searching on this one. The truth is this district is almost impossible to make safe for one party or the other. It was created in 2000 so Mario Diaz-Balart could go to Congress, but Diaz-Balart now represents a different district. Rivera, on the other hand, is on the road to being the biggest embarrassment to his party in the entire country. Already under investigation, and capable of showing disrespect for all kinds of laws, the man is truly a pox on the political profession.

But what to do about it? The Tally crew can try and make it impossible for a Democrat to win there, but the district is largely Hispanic, and the further we get from the Kennedy-Castro conflicts, the less Republican the South Florida Hispanic population gets. That is why a decade after the last redistricting process, MDB fled his own hand-drawn district.

In order to hold this seat, the Republicans really need something the seat has never had, a really strong incumbent. Diaz-Balart grew less popular every year, and if not for the GOP wave last cycle, Rivera's scandals would probably have sunk his run. The GOP needs to recruit a new candidate, but that will be hard. It could be easier if the new lines make for a safer general election, but I am guessing Joe Garcia is getting ready to throw all his power at this one, and that he is unlikely to see a primary challenge.

I'm curious why Steve Israel isn't out recruiting against Sandy Adams or Steve Southerland, or for that matter any veteran Republicans. If we want to make a difference in turning Florida blue for anything but the presidential election, we really need to compete statewide.

But perhaps Israel is aware that everything is subject to redistricting. Until new lines are drawn in the sand, it is difficult to speculate just what seats are vulnerable to a flip. So stay tuned.

West: Muslim Represents Antithesis of US Principles

Well, this will make the next Congressional Black Caucus meeting more fun.

Rep. Allen 'Wild Wild' West told the Shalom Show that Keith Ellison, the first Muslim ever elected to Congress, 'really does represent the antithesis of the principles upon which this country was established.'

This is offensive beyond words, but at this point is no surprise. West, who is insane on most issues, has utterly bigoted views about any member of the Islam faith. The man has derided "Coexist" bumper stickers, called Islam a "fifth column" infiltrating our universities and believes Arabs have been damned by God for being descendants of Ishmael.

All this from a man who cries racism whenever he is politically criticized but who has declared that institutional racism is dead.

But the real irony to me is that Ellison, most famous for his religion, is deeply involved in efforts to improve civility in politics. He is a long-opponent of negative advertising, which he says does more to diminish voter participation than improve a candidate's chances of winning, and he has a history of sincere bipartisanship.

So if fighting low voter turnout and working with leaders of all political ilk are the antithesis of America's founding principles, then I guess West has a point.

Why West Should Be Welcome

Readers of this blog know I see little value in Allen West beyond pure entertainment, but I am pleased he was sworn in today as a member of the Congressional Black Caucus. I think it was both classy of the traditionally-liberal group to welcome him in, and wise of him to accept the invitation.

I realize some respectable liberals have a major problem with his inclusion, especially when white liberals with black constituencies like Rep. Steve Cohen, D-Tennessee, have not been allowed within the group. I also get why Cohen and others would like in the group, and for that matter, why other black conservatives like Tim Scott and J.C. Watts have declined membership.

But ethnic caucuses exist for more reason than simply promoting an agenda favorable to a minority groups. The Congressional Black Caucus stands as a symbol that blacks have a voice in the halls of Congress that is very real. No longer must blacks rely on the Northeastern liberals to fight for their cause. The days when the strongest voice for minorities in Congress had a last name like Kennedy is long-gone. And the blacks holding office today were elected, usually in majority black districts but sometimes - as with West - by white voters. They were not appointed, as the black Congressmen during Reconstruction had been.

If I may, let me quote Allen West from a statement he made to the Daily Caller, back when the suspicious tea bagger never imagines he would get an invite to caucus with the CBC:

"I would be in Congress, and I would be black and so I should be able to sit with them, and again, bring a different perspective."

Now, I think Allen West brings a perspective so different from logical common sense I remain confused how the voters of Southwest Florida could elect him, but they did. And he was rightfully sworn into Congress today. There is not only good reason why he should be allowed in the CBC, but importance to his acceptance in the group.

Weird Events Lead to Kaufman Declining West Offer

Well, this is bizarre. A series of events which led to the lockdown of some schools in Pembroke Pines resulted in radio host Joyce Kaufman declining the offer to be Allen West's chief of staff.

She made the announcement yesterday, so sorry for the tardiness. But basically, the lockdown came after a vague and threatening message regarding violence by a Broward County government building led her to call the authorities.

Via WPLG:

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According to investigators, the e-mail sent to the station said, "I am planning something big around a government building in Broward County, maybe a post office, maybe a school."

Kaufman recently was hired as chief of staff for U.S. Rep.-elect Allen West, but on Thursday afternoon, she announced she would not take the position.

"I will not be used in an electronic lynching by proxy. The insanity of using a Hispanic woman to lynch a black American Army hero elected to Congress -- lynching by proxy," Kaufman said on her show. "What they're trying to do is bring down Congressman-elect Allen West."

"We can't tell from our investigation at this point if the person actually meant to support Ms. Kaufman or if the person was trying to derail Ms. Kaufman by pretending they supported Ms. Kaufman," said Capt. Dan Rakofsky, of the Pembroke Pines Police Department.

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The whole thing is strange, and to me is does sound like a crazy lefty might have been behind it. For that reason, I won't contribute to the wackiness by offering too much commentary on my own to the events of the past 72 hours.

But I will say, the idea of having a Rush Limbaugh-wannabe act of Chief of Staff to Rep. Crazypants was something I had been looking forward too. I guess it is likely now that someone reasonable and sane may run West's office instead, and that is genuinely disappointing.

Crazypants Brings Me Solace

Of all the terrible election outcomes that happened last week, the one which brings me solace is Allen West's victory over Rep. Ron Klein. Not because I think he should have won, mind you. Thankfully, I do not live in Palm Beach, and do not have to suffer this man's antics in the streets of my hometown.

No, it is because he it so freakin' nuts. Enter Chief of Staff Joyce Kaufman.

From the Independent:

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• In August 2007, when discussing illegal immigrants, she said on her show, “If you commit a crime while you’re here, we should hang you and send your body back to where you came from, and your family should pay for it.”
• She became infuriated at illegal immigration after she called Comcast and the recording said, “Press 2 for Spanish.”
• She said at a rally, with West standing by, “Calling illegal immigrants ‘undocumented workers’ is like calling a drug dealer a pharmacist without a license.” She was furious that children of illegal immigrants were educated in public schools and received health care at emergency rooms. “There are people who want to change your way of life, and some of them may be your gardeners,” she said.

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Apparently, efforts by John Boehner to stop the nuts from bringing too many fruit loops to Washington have failed in Washington D.C.

Allen West is a torturer, a vindictive maniac and a fan of racist motorcycle gangs who wouldn't have him as a member. But he is no pushover.

Let's face it. Ron Klein, while being a very competent Congressman, was pretty boring. For the next two years, we can enjoy the madcappery that is Mr. West, then have Klein come in, promise to never rip his short off Incredible Hulk-style on the House floor, and coast back into office. But until then, let's enjoy this show.

10 Things Florida Voters Taught Me Last Night

1. Alan Grayson's antics are too outrageous for Congress. Allen West, totally acceptable.

2. It's OK to rack up historic fraud fines as long as your mother loves you enough to cut an ad.

3. The Florida Democratic Party will never get its act together.

4. While liberals argue about the proper way to elect Marco Rubio, Republicans just voted for Marco Rubio. Their way works better.

5. Lying on your financial disclosures, running a tuck of nasty mailers off the road and calling your opponent a henchman of Castro is no big deal as long as you are Republican.

6. Receiving a text message is a fireable offense as long as you are a Democrat.

7. Being a conservative Democrat in a moderate district doesn't make sense anymore. Granted, being a liberal in a moderate district didn't help much either.

8. I should have hated Allen Boyd. Then this morning would be a little easier.

9. Floridians still vote right on most amendments even when they vote wrong on most candidates.

10. This sucks.

It's Election Night in Florida

Update 2: It's a new day in Florida, and a lousy one. Yes, we lost every race I was following. Every stinkin' one. Florida elected criminals, torturers and zealots. So my predictions below seem particular naive today. On the bright side, this blog might have been really boring for the next year or so had this crazy cast of teabaggers just drooped away into the night, so stay tuned, and keep following these rantings.

Update: I forgot to put this on but the amendment fight looks to be heading in a pretty specific direction right now. Only 2 (the military tax exemption), 5 and 6 (Fair Districts) are on the road to passage. The Hometown Democracy, Public Finance repeal and Class-Size revision are all well south of 60 percent right now.

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... and everywhere else, I know. Still, I thought I would once again do some live-blogging of just the most important races in the Sunshine State. I have posted my hopes, dreams, and pragmatic predictions on the blog already, and will update with results through the evening.

My hope for months has been that the elections will become more localized than the chattering class has predicted. Polls of late have made me doubt in that hope, but I still believe the GOP wave tonight can be ebbed a little bit in Florida.

For the sake of accountability, here are my rosy predictions from a few months ago, when I suggested every incumbent Congressman in Florida would be re-elected. I no longer believe that, but it would be nice. But while most national pundits believe our three most endangered Congressmen - Grayson, Boyd and Kosmas - all go down, I believe at least one, maybe two, will live through the night. The Senate race is gone, but we should be able to take the Governor's mansion, and maybe even one of the other Cabinet posts.

Links to my race-by-race posts are below:

FL-Sen: Meek-Rubio-Crist

FL-Gov: Sink-Scott

FL-02: Boyd-Southerland

FL-08: Grayson-Webster

FL-12: Edwards-Ross

FL-10: Justice-Young

FL-22: Klein-West

FL-24: Kosmas-Adams

FL-25: Garcia-Rivera

FL-Cabinet: Gelber-Bondi, Maddox-Putnam, Atwater-Ausley

FL-22: Klein-West

Update 4: I just woke up to some bad Palm Beach numbers. I'm guessing Ron Klein is sleeping right now. I guess it's two years of zaniness. Also, I will write this again later today, but: Alan Grayson is too crazy and theatrical for Florida voters. Allen West, just right.

Update 3: West is up about 13,000 right now. But it is tough to call this because most of Palm Beach is still out. In this race, the county supervisor is reporting 120 of 277 precincts. It still is hard to say if the lead wasn't just in early voting. Anyway, this race and the governor's race really hinge on Palm Beach right now.

Update 2: Well, South Florida numbers are coming in and things are tightening up, but I am not feeling very optimistic right now. Looks like the loony is headed to Washington.

Update: Don't be alarmed. Just 67,000 votes are in. West is up, but that means he had a god early voter machine... I hope.

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If Ron Klein cannot beat the cartoon character that is Allen West, then prep yourself for a night where the Republicans take 70 seats. My hope is the racist bikers realize West is black or just get drunk lost on the way to the polls.

I suspect more attention has been paid to this race than it warrants. West is a YouTube sensation and nothing more.

But if he does win, at least I will have someone to blog about for the next few years.

They Like Me, But They're Racist

Does this seem like a crazy defense of an association with a group who call themselves "The Outlaws"? This is why I love, love, love Allen West. Despite being better at raising money than maybe any candidate in Florida, who still finds a way to lose this race without the Democrats raising a dime.

As a catch-up, Allen West caught flack from NBC for his connections to these Hell's Angels wannabes. In the past, he has praised the protection the group provides, and with all the campaign Gestapo-types, editorial boards and TARP monsters out to get him, Lord knows he needs protection. Wheels On The Road, a pro-Outlaw magazine, loudly promotes West on its internet homepage, and has carried a monthly column by West. He had been scheduled to headline a Wheels event Friday before all this blew up on national news. And regardless of any Outlaws connection, his archives at Wheels offer some tremendous, if predictable, insight into how men talk, cataloged here by the Sun-Sentinel.

But he tells Hotline that he couldn't be a member of the Outlaws. They won't have him.

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In an interview with Hotline On Call West said flatly that the issue is a nonstarter because the club does "not accept blacks, Jews or gays" in their membership.

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West, of course, if black. But I'm pretty sure he isn't Gay or Jewish. He has gone out of his way to make clear his views on those groups. So I'm not even sure why he tossed that in.

But I love that West is coming out, saying the people he has proudly ridden the highways with are a bunch of racists he wouldn't let him in their group anyway. I love that a group featured often in the same pages where is zany rants see ink are a group that wouldn't associate with him, even though they run his words, carry his banner ads, and celebrate his 19-year-old ass-slapping ways.

I hope this man runs every year. I bet Ron Klein does too.

Allen West, Banking on Crazy

One of the most entertaining races in the entire country this cycle has to be the Klein-West battle in Florida's 22nd. The fun is provided almost entirely by over-the-top Allen West, the manifestation of machismo and everything the pistol-hugging wingnut fringe wants a Congressman to be. West is one of the best fundraisers in the country, drawing money from wackos in every corner of the country.

He is a man with no mental filter. Rather, he speaks from his gut, the same gut that encouraged him to fire bullets off near an Iraqi police officer's head when he suspected collaboration with the enemy. And increasingly, he speaks only with those whose guts shout the same zany things that he does.

Read this interview with Renew America by conservative writer Joe Simpson. In it, West ups the looney-tunes quotient by tying every issue under the sun to some socialist-terrorist plot. And you thought the Reds and the Islamic extremists didn't get along. My favorite part is where he suggests Mexican immigrants are secretly Muslim terrorists. From the interview:

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The number one language being learned by terrorists right now is Spanish, and we are finding prayer rugs and translation books all along the border.

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But there are far more important parts of this interview, most notably the place in which West promises criminal investigation of the White House. What for, you may ask? But that presumes you believe it as anything less than criminal for leaders to implement policies with which you disagree. Apparently, West does not feel the same way. When asked what would warrant a criminal investigation, here is West's reply:

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There is so much. We have seen stimulus monies earmarked for blue states, TARP monies showing up in foreign bank accounts, the administration providing taxpayer dollars to support a Soros-owned oil exploration company drilling off the Brazilian coast while Obama shuts down drilling in the Gulf... it boggles the mind.

I would support investigations into the many unconstitutional Czars this administration has appointed aimed at revealing the kinds of activities they have engaged in. I would support investigations into this administration's interactions with Wall Street cronies, unions, ACORN and the SEIU.

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Of course, West wants his supporters to know he is crazy. So are they. He just doesn't want anyone else to figure it out, and thus has stopped speaking with anybody who is not Fruit Loops. When you read the full interview with Simpson, the writer makes clear he is a card-carrying member of the bonkers right. That's fine, of course. Simpson isn't running for Congress, and I appreciate what he does for everybody by putting the words of politicians in full public view for broad scrutiny.

But West now will only talk with people like Simpson, writers who believe "this administration is engaged in a war with the American people." When David Weigel at Slate sought to write up a piece on this race, he learned West has stopped returning calls. Klein would speak to him, but West was AWOL. Now, West may not like Weigel's slant on things, of course, but he is also directing sheer vitriol at the mainstream reporters covering this race.

After the Palm Beast Post endorsed his Republican primary opponent, something obviously done more to protest West's extremism than to boost David Brady's tiny standing in polls, he told writers at the Post-run Post on Politics that he had "every intention of making the Palm Beach Post pay" for the insult.

More widely known, West in late August went after a tracker for filming his speeches, something West likened to "Gestapo-type intimidation." That attack has created some consequence in a heavily-Jewish district, especially since the tracker was the grandson of Holocaust survivors. But my problem isn't with the ethnically-tinged hyperbole, which is standard West fare at this point. It is that West lives and dies by his Internet stardom.

That tracker was gonna put words from a speech on YouTube. Indeed, that is where they ended up.

Imagine, Allen West on YouTube.

But maybe that's not fair. That link is to a campaign YouTube channel. It isn't like 5,230 other YouTube clips, mostly by third-parties swiping video from speeches or Fox News appearances, aren't already online. And it isn't like the man's entire political career isn't based entirely on tea party activists sending these clips to friends around the country and encouraging them to chip money into West's coffers.

Except it is. West is a financially successful candidate because his hateful rhetoric plays well as long as fervent right-wingers are the only ones who hear it. Unfortunately, wackos in Oregon don't vote in Florida. West needs to win over old Jewish grandmas to win a seat in Congress.

That's not going to happen. Not as long as the mild-mannered voters in Ron Klein's district get to hear what Wild West has to say whenever his belly breathes fire in front of a camera, whomever might be filming.

Other Florida House Races

Update: I should have includes FL-5 before, where Sheriff Rich Nugent is winning over teabagger Jason Sager.

In FL-12, Edwards and Ross are pulling 70-percent or more in respective primaries.

It looks like Horn is the Dem in FL-16

Klein and West win primaries handily in FL-22.

Garcia and Rivera trounce primary opponents in FL-25.

No surprises tonight. I'm done with this post.

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Several other House races could be important in November and have contested races tonight, but the elections are largely formalities. I will formally update these tonight, likely early. Any other races not listed here or in their own post, I simply don't believe will be of any consequence in November. If you disagree, provide your own updates in comments below.

In District 12, expect Lori Edwards for the Democrats and Dennis Ross for the GOP. This is Adam Putnam's seat, and a likely Republican hold, but the Dems can and should make a contest out of it.

I think Republican Rep. Tom Rooney will will get a pass this year in District 16, but we may as well learn which Democrat will challenge since this seat has been so volatile. Jim Horn and Ed Tautiva vie, and quietly pray for an October scandal. Most likely though, this race won't be on our radar two months from now.

House District 22 incumbent Ron Klein will keep the party nomination. Republican Allen West will challenge. Maybe this race is cooling down, but I expect a slog, if only because the online right loves West so much.

House District 25 nominees will be Democrat Joe Garcia and Republican David Rivera. This should be one of the best battles in the country come November. Tonight, not much to see.

Florida in House Republicans' Sights

A major ad buy shows the National Republican Congressional Committee will focus heavily on dragon-slaying this year, according to Politico. The NRCC has targeted 40 incumbent Democrats, including three in Florida. The list is not especially surprising, with Allen Boyd, Alan Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas making it onto the slate. The biggest surprise to me is that Ron Klein was ignored.

Of course, this strategy offers an opportunity for Democrats seeking open seats, most notably Joe Garcia and Lori Edwards. At least for now, the NRCC seems content to let those races play out on their own. Because this proved popular last go, I will links to my race-by-race take on where things stand now in Florida's most heated house battles.

FL-02: Allen Boyd

FL-08: Alan Grayson

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas

FL-22: Ron Klein

FL-25 and FL-12: Joe Garcia and Lori Edwards

FL-22: Klein Breathing Easier?

One Democrat who had to be excited about seeing the NRCC hit list was Ron Klein. Despite just being a sophomore in the House and having an opponent who is well-liked among conservative activists, Klein isn't among the 40 targeted Democrats. That is probably a very sign that the GOP doesn't want to waste too much real money in a Southeast Florida district.

That doesn't mean Klein has nothing to worry about. Tea Party darling Allen West has been raising moula and publicity over the past few years. He is the type of black conservative that Republicans go all Alan Keyes about. He hates affirmative action and our current Commander-in-Chief, and hey, why wouldn't a minority who climbed the ranks in the military feel that way, right? An internal poll released in April showed West with a slight lead in Klein, but no independent poll has replicated those results.

But Klein is well-respected here. He just picked up the endorsement of the Palm Beach Post, and the paper sided against West in the GOP primary in favor of a less extreme candidate destined to lose. And voters here know of Klein's commitment to his constituency and his ambitious nature. He rose to leadership roles in the state Senate and has always been well-respected among party leadership. That means something in the House, and the older voters in this district have a respect for that.

Finance Shows Blue Tide

The new campaign finance figures for Florida Congressional races leave me more optimistic than ever about the prospects of Sunshine State Democrats in November. Call my glasses rose-collared, but I think it seems increasingly likely that if a Republican wave truly strikes the country, it won't have a great effect here. That obviously makes me far more upbeat about Democratic performance than most, but let me explain.

For starters, just look at the statewide summary released by the Federal Elections Commission. Now recall that Republicans already hold the majority of House seats in Florida15-10. So the fact Republican House candidates raised $20 million to Democrats $18 million isn't indicative of greater statewide support as much as it is the number of incumbents with strong support. To really figure where things stand takes a closer look at the numbers.

Now let's look at the House races in play. I am only going to opine on the seats which pundits list as toss-ups, leans and likelys. Don't try and convince me we have a really good shot at taking out Cliff Stearns this year.

Because this post took me much longer to write than I expected, I am trying something new here. I am making every race I analyze its own post, and providing here a sort of table of contents. And this is more than a shameful, shameful way of drumming up my traffic (feel free to click the ads). It also will allow any commenters to post directly to the post on the race they care most about. So disagree with me on FL-02 but agree on FL-25? Just tear me apart on one post, and then feel free to shower with praise on the other.

The short story is I think we will at worst hold our current number of Democratic seats in Florida, but see a way to pick up one seat in FL-25 while defending all other ground in the sunshine State.

FL-02: Incumbent Allen Boyd (D)

FL-08: Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)

FL-12: Open Seat (R)

FL-22: Incumbent Ron Klein (D)

FL-24: Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas (D)

FL-25: Open Seat (R)

FL-22: Incumbent Ron Klein (D)

FL-22: Incumbent Ron Klein (D)

Well, here is one that may be more excited than many expected. Republican Allen West had a phenomenal quarter, raising $1.3 million. He now has nearly $2.2 million cash on hand, challenging incumbent Ron Klein's $2.9 million. If there is any devastating surprise waiting for Democrats on election day in Florida, it will happen in Fort Lauderdale. West is trying to be the tea party's answer to Alan Grayson, a tech-savvy national figure who can bottle national conservative outrage and direct it into electoral success.

Of course, that is Grayson's strategy for re-election. The Orlando congressman got into office with a self-funded campaign against a right-wing ideologue. I don't know if it will work as well for West, who has to unseat an incumbent. It didn't go well two years ago, when Klein cleaned West's clock and beat him by more than 10 points. But what all is different this year? Klein is a fighter, and so far has never been delivered an easy campaign in the House. He unseated incumbent Rep. Clay Shaw in 2006, then fought off West in 2008 triumphantly but expensively.

Still, most pundits list this one as a Likely Dem hold, and there is good reason. The district skews D+1, and Klein is an up-and-comer in the House. Democrats see a future here. He is running in southeast Florida, where you either have to be liberal or Jewish to win, and Klein is both. If Republicans catch a major wave this Fall, Klein is out, but as the tea party brand becomes more lodestone than lucky charm, I expect Klein will fend off this challenge. If he can nail another 10-point win, maybe he can even scare off a serious challenge in 2012.