Grab The Popcorn, Mica-Adams Fight Coming

Or at least that is what both parties say right now. Via the Sentinel:

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After weeks of silence, U.S. Rep. John Mica of Winter Park said Wednesday that he plans to run for re-election in a redrawn congressional district centered on Seminole County — setting up a potentially bruising primary with fellow Republican Sandy Adams of Orlando... If neither budges, a Mica-Adams primary could be a rough-and-tumble affair. Mica chairs the House Transportation Committee and would bring to bear all the weapons of an old bull Republican – well-heeled connections groomed by two decades on Capitol Hill... Adams, though, can count on the backing of the Tea Party caucus and could cast the race as a battle for the soul of the Republican Party.
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If you want to read all of the Republican inside baseball, I encourage you to check out the article.

It seems to me, though, that this is a fight that the Tea Party will lose. Mica is all the good things about the establishment when it comes to serving the interests of his own voters. Road projects are the type of pork everybody ultimately ends up calling a good thing.

As for Adams, I like people to take a moment and realize what she and her like really want when they talk about the soul of the Republican Party by reading here and here.

But the real thing that Democrats should be looking for is a good candidate in the 6th, where creepy Ruth Chris Steakhouse ex-CEO Craig Miller poses for now the best hope for the GOP. In a year where the 99 percent are especially angry at bastards who got rich doing a bad job in the private sector, I think the Republicans are cooking us a pick-up seat.

Private Spaceflight is the Future

Even as the fight for more shuttle flights continues in genuine bipartisan fashion, something truly important for the future of exploration occurred yesterday. The SpaceX Dragon launched from Cape Canaveral and landed.

As I have noted before, many of those politicians fighting so hard for socialized space exploration are completely hypocritical as they preach about the need to cut government spending. Yes, the government should have a role in space exploration, but after losing two shuttles and dragging our feet on significant advancements for the past four decades, it is clear to me that private spaceflight is the way of the future.

The only bright side I saw to the extension of shuttle flights was that it could bolster Suzanne Kosmas' chances of re-election. That didn't pan out. But with a new Congresswoman, one who hails from a movement all about the free market, I would like to ask now that the focus of Space Coast politics shift a little bit more toward assisting companies interested in exploration.

I hope Rep.-elect Sandy Adams, who comes into office weeks after SpaceX made it in and out of orbit safely, sees this shift as a positive one. The same the death of Disney's Orlando animation offices gave birth to a thousand locally-owned animation companies, so could the loss of the shuttle program create enormous private sector opportunities in the Cap Canaveral area.

If I were a benevolent dictator, I would maintain government operation of space ports like the Kennedy Space Center but completely privatize space exploration. If the government still kept a small fleet of space-capable vessels, or if the military ever had a genuine national interest to promote separate from exploration, the facilities of course would remain available the same way Air Force One can land in any airport in America. But the bulk of space exploration in the future needs to be done by private interests, not public ones.

The only reason this approach lacks political popularity is that it is marked with fear of the unknown. Until now, there hasn't been a lot of faith that SpaceX and other companies could pull off successful missions outside of Earth's atmosphere. Perhaps that will change after today. We will see.

But there is every reason to believe that the end of the shuttle program will bring with is more job opportunities than it costs. Private launches open the possibility of space tourism, and allow for more flights and more research being done by far more companies that currently can save space in the cargo bay.

Private companies will create more vessels than the handful of shuttles launched since the 1980s. Will there be crashes and tragedies? Of course. There are airplane crashes and automobile crashes now that cost us many lives every year, far more than the 24 astronauts who died serving as part of an elite but far-too-small force. But those tragedies will be met with swift responses, not the 30-month stop after the Columbia disaster or the 32-month delay after the Challenger explosion.

My point is not that space should become to frontier of careless profiteers. This new industry must be regulated heavily from the start, the same way airlines have to abide by strict protocols and regulations. But this is a new and exciting industry, one that should bring enormous economic growth to Florida, Texas and California.

And what an exciting industry at that.

FL-24: Kosmas-Adams

Update 2: Kosmas has officially thrown in the towel. Looks like neither the Grayson or Kosmas plan worked out. Bummer.

Update: Well, Adams is up by about 20 right now. So much for my hope that one of the the three most at-risk incumbents would survive. Sorry Space Coast.

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It would be foolish to be too optimistic about Kosmas tonight. I hope she wins, and she has picked up the endorsements of every major paper in the district who is naming favorites this year. I hope her fight on behalf of NASA this year earns some loyalty from the space cadets.

Plus, Sandy Adams is kind of loony. But if this is truly a tea party year...

Anyhow, hope for the best and brace for the worst.

Are there Kosmas Polls We Don't See?

The news this week that the DCCC was pulling out of Florida's 24th was widely viewed as a sign that Suzanne Kosmas is toast. The move surprises me, because the race looks neck-and-neck from where I sit. That doesn't mean the conclusions are wrong. It just seems odd to me that the nationals would give up on Kosmas just when it felt like fighting time.

It makes me wonder if there are polls sitting in the DCCC offices to which we aren't privy. That's no surprise of course. Partisans tend to release polls with good news and sit on polls with bad news. But then, Sandy Adams hasn't exactly been issuing repeated polls showing a growing margin. Obviously, if things are tight, I'd rather save Alan Grayson myself, but then, I think we can still win both of these seats.

The last poll released by the NRCC, back on Sept. 28, put Adams 10 points ahead. But the day before,Kosmas put out a poll showing herself up by 7. Since then, its been silence from both camps. Unfortunately, House races don't get polled enough, so its hard to tell what to make of these polls. While internals are treated with skepticism because campaigns are reserved about what they release, candidates still need accurate information on where they stand.

Compare the data to a recent Sunshine State out of Florida's second which shows Steve Southerland trouncing incumbent Allen Boyd 56-30. Now even pessimists have questioned this poll, which gives a couple of also-ran candidates a combined 14 percent of the vote. But nobody in Democratic circles is yet talking about throwing in the towel in the Panhandle seat Boyd holds now.

Maybe it's because Boyd is a long-time incumbent and Kosmas is a freshmen. Maybe they figure Kosmas' seat was hand-drawn for Tom Feeney and we just got jucky two years ago when the Abramoff scandal swallowed Feeney whole. But this whole thing just seems odd.

The thing is, Sandy Adams has been the subject of much negative coverage since winning the GOP primary. Her extremist positions on the 17th amendment and a woman's right to choose make her prone to effective attack ads. When Florida Today endorsed Kosmas, they said Adams "lack of knowledge about NASA is appalling," something which matters a great deal in this space-happy district. And while we're talking endorsements, Kosmas snagged the support of the Republican-leaning Orlando Sentinel as well.

The Kosmas Plan. The Grayson Plan

Central Florida this year may offer the best example of campaign experimentation for Democrats in this entire campaign cycle as Suzanne Kosmas and Alan Grayson take starkly different approaches to re-election strategies. If one of these incumbents fall in November and the other remains standing, it will set the tone for years on how campaigns in swing districts are waged.

Kosmas is playing the ultimate moderate. She supports the Bush tax cuts, piddled around on Obamacare and has disappointed liberals with a Progressive rating which makes Allen Boyd look like a leftist. She is trying to be what many, including myself, believe is a dying out creature: the Southern conservative Democrat.

Grayson, meanwhile, is the ultimate fighting Democrat. He calls out social conservatism for being outside the mainstream, assaults right-wing health care policy, and fills his coffers with national donations as a result. This is the campaign most of us in the blogosphere have wanted from Democrats. It is what we hoped Howard Dean would do, and after that campaign imploded, what we wished so badly John Kerry had done.

But the "conventional wisdom" has always been, when the going gets tough, run to the center. Never mind that in any sport known to man, the most successful plays normally come from running up the sides.

Right now, Congress is breaking session, and infighting between the conservative Democrats like Kosmas and the liberals like Grayson has resulted in no vote being taken on the tax cuts, either those that benefit the rich, whom Kosmas is apparently quite worried about, or those that affect the rest of us.

There isn't enough polling being done on either of these seats, despite being the most watched Congressional races in the state. Kosmas and Grayson both have released internals which show themselves leading. But Sunshine State just released a poll that shows Grayson behind Dan Webster by 7 points. The NRCC says Kosmas is behind Sandy Adams by 10.

Obviously, everything is still in the air, and the next five weeks are go-time for both incumbents.

I want both freshmen to win re-election, of course. Kosmas is far from my favorite Democrat, but she's better than Rapey McNovotes. But given the choice, I would rather see Grayson re-elected and Kosmas go down than vice versa. While I was hard on the Grayson ad yesterday, I do kind of hope the name Taliban Dan sticks. More importantly, though, I want a declaration that sticking to one's principles and fighting for a liberal cause is not political foolishness, and that a progressive agenda has its place in mainstream America, not just liberal strongholds.

It's still a real possibility both of them could lose, which would suck, but at least would leave no room people to blame being liberal for Grayson's downfall. More important than any candidate is the right for a progressive agenda to be treated with equal respect in the marketplace of ideas, especially when right-wing fanaticism is so often given a pass.

Adams Would Say No For Rape Victims?

Something tucked into a HuffPost article caught my attention today. Apparently, the Republican National Coalition for Life is very excited about Sandy Adams, one of 63 House candidates they have endorsed who are "pro-life without exception."

In other words, they oppose freedom of choice even in the event the mother was raped and in cases of incest. Follow some links and you realize she even opposes in cases where the mother's life is in danger.

The article as a whole focuses primarily on Senate candidates, which makes sense. Senators, after all, are the ones who vote for Supreme Court justices, likely the only people with the power to impose these kinds of archaic restrictions.

But RNC for Life spokesperson Dianne Edmondson make special note of four House candidates who were especially exciting candidates to watch, and Adams was among them. I've written before about Adams' extreme views on other constitutional issues. I'm sure more will come up, but here is a list so far.

- Adams opposes direct election of U.S. Senators, preferring the Legislature take the reins there.

- Adams wants to repeal the amendment which created the federal income tax.

- Adams opposes a woman's right to choose, even in cases of rape, incest, or threat to the mother's health.

And you though the Tea Party was all about upholding the constitution. Turns out that includes one particular reading of it, and not a complete one at that.

Now, it's no secret Democrat Suzanne Kosmas is among the most endangered incumbents in the U.S. House. An NRCC-funded internal poll released last week shows Adams beating Kosmas 49-37. But can a candidate this extreme really be considered as a reasonable alternative?

Like Voting for Senators? Not Sandy Adams

One of the best things going for Republican Sandy Adams in the race for Florida's 24th is that people don't know much about her. In this sort of anti-incumbent, and in some places anti-Democrat, climate, being an unknown quantity can be good. But as we learn a little more about the state House member, voters may suddenly realize it isn't a great idea to jump on the Adams-wagon.

Right now, incumbent Suzanne Kosmas is pushing audio of Adams supporting repeal of the 17th Amendment and going back to letting statehouses choose U.S. Senators. I am curious what Marco Rubio thinks of that idea.

So do you enjoy voting in Senate elections? Since we have arguably the hottest such race in the country, I would think voters right now would be especially suspicious of this sort of constitutional repeal.

And once again, I'd like to note that Republicans, supposed defenders of the Constitution, seem to have a lot of things they want repealed. Birthright citizenship. Federal Income Tax. The list goes on and on.

I wrote yesterday that this race may be slipping away from us. If Kosmas can fight back, though, and paint her opponent as an extremist, then we can defend the 24th from attack. Adams was part of a crowded primary field, and emerged victorious when many early on were predicting rich steakhouse man Craig Miller would be the nominee. But outside of the few thousand (OK, almost 20,000) who voted for her on Aug. 24, she is largely an unknown quantity.

Let's hope Kosmas writes Adams' story before Adams does.

Bad News for Kosmas

If anyone is going to mess up my sunny disposition about Democrats' chances in Florida's House races, it will be Suzanne Kosmas. I am starting to fear the freshman has worked so hard to moderate herself in the eyes of voters she has been left with no strong base on which to win re-election.

A poll provided to The Buzz shows Kosmas as a 12-point underdog to state Rep. Sandy Adams. At this stage of the election that is bad news. Of course, this is a partisan poll from Public Opinion Strategies, and so far is just one poll. It could be an outlier. It could be one that is weighted heavily to favor Republicans. Are 63 percent of Space Coast voters really opposed to Obamacare? I have trouble believing that.

But there is no question this is troublesome ground. This seat was created in the 2002 Legislative session, when Speaker of the House Tom Feeney wanted a custom district to carry him to Washington. It worked until the Jack Abramoff scandal and a Democratic wave brought him down. But the district still leans to the right.

That is why Kosmas was wishy-washy on health care. She voted against original versions, pissing off the left, the voted for the final, pissing off the right. Not that I expect Democrats to learn lessons, but this should teach one to those politicians who believe blatant pandering gets anywhere with modern voters. But nothing to do about it now.

Obama has low approval ratings in the district, around 38 in this poll. With his shuttle-hating ways, that doesn't surprise me so much. But again, Kosmas has responded by coming out fighting against the president. Since she already has a shaky relationship with the left, I don't think this is so wise a strategy.

My advice, shore up support on the left. Compare Kosmas' support in FL-24 to Alan Grayson's in FL-08 and you see how well triangulation fares to authentic liberalism in the year 2010. But it may be too late. There are no big fights left in Congress before Election Day, and no way for Kosmas to still prove herself to voters. Her record stands for what it is. Only her rhetoric can turn this race around.

To write off a race in early September, as some party leaders already seem intent to do, would be ridiculous. A few presidential visits and a solid televised debate could still shift things the other way. But more pundits are moving this from Toss-Up to Leans R. I don't like it, but I can't argue. I want to say this is Kosmas' race to lose. I fear that she will do just that.

Primary Day - FL-24

Update: OK, this is close, but I'm calling it a night. It still looks like Adams leads by about 500 votes. That's good enough for me. Here is my logic. Miller lost everywhere but Volusia County, where he won by about 1,000 votes. Volusia is reporting all their normal ballots, and just has touchscreen ballots outstanding in about 6 precincts. Those ballots at this point are used by very few people, and there is no way for Miller to turn his deficit around. It's back to the steakhouse, Craig.

Update: The Sentinel says Adams still won't claim victory until more votes come in from Orange and Volusia. It seems from here that Orange has been very slow tonight. But she is probably right to keep mum. Less than one percent of the vote separates her from Diebel.

Update: While Kosmas has the nod, the Republican side is crazy tight. Adams at 31, Diebel at 29, Miller at 27.

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On the Republican side, a number of people slug it our for their shot at incumbent Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in November. Candidates are Craig Miller, Karen Diebel, Sandy Adams, Deon Long and Tom Garcia. My money is Miller, but we'll see how this plays out.

Kosmas hasn't exactly become a liberal superstar, and has drawn a challenge from Winter Springs Mayor Paul Partyka.

FL-24: Kosmas In Trouble?

Freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas is probably the most tense about the news of the NRCC buy. Republicans are starting to thirst for her blood, perhaps because of anger she beat rising star Tom Feeney two years ago in a district hand-drawn for the former state Speaker. A new poll by the American Action Forum shows her trailing Craig Miller 44-41. And unlike Grayson, she has never developed any special affection with the left.

Of course, we don't even know if Miller will be the nominee. He is in a GOP primary against ex-Winter Park Commissioner Karen Diebel and state Rep. Sandy Adams, two candidates with more electoral experience than the Ruth's Chris flunky. But if they can beat the well-monied Miller that probably means they can go into the general election strong. With news of the NRCC incumbent-killing program targeting her but ignoring Ron Klein, I suspect this makes Kosmas the most vulnerable incumbent in Florida this year. And since Obama lost this district two years ago, many people such as Southern Political Report are already moving this into the leans Republican column.

But then, Kosmas is still winning in money, and will build up some good name recognition and voter support in a minor primary with former Winter Springs mayor Paul Partyka. This is a big media market, so money could make a huge difference. Kosmas can definitely stick this out, and from there develop a long-term career in Congress. But it won't be easy.

FL-24: Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas (D)

FL-24: Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas (D)

Infighting may save the day for freshman Suzanne Kosmas, as a five way primary divides the right in this R+6 district. The link is to a Florida Today story on an internal poll touted by Ruth Chris Steakhouse flunkie Craig Miller to show he had a plurality lead among Republicans, but that 65 percent remain undecided. FEC reports don't show any more certainty, with Miller again leading with $326,000 cash on hand but Karen Diebel creeping up with about $255,000 and Sandy Adams close behind with just under $182,000.

Every one of those guys has enough money to win this if more than half of Republicans are truly uncommitted. That shows either hubris or anxiety on behalf of the GOP going into this race. Kosmas beat out incumbent Tom Feeney in this district in 2008, but had the perfect opponent. Despite the fact Feeney hand-drew this district for himself in 2002, he was plagued by Abramoff scandals and marred by all sorts of e-voting contract issues. The man was a poster child for what is wrong with career politicians.

But is Miller any better? He is wealthy, but his resume is ripe for attack. He is the classic failed business leader, just the sort of corporate villain the Democrats would like to see this year. And without Miller? While the other two major candidates could secure a spot on the November ballot, they have big strides to make in name recognition in order to beat Kosmas. The incumbent has more than $1.2 million cash on hand herself, and has nothing to spend it on but boosting her own positives until after the August primary.

While this race is one of only two marked toss-up by Cook Political Report, I don't believe it will stay that way forever. With no organized opposition, Kosmas may get an easier re-election bid than anyone could or should expect. This feels like a seat we will successfully defend.