New Map An Interesting Start

So the first draft of the Congressional map for Florida is out and there is some significant chit-chat out there. It has been a while since I blogged, and I guess since I have bloviated myself about redistricting, this is a good time to chime in. My take, for what it is worth, is that is is actually a pretty good sign for Democrats next year in Florida.

Some are suggesting this ignores the Fair Districts amendment. I say, Duh!

No, that's not true. I do think this acknowledges the amendment, but only in a political sense and not by the letter of the law. It seems lawmakers are answering the amendment by making a district which doesn't benefit the GOP's ambitions. Given that the Republicans have a stranglehold on the Legislature here, that is a pretty good after-effect of passing the amendment. Does that make me a cynical partisan? I don't think so. Considering Florida is a state with a U.S. senator from each major party and which has been a swing state in the past FIVE presidential elections, it is just crazy how badly the GOP dominates the Congressional delegation from this state. Ultimately, the partisan make-up of our delegation is the greatest way to measure how fair the district lines are created, and this gives us a chance to balance the scales. Just a chance.

Before we start, here is a link to the map that is used today:

The Panhandle is almost unchanged, and I am not sure how much any tweaks would do. When we lost Boyd last year, we probably lost FL-02 for a good while. Boyd was a conservative Democrat, and the voters eventually decided it was time to switch him with a conservative Republican. I am not sure it will be so easy to get them to switch back, and I am not sure how much the modern Democratic Party wants a new Blue Dog. But things start to get interesting in Northeast Florida.

Right now, FL-04 is held by Republican Ander Crenshaw. But the district now has more Duvall County in it than has before. I don't think that means much this cycle, but if Jacksonville trends more Democratic, it could mean this seat comes into play when Crenshaw retires. An Hispanic seat in Central Florida (FL-27) almost surely will be Democratic, and Corrine Brown's seat, while an embarrassment to Fair Districts advocate, seems unlikely ever to switch red. Does Alan Grayson have a shot with this map? I think so, but he will have to convince Democrats of that. In the big picture, that is a good thing for liberals.

In South Florida, David Rivera's district is moving away from him, showing the Legislature may take my advice and hang the fucker out to dry. This is good news for any and everybody, as this freshman who has spent more time avoiding investigation than filing legislation, is a black eye on the state transcending party lines. It looks to me like Allen West is also in for a fight, convincing me more than ever that he is a one-term Congressman and the right's 2010 version of Grayson 2008.

So there is a lot in my opinion to like in this map. The most important thing to remember, in my opinion, is that it is a starting point. Considering the fear in many, many states with GOP legislatures, it is important to note this is a map that does not make anything worse for Democrats next year. Since our current map is so screwed up, that is hardly a consolation, I know, but this map, as it looks today, gives Democrats the chance to pick up seats next year, and the opportunity to get our House delegation in balance over the next decade. And this is only map one, so things are likely to get better. I view this all as good news.

Grayson's Re-Entry

A Daily Kos diary by Alan Grayson shows most of all that he is doing his homework on what it will take for Democrats to win in Florida in 2012. Without an actual Congressional district to run in as of yet, that's the most we can expect.

Here is the line most people are latching onto:
---
In 2010, my district and everywhere else in Florida, Republican turnout was in the sixties. Democratic turnout was in the forties. Republican turnout was close to what it was in 2008; Democratic turnout was barely half of what it had been. In 2010, I could have won every Democratic vote (and almost did), plus every Independent vote, and I still would have lost. When I saw those numbers, I said on MSNBC, “when Democrats don’t vote, Democrats don’t win.”
---

A good lesson.

What is the biggest takeaway to me? He doesn't ever say the word Webster.

I have noted before, the Florida Legislature is going to be good to Rep. Webster. As much of a radical right-winger as the man seems to the progressive blogosphere, Webster has extraordinary constituent relationships and a legendary ability to make friends with people on both sides of the aisle, no matter how far apart they may sit philosophically. If his adoration as the Grayson slayer isn't enough to win him friends in the GOP-filled state capitol, just his reputation as a fair state House speaker and state senator will lead to a GOP-leaning district which includes Webster's strongholds.

I don't care if Grayson ends up still living in Webster's district when the lines are drawn. There is going to be a left-leaning new district in Central Florida. That is where Grayson should run. The man will serve us well when he returns to Congress. Although most of us always liked that Grayson seemed unfettered by political consequence, we can likely trust to see an even more confident progressive head to Washington if he is representing a safe Democratic seat.

I very badly want to see Grayson return to Congress. He needs to run next year in an open seat if that goal is to be accomplished.

What Happens With Two New Seats?

Since I have harped non-stop on how important redistricting is going to be this year, I can't ignore the revelation Florida will pick up two new Congressional seats based on the census numbers.

The big focus has been on how this affects the Presidential election, but as far as Florida is concerned, we were the biggest swing state before and we're the biggest swing state now. The big change is we are now effectively the same size as New York in the electoral college with 29 votes.

I actually think the impact on our Congressional delegation has gotten short shrift. The fact that Florida will have as many House members as New York is hugely important. And when the Legislature convenes to debate redistricting, it will be the all-consuming news story.

What to watch for? Who wants to go to Congress. In 2002, then state Sen. Pro Tempore Ginny Brown-Waite wanted to go to Congress, so the Legislature redrew Karen Thurman's district to force a turnover. Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris also wanted a trip to D.C., so an open seat was redrawn around her home base so that she was guaranteed a ticket.

Perhaps most germaine to this conversation, though, is that state House Speaker Tom Feeney and state Sen. Mario Diaz-Balart had two brand new seats drawn for them in districts where no Democrat could beat them.

A decade later, I suppose it is quite ironic none of these lawmakers still hold those seats. But only Feeney lost re-election, and that only lasted one cycle. When the new Congress convenes and Sandy Adams gets sworn in, each of these tinkered seats will have a Republican representative.

Now Fair Districts or not, I do not personally think there is any way to stop the two new seats being drawn by the Legislature from becoming Republican seats. But I do hope the new amendment prevents tinkering with any of our seats. We have so few seats at this point, the GOP may really have to go out of its way to find a pickup. But our Democratic lawmakers do need to be vigilant on this.

I think the think to watch in the next year is who expresses interest in Washington. I have mentioned before that while state Senate President Mike Haridopolos wants to run for Senate, he may decide it is easier to create a custom seat. Lots of term-limited lawmakers are likely dreaming of Washington at this point in their careers.

The other thing to watch, of course, is the half dozen freshman GOP lawmakers who will have to run for re-election. How important will it be to lawmakers to keep these seats? I suspect in a less Republican-friendly environment that several, notably Dan Webster, Dennis Ross and David Rivera, would not have been elected.

How badly does the Legislature want to protect these new lawmakers? I suspect with Webster, quite a bit. They don't want this seat slipping from their hands again, and it is a seat that Obama won as it drawn right now. I don't know where Ross and Rivera fall on their priority list, but I believe Rivera has the potential to be the biggest embarrassment for the Republican caucus in Washington because his financial disclosure issues.

Anyhow, I believe we need to write the two new seats off, but it will be vitally important we make sure no shenanigans go on beyond that.

A Backup Plan for Haridopolos and Others

Speculation is already running rampant about who will be challenging Bill Nelson, with early focus on Senate president Mike Haridopolos. But I would like to note the biggest challenges we will face in federal elections will come from the redistricting of Florida House seats. Until we know what the map looks like, and how many ambitious pols will end up with Congressional seats drawn for them, the speculation is a bit premature (but certainly still fun, so don't stop.)

I wrote about redistricting before, stressing why it was so critical Democrats get the governor's mansion before this legislative session. But that didn't happen, so we have to deal with the cold reality that little oversight exists for a Legislature with historic GOP majorities and a Senate president promising the most right-wing agenda ever.

Early estimates show Florida most likely will get two extra House seats once the census numbers are fully tallied this year. That is the same amount we picked up in 2000. Of course, we could pick up less, or more. In 1990, we snagged four seats.

Make no mistake, those will be Republican seats. Even if Fair Districts has a positive effect on the system, something which I sadly doubt, the new seats will be drawn in a way to help the GOP. The map will be challenged, I am sure. It always is. But while new laws may govern how Republicans rig the system, I assure you it will be rigged.

The one good thing we can count on is that with so few Democratic incumbents in the House next cycle, virtually every one will have it easy in 2012. Most have solid blue districts today, and if anything, the lawmakers will try to pack more Democratic strongholds into those districts just to sort them out of red zones.

The real question is, who wants the seats, and what will they do to get them.

Florida Progressives Coalition, linked above, is following Haridopolos' Senate ambitions right now, which I am sure are genuine. But ex-Speaker Johnnie Byrd and former Senate president Dan Webster once had Senate ambitions that got squished by then-HUD Secretary Mel Martinez in 2004. Back then, Byrd fled into obscurity and Webster ran back to the state Senate until a decent House opportunity presented itself this year.

Now, any legislator who is considering a trip to Washington by defeating Bill Nelson knows it could be a tough row. Even if it turns out to be a very bad Democratic cycle (though I sincerely doubt it will be like the one just closed), Florida hasn't booted a sitting Senator since 1986, and it took popular Gov. Bob Graham and out-of-step Senator Paula Hawkins to make it happen then.

If I was living around Merritt Island, I would start wondering what House district I might be living in next year. As crazy as it sounds, it would be much easy for a sitting Senate President to draw himself a House seat, as then-state Speaker Tom Feeney did in 2000, than it would be to wage a winning statewide campaign against a fleet of ambitious GOP contenders and Nelson.

For those curious, Haridopolos' district Senate office lies within Republican Bill Posey's Congressional district. The Legislature won't endanger Posey's seat, of course, but they could screw with it. Recall that in 2000, when reshaping the 5th so that Ginny Brown-Waite would take Karen Thurman's seat, a lot of Republican voters were sucked out of Cliff Stearns' district because they knew Stearns could survive.

I would also watch Speaker Dean Cannon, who has every motive to pull a Feeney this year. Beyond that, we should see who chairs the redistricting committees next year in the House and Senate, as those people virtually always end up running for Congress in custom districts. Past committee chairs include Brown-Waite, Mario Diaz-Balart, Thurman and Peter Deutsch.

Only when we know the map will we know who is still betting the farm to be part of the 100 Kings, and who will settle for rigged House seat.

Fair Districts a Good Idea. Hope It Works

There is no process I have ever witnessed in a decade of covering government which better demonstrates the old sausage-making metaphor that the outwardly corrupt reapportionment process. This is one of those exercises so painfully bureaucratic that few voters even realize it is going on, and then one day show up at a poll and say "but I thought I was in so-and-so's district."

That is why I support Amendments 5 and 6. Not because I think they will work. I fear they will do very little. But something needs to be done, and it needs to happen before the redistricting process begins in 2012.

The amendments basically say that when the state Legislature convenes to redraw district lines for themselves and for Florida's Congressional delegation, the lines cannot be drawn to favor an incumbent political party. Amendment 5 affects state House and Senate lines. Amendment 6 covers the Congress.

Now, I have my questions about the effectiveness of this. The full text of the amendments do not detail any enforcement of the law. Basically, that is up to the courts. Of course, judges already can, and have, called for district lines to be redrawn. The snake-like district which Corrine Brown holds was drawn one way by the Legislature in 1992 and then tossed by a judge later. It still is one of the most clearly racially-gerrymandered districts in the country, but at least you can drive from end to end.

That district and others were the product of an unholy alliance back then between state Republicans and the NAACP which helped create districts where black Congressman could reliably get elected and portion many Democratic voters out of districts which Republicans wanted to win. But the NAACP supports 5 and 6 now, probably because of some language intended to make sure minority voters are not disenfranchised.

At least the ends of racial gerrymandering in the past were noble, even if the means were unsettling. When I watched the 2002 redistricting process play out, it was amazing to me just how brazenly political the entire affair became. Tom Feeney, then the state Speaker of the House, had his members draw him a bizarre-shaped district which had an odd satellite poking out to the west in order to include his Oviedo power base. State Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who headed up the redistricting committee in the House, created a Cuban-heavy district in South Florida that allowed him to move to Washington and hang out with his brother Lincoln. Katherine Harris, who was Secretary of State during a somewhat controversial vote recount, had a district hand-drawn for her as well.

The most atrocious example to me, though, was when state Sen. Ginny Brown-Waite, Diaz-Balart's counter-part in the Senate, redrew the seat of a sitting Congresswoman so that it leaned Republican. Rep. Karen Thurman ended up losing the election is hard-fought contest which I covered. Now, both Brown-Waite and Thurman are legislators for whom I hold respect, but that race came down to the lines being rigged against the incumbent. That isn't democracy at work. It is politicking at its worst. Brown-Waite's big defense was that the district had just been hand-drawn for Thurman was Thurman was in the state Senate 10 years prior. The only reason that defense isn't deplorable is that it is 100-percent true.

But then, that is just more evidence the process is riddled with problems. Historically, the legislators who chair the committees on reapportionment have ended up with hand-drawn seats in Congress. That is true whether Republicans are running Tallahassee or if the Democrats are in power.

So can these amendments make the reapportionment process apolitical? I doubt it, but it offers one more check against corruption, and that can't be a bad thing.

Stop the King-Making

The invulnerability of incumbents in Florida was explored and verified by Politifact today, a day after a judge tossed a proposal by the Legislature intended to protect lawmakers' ability to craft an even stronger suit of armor. For those who witnessed the reapportionment process in 2002, all of this confirms just what a mess was made of the last redistricting process. Unfortunately, I remain unconvinced that a better system will exist in two years, but forces of good are at work on the issue, and I wish them the best.

As I have written before, the over-exertion of political desires has always hurt reapportionment. Historically, those lawmakers who chair the committees in the Legislature tasked with reapportionment have ended up with Congressional seats of their own. Karen Thurman. Mario Diaz-Balart. Ginny Brown-Waite. Peter Deutsch. What do all of these current and former U.S. Representatives have in common? If you said they all ran away from their own voters to run in their brother's district, well, you only got one out of four.

But more than likely, you correctly guessed that each one as redistricting chair made sure districts were drawn which made their own promotion to the U.S. House much easier. This isn't about party. This is all about power, and very personal power at that.

Of course, there was something particularly disturbing about the way the process went down in 2002. It reached beyond a few specific districts, and was more important than the GOP's determination to get two to four more seats in Congress. While we in the press were focused on the upcoming Thurman v. Brown-Waite contest that would inevitably come, most of the lawmakers in Tallahassee were doing something more selfish. The GOP at the time had three-to-one control of the state House and near that in the state Senate. But the partisan domination was not the biggest thing that really happened that year.

The first wind I got of it came when all the state Senate districts got renumbered. Why would that happen, I asked? Soon it was pointed out to me that in most cases, even-numbered districts became odd-numbered. The reason was a complicated loophole in Florida's term limit rules, limits which had just gone into effect shortly before the redistricting process. Florida voters had decided "Eight is Enough" when it came to years of service for lawmakers. For those in the House, "Eight" meant eight. State representatives run every two years, and there was no way around that. But the state Senators found a fix. Because the even-numbered districts run staggered from the odd-numbered, changing the numerology offered the chance for incumbents to cheat an extra two years, presuming they had not already served their eight years and were not already planning to retire.

Too much techno-babble? Let me use this Central Florida example. I lived in District 11, and my state Senator had been elected to a four-year term in 1996, then re-elected in 2000. Every seat had to go up for re-election after redistricting, but theoretically,my Senator in 2002 should only have run for a two-year term, then been forced to retire. Instead, I suddenly found myself in District 20. That meant my Senator, after serving a four-year term and a two-year term, was running for another four-year term. If she had served out her term, she would have gotten 10 years before being term-limited. The same situation benefited nearly every Senator, regardless of party.

Incidentally, I was told then that state Sen. Dan Webster engineered this trick. He is now challenging Alan Grayson for a seat in the House.

But that was only the beginning. Even more discreet things were being done by the lackies drawing the lines. Computer technology offered lawmakers tools and skills unheard of in the prior 1992 redistricting process. Racial gerrymandering? Kid stuff. With new demographic software and precision election records, lawmakers could cut neighborhoods where they had performed poorly clear out of their districts. Democrats and Republicans could literally swap constituent strongholds. Sure, Democrats made a fuss about the GOP protecting its majority, but somehow lawmakers in hotly contested districts in 2000 suddenly had districts so one-sided challengers could not be found for them by November 2002.

Indeed, lawmakers suddenly found themselves better protected than ever before, enough so that the Legislature in 2004, which polls showed as the most unpopular in the nation, had every single member seeking re-election emerge victorious. This doesn't even discuss the number of districts where no re-election battle need be waged at all. As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, more than half the state House districts in the state this year only have one of the two major parties competing for the seat, and many of those saw lawmakers elected with no opposition.

Fair Districts Florida wants the next process to go better. I have my doubts over how effective their ballot language will be. Promises to eliminate any "intent" not to favor a political party seem to me rather hard to enforce. But it's a start. Should they end up on the ballot, I will vote for Amendments 5 and 6. The intent is good, even if the proposals lack sharp enough teeth.

Of course, the amendments are being challenged in court as well, and by none other than Reps. Diaz-Balart, R-Miami, and Corrine Brown, D-Jacksonville. At least the two can each offer some humor to this saga. After getting elected in a new, custom-fit district in 2002, Diaz-Balart is running for his life away from his own voters and running for his retiring brother Lincoln's seat instead. (Get the joke now?) Brown represents one of the worst gerrymandered districts in Florida, one that actually had to be redrawn by a judge more than a decade ago but still looks crooked. These two are bipartisan poster children what is wrong with redistricting the way it works in Florida today.

With any luck, things will be better in the near future, but in the meantime I would rather not trust my political opponents with the redistricting process come 2012. If one party has 3-to-one margin control of either Chamber at that point, we are in for another decade of very ugly politics in the Sunshine State.

The Absence of Democracy

Qualification deadlines in Florida tend to incite in me a temporary depression. Potential and hope for a resurgence is often dashed that day. Particularly upsetting to me this year was the failure of Bud Chiles to do the right thing and run as a Democrat. But the biggest problem for me each year is the scant number of Democrats willing to run at all. Nowhere is that more apparent each cycle than in the races for state House seats each year.

Check out the slate. When you look closely, you realize that in 35 of the 120 state House seats, there is no Democrat in the race. Of those, eight are for open seats.

In the arena of personal disgust, I must note the district where I live, District 74, Republican Rep. Gary Aubuchon is running unopposed in a district where he has never had to stand up for election one time. Aubuchon was selected by Republican Party officials in 2006 to take this seat after Charlie Crist chose former Rep. Jeff Kottkamp as his running mate in the governor's race. Since then, Aubuchon has skated through unopposed, without ever having to print a single campaign sign.

We will never take control of the House is we refuse to even compete in nearly a third of the races for state House seats, but there is more at stake than that. By not fielding candidates to run for office, the Democratic Party of Florida is not only denying progressives in Florida the opportunity to govern, but every voter the chance to even make a choice regarding who should manage the Sunshine State.

Thanks to a write-in candidate loophole, discussed with precision by Norwood last week, many voters are also being disenfranchised. In 10 races, a state Representative will effectively be selected in the Republican or Democratic primary, and anyone registered as an independent or with another party will be denied the right to vote. This is a loophole just as abused by Democrats as Republicans, and half of these write-in candidates are closing primaries in seats the Democrats will hold.

But at least voters within the majority party get a vote in those races. In 31 different races, a candidate is either running unopposed or only has write-in opposition. In many more, only one major-party candidate is running, and facing a third-party or nonpartisan opponent in November. I suppose a case can be made the Republican Party of Florida is also failing its members. There are 26 House seats where no Republican is running. But I am sure they care less because they have controlled the House by overwhelming numbers for more than a decade.

All of this is especially important for Democrats because the next House will handle the once-a-decade redistricting process. By not fielding a solid slate of House candidates, the party has doomed itself to another decade in the minority. Of course, the rigged map approved in 2002 is part of why so few districts in Florida are battlegrounds. Democrats and Republicans alike have been drawn into isolated boxes.

I am especially angry as a progressive, but voters of all political persuasions are being cheated of the Democratic process. Consider this. If we assume every independent, third-party and write-in candidate loses, which history shows is a safe bet, then more than half of the state House races have already been won by one party or the other. Only 59 races have both a Democrat and a Republican in the race.

We are a closed primary state, and that assumes legislatively that a two-party system offers the best choice for voters. Too bad neither members of the Legislature nor leaders of the two parties feel the same way.

The Power of the Map

Florida seems the perennial swing state in every presidential election. Yet the Legislature is dominated by GOP lawmakers, and Republicans far outnumber Democrats within the Congressional delegation. The reason? The GOP drew the map for all state House and Senate districts, as well as every Congressional seat in the Sunshine state. How did that happen? And why is it important this year? Because the once-a-decade reapportionment season is upon us, and whoever wins the gubernatorial race will likely determine whether there are 10 more years of GOP domination in Florida or if the Democrats have a fighting chance at fair representation.

While most people are aware of the Census conducted by the federal government at the beginning of each decade, few realize the political ramifications once people get counted. Among other things, the legislatures of every state get to work drawing districts of roughly the same population for whatever offices for which that in necessary. In Florida, that means redrawing 120 state House districts, 40 state Senate districts and however many Congressional districts the Feds say are appropriate. After the 1990 and 2000 censuses (censi?), Florida picked up a total of six Congressional seats, substantially raising both Florida's electoral influence and the political stakes of redistricting.

In 1990, the Democrats controlled the Legislature under Gov. Lawton Chiles, and of course drew a map that was favorable to the left. But before the decade was out, Republicans joined forces with the NAACP and filed a lawsuit demanding the courts gerrymander districts and increase minority representation.

I'm sorry, I don't know if that sunk in with everybody out there. Let me say it again. Republicans joined forces with the NAACP and filed a lawsuit demanding the courts gerrymander districts to increase minority representation.

That makes no sense, you say? But it does. Blacks were historically under-represented in Florida, so the NAACP saw an opportunity challenging the maps in Florida to get seats drawn with majority-minority constituencies. The result of such gerrymandering, though, is that reliable Democratic voters get siphoned into specific districts. This gave us Congressmen like Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, and it cost us dearly in terms of Congressional possibilities. Here is an NYT article on the subject from 1990 as suits in a number of states were being prepared, in case you don't believe me.

Over the course of the decade in Florida, Republicans gradually took a majority of seats in the state House and Senate. In 1998, they finally won majorities of both chambers. Then in 2000, just as term limits were for the first time forcing many entrenched incumbents into retirement, the margins for the GOP rose to astonishing levels. Jeb Bush also happened to have taken the Governor's Mansion, so the GOP was free for the first time in decades to draw a legislative map to their liking with no fear of a veto. Seats previously drawn for Democratic lawmakers, such as the one held by now-Florida Democratic Party chairwoman Karen Thurman, were redrawn so Republicans could win them. Other seats were custom fit for lawmakers, such as a Central Florida seat which happened to be stretched in a way to contain then-House Speaker Tom Feeney's home.

Technology also allowed micro-reapportionment like never before seen. Senators offered amendments presented on floppy disk, and electioneers got into chambers to engineer nearly perfect districts for all lawmakers. Sometimes the Democrats who were in the Legislature seemed complicit in deals, going along with redistricting so long as their own seats were mapped in ways that favored the incumbents. Did the effort go perfectly for the GOP? Of course not. In the Democratic wave two years ago, Rep. Feeney was ousted from his hand-drawn seat by Democrat Suzanne Kosmas. Rep. Ric Keller, a Republican who barely won election into the House in 2000, had a safer seat drawn to protect him, but lost it two years ago to super-liberal Alan Grayson. But it should be noted those two Congressional seats are the only ones Cook Political Report lists as toss-ups in Florida right now, so victory may be fletting.

And for the most part, the map has done good by the GOP, better than they likely deserve. Consider Barack Obama won this state in 2008, and George W. Bush skated by infamously close races in 2000 and 2004 (and yes, that is a very generous assessment of the 2000 election for Dubya). Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson coasted to statewide victory four years ago. Republicans win most statewide offices here, but it is hardly a Republican-only electorate.

And because of this, it is extremely important Alex Sink win the governor's race if Florida Democrats want hope in a plethora of other contests. We can't win the state House or Senate this year, for precisely the map-rigging detailed in this post. Think the Congressional map is skewed? Check out the state House map. The best option we have for oversight on the process is having a Democrat in the Governor's Mansion. It would be the first time in decades that different parties controlled the veto pen and the mapper's quill. The threat of veto hopefully would lead to fair districts, and if not, Sink could override a crooked map as the governor and force lawmakers to give a second go in a special session. If necessary, courts could step in.

Bill McCollum or Rick Scott would let the lawmakers draw out their own fantasy maps, as Jeb Bush did in 2000 and, frankly, as Lawton Chiles did in 1990. If a GOP governor is elected, get used to another decade of minority rule.