FL-08: Grayson, Ultimate Fighting Dem

Those of us who long ago tired of milquetoast Democrats constantly reasoning their way through public debate have fallen in love with Alan Grayson. Having grown up in Lake County, I have been particularly fascinated. I grew up sitting at the smallest table during mock debates in school. The very notion a liberal Democrat is representing Eustis right now is something I find confusing and exhilarating. But this Fall, it will truly put to test whether being a fighting lefty is a wise move even in swing districts.

Let me cite an odd source, this Errol Louis column in the New York Daily News where Grayson lays out the higher stakes for his re-election fight:

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"I am the first Democrat to represent Orlando in 34 years," he told me. "If I do win reelection, and 25 Democrats go down because they were too weak, too indecisive and pretended to be Republicans, then that will be a learning moment for all the Democrats."

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So far, the strategy has worked splendidly. Grayson is doing what some Republicans mastered years ago and turning his House perch into a national podium. By offering a strident voice to progressives, he has won a national reputation, and reaped huge rewards for his campaign warchest. He has obviously won the scorn of the right as well, and I am sure many people in McCollum country feel this usurper must be turned back.

But riled conservatives and the presumption Grayson would be vulnerable has actually hurt the GOP in a couple ways. Most notably, the primary field is mega-crowded. Former Senate candidate Dan Webster might have been an establishment favorite if he entered the race sooner, but now businessman Bruce O'Donoghue has built up significant name recognition, attorney and talk radio guy Todd Long has commissioned polls that show him leading. Official TEA Party candidate Peg Dunmire has also severely muddied the waters, and is strengthening cred with the far right despite people trying to tie her to Grayson.

It may not be as hard as people think for Republicans to pull constituencies back together after a tough August primary. But it will be hard for an individual candidate to bring together financing. That is probably why the NRCC decision to target this district means so much right now. But I expect the Democrats will toss a good deal of dough into this on Grayson's behalf. Money should still favor the incumbent, and I think this is a very winnable race.

FL-08: Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)

FL-08: Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)

Growing up in this area of Florida, I never expected to see a Democrat represent the 8th, so it isn't surprising to me that the Republicans, upset at Ric Keller's defeat in '08, would want this seat back. They seem to have a good line-up of candidates vying for the race, but Grayson in two short years has set himself up as the newest star of the liberal movement. He has embarked on massive promotional and fund-raising efforts which have turned him into a national figure, and as such, he will be difficult to beat.

Bottom line? Grayson is sitting on $1.4 million in cash on hand. That could fund a Senate race. Of course, the right would love to pick him off too, and plenty of dough has been split among the Republican challengers. But a late primary benefits Grayson tremendously. It remains unclear who the GOP challenger will be in this race, and whether the party will be able to coalesce around that candidate in two short months.

The best choice is probably retired state Sen. Dan Webster, a former state Speaker and an historically-celebrated leader among Florida conservatives. But thanks to a late entry and divided loyalties, Webster has only about $165,000 in the bank. Businessman Bruce O'Donoghue, in contrast, has almost $300,000. Two other Republicans - Kurt Kelly and William Todd Long - have more than $100,000 cash on hand, which likely won't make them top-tier but will be enough to muddle the race more.

In short, Grayson should be a favorite for re-election as things stand today. The ultimate GOP nominee will have a lot of work in front of them to make this competitive, but that is far from impossible.