It's Election Night in Florida

Update 2: It's a new day in Florida, and a lousy one. Yes, we lost every race I was following. Every stinkin' one. Florida elected criminals, torturers and zealots. So my predictions below seem particular naive today. On the bright side, this blog might have been really boring for the next year or so had this crazy cast of teabaggers just drooped away into the night, so stay tuned, and keep following these rantings.

Update: I forgot to put this on but the amendment fight looks to be heading in a pretty specific direction right now. Only 2 (the military tax exemption), 5 and 6 (Fair Districts) are on the road to passage. The Hometown Democracy, Public Finance repeal and Class-Size revision are all well south of 60 percent right now.

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... and everywhere else, I know. Still, I thought I would once again do some live-blogging of just the most important races in the Sunshine State. I have posted my hopes, dreams, and pragmatic predictions on the blog already, and will update with results through the evening.

My hope for months has been that the elections will become more localized than the chattering class has predicted. Polls of late have made me doubt in that hope, but I still believe the GOP wave tonight can be ebbed a little bit in Florida.

For the sake of accountability, here are my rosy predictions from a few months ago, when I suggested every incumbent Congressman in Florida would be re-elected. I no longer believe that, but it would be nice. But while most national pundits believe our three most endangered Congressmen - Grayson, Boyd and Kosmas - all go down, I believe at least one, maybe two, will live through the night. The Senate race is gone, but we should be able to take the Governor's mansion, and maybe even one of the other Cabinet posts.

Links to my race-by-race posts are below:

FL-Sen: Meek-Rubio-Crist

FL-Gov: Sink-Scott

FL-02: Boyd-Southerland

FL-08: Grayson-Webster

FL-12: Edwards-Ross

FL-10: Justice-Young

FL-22: Klein-West

FL-24: Kosmas-Adams

FL-25: Garcia-Rivera

FL-Cabinet: Gelber-Bondi, Maddox-Putnam, Atwater-Ausley

FL-12: Edwards-Ross

Update 3: Well, looks like it's over. Another one for the GOP, but it looks like Ross will be held under 50 percent. Not that there is any prize for holding him below 50, but still.

Update 2: So here is the interesting thing. Hillsborough is where I think Edwards best shot at winning this race lays, and that county isn't reporting numbers to the Division yet. Regardless how this turns out, Edwards was obviously doing better than Grayson or Kosmas because the race is still within 5 points right now.

Update: Edwards is down by 5, and nobody has hit that 50-percent mark. Maybe the tea party candidate is going to keep this close tonight. We'll see.

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This is the one House race in Florida where I am more optimistic now than I was a few months ago. Elections Supervisor Lori Edwards has quietly run a strong campaign, and running in an area where a lot of Alex Sink support is likely to turn out could give Edwards some coattails.

The pundits still suspect Dennis Ross to coast into office, but I think the shadow enthusiasm of the left regarding this race may bring good news. Plus a Tea Party candidate complicates things here, though maybe less then the Dems would hope.

I am not saying we should build ourselves up for victory. A win here would still be a surprise. But boy, would a surprise like this be nice tonight. I'll be watching to see what happens.

Can Edwards Win It? Maybe

I sure hope Steve Singiser at Daily Kos is right about the 12th, but I have seen no signs. Right now, I feel like Lori Edwards is a decent candidate who hasn't made much of a splash and isn't raising the type of money to beat Dennis Ross for this seat. This is not a great environment for an under-funded Democrat to hold a seat held by the GOP for years.

But for the sake of hope, I will entertain. Here is Steve's argument:

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Florida's 12th district, on paper, should be a hold for the GOP. Their candidate, former state legislator Dennis Ross, has outraised Democratic challenger Lori Edwards by a two-to-one margin in this R+6 district. But two things make this one interesting. For one thing, the district might be shifting noticeably. Florida moved a total of eight points in the Democratic direction between 2004 and 2008. But the 12th district's shift was even sharper, from a 16-point GOP margin in 2004 to just a single point in 2008. Furthermore, there is a wild card in the race: Polk County Commissioner and Tea Party candidate Randy Wilkinson. A poll taken over the summer by Dem pollsters Greenberg Quinlan Rosner gave Edwards a shocking three-point edge, elevated by Wilkinson's ability to notch 20% of the vote. Given his lack of funds, that might be a bit optimistic, but if not...watch out for this one.

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My biggest problem with that poll, and why I ignored it at the time, is that I don't really think teabaggers as a whole are interested in a third-party. They are really just Republican partisans with a new label.

But there could be a few other things working in Edwards' favor. Most notably, tight races for U.S. Senator and Governor will bolster Democratic turnout all through the I-4 corridor. While Polk County is relatively conservative, it sits in two big TV markets considered for eons to be the swing district where state elections are decided. Alex Sink, the Democrat running for governor, hails from Thonotosassa, a Hillsborough County community just over the Polk County line, and will do whatever she can to drive up turnout in the greater Tampa Bay area. Kendrick Meek's landmark candidacy, whether successful or not, should help boost black turnout statewide.

As Supervisor of Elections in Polk, she has name recognition with a big chunk of voters. And I have yet to here any real negatives cast at her, if only because the GOP isn't taking her as a serious threat right now. So good luck, Lori. I'd sure enjoy an upset this November, and do believe that if she can win this seat, she can hold it two years from now and for many cycles to come.

Other Florida House Races

Update: I should have includes FL-5 before, where Sheriff Rich Nugent is winning over teabagger Jason Sager.

In FL-12, Edwards and Ross are pulling 70-percent or more in respective primaries.

It looks like Horn is the Dem in FL-16

Klein and West win primaries handily in FL-22.

Garcia and Rivera trounce primary opponents in FL-25.

No surprises tonight. I'm done with this post.

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Several other House races could be important in November and have contested races tonight, but the elections are largely formalities. I will formally update these tonight, likely early. Any other races not listed here or in their own post, I simply don't believe will be of any consequence in November. If you disagree, provide your own updates in comments below.

In District 12, expect Lori Edwards for the Democrats and Dennis Ross for the GOP. This is Adam Putnam's seat, and a likely Republican hold, but the Dems can and should make a contest out of it.

I think Republican Rep. Tom Rooney will will get a pass this year in District 16, but we may as well learn which Democrat will challenge since this seat has been so volatile. Jim Horn and Ed Tautiva vie, and quietly pray for an October scandal. Most likely though, this race won't be on our radar two months from now.

House District 22 incumbent Ron Klein will keep the party nomination. Republican Allen West will challenge. Maybe this race is cooling down, but I expect a slog, if only because the online right loves West so much.

House District 25 nominees will be Democrat Joe Garcia and Republican David Rivera. This should be one of the best battles in the country come November. Tonight, not much to see.

Florida in House Republicans' Sights

A major ad buy shows the National Republican Congressional Committee will focus heavily on dragon-slaying this year, according to Politico. The NRCC has targeted 40 incumbent Democrats, including three in Florida. The list is not especially surprising, with Allen Boyd, Alan Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas making it onto the slate. The biggest surprise to me is that Ron Klein was ignored.

Of course, this strategy offers an opportunity for Democrats seeking open seats, most notably Joe Garcia and Lori Edwards. At least for now, the NRCC seems content to let those races play out on their own. Because this proved popular last go, I will links to my race-by-race take on where things stand now in Florida's most heated house battles.

FL-02: Allen Boyd

FL-08: Alan Grayson

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas

FL-22: Ron Klein

FL-25 and FL-12: Joe Garcia and Lori Edwards

FL-12 and FL-25: Huge Opportunity

The NRCC target list provides bad news for a lot of incumbents, even ones who are prepared to take the extra licks, but it also reveals something about the NRCC's strategy this year which provides great news to Democrats seeking open seats. Florida has two real chances at pickups this year: the 12th and the 25th.

I have been saying good things about our odds in the 25th for months. Joe Garcia is an outstanding candidate who already sent Mario Diaz-Balart fleeing from his own hand-drawn district, and he has been raising a solid amount of cash. Additionally, Republican David Rivera has not been a very good candidate thus far. Yes, Rivera has raised more than a million, but shaky positions on oil and immigration have hurt him, as has a high-profile foreclosure scandal involving Senate hopeful Marco Rubio.

As for the 12th, I was ready to write off this race a month ago but news the NRCC is focusing on incumbents could help Democrat Lori Edwards out a great deal. Southern Political Report was also more impressed than I was with Edwards' fundraising, tough they still peg this as a Republican-leaning district. Adam Putnam's pursuit of higher office does create an opportunity here in a district that John McCain carried by a point. It still may take a slip-up by Republican Dennis Ross, a former state representative, to make this winnable, but things look better today than they did a week ago.

Is the NRCC over-confident in thinking these seats won't be competitive? It may be they have polling we don't, but then the strategy to leave every open seat in the nation alone hints at a confidence in the GOP that the bulk on incumbent-free races will go their way. That could be true, but such confidence would make it all the more fun to surprise them in November.

Finance Shows Blue Tide

The new campaign finance figures for Florida Congressional races leave me more optimistic than ever about the prospects of Sunshine State Democrats in November. Call my glasses rose-collared, but I think it seems increasingly likely that if a Republican wave truly strikes the country, it won't have a great effect here. That obviously makes me far more upbeat about Democratic performance than most, but let me explain.

For starters, just look at the statewide summary released by the Federal Elections Commission. Now recall that Republicans already hold the majority of House seats in Florida15-10. So the fact Republican House candidates raised $20 million to Democrats $18 million isn't indicative of greater statewide support as much as it is the number of incumbents with strong support. To really figure where things stand takes a closer look at the numbers.

Now let's look at the House races in play. I am only going to opine on the seats which pundits list as toss-ups, leans and likelys. Don't try and convince me we have a really good shot at taking out Cliff Stearns this year.

Because this post took me much longer to write than I expected, I am trying something new here. I am making every race I analyze its own post, and providing here a sort of table of contents. And this is more than a shameful, shameful way of drumming up my traffic (feel free to click the ads). It also will allow any commenters to post directly to the post on the race they care most about. So disagree with me on FL-02 but agree on FL-25? Just tear me apart on one post, and then feel free to shower with praise on the other.

The short story is I think we will at worst hold our current number of Democratic seats in Florida, but see a way to pick up one seat in FL-25 while defending all other ground in the sunshine State.

FL-02: Incumbent Allen Boyd (D)

FL-08: Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)

FL-12: Open Seat (R)

FL-22: Incumbent Ron Klein (D)

FL-24: Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas (D)

FL-25: Open Seat (R)

FL-12: Open Seat (R)

FL-12: Open Seat (R)

Update: The original version of this post said Dennis Ross was a sitting state representative. He left office in 2008.

Hunger for some old-fashioned Democratic missed opportunities? Look to the 12th, where retiring Congressman Adam Putnam offered the left a chance for a pickup but where things just don't seem to be going right unless you are on the right. Polk County elections supervisor Lori Edwards, the likely Democratic nominee, has just over $103,000 cash on hand in a district that crosses multiple television markets. Former State Rep. Dennis Ross, now the most likely Republican candidate, has $440,000.

Meet Dennis Ross, future distinguished gentleman from Florida.

It looked at one point like he might have a tea party challenge by John Lindsay, but Lindsay's money has dried up, and he barely has $1,200 in the bank now. Meanwhile, Edwards must deal with a challenge by Douglas David Tutor, who has more than $25,000 to blow. Will that help upset Edwards? Of course not, but he could damage her a bit leading into the general. Normally, I don't mind the publicity generated by a primary, but Ross has enjoyed years of free media as a lawmaker and can now build up his positives through largely biographical marketing. Expect him to run away with this and keep the seat in Republican hands.