But for the sake of hope, I will entertain. Here is Steve's argument:
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Florida's 12th district, on paper, should be a hold for the GOP. Their candidate, former state legislator Dennis Ross, has outraised Democratic challenger Lori Edwards by a two-to-one margin in this R+6 district. But two things make this one interesting. For one thing, the district might be shifting noticeably. Florida moved a total of eight points in the Democratic direction between 2004 and 2008. But the 12th district's shift was even sharper, from a 16-point GOP margin in 2004 to just a single point in 2008. Furthermore, there is a wild card in the race: Polk County Commissioner and Tea Party candidate Randy Wilkinson. A poll taken over the summer by Dem pollsters Greenberg Quinlan Rosner gave Edwards a shocking three-point edge, elevated by Wilkinson's ability to notch 20% of the vote. Given his lack of funds, that might be a bit optimistic, but if not...watch out for this one.
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My biggest problem with that poll, and why I ignored it at the time, is that I don't really think teabaggers as a whole are interested in a third-party. They are really just Republican partisans with a new label.
But there could be a few other things working in Edwards' favor. Most notably, tight races for U.S. Senator and Governor will bolster Democratic turnout all through the I-4 corridor. While Polk County is relatively conservative, it sits in two big TV markets considered for eons to be the swing district where state elections are decided. Alex Sink, the Democrat running for governor, hails from Thonotosassa, a Hillsborough County community just over the Polk County line, and will do whatever she can to drive up turnout in the greater Tampa Bay area. Kendrick Meek's landmark candidacy, whether successful or not, should help boost black turnout statewide.
As Supervisor of Elections in Polk, she has name recognition with a big chunk of voters. And I have yet to here any real negatives cast at her, if only because the GOP isn't taking her as a serious threat right now. So good luck, Lori. I'd sure enjoy an upset this November, and do believe that if she can win this seat, she can hold it two years from now and for many cycles to come.
I think you're on to something here, Jake. Lori is a conservative Democrat who has broad appeal. She has ran county-wide three times, while Ross has never done so. Additionally, Randy has ran county-wide numerous times and has a reliable block of religious voters who will stick with him. I think the wildcard is Hillsborough County, which is over a third of the electorate. None of the three are truly reaching out to this block of voters.
ReplyDeleteI hope so. When I did my predictions earlier this year, I didn't really think like we could take this one, but now it seems like a real possibility.
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