I have been saying good things about our odds in the 25th for months. Joe Garcia is an outstanding candidate who already sent Mario Diaz-Balart fleeing from his own hand-drawn district, and he has been raising a solid amount of cash. Additionally, Republican David Rivera has not been a very good candidate thus far. Yes, Rivera has raised more than a million, but shaky positions on oil and immigration have hurt him, as has a high-profile foreclosure scandal involving Senate hopeful Marco Rubio.
As for the 12th, I was ready to write off this race a month ago but news the NRCC is focusing on incumbents could help Democrat Lori Edwards out a great deal. Southern Political Report was also more impressed than I was with Edwards' fundraising, tough they still peg this as a Republican-leaning district. Adam Putnam's pursuit of higher office does create an opportunity here in a district that John McCain carried by a point. It still may take a slip-up by Republican Dennis Ross, a former state representative, to make this winnable, but things look better today than they did a week ago.
Is the NRCC over-confident in thinking these seats won't be competitive? It may be they have polling we don't, but then the strategy to leave every open seat in the nation alone hints at a confidence in the GOP that the bulk on incumbent-free races will go their way. That could be true, but such confidence would make it all the more fun to surprise them in November.
No comments:
Post a Comment