Prospects of Jeb! 2012

The splash on Huffington Post's homepage at lunchtime teases a prospect that frightens Florida progressives and tantalizes conservatives. That is, of course, the possibility of a Jeb Bush candidacy for president in 2012. Sam Stein writes a thorough exploration of the rising prominence of the younger Bush bro, and I must concede it is frightening for anyone who wants Florida to be a blue state two years from now. Of course, any speculation about when Jeb Bush runs for the White House is worthless until the conclusion of this election cycle, but it does now appear to be a question of when.

I won't pretend to know Jeb Bush is any deep way. Through a decade covering the Sunshine State, I interviewed him at least a dozen times, but my guess is if he saw me today, he would wonder from where he knew me, and after three seconds move on to another thought. But the casual familiarity is enough that family and friends often asked through the years what Jeb's ambitions might be in terms of higher office.

There was major speculation a year ago that the ex-governor would run for the Senate, but I knew then he had no interest in such an opportunity. Would he win? Sure. His presence would be enough to scare Rubio, Crist, and maybe even Meek off the ballot. Not only would he have been a favorite, he might have been the only credible candidate in the race. But a legislative body is no dream job to a retired executive. In Florida circles, it was well-known Bob Graham was never as happy in the Senate as he had been in the Governor's Mansion. For Jeb, the Senate would likely be even more frustrating. In Tallahassee he was boss, and during Bush's tenure, he ran the town when the Republicans held greater majorities in both houses of the Legislature than had been seen generations. Bush enjoyed that he could call a press conference and it would prompt immediate action from government officials around the state. While Jeb Bush is certainly charismatic in his own ways, he has never been collegial, and he had little patience for deliberating details of policy with peers.

A run for President, though, is another story. The White House would provide Jeb a greater bully pulpit than the governor's mansion, not a lesser one. He could once again call for legislation and know a Republican lawmaker would have something drafted by week's end. And he would have more minions answering to his whims. The Pentagon. The Treasury. Even international leaders. Every politician dreams of what it would be like to run the White House. As the son and brother of two presidents, Bush knows exactly what it would be like.

That said, I was present once when then-Gov. Bush was asked directly if he would ever run for President. Sitting officials are always guarded when asked about higher office, lest they suggest discontent with the job to which they have already been elected. But Bush seemed then to be genuinely grateful to have his job and let big brother handle the antics of D.C. There was more contention in Washington, he said. It has harder to make things happen, even things he felt should be easy to accomplish. It wasn't especially alluring, he said then. But like any seasoned politician, Jeb Bush would never say never.

Now the man is out of office, and has been playing a greater role in electing Republicans around the country than any expected him to play. While nobody was surprised to see Florida's most popular conservative backing Bill McCollum and Marco Rubio, he has been willing to share his influence outside the Sunshine State. He tossed an endorsement to Bradley Byrne, a Republican hopeful for governor of Alabama, and even tossed backing to David Casas in a state House race in Georgia. Part of his reason for supporting candidates in other states is to further his reputation as a voice in education reform, where brings certain financial benefits. But these endorsements make him friends in other states, something which could be important whenever he does run for president.

That said, I don't know that 2012 is the time to do it. Jeb Bush won't run unless he can win. He knows that, unlike governor, there are no second chances at the White House. He also understands the risks he takes through endorsements that will either help or hurt him in the near-term. Need a clear example? Both Rubio and McCollum as of today are losing their respective races for Senate and Governor. If that doesn't change, Bush's odds in 2012 are greatly diminished from the go. One of the best things Jeb has going for him in a presidential race is a perceived lock on the Florida vote, but if his support isn't enough to get prodigies elected in his home state, with a political landscape so favorable to Republicans, then he will have to sit 2012 out.

And of course, there is W. Even ignoring the monumental unpopularity which the last President Bush enjoys today, America likely suffers a good bit of Bush fatigue anyhow. I always felt the biggest liability facing Hillary Clinton in '08 was the sad prospect of the White House being occupied by only two families for 24 to 28 years. After one Obama term, would America be anymore willing to bring in another Bush? Won't national Republicans want to find someone outside the Bush dynasty who can win a presidential election?

Let me share a story from 2000 about when Dick Cheney came to Central Florida to campaign. I found myself on a local press bus that traveled 100 miles that day, and at the end I needed a ride from the campaign to get me back to my car, and on the way we talked about the governor. Jeb had traveled with Cheney all day, sharing his personal popularity in Florida at every stop. The adoration for the governor at rallies impressed the Cheney people, who by that point were already wondering what the younger Bush's future might be. They knew the governor at that point could win any office in Florida, even though his older brother was in a tight race there.

One wondered out loud if the younger Bush would run in 2004 should W. fail to win election. He wouldn't discuss that much further, though, as a lengthy hypothesis like that would be sacrilege during the late stage of the campaign. So I asked instead if Jeb seemed a good choice once his brother hypothetically finished his White House term. That elicited a laugh. "For Jeb, the best thing to happen would be for his brother to lose," the campaign aide said. "Otherwise, I think America is going to get sick of the Bushes."

Surely he never imagined then how unpopular Bush 43 would be, but his words are important today. If people in 2012 are genuinely seeking change and want an alternative to Obama, that doesn't mean they will be pining for another Bush.

Now if Jeb does run, Florida Democrats are in trouble. The national party may even decide early to kiss our electoral votes goodbye. Moreover, the coattails of a Bush candidacy would be incredible. Republicans statewide would be so energized in a very partisan way, and would come out in droved to vote a straight ticket. No Democratic Congressman in a tight re-election would want to run in that environment.

But it Democrats want that star power diminished at any point in history, they better find ways to beat Jeb Bush's slate of candidates today. If the Jeb! roster wins today, you better believe the man's reach will be longer tomorrow.