PPP Tests My Faith in Humanity

Kendrick Meek is winning the Democratic primary, according to a new poll from Public Policy Polling, but just barely. And without the support of African-American voters, it appears he wouldn't be winning at all. The poll also concludes: "Democratic voters seem uninterested in this election. Most Democrats have rallied behind Charlie Crist." The poll release, if you follow the link, leads with news of gubernatorial hopeful Rick Scott leading Bill McCollum handily in the GOP primary, but I want to dissect the latter half of the release, which to me carries far more important information for Florida progressives. Democrats in Florida need to get behind Meek now, or they may regret a lack of choices later.

After delivering some very good news about the governor's race yesterday, PPP breaks my heart today. But I also think some facts need to be taken into account before people write off this race, and I hope the conclusion quoted above proves to be incorrect. Frankly, I think if PPP wants to throw that type of strong statement out, it needs to be backed up with numbers. At least in the statistics publicly released today, there is no available information about Crist support among Democrats. Maybe PPP is about to release a general election poll that offers more data, but it isn't here now.

This race pegs Meek with a 28-25 lead over billionaire Jeff Greene, with 37 percent undecided. Also-rans Glenn Burkett and Maurice Ferre pull in the remaining 10 percent of voters.

Blacks, who make up about 19 percent of the voting sample, support Meek over Green 44-19, with 22 percent undecided. That provides Meek a good enough base to hold a lead in this poll, and also brings more promising news as a significant number of undecided voters in this demographic will likely back a candidate with the promise of being Florida's first African-American U.S. Senator. In contrast, white voters, who make up 66 percent of the sample, break almost evenly with 28 percent backing Meek and 27 percent supporting Greene.

Interestingly, Hispanic voters are as likely to support one of the minor candidates as they are to back Meek. Greene wins 25 percent of the Hispanic vote, compared to 15 percent for Ferre and 10 percent for Burkett or Meek. Ferre's South Florida presence in the Cuban community likely accounts for his strong support here, but I don't know why Greene is polling so well with the group. Hispanics make up 13 percent of the sample.

I certainly hope, though, that bigger principles than racial identity determine this race. Unless a voter happens to be a real estate tycoon who got rich enough on default swaps to fund a vanity campaign, then they have little in common with Jeff Greene even if their skin tone is relatively close. I am white, but that doesn't make me relate well to this cream-skinned weasel. Granted, Meek comes from his own station of privilege being the son of a Congresswoman, but the former Florida Highway Patrolman has a lot more in common with the middle-class voter than a mega-millionaire mogul who build his fortune on the backs of people too poor to make house payments.

Another conclusion reached by this poll is that both the Democratic primary in the Senate and the Republican primary for Governor are hurting the candidates in general election match-ups. This is an indisputable truth today, but I have always firmly believed tough primaries produce better candidates in the end. Yesterday I noted that Alex Sink shouldn't take things easy now that she is outpolling Scott. Between the primary and general election, the full force of the Republican Party will be focused behind their nominee and everything possible will be done to erode the Democrat's lead, and Scott will benefit from high recognition created today.

The same goes in the Senate race. While most polls have shown Meek polling in the teens come the general election, Meek isn't truly fighting Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio just yet. He is engaged in a bruising primary, and most people who are just learning of him today and hearing the Jeff Greene version. But should he win the nomination, the Democratic party will work overtime to get things going for their candidate. He is bound to go up in the polls. Mailers will go out which trump up the entire Democratic slate, and Crist will not be part of that slate.

The Buzz made the slight today that "you wonder if it even matters who the nominee is." It does. Whoever bears the stamp of the party automatically takes in a certain number of votes by virtue of winning the Democratic nomination. Crist is the rare independent candidate with even a hope of overcoming that partisan strength. But if we put up a compelling candidate who offers voters the choice of a genuine progressive, it should not be different to pull in the 35-40 percent of the vote required to move this Senate seat back into Democratic hands.