Primary Day - FL-24

Update: OK, this is close, but I'm calling it a night. It still looks like Adams leads by about 500 votes. That's good enough for me. Here is my logic. Miller lost everywhere but Volusia County, where he won by about 1,000 votes. Volusia is reporting all their normal ballots, and just has touchscreen ballots outstanding in about 6 precincts. Those ballots at this point are used by very few people, and there is no way for Miller to turn his deficit around. It's back to the steakhouse, Craig.

Update: The Sentinel says Adams still won't claim victory until more votes come in from Orange and Volusia. It seems from here that Orange has been very slow tonight. But she is probably right to keep mum. Less than one percent of the vote separates her from Diebel.

Update: While Kosmas has the nod, the Republican side is crazy tight. Adams at 31, Diebel at 29, Miller at 27.

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On the Republican side, a number of people slug it our for their shot at incumbent Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in November. Candidates are Craig Miller, Karen Diebel, Sandy Adams, Deon Long and Tom Garcia. My money is Miller, but we'll see how this plays out.

Kosmas hasn't exactly become a liberal superstar, and has drawn a challenge from Winter Springs Mayor Paul Partyka.

FL-24: Kosmas In Trouble?

Freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas is probably the most tense about the news of the NRCC buy. Republicans are starting to thirst for her blood, perhaps because of anger she beat rising star Tom Feeney two years ago in a district hand-drawn for the former state Speaker. A new poll by the American Action Forum shows her trailing Craig Miller 44-41. And unlike Grayson, she has never developed any special affection with the left.

Of course, we don't even know if Miller will be the nominee. He is in a GOP primary against ex-Winter Park Commissioner Karen Diebel and state Rep. Sandy Adams, two candidates with more electoral experience than the Ruth's Chris flunky. But if they can beat the well-monied Miller that probably means they can go into the general election strong. With news of the NRCC incumbent-killing program targeting her but ignoring Ron Klein, I suspect this makes Kosmas the most vulnerable incumbent in Florida this year. And since Obama lost this district two years ago, many people such as Southern Political Report are already moving this into the leans Republican column.

But then, Kosmas is still winning in money, and will build up some good name recognition and voter support in a minor primary with former Winter Springs mayor Paul Partyka. This is a big media market, so money could make a huge difference. Kosmas can definitely stick this out, and from there develop a long-term career in Congress. But it won't be easy.

FL-24: Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas (D)

FL-24: Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas (D)

Infighting may save the day for freshman Suzanne Kosmas, as a five way primary divides the right in this R+6 district. The link is to a Florida Today story on an internal poll touted by Ruth Chris Steakhouse flunkie Craig Miller to show he had a plurality lead among Republicans, but that 65 percent remain undecided. FEC reports don't show any more certainty, with Miller again leading with $326,000 cash on hand but Karen Diebel creeping up with about $255,000 and Sandy Adams close behind with just under $182,000.

Every one of those guys has enough money to win this if more than half of Republicans are truly uncommitted. That shows either hubris or anxiety on behalf of the GOP going into this race. Kosmas beat out incumbent Tom Feeney in this district in 2008, but had the perfect opponent. Despite the fact Feeney hand-drew this district for himself in 2002, he was plagued by Abramoff scandals and marred by all sorts of e-voting contract issues. The man was a poster child for what is wrong with career politicians.

But is Miller any better? He is wealthy, but his resume is ripe for attack. He is the classic failed business leader, just the sort of corporate villain the Democrats would like to see this year. And without Miller? While the other two major candidates could secure a spot on the November ballot, they have big strides to make in name recognition in order to beat Kosmas. The incumbent has more than $1.2 million cash on hand herself, and has nothing to spend it on but boosting her own positives until after the August primary.

While this race is one of only two marked toss-up by Cook Political Report, I don't believe it will stay that way forever. With no organized opposition, Kosmas may get an easier re-election bid than anyone could or should expect. This feels like a seat we will successfully defend.