First Black, Female Governor

So a silver lining in the governor's race occurred to me today. Sure, we now have a thief moving into the governor's mansion, but pretty soon, we will see the first female, African-American governor in Florida. That's two milestones in one!

How, you ask? Well, while running mates are pretty much a secret in Florida, Rick Scott chose Jennifer Carroll as his, and she will now be one indictment away from the top office in state politics. Sooner or later, Scott will inevitable be indicted for something, and voila, Gov. Carroll.

I spoke to Carroll a couple times when she was running against Corrine Brown for Congress. Never much because that race was never and will never be winnable for a Republican. She seemed harmless enough. So I won't mind her keeping the seat warm until we can run in a special election in 2012 and show her the door Gerald Ford-style.

Why 2012? Well, a special election will have to happen if Scott leaves before he is midway through his term, and do you really think the indictment will wait that long?

So congratulations, future Gov. Carroll. You laid the groundwork for history yesterday.

10 Things Florida Voters Taught Me Last Night

1. Alan Grayson's antics are too outrageous for Congress. Allen West, totally acceptable.

2. It's OK to rack up historic fraud fines as long as your mother loves you enough to cut an ad.

3. The Florida Democratic Party will never get its act together.

4. While liberals argue about the proper way to elect Marco Rubio, Republicans just voted for Marco Rubio. Their way works better.

5. Lying on your financial disclosures, running a tuck of nasty mailers off the road and calling your opponent a henchman of Castro is no big deal as long as you are Republican.

6. Receiving a text message is a fireable offense as long as you are a Democrat.

7. Being a conservative Democrat in a moderate district doesn't make sense anymore. Granted, being a liberal in a moderate district didn't help much either.

8. I should have hated Allen Boyd. Then this morning would be a little easier.

9. Floridians still vote right on most amendments even when they vote wrong on most candidates.

10. This sucks.

It's Election Night in Florida

Update 2: It's a new day in Florida, and a lousy one. Yes, we lost every race I was following. Every stinkin' one. Florida elected criminals, torturers and zealots. So my predictions below seem particular naive today. On the bright side, this blog might have been really boring for the next year or so had this crazy cast of teabaggers just drooped away into the night, so stay tuned, and keep following these rantings.

Update: I forgot to put this on but the amendment fight looks to be heading in a pretty specific direction right now. Only 2 (the military tax exemption), 5 and 6 (Fair Districts) are on the road to passage. The Hometown Democracy, Public Finance repeal and Class-Size revision are all well south of 60 percent right now.

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... and everywhere else, I know. Still, I thought I would once again do some live-blogging of just the most important races in the Sunshine State. I have posted my hopes, dreams, and pragmatic predictions on the blog already, and will update with results through the evening.

My hope for months has been that the elections will become more localized than the chattering class has predicted. Polls of late have made me doubt in that hope, but I still believe the GOP wave tonight can be ebbed a little bit in Florida.

For the sake of accountability, here are my rosy predictions from a few months ago, when I suggested every incumbent Congressman in Florida would be re-elected. I no longer believe that, but it would be nice. But while most national pundits believe our three most endangered Congressmen - Grayson, Boyd and Kosmas - all go down, I believe at least one, maybe two, will live through the night. The Senate race is gone, but we should be able to take the Governor's mansion, and maybe even one of the other Cabinet posts.

Links to my race-by-race posts are below:

FL-Sen: Meek-Rubio-Crist

FL-Gov: Sink-Scott

FL-02: Boyd-Southerland

FL-08: Grayson-Webster

FL-12: Edwards-Ross

FL-10: Justice-Young

FL-22: Klein-West

FL-24: Kosmas-Adams

FL-25: Garcia-Rivera

FL-Cabinet: Gelber-Bondi, Maddox-Putnam, Atwater-Ausley

FL-Sen: Meek-Rubio-Crist

Update 2: Rubio is on TV now claiming victory. I'm curious to know if he broke 50 or not, but that's about all left to learn about this disaster.

Update: Right now it seems like Marco Rubio is going to win with more than 50 percent of the vote. If that sticks, I guess the great Crist or Meek debate is moot.

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If you trust the polls, this is all but over. Rubio will win in a blowout, with Crist in second and Meek in third.

I have made my feelings abundantly known. There will be no deathbed conversion for me. I vote proudly for Meek.

And while it gives me no pleasure to see Marco Rubio prep for the Senate, I revel in watching Crist's poor strategizing and constant double-crossing of values blow up in his face.

Sorry, Charlie.

FL-Gov: Sink-Scott

Update 5: There is no joy is RFF-ville. Mighty Alex has struck out.

Update 4: With 99 percent in this morning, it's still too close to call, but we are down about 50,000 votes. That sounds a little outside the mandatory recount box. But we will probably have to wait 10 days for all provisional and overseas votes. The provisionals typically trend D, the military R. I wouldn't get out hopes up too high.

Update 3: We really need to see some good figures from Palm Beach. That is Democratic territory, so there is hope. But other than that, this race is done. Guard the tax coffers. Rick Scott is packing for the governor's mansion.

Update 2: Well, this appears now to be our only hope. Most of the vote is in statewide, and with the arrival of votes from Hillsborough and Miami-Dade, the election is now within 4 points. That said, Scott has led the entire night. If he wins, I will have a lot to blog about tomorrow, if I have the heart. But right now, neither candidate is above 50.

Update: Right now, Rick Scott is ahead by about 100,000 votes. About 29 percent of the vote is in.

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This one is keeping me up at night. The polls show this one is neck and neck, making me question my faith in the voters of Florida. Alex Sink is a good candidate, probably the best we've put up for governor in 16 years. She won't say that because her husband ran eight years ago, but she is a much better candidate than he was.

Rick Scott, meanwhile, is about the worst candidate I have seen in a major race ever during all my years watching Florida politics. The only thing he has in his favor is money, and he got so much of that through ill-gotten means that I can't imagine any halfway-educated voter wanting to give this guy the keys to the governor's mansion.

I hope Sink breaks away today and wins this by a significant margin. But we will see.

FL-02: Boyd-Southerland

Update 3: Southerland has claimed victory. This is done.

Update 2: Boyd is under 40 right now, but still talking up supporters. This will run the night before he offers a concession, but I am pretty sure that is how it will end.

Update: Well, Boyd is down, but still above 40 percent. It looks bad, but maybe it's not over. I wish Division of Elections was posting precinct returns by district.

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This is the race I am most pessimistic about this cycle. It is not a good year to be a Blue Dog, and I suspect Allen Boyd will be Florida's Lincoln Chafee '06, an incumbent viewed as a moderate but punished anyway for caucusing with the party in power.

Boyd has the endorsement of the NRA and support from Chamber leaders, but he voted for ObamaCare, and that's enough for Panhandle voters to hand him a pink slip. Who is Steve Southerland? Who cares? He's a Republican.

I'd love to be surprised. Personally, I feel a Blue Dog is better than no Democrat at all. But Boyd performed much worse in the primary than I expected, and he has never been able to pull the party back together.

FL-08: Grayson-Webster

Update 2: Grayson has officially conceded. It appears he was beaten very badly too. Again, very sad.

Update: Forget it. Grayson is done. And I am very, very sad.

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Probably the race being watched by more progressive bloggers around the country. Alan Grayson is exactly what liberals want from a Congressman, and he has the financial success to prove that. Still, most pundits have moved this race into the Lean Republican column.

I think a lot of that has to do with backlash against the Taliban Dan ad. I criticized that ad too, but it wasn't so much because of its content. I just think it was a bad move to go so negative. It earned Dan Webster a lot of national donations, and it made Grayson look weak and desperate.

Nevertheless, I believe Grayson will pull this out. The district leans blue these days, and he has organized his army for a tough fight before. As I said in my main post, I believe we will not lose all three of our most endangered incumbents tonight, and I think Grayson has the best chance to pull this one out.