Coddling Evil

Much is rightfully being made of Gov. Voldemort's robocalling madness. But I wanted to note a little-discussed element about it - the demonstration of a gross double standard for Rick Scott and for Charlie Crist by the Republican Party of Florida.

Make no mistake, I am no Crist sympathizer, as long-time readers will know. But I can't imagine the Republican Party spending money on an effort to raise positives for a politician not up for re-election for another three-and-a-half years. Indeed, this is the party that ultimately went all in against a popular governor to boost a right-wing crazy to the post of U.S. Senator.

So let's consider this. Rick Scott is recording robo-calls on an almost weekly basis and poisoning the voice mail of independent voters on an almost weekly basis. Considering these calls carry such lies as the suggestion he delivered a record veto on spending in order to pay for education (he actually budgeted less for education that the Legislature did, and regardless that money can't be easily redirected), I am glad the calls come from a political body instead of being official expenditures of the state.

But unlike his vanity letters to the editor, these calls are not being funded by his own campaign, but by the party. These calls come at the expense of state lawmakers and Congressmen in swing districts this year who could really use the help, thanks mostly the the deatheater taint the governor has put on the 'R' marking by their names.

Maybe the albatross impact of this governor's immense unpopularity is reason enough for the party to get involved. A sinking tide beaches all boats, after all. But it should be noted that when a governor, even one not favored last year by the establishment, turns into a national laughingstock because of his out-of-touch policies, the Republican Party rushes to the rescue.

Contrast this with the response to Charlie Crist's woes last year. While I was never a fan of Crist because I saw his policies as opportunistic, Florida Republicans watched his approval ratings with independents and Democrats and reacted with horror. A governor who would not carry water for the far right? Detestable, never mind his boost in the polls.

Indeed, when Jim Greer was personally favoring Crist's Senate prospects, the organization went nuts. It seemed clear to me that Greer's problems began not when it came to light he was caught stealing but when local parties started holding straw polls that touted Marco Rubio's tea party popularity. In the end, the governor was utterly abandoned, not by independent voters but by his own party.

Less than a year later, we now see that same party embracing a man nobody else wants to touch. The policies which make Rick Scott disgusting to average voters make him a hero to the right. Cutting benefits and pay for public workers? Turning away free money for infrastructure improvements? It is clear to even the casual observer that Rick Scott is punishing us poor muggles in order to promote a small ring of powerful evil lords who should be able to fund their own success but intend to make life easier at the expense of the poor. This is worse than corporate welfare. This is an assault on the middle class.

And it is exactly what the Republican Party wants in a hero.

Run a Democrat for Governor!

This seems so extraordinarily obvious, but in deciding who should be the next Democratic nominee for governor of Florida, can we stick to speculating about Democrats? Adam Smith, top politics guy at the St. Pete Times, wrote up a piece about the lineup of people who want to challenge Rick Scott in 2012. Now, I realize he probably didn't write the headline, but titling the piece "Crist for Governor? As a Democrat?" just irks me.

It is no secret I don't hold Charlie Crist in the highest regard. That said, if he actually switches parties and begins helping to organize Democrats in the state, he may be able to earn my respect. But to date, he has not done so, nor hinted he might do so.

I hope the "Democratic leaders" who talked up Crist at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner realize they helped make a registered independent into the most talked about Democrat in Florida, and I hope they some day regret doing so. As I have pointed out before, Charlie Crist had a shot last year to throw in with the Democrats, but instead held a nationally-televised press conference where he said he would rather run as an independent.

He spent the entire campaign cycle last year refusing to say who he would caucus with if elected to the United States Senate. He reportedly told John Morgan he would caucus with Dems, but told Bob Dole he would caucus with Republicans. He spent an enormous amount of effort last year saying both parties were bad, and that he as Senator would save us from partisan politics altogether. Never mind he was happy to engage in partisan politics until the tea party turned his party upside down.

But I do not mean to re-engage in Crist-hating. My problem is that Florida Democrats, looking toward an election more than three years away, need to be cultivating talent within their own ranks, not recruiting defectors from the other side. Who could we run instead of a the effective leader of the Republican Party until a year ago?

Alex Sink came within a hair of winning the election for governor last year, and surely would have if not for a Republican wave that hit Florida especially hard.

Dan Gelber, while having a disappointing showing in the AG race, but is already putting together a strong public relations effort rebuking Scott and has the endurance, I believe, for a long campaign (plus he has produced the lovely stump line "Floridians are retracing their steps to figure out how they woke up with a tiger in their bathroom and Lex Luther as governor.")

Word is Rod Smith wants to run, though he probably won't is Sink, who picked him as running mate last year, gives this another go.

Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio and Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown are all strong leaders who have won high-population constituencies, and all happen to have been preceded by Republicans. Any one of them has demonstrated an ability to win over swing voters and develop a regional brand, and it should not be difficult to expand those brands statewide.

I am sure that countless other Democratic prospects will arise in the next two years as well, so long as the party looks to cultivate its own talent. The Florida Democratic Party has been in shambles for most of the last decade, but is faced with tremendous opportunity to build right now. This opportunity should not be squandered the way so many have been before.

Does Any State Stick Out to You?

This is one heck of a graphic from the Washington Post.

This data prompted the folks at Daily Kos today to call on the White House to consider a foreclosure moratorium. I would like to know if the Governor could institute a statewide moratorium. If any reader knows if that is legal or not, do tell. Clearly, the problem is much worse here than anywhere else in the United States. Consider we are the fourth most populous state, with 18.8 million living here, and you realize just how severe the problem is in the Sunshine State compared to elsewhere.

So how about a bold, lasting executive order from Charlie Crist during his last week? Or maybe a first order of business from Rick Scott to get on our good side?

What Happens to Charlie?

Of all the politicians who lost elections this month, perhaps none has solicited as much interest about their future as Charlie Crist. The reason, I suspect, is that despite coming in second place as an independent, it is hard to see what sort of future exists for the tan man.

The Times reports that short-term Charlie likely has a job with Morgan and Morgan, likely true based on the close ties between John Morgan and the outgoing governor. But of course the question isn't whether Crist can find work but whether he can ever be elected again. And frankly, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

First, he has to decide whether to run as a Republican or Democrat. Based on the election environment this year, he might have a better time on the blue team, but then, why would he make the switch? The only statewide office up for grabs is Sen. Bill Nelson's seat. But could Crist really challenge Nelson in the primary? I wonder then who would see Crist as a better Democrat, and who would see Nelson as a solid progressive.

No. If anything, Crist would run for Senate as a Republican, just as he did in 1998 and as he started to do this year before the tea party scared him out. The question at that point would be whether Republicans had tired of extremists running the party. Frankly, I don't see that happening as long as Barack Obama is still in the White House.

I have heard some talk about whether Crist could get an appointment from Obama, but then the question would be why. Already, the White House was catching flak this year for apparently sending Bill Clinton to convince a black Democrat to drop out of the Senate race to make room for sorry Charlie. So now that Crist has such a self-defeating and unsuccessful campaign that fracture the left and made a hero out of Marco Rubio, why continue to embrace the governor? I don't see that happening either.

If Crist is ever to have a second life in politics, he will have to build it from scratch. That means going back to local politics or returning to the Florida Legislature. As unlikely as that seems right now, I don't see any more viable path. As for a statewide ballot, it will be at least 2014 before Crist even has a good opportunity to run again. Who knows what the political environment will look like at that point.

Then again, my guess is that Charlie will try to adapt to that environment. His political instincts at one point were enough to scare Alex Sink from challenging his for governor. I don't know that so many would be intimidated today, but then, one misstep isn't reason to write him off. Crist is a political Madonna, capable of developing a new image any time the market changes. Expect him to do it again.

Charlie Crist, Still Proving Himself Unreliable

An intriguing little blogpost showed up on Politico today from Ben Smith. Apparently Bob Dole, the former GOP presidential candidate, believes Charlie Crist would have caucused with the Republicans in the Senate. Why am I not surprised?

Mind you, I don't believe Crist would have done that. With everything that happened in the past year, and with so much of his support closer to election day coming from Democrats, I believe he would have caucused under Harry Reid instead of Mitch McConnell, this time. Whenever control of the Senate might shift, or even come within a vote or two, Crist would bolt to whoever offered the shiniest chairmanship.

But this bolsters what I have argues for months. Charlie Crist cannot be trusted.

Why does Dole believe Charlie would caucus red? Probably because Charlie told him so.

Why, according to the Wall Street Journal, does John Morgan believe Charlie would caucus blue? Probably because Charlie told him so.

This man should have no political future with either party after this season of duplicitousness.

FL-Sen: Meek-Rubio-Crist

Update 2: Rubio is on TV now claiming victory. I'm curious to know if he broke 50 or not, but that's about all left to learn about this disaster.

Update: Right now it seems like Marco Rubio is going to win with more than 50 percent of the vote. If that sticks, I guess the great Crist or Meek debate is moot.

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If you trust the polls, this is all but over. Rubio will win in a blowout, with Crist in second and Meek in third.

I have made my feelings abundantly known. There will be no deathbed conversion for me. I vote proudly for Meek.

And while it gives me no pleasure to see Marco Rubio prep for the Senate, I revel in watching Crist's poor strategizing and constant double-crossing of values blow up in his face.

Sorry, Charlie.

Once Again, Why Meek Must Continue On

Based on the reporting being done all over the state and in Washington, D.C., it now seems apparent to me that Bill Clinton did at least broach the topic of Meek dropping out, and that Meek absolutely will not do it.

I have spent much of the last six months trying to tell progressives why they should vote for Meek and ignore Charlie Crist. I don't think I have been nearly successful enough in that endeavor, but it is clear to me now the major focus needs to be on the Democratic establishment demonstrating its support for Meek. I will lay out my reasoning below.

1. Kendrick Meek is the qualified nominee. He won a difficult and sometimes uncertain primary against Jeff Greene, and a lot of supporters weathered some heavy criticism at the time. The battle was viewed by many, including myself, felt the credibility of all Florida Democrats was on the line. The better candidate won out, and he has an obligation to carry the standard through election day.

2. This will hurt the entire party with black voters. I have argued in recent days how frustrating it is to see national Democrats rally around the very fresh-faced Scott McAdams in a three-way race in Alaska. It has occurred to me, probably wrongly, that the "demographic appeal" of one of those men may be playing into the choices. Most low-info voters don't follow all the national blogs, but I guarantee it will suppress black turnout in Florida if Democratic leaders turn their back on the first credible candidate for the Senate from Florida since reconstruction. Now, I am by no means saying, as Smooth Like Remy once said of a Kos interpretation, that "the only use Democrats have for Meek is to get the n--- out to vote for Alex Sink." Far from it. But betraying the entire African-American community in Florida isn't good for the Democrats short-term or long-term.

3. Coattails. Some may argue that with Meek polling at 15 that this doesn't matter much. But the Senate race is the TOP item on the ballot this year. There are voters who come out specifically for Meek, and almost all of them are likely to vote for Democrats in every other state office. That doesn't just include the highly-important governor's race, but races for Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner and Chief Financial Officer. There are also six or seven vital Congressional races in Florida this year where turnout is going to be what determines if we win or lose. And for goodness sake, if the DCCC is reserving ad time for Allen Boyd right now, national Democrats can at least pretend they want a Democrat running for Senate to win this race. That will help Boyd too.

4. This is an offense race for us. With all the hyperbole about how awful it would be for Rubio to be the next Senator, we tend to forget this is a seat the Republicans are defending. This isn't like races in West Virginia or Illinois where seats held today by Democrats are at risk of flipping to the other side. If you don't think Meek can win this race, just focus on another race then. Don't sabotage an outstanding, progressive Congressman's political career by throwing him under a political bus to make way for a value-less, disloyal hack like Charlie Crist.

5. When this whole fiasco got underway in April, I did suspect Crist could win, but he blew it by going exclusively for the left-wing vote. He was running like a Democrat, but was too cowardly to jump into the Democratic primary. That is what has all but won Marco Rubio this Senate seat. Rewarding that sort of behavior is not the way to set up a future where Democrats are taken seriously by Florida voters.

I'm under no delusions right now. I am casting my vote for Kendrick Meek because it is the right thing to do, not because I still believe he can win. I do think he could have taken this race if not for the meddling of Charlie Crist.

Why I'd Rather Lose to Rubio Than Win with Crist

As the sad reality of the polls sinks in for Meek supporters like myself, I realize many are pondering more seriously than ever whether they should jump ship and vote for Crist as the lesser of two evils. I cannot do so. Why? Three major reasons:

1. Rubio doesn't scare me.

2. Crist cannot be trusted.

3. Meek is still the best candidate in this race.

Now, the longer version.

For all the talk about the energy he has brought to politics, Marco Rubio is not a public official who inspires a broad group of voters. His world is one large tea party, and he only has a shot right now because of the odd dynamics of the race this year. I have seen one poll, and it was a Razzie so buyer beware, that showed Rubio at 50 percent, the normal threshold for a race. Since he is on course to win, it's easy to forget he is doing far more poorly in polls than either Alex Sink or Rick Scott in the governor's race.

That doesn't matter, I know. As I've said since I started the blog, it doesn't take much to win a three-man race like this. Someone with 40 percent is likely the landslide victor. But what do they win? With Rubio, not that much.

Rubio will be the junior senator from Florida, and a member of what is almost surely the minority caucus. The odds of the GOP taking the Senate are much lower than of them overthrowing the House. So Rubio would go to Washington with a party that is out of power, in the back of the line for any decent chairmanships, and still bears the mark of a usurper he drove Washington's hand-picked candidate out of the party. He will be there for six years, but if he spends that time boosting big oil and advocating for corporations ahead of the people, the majority of voters who in November will likely vote for someone besides Rubio are going to be ready to take the seat back for the people.

I see many out there concerned Rubio will serve as a good running mate on the GOP 2012 ticket. Folks, someone is going to run against Barack Obama in 2012. The GOP will try to put up the best they have. It is up to the president to beat out the best they have. If Rubio is the most they can muster, I'm no more worried about the president's re-election chances than I ever have been, and I haven't ever been that worried.

Now, as for Charlie, I think it is very easy for people outside Florida, or people who haven't been at all engaged in Florida politics for a long time, to forget that Charlie Crist is crazy, selfish and stupid. I wish they could see the signs on display today, but I have beaten the drums on recent issues enough. Perhaps people need some history.

This isn't the first time Crist has run for the Senate. He ran in 1998, back when incumbent Bob Graham was the most popular politician in Florida and the GOP nominee was a standard-bearer making a poetic statement while he waited for some illness to strike the Graham family. Back then, he was a hard-on crime nutjob who advocated eliminating the IRS completely. BTW, this is an interesting debate transcript, where Crist calls on Bill Clinton to resign. Why would a supposedly moderate politician say such extreme things? It served him politically. He was fairly moderate on abortion, but steered further right in coming years on that topic, not further left. For the most part, all of his positions were ones held to excite the right. Tea Party may be a new term, but the right-wing crazies have run things in Republican circles for a while. He danced for them back then, just as tried to until April this year.

It also was advantageous when he supported the FCAT system and vouchers, things which have hurt classroom education significantly but got the Charlie stamp of approval when he was education commissioner. Even just four years ago, his positions on education should have made any believer in public education wince. This man was the last elected Education Commissioner, and the GOP-controlled legislature had so little confidence in Crist's abilities to lead the Education Department that they severely limited his powers in that role.

Crist is an opportunist who has run in every single statewide election cycle since 1998 - once as Education Commissioner, once as Attorney General, once as Governor and twice as Senator. In that period, he has been all over the map on politics. That, more than any difference on environmental legislation, is what drove conservatives nuts about the guy, but just because he drives wingers nuts doesn't mean he is good news for progressives.

Right now, it serves Crist to play to the left. So he vetoes a bill the teachers hate. And he tries to convince us he's pro-choice again. Oh, and he likes gay rights now. The only difference between his shifting of positions now and then is that now, he has made miscalculations politically, and he is losing an election he might have won. If he does pull out victory, he probably will caucus with the Dems, but who knows. If the GOP took the Senate in 2012 or 2014, I am almost certain he would caucus with them. Progressives should not enable this behavior and risk the balance of the Senate on a candidates bathed in inconsistencies.

Meanwhile, Meek is running a meek campaign, but advocating principles which are perfectly in line with what true liberals want out of a Senator. He would be the first progressive representing Florida in the upper chamber since Claude Pepper, and we shouldn't spit at that opportunity. And should he get there, he will hold power.

First off, if Meek won, there would be no way for the GOP to take the Senate. None. So he would be in the majority. Plus, he would be one of few members of the Black Congressional Caucus to ever win a spot among the 100 kings. That would mean major power within that bloc, even though he would be a junior member of the Senate. Meek has more experience in Washington than any candidate in this race, and more experience as a lawmaker than either Crist, a six-year state senator, or Rubio, a former speaker term limited to eight years in the Florida House.

So I'm sticking with Meek. If he goes down in flames, so be it. It's the right thing to do. And more than any other reason, good people's willingness to toss ideals to satisfy short-term political gains is why our political system is broken. I view this as a contest between two genuine candidates: Rubio, whose politics I detest but in which many sincerely believe, and Meek, a qualified and credentialed progressive whom I am proud to support. Crist is a spoiler, an ego-maniac who plays by the rules when he can win by them, then throws out the rulebook when it proves restrictive.

This seems a simple choice to me.

Kos is Dead Wrong on This!

The mothership for progressive blogs in Daily Kos, and the site is indeed a big reason why I have a blog at all. But the front page post today by Markos is one I cannot simply ignore. The site is too influential, and the conclusion it has drawn is just too wrong.

Kos suggests that Kendrick Meek ought to drop out of the Senate race and let Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio battle head-to-head. He figures Rubio would be the likely victor anyway, but would rather see Indy Crist go down instead of Meek. I totally disagree.

Here is the nut of Kos' argument:

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It's clear that in a three-way race, this is a done deal. Democrat Kendrick Meek and Independent Gov. Charlie Crist have almost exclusively targeted each other, nuking each other while Rubio heads virtually unscathed into the Senate. So given those dynamics, this is about the only thing that might shake up the race.

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I don't want to be naive about things right now. Rubio is the clear front-runner at the moment. And it is clear the only way Rubio loses is for the roughly 60 percent of likely voters who don't want him as Senator to band around one candidate.

But think about that. Six out of every 10 Floridians are telling pollsters they will vote for someone besides Rubio, and yet he is winning. This guy is so far from a mainstream candidate he can't approach 50 percent. Crist and Meek for months have been staking out the left. And as a result, they are between the two of them holding a strong majority of support in the polls.

So who just progressives rally around? The guy with no values who a few months ago was touting his conservative credentials? Or the long-time progressive with every hope of being the first true liberal Florida has sent to Washington since Claude Pepper?

The choice is obvious to me. We have a winning strategy going with a genuine progressive.

Kos ought to calling for a deal that gets Crist out of the race. If he had any political principles at all, he would have left this race when it was clear he would lose the primary. Then he could watch Rubio go down in flames against Meek, and come back in a few years promising to bring the big tent philosophy back to the GOP after the inevitable teabagger burnout just over the horizon.

Instead, the most important and influential progressive blog online is suggesting Meek tuck tail and hide. Disgraceful. I hope Florida progressives know better than that.

Screw the Sierra Club

And the Teachers' Union too.

Well, maybe not forever. I mean, those are groups that often help energize the Democratic vote in Florida, and there aren't very many of us.

But I can't really blame Kendrick Meek for his angry rebuke today of the greenies who tried to split their endorsement and go all purple. Like the Florida Education Association before them, the Sierra Club tried to split the difference and endorse both Kendrick Meek and Charlie Crist.

From Meek:
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"This election is about taking a stand and fighting for principles you believe in. Today's Sierra Club co-endorsement is an insult to Florida's environmental community. The Sierra Club has chosen to stand with a governor who stood on stage applauding as Sarah Palin chanted, 'Drill, Baby, Drill,' a governor who signed a law making it easier for big developers to drain the Everglades, a governor who endorsed a bill that would have allowed drilling just three miles away from Florida beaches, and a governor who used polluter talking points to attack climate change legislation."
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I do tend to agree. For a group which exists purely on principles, the split-the-baby approach is entirely unbecoming.

But perhaps more important in this late stage of the game, doing a co-endorsement does more damage than good to both of these candidates. For anyone who hasn't noticed, Marco Rubio is winning this race right now, and he is doing it with six of every 10 Floridians voting against him. Does anyone think having the Sierra Club take an anyone-but-Marco stance right now will chip into those numbers? Rubio is winning the base, and only the base. These 'baggers probably don't believe there is an Everglades.

By essentially telling voters there is no marked difference between Meek and Crist on environmental policy, the Sierra Club is telling voters they don't care if the left splits its votes between a pro-development lifelong GOP darling and a member of the House progressive caucus. But having that vote split right now is exactly why Rubio is winning in the polls.

This is the same problem with the FEA, and they has just as shaky ground splitting the nod, if not shakier. That came on the heels of Crist vetoing a terrible education bill tying teacher pay to student performance, a move which would leave faculty stabbing one another to get the Honors classes and running like heck from the special ed classes, even though the lower performing students are the ones who need a good educator the most. Obviously, it is good Crist vetoed this bill, but he did not after supporting the measure the entire time it was moving through the Legislature.

That doesn't even get into the fact that Crist as a state senator wrote the bill which made Charter Schools possible in Florida, a system the FEA has fought against hard from the start. It also forgets that Crist as Education Commissioner supported such right-wing lunacy as private school vouchers and helped escalate the importance of the teacher-frustrating FCAT.

The Sierra Club doesn't mind that Charlie supported oil drilling off the coast of Florida purely so that he could be considered as a VP candidate for John McCain, and wouldn't reverse his stance until an oil rig literally exploded in the Gulf of Mexico. The FEA doesn't care that Charlie opposed measures like classroom size restrictions, or for that matter that Meek was the one carrying the union's water on that one. It's awful.

But even if these groups want to take such an unprincipled stance and back Crist, it is politically stupid to co-endorse. The position is obviously that both Crist and Meek would be better for the respective causes than Marco Rubio. Ironically, this dumb statement may be what gets Rubio a seat in the United States Senate.

Morons.

Et Tu, Wexler?

Watching the way this Senate race has played out since Charlie Crist took his Republican clothes off and started trumping down the streets in his naked independence, it has frustrated me to no end how many otherwise sensible liberals have nodded, applauded and cheered that the Emperor had beautiful new liberal credentials.

Now, fire-breathing liberal Robert Wexler has jumped in. This makes me very angry. But it's just the latest in a long list of backers that includes Charlie Whitehead and a number of other high- and low-level Democrats. And the governor is touting his support from the left pretty loudly.

To be honest, I am starting to wonder if Crist really is trying to win this anymore. Since taking a hard tack to the left, he has done nothing but bleed Republican support to the advantage of Marco Rubio while splitting Democrats with Kendrick Meek.

I worry, in my most cynical moments, that Kos is right about Rubio getting a free pass and this race tilting totally in the wrong direction. I don't want to kid myself into thinking this would have been a cakewalk if Crist died quietly in the GOP primary and there had ended up being a genuine Meek-Rubio battle in November, but I certainly think things might be easier is Crist wasn't chipping at the left full-time right now.

But people like Wexler fuel the myth that Crist is the only thing standing between Marco Rubio and the Senate. A united left would stop Rubio, and do it more forcefully than squishy Charlie ever could. That is why the Wexler endorsement hurts so much. This man literally wrote the book on standing up for liberal values, and has now thrown his weight behind a guy whose politics shift with the sands. How can someone who stood up to Bush rhetoric even at the height of jingoism now be snuggling up to Crist?

I want Meek to win. I haven't been shy about saying that. I also always figured Crist went into this race the favorite because he could siphon from the left and the right. But I never expected Crist to run this piss-poor of a campaign, and I now fear he will prove me wrong by placing poorly and ruin my hopes of a Meek win by taking the Democrats down with the ship.

But hey. Maybe I'm just in pessimistic mood. Maybe I was more on the mark last week. And for some reason, there aren't a billion polls coming out on this race right now, despite no candidate polling above 43 on a good day.

People have been chiding me for months, telling me a vote for Meek is a vote for Rubio. Well look at the world around. Crist is spoiling this race for us. He has tossed out his political future on the right, and is scorching the fields as he explores life on the left. Crist won't win this way, but can do a lot of damage. And Wexler is enabling the destruction.

Maybe I'm too pessimistic right now, and was more on spot last week. Hopefully the polling will turn around a bit as all candidates take to the airwaves with a little more oomph. Meek has people like Al Gore, Bill Clinton and Joe Biden behind him, and those should be worth more outside a small part of South Florida than Wexler could ever dream. But things have to swing into gear quick.

Memories of the SBA

It was only a matter of time before this became a campaign issue. The sloppy investment decisions of the State Board of Administration gripped government officials throughout Florida three years ago, throwing retirement funds for cities and school boards into total disarray and spawning creation of a competing investment portfolio.

And Alex Sink was a part of it. Her position on the Cabinet and SBA gave her one of three votes on the investments. Until August, the best hope of allaying any political consequence for this was that Bill McCollum, the once-presumptive GOP nominee for governor, was just as much to blame. Now Sink has secured the Democratic nomination, but Rick Scott's surprise candidacy balances out the ballot.

But I'm not that worried. I link above to a St. Pete Times on the entire SBA affair. It's a fair assessment, but it's a gobbledygook of a scandal. Basically, money managers were chasing higher yields on investments, something they really shouldn't do with a standing fund such as this, and got burned by a collapsing economy. They were running the funds like an investor looking for a quick buck, and Sink, McCollum and Gov. Charlie Crist went along.

None of it was illegal. It was all just stupid.

I was covering the City of Cape Coral when all this went down, and that city was among those who yanked their money and fled the system, never to come back. The finance director for the city got an award for the foresight, but I also spoke with other cities who felt the mass exodus created the collapse as much as the actions of the SBA. That, I would note, is an opinion not well-expressed in this piece.

But the biggest reason this won't be a candidacy-cratering controversy? It's too complicated. Sink was one of three people who supported a move which could have boosted public revenues, but always ran the risk of costing. The latter occurred. How many people have been directly affected by this? Excluding those SBA officials who lost their jobs amid the original scandal, nobody. If you don't quite understand what all happened, you are not alone.

Compare that the the biggest of Rick Scott's scandals. His company was fined for stealing from the federal government. You get that? The fine was for $1.7 billion. The loot was likely much larger. Scott likes to brag the HCA had cheap rates when he was in charge. How were they low? If he'd known, he says he would have stopped the fraud. But according to another Times expose, he was warned of problems but never bothered to check things out.

That's all pretty cut and dry. Sink, as one of three votes, supported a bad investment and got snookered by crooks.

Rick Scott's company was caught stealing.

Which story scares you the most?

Something To Note on Rubio's Surge

A few recent polls have shown Marco Rubio surging in the polls, most recently an Ipsos/Reuters which pegs the race Rubio 40, Charlie Crist 26 and Meek 21. I won't sugarcoat anything. The polls are consistent right now, so this is no outlier. Rubio is the favorite right now. But lest Democrats, or even Crist supporters, lose heart, there are some things to keep in mind.

Any pollster worth his salt knows you don't get good results randomly calling anybody with a listed phone number. Getting some hick in the woods who doesn't know where his polling place is and asking him who he supports in the Senate race will do no good. Pollsters screen voters in a ton of different ways, and the first step is usually calling people who have regularly voted before.

This election year, though, each of the three major candidates offers something to groups who have not always participated in elections before. The most notable political movement this year, of course, has been the Tea Party, and Rubio was among the first revolutionaries to benefit from the crazy zeitgeist. But if I may rub against conventional wisdom a little bit, I am not sure how many of those energized by the right-wing conservatism are truly new voters. These activists, while not folks I would characterize as smart, are informed on policy.

As demonstrated by races in Utah and Delaware, the movement has been about conservative purists taking back the party platform using the machinations of politics. For example, less than 60,000 people voted in the Delaware primary Tuesday, only about 32 percent of the Republicans in the state. Like Florida, the state has a closed primary, or else the defeat of Mike Castle surely would not have taken place. In Utah, the voting pool that ousted incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett was even more selective. Only 3,452 delegates were present at the state party convention where Bennett garnered just 26 percent and was booted from even appearing on a broad ballot.

All this is to say the Tea Party isn't made up of previously uninvolved voters. It is made up of reliable, super-involved voters. Crist would have seen the same fate as Castle had he stayed in Florida's Republican primary, but he saw the chances were better in November, and he is still right.

Crist has appeal to moderate, independent voters who normally only come out for presidential elections. And he is the rare independent who has plenty of money in the bank to reach out. While many Republican politicians yanked their support from the governor as soon as he went Indy, Crist's financial supporters have stayed true. That means he can go on TV, and can send out mailers. He can reach a target audience of people who don't like the partisanship of Washington politics and normally sit mid-terms out. As it happens, those are exactly the people he needs to motivate and get to the polls.

And they are people who don't show up for pollsters. They often get screened out, if they get called at all. Polls predicted candidates like ex-Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura would lose in 1998 for precisely this reason. Ventura won by getting people voting who had never voted.

And as for my favorite candidate? I would note Meek has been surging in the polls since he won the primary. Once polling in the low teens, he is now firmly back in the 20s, and going up. Why? For one, Democrats realize he can win. He trounced the over-monied Jeff Greene in August, and he finally got his mug on television sets. Plus, he also has an appeal to a big voting group - blacks - who notoriously are under-reprented in most elections.

Barack Obama attracted more than 65 percent of black voters to come out in 2008, surprising no one. That was about 5 percent more than came out for John Kerry, who was attempting to become out whitest president ever. Now, nobody thinks Meek has the political energy of Obama, but he can ride the coattails well. Registration increased among blacks in 2008 as well, so more voters are involved in a process to which they once felt disenfranchised. Once Meek is coating the airwaves with advertising, he will inspire voters to come out in hopes of electing Florida's first black Senator since reconstruction.

So the polls favor Rubio today, but the pollsters likely ignore the greatest sources of political opportunity which exist for Meek or Crist. And as noted before, this has been the most dynamic election year ever in Florida. I wouldn't underestimate the possibility of any outcome on Election Day.

Crist Comes Out For Gay Rights

What to do. What to do. Raw Story says Charlie Crist is going to come out this week with a position paper favoring gay rights. He will oppose Don't Ask Don't Tell, support gay adoption, etc.

After writing so often about what a hypocrite Crist is about so many issues, how do I react to this story? Hmmmm...

I guess I can't think of anything. We'll just have to see how this plays out in the media. In the meantime, he is a link to some wedding pics.

Come Home to Meek!

Florida Democrats, unlike voters in some parties, cannot be won over by flashy yachts, glitzy ad campaigns and an self-funded onslaught of distortion. That was proven Tuesday evening when the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate went handily to U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek. It has yet to be proven, though, whether the slick pseudo-independent message of Gov. Charlie Crist can sway the well-informed but highly pragmatic voters in the Sunshine State.

I hope the larger message about Meek that comes from the primary is that Meek is a winner. Admittedly a young and untested politician, the South Florida Democrat showed he can endure a well-financed and vicious campaign. He showed that more than a half-million voters can be inspired to come out in August and throw their support to progressive, fresh face.

Meek's 58-35 victory of billionaire Jeff Greene shows on its face a resounding endorsement. A deeper look at the numbers reveals Meek won big in those parts of Florida which will be most important to Democrats this fall. He didn't take all counties. Far from it. But the places where Greene played well, in Southwest Florida and the Panhandle, are places notorious for large Dixiecrat voters poisoning the progressive pool.

I've often said I trust a Dixiecrat less than a conservative Republican. After all, the Republican is honest about his or her ideals, however wrong-headed, and will boost the party platform closest to those ideals. A Dixiecrat often votes against the party, particularly in federal races, angry at the way national Democrats in the past 40 years have embraced blacks and started hugging trees. Back in the Strom Thurmond days, Southern Democrats had their own plans about blacks and trees.

So let's just say those Panhandle voters saw something with Jeff Greene that they could relate too which had little to do with ideology. Or perhaps they were even attempting to sabotage the primary and elect the Democrat with the least general election appeal. Either way, I'm not so concerned to see Kendrick lose in Okaloosa County, or in rural parts of the peninsula like Glades and Hendry counties. I'm not even too upset to see Greene take Lee and Collier counties. All of those places are going to be the Republicans fighting ground come November. And with any luck, GOP nominee Marco Rubio and Crist will be fighting it out in those places.

I suspect Crist will try and shore up those areas where he has won before. While he has philosophically tacked left since first toying with independence, he has yet to win a race as anything but a Republican.

And there is a growing consensus that Meek's presence on the ballot makes Crist a weaker candidate. Die-hard Cristies have even argued with me on liberal blogs that Meek is going to "split the Democratic vote." That's like saying Al Gore siphoned off too many votes from Ralph Nader in 2000. Democratic votes that go to Crist will be ones lost to Meek, not the other way around.

I can't lie and say a Meek victory will anything but a tough row. But starting today, I think this will shift more toward being a Meek-Rubio race. That is hard enough with out Crist's orange glow interfering with the political landscape. Rubio, in primary with no serious opposition, got more than 1 million votes last night. Certainly, more voters came to the polls for the tight gubernatorial race, but Rubio was the clear choice of nearly 85 percent of Republicans even when Rick Scott and Bill McCollum were creating a rift in their party. By comparison, Alex Sink took less than 76 percent of the Democratic vote against token opposition the gubernatorial primary.

Public Policy Polling put out a highly-pubicized poll Tuesday (yeah, I'm talking about polls again) which showed Rubio at 40 percent going into the general election campaign. But I think that's all the support he will ever see. Unfortunately, in a three-man race that is enough if Meek and Crist split the vote. But that is why Democrats need to rally around the real Democrat in the race.

Meek will caucus with the Democrats. Crist won't say, likely because he knows many of his supporters still want him to go to Washington in effect a Republican. But even if Crist does caucus with Dems, he will never be a progressive. We will have our own Joe Liberman, at best! With Meek, we get the most progressive politician to represent Florida in the Senate since Claude Pepper.

There are 10 weeks to decide, but in choosing, don't write off Meek as a candidate who can't win. Indeed, he is the only candidate running to have a won a contested race in this Senate campaign. Remember that.

Primary Day - FL-Senate

Update: Greene has endorsed Meek. That's nice. Now he can start unmailing all those negative ads that painted Meek as a near-felon.

Update: I think this one is done. Meek is still riding above 55 percent right now and Greene can't break 40 percent. Even before we eliminated the runoff, it looks like Meek would have won this. Let it be remembered that Democrats were not hypnotized by big money today. And let people look at the Governor's race to see whether Republican voters are so wise.

Meek goes into the general now a bona fide winner, and has proven he can beat back better-funded foes. People need to remember when deciding how to vote in November that this man can win elections. He can fight the good fight. Think Crist is the only person who can fend off Rubio's army of crazy? Forget it. Meek is just as poised to win, and at this point, is the only candidate in the race to emerge victorious in a legitimate contest.

Update: Looks like Kendrick Meek is winning big, taking about 55 percent and far outpacing Jeff Greene. Very good news.

And for what its worth, Marco Rubio has absolutely secured the nomination for the GOP.

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The biggest contest of the night as far as I am concerned. Kendrick Meek, distinguished U.S. Congressman, fights for the soul of the party against billionaire vanity candidate Jeff Greene. You can guess where I stand. Maurice Ferre, an accomplished Miami politician, has earned some love in polls, but not much, while Glenn Burkett seems an absolute non-factor.

On the GOP side, former Speaker Marco Rubio is the presumptive nominee by every measure possible. He does have to win the formal nomination tonight over Billy Kogut and William Escoffery.

Of course, the nominees go up against the rare independent front-runner, Gov. Charlie Crist. Readers of this blog know Crist has already staked out the nonpartisan prize that is a complete lack of core values.

So Sick of Polls

I recently heard USF Professor Susan MacManus suggest Florida is over-polled on politics. Being a swing state for presidential elections and host to a competitive Senate race most cycles, that is possibly true. But right now, I am wishing it wasn't getting polled at all.

A new Quinnipaic has some interesting results, but at this point, I find myself taking everything with a grain of salt. Their data shows shows Alex Sink winning the governor's race against either Bill McCollum or Rick Scott, but shows both Republicans getting the exact same percentage (29) and Bud Chiles pulling in 12 percent regardless of who wins the GOP nomination. That odd coincidence was enough to make RedState write off the poll. Which I kind of understand.

Of course, they loved the poll that shows Marco Rubio winning the Senate race in a Rubio-Charlie Crist-Kendrick Meek matchup. I said then the poll shouldn't be taken seriously. Now I wonder if any should.

The only axiom in politics is that only one poll matters. That, of course, is the true results on election say. There is so much interest in Florida's gubernatorial and Senate contests that we are getting polls everyday offering different results. It is easy to find comfort in a poll which shows your guy on top, and I am as guilty as any there. Yesterday, I posted something on McCollum leading Scott in the polls, and planned to do another post yesterday on Meek beating Greene.

But a poll can be found to support any candidate. Jeff Greene. Rick Scott. Every candidate that matters has seen a poll come out in the last five weeks which showed them on top. The results vary greatly. That is because the questions asked vary, and the voter screening is different. Enough so that the numbers may best be described now as crap. And if the opinion of the public on these candidates is so malleable it can shift 11 points in two days, then there is no way pollsters can get voters on the phone fast enough they don't their minds.

So I am giving up on polls at least until after the primary. No more will be sourced on this blog until we know the candidates on the November ballot.

Obsessing Over a Poll Which Should be Ignored

Why cannot I not resist this? A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Crist slipping in the general election, and losing to Marco Rubio if Kendrick Meek is the Democratic nominee. It also shows him winning if Jeff Greene is the Democratic nominee, but also shows Jeff Greene losing the primary. The funny thing about this poll is that it can be spun as good news for every single candidate in this race, and indeed I cannot help but see the good news for my favored candidate.

But let me remind, both for myself and any readers who stumble on this site, this poll doesn't matter. A general election mock-up in a race where the Democratic nominee is uncertain means nothing. To glean meaningful results in mid-August is mostly kindly described as foolhardy.

Yet, here I go. My reasons why this is good news for Kendrick Meek:

The poll shows the congressman leading vanity billionaire candidate Jeff Greene by a whopping 40-26. Since that race is a week away, this actually does matter. If this poll is to be believed, and there have been polls with different results, then voters have been educating themselves, and Meek's message is winning out despite the steady flow of nasty mailers from the Greene campaign. If nothing else in this poll is to be taken with much regard, at least this provides good news for Meek in the Aug. 24 election.

Also, it shows Meek is gaining traction in the general. While more Democrats support Crist than Meek right now by a margin of about 45-36, and about 11 percent of Democrats remain uncommitted in Meek is the nominee. That leaves great opportunity for swaying the fence-sitters and poaching Crist support. With Meek on the November ballot, it shows the race at 38 for Rubio, 33 for Crist, 18 for Meek and 11 undecided. While that is scary stuff, support is not obviously too firm. Should Crist lure Republicans into his fold while Meek wins over the undecideds, he can do this. As I has stressed repeatedly, you only need 40 percent of the vote, maybe less, to win the seat this year.

But now I sober up. If I were inclined, I would read this poll other ways as well.

For Rubio: You only need 40 percent to win this, and with Meek on the ballot, Rubio is almost there already. Assuming the support for the major candidates is firm, Crist would need to take the significant bulk of undecideds to win, and this is already out of reach for Meek. A Greene primary win would complicate things, but this poll makes that seem unlikely. Plus, his support is secure. He hold 38 percent whether the race is against Crist and Meek, or against Crist and Green. This shows him losing with Greene on the ballot in a 39-38-12 battle, but that means he and Crist are statistically tied, and that Crist's supporters are fickle.

For Greene: Meek has proven repeatedly he does not have a loyal groundswell of support among Democrats, and millions worth of mailers are surely going to chip in to Meek's lead in coming days. Plus, this will motivate those pro-Crist Democrats who seem intent on spoiling their own party primary. Should he get on the November ballot, Greene has more in his couch cushions that Rubio or Crist can hope to raise, and every poll has shown support for all established candidates seems very soft.

For Crist: OK, this is a stretch, but this is still showing a Crist victory with Greene on the ticket, still a real possibility. And Rubio is still appealing almost exclusively with base Republican voters. Crist still kills Meek in every poll, even among Democrats, and as election day creeps closer, more Democrats will jump ship and back Crist just to stop Rubio unless the Democratic nominee can turn this puppy around.

My head is spinning. So please, please ignore everything I have said. I will try and forget it as well, and we can just pretend this post never happened.

In Defense of Kendrick Meek

At the start of the Senate campaign this cycle, I was among the many who had serious doubts about Kendrick Meek. Back then, it didn't matter much. Charlie Crist, then a Republican, seemed to be the slate-cleaning candidate who scared every serious Republican and Democratic challenger away. But over the past several months, it has become increasingly clear to me that Meek is no sacrificial lamb. At least he should not be. I believe he is the best shot we have at sending a truly progressive senator to Washington since the days of Claude Pepper.

That makes it all the more frustrating to see so many dismiss his candidacy. This kind of nay-saying is contagious, and has created a conventional wisdom that Meek has no shot at winning the race. The irony is that the reasons many use to justify such an opinion are exactly why he has as good a chance as he could ever hope. Meek is a black, southeast Florida liberal who, in a normal election year, would endure setbacks for all of his attributes. But thanks to a fractured right and election law that allows the Senate race to be won with a plurality, this election should be shaking down exactly as the Democrats could normally just dream.

Admittedly, he has challenges in a primary run from Jeff Greene. The self-financed vanity campaigns of Greene and Rick Scott has shaken up the races this year in ways Florida might never have endured before. But educated, activated Democrats are the ones who will vote in August. So long as informed liberals avoid the distraction of glossy mailers and sweaty television campaigns, we should have a strong candidate in Meek for the general election.

Come November, there is no reason Meek cannot beat Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio. This is where many of you will start jumping up and down and calling me naive. But please hear out my reasons.

The number one reason I hear from Democrats who plan to vote for Crist is that Rubio cannot be allowed in the Senate. But consider the visceral response to Rubio and ask yourself how broad an appeal he might have? Republicans benefit this year from an activated base, which I concede does help Rubio, but also because they offer an alternative to the party in power. In most major Senate races, they offer the only alternative. Not in Florida.

Those independent and moderate voters that tend to swing against the incumbent party in ugly times would normally vote Republican in a race like this. Don't like Harry Reid's track record? Hold your nose and vote Angle. Of course, Angle is so nutty many voters in Nevada can't stomach doing that. In Florida, they don't even need to try. Indy-Crist will get those votes, but he won't get the base. What would normally be a winning formula - crazy nuts+disenchanted moderates=Republican Senator - has been severely disrupted by Charlie's mad rush to the center.

Where does that leave us? With the highest number of registered Democrats in state history. Thanks to the Obama juggernaut in 2008, more young people are on the books as registered Dems. More blacks feel like they are a part of the political process as well. And here we are, with a baby-faced, distinguished African-American as our nominee for state office for the very first time. What about this sounds like a poor position?

Of course, in a two-man race, appeal to the left would not be enough, Meek would need to make huge concessions to the center and swear he won't be so pro-worker in the Senate. We've seen this with Betty Castor, whose issues with Sami al-Arian made her remiss to oppose the Patriot Act, and to very real degree with Bill Nelson, who won on a corporate-friendly platform that secured broad support but has left many liberals in Florida wanting more.

Meek only needs to win with 35-40 percent of the vote to have a landslide victory. It becomes more apparent each day Rubio cannot win because moderate Republicans won't support him. Crist is a pariah among conservative partisans, and his actions in recent months show how aware he is of the fact Democrats must play a role in any victory in November.

But while Crist polls well in the summertime, he will not be named in any robocalls funded by the Florida Democratic Party or the Republican Party of Florida. President Obama will not stump for Charlie Crist. Indeed, I doubt the president could avoid making some trips in support of Meek. The theory Obama will tacitly support Crist, perhaps pragmatically and perhaps out of spite for Meek backing Clinton in 2008, ignores the optics of the first black President turning his back on potentially the first black Senator from the fourth largest state in the union. No state as large as Florida has sent an African-American to the Senate. How could Obama spit on that possibility without angering many black leaders in this state?

So don't give up on Kendrick Meek. If you look purely at his positions, he offers the most to progressive voters of anyone on the ticket. And if you look at his odds of victory, and take a big picture look rather than glimpse at a mid-July poll, you see this may be the best shot we have a true liberal victory for a very long time.

Special Session Lasts Less Than Three Hours

So much for saving our coasts. Both chambers of the Florida Legislature adjourned within hours of lawmakers arriving in Tallahassee.

Roughly 43 minutes after convening the special session of the Florida Legislature today, House Speaker Larry Cretul adjourned, spitting in the eye of Gov. Charlie Crist and pissing all over the chance to put a question before voters this year on banning oil drills in state waters.

From Sunshine State News:

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“The Florida Constitution authorizes the governor to call the Legislature into special session for any legislative purpose,” said Cretul. “When the call is issued, we are compelled to assemble.

“But from the moment a quorum assembled here, the agenda in this House is and always will be set by its membership.

“The governor has no direct authority to propose constitutional amendments to voters. The governor has no veto power over proposed constitutional amendments. The fact remains that he has called us here at the last possible moment to consider a constitutional amendment for which he never proposed language and permitted far too little time for reflection and review. That is a terrible way to propose constitutional changes.”

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I was hoping Senate President Jeff Atwater would go ahead and follow through with a vote in his chamber because he has been such a champion in the fight against offshore drilling. Alas, no. Instead, he closed up the Senate and blamed both Crist and Cretul for putting politics ahead of state interests. And in the state capitol no less. Also, he is shocked, shocked!, that there is gambling at the Hard Rock.

At least he left the door open for coming back to Tallahassee to tackle this, suggesting a broader call by the governor could lead to a longer, perhaps even multi-day, session.

Via TBO:

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"I firmly believe there is much more meaningful work that can be done,'' he (Atwater) added. "It is quite likely we will find ourselves here again in the near future.''

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So what does this mean politically?

Clearly, there is little love among Florida GOP leaders for the recently independent governor. But Cretul is surely not so inept as to think this hurts Crist with voters. This furthers the narrative Crist is the true independent voice in the Senate race. In Charlie's world, Marco Rubio represents the wingnut fringe and Kendrick Meek doesn't exist. Sigh.

For Atwater, this gets him out of a political pinch short-term. He is running for CFO and enjoys being the anti-drilling Republican on the state ballot. By letting this break down into a process question, it avoids the risk of Atwater leading an unsuccessful charge to get a referendum on a drilling ban before voters. That said, he is now on record against discussing a drilling ban, and Democratic opponent Lorrane Ausley is on record in support. This, in many ways, is the opening she needs to take the high ground on an important statewide issue where Atwater has always enjoyed good standing.

This also opens up the door to criticism of lawmakers around the state that they place politics ahead of saving the state from the black doom in the Gulf of Mexico. Who sees the upside to this? Some inland lawmakers, who likely weren't at risk over drilling anyway, won't be badly hurt by a vote quashing a drilling debate, but a vote to end the session by coastal Republicans seems to me an easy thing for opponents to prey on. Of course, that assumes lawmakers have opponents in elections.

Sadly, this really shows how broken the Tallahassee political system remains. When there is no accountability for our leaders, then they will not react to crisis in a way the first benefits the voters. We have seen special sessions called to discuss property taxes and insurance rates, to discuss education reforms and other highly politicized topics. The argument a vote on oil isn't necessary right now, even as sludge creeps to our shores, is ludicrous when compared to previous calls.

But it is what it is. Now it is up to environmentally-minded voters in Florida to use this against opponents of clean beaches.