First, it acknowledges that Bill McCollum would have been a more difficult primary opponent for Alex Sink in November. In many ways, I think that is true. McCollum had more years in public service than Sink, while Scott had less. McCollum had more name recognition from four statewide runs for office, while Scott remains a political novice. And yet, Scott beat McCollum by three points.
Public Policy Polling, the only pollster to nail the gubernatorial primary results for Tuesday, has a new poll out now which pegs Sink 7 points up, but I'd be a hypocrite to argue repeatedly that Democrats would come together in the Senate post-primary but suggest the same would not happen here. Many Republicans who are not very enthusiastic about Rick Scott still don't want a Democrat in the governor's mansion, and will hold their nose in November. Meanwhile, those outsider-loving voters who see this criminal as the savior of their party will enthusiastically bubble in Scott's name.
Of course, the notion this guy is going to come and clean up a mess left by "career politicians" is kind of like the Enron guys to show the AIG guys how to balance the books. But that is beside the point.
Sink needs to be running like she is 7 points down right now. Scott's numbers will go up. And if he pumps another $50 million into this over the next 10 weeks, and honestly he will probably pump in more, a big chunk will go toward driving Sink's negatives up. As Chief Financial Officer, Sink has not been in the most press-heavy of Cabinet positions. To many voters, she is an unknown. And her private sector resume, a successful run at Bank of America, doesn't lend the same credibility it once could offer.
But Sink still has a great deal to offer. She is a successful businesswoman and proven statewide winner, something not prevalent within the Democratic Party. The role she has played with Leadership Florida creates an instant network of expert support to lean on both as a candidate and a governor. In her time of the cabinet she has been on the right side of debates on oil, and has been a voice of reason to counter the actions of a Republican-dominated Legislature and Governor.
Also, as noted by the St. Pete Times/Miami Herald team, Sink is far better connected with the Tallahassee crowd. With the absence of a Republican insider, those business leaders who have worked the Capitol hallways so well just might favor the known quantity of Sink over the unpredictable, fraud-ridden Scott. In other words, there are advantages to be an insider, and Sink should use them.
But there also must be an assault against Scott. He can not be treated as some he-who-must-not-be-named. McCollum has done much of the homework here for us. But we need to keep reminding the general public that this guy's private sector success was running a company which earned a record fine for stealing tax dollars. A friend noted to me the other day that the $1.7-billion settlement HCA earned was likely a fraction of the money bilked, and the $300,000 severance package Scott received was barely a pittance from a board that profited so handily from the company's dirty deeds.
The only way to defeat this evil is to stare it in the eyes and deliver the truth. Scott has already shown himself to be evasive, short-tempered and dumb.
But he is also rich, and willing to spend loads of dough. Florida is a notoriously expensive state in which to run a campaign, but he can afford it. The Democrats cannot allow him to write his own sugar-coated biography that says he ran a hospital with high satisfaction and low bills, never mind how the bills were kept so low. He can't tout himself a successful businessman, never mind getting fired. He can't describe himself as transparent, never mind an unwillingness to release depositions.
This campaign is going to be hard for Democrats to win, maybe harder than against the establishment-backed but charisma-free McCollum. And Sink better not think she won anything in Tuesday's Republican primary.
P.S. Hey Bud, Please Withdraw.
I am curious to see if Sink will take a step slightly towards the middle to appeal to the independents and conservatives who do not want to see a crook like Rick Scott in office. If she gives the incentive that she would follow through with some moderate action, then I think she would have a better chance of winning. Florida is cut through the middle and we need someone who will cater to both sides.
ReplyDeleteI am a fiscal conservative and I am somewhat liberal on social issues. I read your blogs, not because I am affiliated with your party, but because you actually put reason into your party's support. I am curious to your response on my above statement. Unfortunately, I don't think that Sink will take that stance. It would be nice if she would, so I wouldn't have to put my faith into a crook like Rick Scott. To me, the only thing worse than a right wing extremist is a left wing extremist. Besides being opposed to Rick Scott, a majority of what non-democrats have seen in regard to Sink is that she is far left.
Welcome. I am excited to have folks from any ideological point of view reading and contributing to conversation on this blog. From my experience, it is the time after the primary when candidates make that move to the center. Of course, Alex Sink didn't have a competitive primary, so it will be interesting to see what she does.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is that if Bud Chiles shows himself capable of sustaining support above 10 percent, she will move further to the left, not further to the right, in order to shore up her base. But that isn't really what I expect will happen.
As a Democrat, I can tell you I have never considered Sink that liberal at all, so I enter with that bias. Part of that is that the language she feels most comfortable speaking is based in finance, not politics. Sink is very pro-business, and I expect she will stress that part of her resume going forward, and will campaign very little on social issues. Her time as CFO and her background with Bank of America give her a certain backdrop to her candidacy that would help in running as a moderate. The only think working against that theory, though, is that a history in banking isn't such a hot item on a resume as it was 4 years ago, the last time she ran statewide.
It's sad to look back and think about all of the idiots who voted for Rick Scott ... and all of the damage that they've done to Florida.
ReplyDeleteEven sadder to think of all of the people who would have voted against him who didn't bother.
People need to wake up and realize how important it is to vote.