Run a Democrat for Governor!

This seems so extraordinarily obvious, but in deciding who should be the next Democratic nominee for governor of Florida, can we stick to speculating about Democrats? Adam Smith, top politics guy at the St. Pete Times, wrote up a piece about the lineup of people who want to challenge Rick Scott in 2012. Now, I realize he probably didn't write the headline, but titling the piece "Crist for Governor? As a Democrat?" just irks me.

It is no secret I don't hold Charlie Crist in the highest regard. That said, if he actually switches parties and begins helping to organize Democrats in the state, he may be able to earn my respect. But to date, he has not done so, nor hinted he might do so.

I hope the "Democratic leaders" who talked up Crist at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner realize they helped make a registered independent into the most talked about Democrat in Florida, and I hope they some day regret doing so. As I have pointed out before, Charlie Crist had a shot last year to throw in with the Democrats, but instead held a nationally-televised press conference where he said he would rather run as an independent.

He spent the entire campaign cycle last year refusing to say who he would caucus with if elected to the United States Senate. He reportedly told John Morgan he would caucus with Dems, but told Bob Dole he would caucus with Republicans. He spent an enormous amount of effort last year saying both parties were bad, and that he as Senator would save us from partisan politics altogether. Never mind he was happy to engage in partisan politics until the tea party turned his party upside down.

But I do not mean to re-engage in Crist-hating. My problem is that Florida Democrats, looking toward an election more than three years away, need to be cultivating talent within their own ranks, not recruiting defectors from the other side. Who could we run instead of a the effective leader of the Republican Party until a year ago?

Alex Sink came within a hair of winning the election for governor last year, and surely would have if not for a Republican wave that hit Florida especially hard.

Dan Gelber, while having a disappointing showing in the AG race, but is already putting together a strong public relations effort rebuking Scott and has the endurance, I believe, for a long campaign (plus he has produced the lovely stump line "Floridians are retracing their steps to figure out how they woke up with a tiger in their bathroom and Lex Luther as governor.")

Word is Rod Smith wants to run, though he probably won't is Sink, who picked him as running mate last year, gives this another go.

Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio and Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown are all strong leaders who have won high-population constituencies, and all happen to have been preceded by Republicans. Any one of them has demonstrated an ability to win over swing voters and develop a regional brand, and it should not be difficult to expand those brands statewide.

I am sure that countless other Democratic prospects will arise in the next two years as well, so long as the party looks to cultivate its own talent. The Florida Democratic Party has been in shambles for most of the last decade, but is faced with tremendous opportunity to build right now. This opportunity should not be squandered the way so many have been before.

In Defense of Sink

I find it curious that Chuck Todd would focus so much on Florida this year, but take serious exception to his naming Alex Sink the worst candidate of the 2010 election cycle.

Certainly, Sink made some missteps, most notably in trying to force Bud Chiles out of the primary. That contest could have raised her profile and aired all dirty laundry early rather than fighting off attacks from Rick Scott in October.

But in general, I think Sink ran an outstanding campaign. Her biggest problem was a GOP tide that seemed to sweep the nation, something which led to Democratic losses in every statewide contest and in every Congressional race which was at all competitive. Why should Sink take all the heat for that loss?

Todd's explanation, via the Palm Beach Post:
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"You lost to a guy who defrauded Medicare, in Florida! Okay? More people on Medicare in Florida than maybe any other state."
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But Todd's criticisms seem aimed exclusively at Scott's weaknesses as a candidate, not in the way in which Sink ran her campaign, or in her own qualifications for governor. Why wasn't Bill McCollum also included on the list today, then? He, after all, couldn't even convince party regulars to get him through the Republican primary against Scott.

The reason Rick Scott won is because of money. Plain and simple. Those senior voters Todd seems to allude to, many of whom retired her with amazing pensions and who have no need for Medicare, are more affected by television advertising. They don't sift through the blogs all day. They don't spend all their time personally researching candidate's backgrounds. They allow the war to be waged during commercial breaks during golf tourneys and soap operas.

Sink certainly devoted an enormous amount of advertising to exposing that record. I think few voters were left unaware come November that Rick Scott has pled the fifth 75 times.

The race was up and down all cycle. In early October, Scott was riding momentum from a primary win pretty strong. But in the following weeks, Sink pulled ahead. It wasn't until the GOP machine, focused on retaking the House of representatives, started to get into gear that a wave took the nation, and the state.

That seemed to swallow campaigns which otherwise had the upper-hand. Ron Klein was leading in most polls until the last few weeks. Joe Garcia once held a strong edge over David Rivera. Yet they both got trounced on Election Day.

Remember, Alex Sink's loss was the closest of any contested race in Florida that held any national significance. She fought off the impending GOP wave better than any other politician in Florida. It just wasn't enough. She was no Harry Reid, but she didn't run a poor campaign either.

Alex Sink and Progress on Sexism

Something struck me the other day as I was contemplating the governor's race this year. So many reasons have been brought up to suggest exactly why we lost, but the absence of one reason shows me there is at least one culture war we won. I have heard nobody, not one person, suggest the reason Alex Sink lost is that she was a woman.

Is sexism dead? I think it's a little too soon for that conclusion. But consider that just two years ago, it was totally acceptable to attack Hillary Clinton on totally sexist grounds.

Rick Scott called Sink a debate cheater, an SBA screw-up, and an Obama clone. But not once can I recall him using gender-derogatory language, and I can't find it on Google either.

This seems to me a pretty big accomplishment after such a sexism-tinged election just two-and-a-half years ago. And sure, our candidate kind of had a guy's name, but this was a very high-profile race, and one that was a real squeaker.

So the fact it was not considered fair game to attack her based on gender, and as far as I can tell no one in the Scott camp even considered doing it, I think some pretty good stuff was accomplished this year.

FL-Gov: Sink-Scott

Update 5: There is no joy is RFF-ville. Mighty Alex has struck out.

Update 4: With 99 percent in this morning, it's still too close to call, but we are down about 50,000 votes. That sounds a little outside the mandatory recount box. But we will probably have to wait 10 days for all provisional and overseas votes. The provisionals typically trend D, the military R. I wouldn't get out hopes up too high.

Update 3: We really need to see some good figures from Palm Beach. That is Democratic territory, so there is hope. But other than that, this race is done. Guard the tax coffers. Rick Scott is packing for the governor's mansion.

Update 2: Well, this appears now to be our only hope. Most of the vote is in statewide, and with the arrival of votes from Hillsborough and Miami-Dade, the election is now within 4 points. That said, Scott has led the entire night. If he wins, I will have a lot to blog about tomorrow, if I have the heart. But right now, neither candidate is above 50.

Update: Right now, Rick Scott is ahead by about 100,000 votes. About 29 percent of the vote is in.

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This one is keeping me up at night. The polls show this one is neck and neck, making me question my faith in the voters of Florida. Alex Sink is a good candidate, probably the best we've put up for governor in 16 years. She won't say that because her husband ran eight years ago, but she is a much better candidate than he was.

Rick Scott, meanwhile, is about the worst candidate I have seen in a major race ever during all my years watching Florida politics. The only thing he has in his favor is money, and he got so much of that through ill-gotten means that I can't imagine any halfway-educated voter wanting to give this guy the keys to the governor's mansion.

I hope Sink breaks away today and wins this by a significant margin. But we will see.

Don't Lecture Us On Cheating, You Fraud!

Entirely too much ink is being spilled about a passed note in the CNN debate. I find it ironic someone who tends to answer questions by taking the Fifth could get the upper hand on this ridiculous discussion.

If you haven't heard, a staffer sent Alex Sink a message during her debate. That was against the rules. Sink fired the staffer, Brian May, for sending it. And Rick Scott has spent a couple days thumping Sink for cheating.

So what did the note say? The reported text was "The attorney who won the Sykes suit said alex sink did nothing wrong. Tell not to let him keep talking about her."

That was because Scott was distorting Sink's private sector record by attacking Sykes Enterprises. That is part of the whole bad investment mess which Republicans are using to hammer Sink, but the note from May is true. The problems with that case were not Sink's fault, nor her responsibility. And they were small potatoes compared to the massive fraud conducted by HCA under Scott's watch.

And what would passing notes do? Theoretically, it could let a candidate have an upper hand because staff was conducting research on the side. But this matter never came up in the debate again after Sink received this illicit note. It's like looking at your neighbor's test but not using any of his answers. Is that cheating? Receiving a text message but not leveraging any advantage from that?

This is nonsense and straight-up political hay. Of all the substantive issues discussed in the debate, of all the important matters facing Florida today and of all the relevant parts of these candidates' personal histories, this is the issue gripping Florida's political press less than a week before the end of the campaign.

Straighten up, Florida. Learn something important. When Alex Sink is governor, I hope she relies on detailed research and facts, and I hope she utilizes a hard-working staff to full effect. If Scott wins, maybe we can expect him not to rely on any help and just exercise his best personal judgement. And we all know how well that has worked out for him before.

Bill McCollum is Dead to Me

I have defended him, to loved ones in private and to the blogosphere online. But right now, Bill McCollum is dead to me. He has done the unthinkable and betrayed Florida to the enemy,

He has endorsed Rick Scott:

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Our state needs conservative leaders who will grow our economy and create jobs. We need merit pay and an end to teacher tenure in our public schools, major litigation reform, smaller government, low taxes and a repeal of Obamacare... It’s the better choice for Florida.

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I never expected McCollum to endorse Alex Sink, of course. But he had no obligation to chime in on behalf of this lunatic candidate. There is no decent reason to play the partisan for the executive branch. Immediately following the primary, he was talking about helping legislative candidates statewide. That seemed a fine and noble end for the politician.

Now he backed a man who he should be serving subpoenas.

This race isn't about ObamaCare. And Rick Scott isn't about small government. He is about corrupting the process.

I could understand McCollum backing down six years ago and endorsing Mel Martinez even after the soon-to-be Senator had called the "new darling of the homosexual extremists." That was for a Senate seat, and partisan caucusing matters in the Senate. This is crazy.

The worst Scott has been able to throw at Sink is that she didn't do enough to stop bad investments at the SBA, where, it should be noted, she was the Democrat in the minority. Who were the Republicans in the majority? Bill McCollum and Charlie Crist. He has countered the temerity of Scott's attacks on Sink before, but now stands with Scott.

I take back everything nice I ever said. Bill McCollum is dead to me.

Rick Scott Would Ban Abortion!

Any doubt Rick Scott's election would have major consequences? Well, he is assuring Florida lawmakers that he will push and sign into law which would ban abortion. This law would obviously be an affront on Roe v. Wade, but coming from the fourth most populous state in the union, would likely make its way to the Supreme Court. Anyone wonder what a Roberts-led court would do with this one?

From the Orlando Sentinel:

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An e-mail sent out by Rep. Charles Van Zant this week urges his supporters to vote for Scott because he personally promised to sign into law the “Florida Right to Life Act.” Van Zant, R-Keystone Heights, added that “Scott pledged that he would assist in advancing the Florida for Life Act through both Florida’s House and Senate.”

Van Zant, a minister and an architect, added in his e-mail that he had a follow-up conversation with Scott about whether the Naples businessman would make abortion illegal in Florida: “He immediately said ‘Yes, that’s what I believe and that’s what I will do.’ He telephoned me last week to assure me that he would keep this issue before our state government,” Van Zant added.

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All of Scott's campaign ads, of course, just stress that he is some donut shop-loving guy who would bring business sense to Tallahassee, and that Democrat Alex Sink is an Obama-loving politician who blew the pension fund while daring to like Obama.

But this shows he is quietly energizing the far right with the ultimate dog whistle. Imagine the pro-lifers in Florida right now, learning that their vote in a few weeks could be what overturns a woman's right to choose. Sure, Scott as a health care executive had no problem profiting off of abortion, but if he is willing to push through this ban, it could set into motion the greatest SoCon mission ever. If the wingers weren't energized before, this will do it.

Read the reporting by Gary Fineout and you see Scott has give an endorsement of the bill all the way down to banning abortion even in cases of rape and incest. The only exception the Van Zant bill makes is for when a woman's life is at risk, and then it requires multiple doctors to sign off on the abortion.

In the past, Van Zant has filed this legislation just to see it die, but he never had a governor pushing the bill before. Should this bill come to a floor vote, the Legislature will pass it. Earlier this year, they had no problem with passing an onerous bill requiring patients to watch an ultrasound of a fetus before having an abortion. That bill passed mostly so lawmakers could embarrass Charlie Crist with the right, but a majority of members in both houses of the Legislature passed it. And all signs are that incoming House Speaker Dean Cannon and Senate President Mike Haridopolos will be more conservative than their predecessors.

That is why this race is the most important race for Florida Democrats to win. Alex Sink would not only be the first female governor for the state of Florida, she would be the only think standing between a woman's right to choose and a conservative Supreme Court that has just been salivating for a strong challenge to established law on abortion.

Rick Scott isn't just crooked. He's crazy. And he must be stopped.

Fighting Rick Scott's Mo'

One of the things that has frustrated me to no end in this supposed "anti-incumbent" environment is the way the narrative has so thoroughly turned pro-Republican. This is especially frustrating in Florida races, where the state government has been so dominated by the GOP so that Democratic legislators were lucky to get office space in Tallahassee, but certainly haven't held influence in some time.

Rick Scott, of course, rode the anti-incumbent wave to victory in the gubernatorial primary against Bill McCollum. To run against Alex Sink as some kind of Tallahassee insider is disingenuous, and if the Democrats can't successfully point that out, it will be a travesty.

A couple new polls, most notably Quinnipiac and Voter Survey Service, are showing Sink behind Scott right now by narrow margins. Of course, polls not so long ago were showing Sink with a commanding lead, but the mo' is clearly with Rick right now. A good candidate always runs like they are 10 points down, and there is no reason to panic yet. Among other things, the polls in Florida have blipped up and down more often than most nursing home heart monitors.

But there is no question Sink needs to seize the narrative and remind voters that she is no heir to any political dynasty. Until four years ago, she had never run for office. Four years before than that, her husband Bill McBride was the outsider running for governor, but unfortunately did so at a time when Florida was less receptive to a "throw the bums out message."

As the only Democrat on the Florida Cabinet, and most prominent political leader for a party with virtually so significance in Tallahassee, Sink always has been an outsider. It is true that Washington today is run by Democrats, though it certainly hasn't been true for long. But putting a Democrat in the governor's mansion here for the first time in 12 years would be a much bigger change than Scott could possibly provide.

So how can Scott get away with playing the little guy to Sink's big government insider? He's a gazillionaire with all too much experience turning the wheels of government to his own advantage. He isn't some working class hero. He is Ken Ley with better access to physicians. Enough of this crack.

Sink is the candidate who will shake up the Capital. She is the one who will provide much-needed oversight to a Legislature working under one-party rule, while Scott would conspire for more of the deregulatory, pro-rich anti-government which helped put Florida among the hardest states hit by the recession.

But she has less than a month to make sure voters know that. Better get started.

Memories of the SBA

It was only a matter of time before this became a campaign issue. The sloppy investment decisions of the State Board of Administration gripped government officials throughout Florida three years ago, throwing retirement funds for cities and school boards into total disarray and spawning creation of a competing investment portfolio.

And Alex Sink was a part of it. Her position on the Cabinet and SBA gave her one of three votes on the investments. Until August, the best hope of allaying any political consequence for this was that Bill McCollum, the once-presumptive GOP nominee for governor, was just as much to blame. Now Sink has secured the Democratic nomination, but Rick Scott's surprise candidacy balances out the ballot.

But I'm not that worried. I link above to a St. Pete Times on the entire SBA affair. It's a fair assessment, but it's a gobbledygook of a scandal. Basically, money managers were chasing higher yields on investments, something they really shouldn't do with a standing fund such as this, and got burned by a collapsing economy. They were running the funds like an investor looking for a quick buck, and Sink, McCollum and Gov. Charlie Crist went along.

None of it was illegal. It was all just stupid.

I was covering the City of Cape Coral when all this went down, and that city was among those who yanked their money and fled the system, never to come back. The finance director for the city got an award for the foresight, but I also spoke with other cities who felt the mass exodus created the collapse as much as the actions of the SBA. That, I would note, is an opinion not well-expressed in this piece.

But the biggest reason this won't be a candidacy-cratering controversy? It's too complicated. Sink was one of three people who supported a move which could have boosted public revenues, but always ran the risk of costing. The latter occurred. How many people have been directly affected by this? Excluding those SBA officials who lost their jobs amid the original scandal, nobody. If you don't quite understand what all happened, you are not alone.

Compare that the the biggest of Rick Scott's scandals. His company was fined for stealing from the federal government. You get that? The fine was for $1.7 billion. The loot was likely much larger. Scott likes to brag the HCA had cheap rates when he was in charge. How were they low? If he'd known, he says he would have stopped the fraud. But according to another Times expose, he was warned of problems but never bothered to check things out.

That's all pretty cut and dry. Sink, as one of three votes, supported a bad investment and got snookered by crooks.

Rick Scott's company was caught stealing.

Which story scares you the most?

Sink Kick's Scott's Hiney in Fundraising

Division of Elections reports show enormous fundraising successes for Democrat Alex Sink in the wake of the state primary. I would like to think that would give naysayers some pause as they predict the doom of the Democratic Party this November.

Alex Sink grabbed a cool $525,000, compared to in Rick Scott's $43,000. I know that doesn't mean a huge amount because Scott is just going to bankroll the race the same as he has done to this point. The man has loaned a shocking $38.9 million to his own coffers so far. But this does show a huge enthusiasm gap in our favor.

From the time Rick Scott first reported figures in April up until the end of the last reporting period of Sept. 3, the Republican has only collected just over $567,000 in cash donations. Sink has taken in around $8 million. And since she is showing a 2- to 7-point lead in recent polls, the news is roses right now for Florida's CFO.

All of the data, be it financial or in the polls, indicates that Sink's supporters want her to win. That makes a huge difference going forward. After a bitter and divisive primary, one which offered Bill McCollum supporters few reasons to support Scott with any sort of enthusiasm, the Republicans are in bad shape when it comes to the gubernatorial race.

In a year when the Tea Party voters get all the press, and a year when so many people supposedly are frustrated with the Democrats, the Republican Party of Florida has to be very frustrated right now. But this is predictable. Bill McCollum ran a lackluster campaign and got beaten by a terrible candidate with a huge bankroll. All of the establishment Republicans in the state, from Jeb Bush to Jon Thrasher, found themselves with egg on their face, spending Primary day at what had to be a very depressing party in Central Florida waiting to hear McCollum concede.

Now, most party establishment has officially gotten behind Scott, but Scott had made them look stupid. He called the state GOP corrupt, labeled all Tallahassee insiders as a major problem, and now has no concrete party support. Plus, McCollum did everything he could to point out the ten shades of sleazy that color Scott's shadowy past. Independent and liberal voters did not vote in the GOP primary, but the learned plenty about Scott along the way. And while Sink coasted to her party's nomination with nary a bad word said, Scott had poisonous negatives come dawn on Aug. 25.

Things will change, of course. Scott will run nasty campaign ads which tar Sink as a Tallahassee insider as well. He will ask voters if they really want a former Bank of America executive handling Florida's purse strings. He will subtly raise questions whether we are ready for a female governor, and drop hints about whether the woman is too liberal if she won't take her husband's last name. All the crap he has, he will throw.

But we know that. McCollum was taken by surprise. He may have known Scott was a crook, but could not anticipate the tactics Scott would employ is his vanity-driven, shameless power grab of a campaign. We know. And so do voters.

The Novelty of Running Mates

I have tried for more than a week to try and figure something interesting to say about the selection of running mates by candidates for Governor, but I just can't see as much interest in the choices as many suggest. Ultimately, the role of Lieutenant Governor is one that holds far more bearing with the press than it does with the public, as demonstrated by Pam Bondi's defeat of Jeff Kottkamp in the Attorney General primary last week.

Bill Clinton once said that choosing a running mate was the first act a candidate could do which seemed presidential before they were actually elected president. Or something. I can't find the quote online.

That's true, but like any appointment, it gets picked apart by the public more than it gets praised, if anyone notices at all. And I think for gubernatorial candidates, that is even for true.

Alex Sink made a choice that was "safe" picking Rod Smith. Rick Scott "bucked conventional wisdom" with Jennifer Carroll. Neither decision will win any votes for either candidates. And honestly, they won't lose any either when the cards are finally down. It will be Sink and Scott who get judged by the general public, not their choices for Lieutenant Governor.

My thoughts are this. Scott picked somebody with legislative experience, something he doesn't have, so it is no bucking of any wisdom that he would choose an experienced politician to balance out his ticket. He also picked a black woman, two other things which he is not. The obvious political reason for this is that it will broaden the appeal of his ticket, except it won't. Black voters will still go overwhelmingly for Alex Sink. I guarantee it. When Carroll ran for Congress against Corrinne Brown, she never made any significant headway against the liberal black House member. The notion that running black Republicans will make more black voters rush to a ticket whose leader thinks reaching out to Hispanics means eating dinner later, or register with a party which has proudly chipped away at affirmative action measures, is a conservative pipe dream. Yes, there are black Republicans, but this decision won't be what brings them to polls any more than a lack of black candidates has kept black Democrats voting the other way.

Bottom line: more people label Carroll's selection as craven pragmatism than bold politics, fairly or unfairly. But come election day, nobody will remember this.

As for Sink's choice, I think most voters have forgotten already. Sink decided to announce her pick days before the Primary election. The idea was that it would suck some news attention away from the heated GOP primary at a time when the Democrat was coasting to the nomination. But did anyone notice that linked TBO story already had figured Smith to be the top choice? A former state Sen. and state attorney, Smith has a legislative background Sink lacks, providing the same professional balance Carroll does for Scott.

But this man is as vanilla as they come. White. Male. Failed statewide candidate in the last race for governor. Is just doesn't get more exciting than this. Will large numbers of people come and vote because of Smith? They haven't before.

So now the campaigns have two people who will do campaign events, though crowds will probably only show up for the gubernatorial candidates themselves. They have two people to place phone calls to donors, though the donors who get a thank you from the LG candidates will know how low they are on the Christmas card lists.

Smith and Carroll are both experiences state legislators, and if there is any genuine duty involved in the job of Lieutenant Governor, it is working directly with lawmakers to get bills passed. But politically, these choices are about the least important decision Scott or Sink has to make this season.

Chiles Supports Sink, McCollum Stays Mum

It is official. Bud Chiles has ended his independent run. But I think the more surprising thing is that he has endorsed Alex Sink. From his online sign-off:

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"This decision to step aside comes with many emotions – sadness, yes, but also resolve and faith that our message has not fallen on deaf ears. While she and I have some differences, I am confident that she will wake up every morning determined to fight for what’s best for Floridians."

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He draws a stark difference, of course, with zillionaire Rick Scott, who "may not have the best interest of Floridians at heart." I call that an understatement, but then, I am no politician or statesman.

But I want to draw a stark contrast with this and Bill McCollum. As quoted in The Buzz, McCollum has congratulated Scott but has no plans to endorse. Apparently, after a slash-and-burn campaign where Scott refused to disclose much about himself but tarred and feathered a long-serving public servant, McCollum still has questions about "his charecter, his integrity, his honesty."

I don't think that is just sour grapes. I was amazed in 2004 when Bill McCollum, after a grueling primary in which Mel Martinez called McCollum the "new darling of the homosexual extremists," McCollum ended up backing the GOP nominee. What is different now?

This is an executive post. McCollum may have had a professional respect in 2004 for Democrat Betty Castor, but he was not going to back anyone who would caucus in Washington with Senate Democrats. In collegial legislative bodies, party matters. So does philosophy, and whatever personal gripe he had with Martinez, the two aligned politically, and Martinez would promote a similar agenda to the one McCollum had in Congress.

But a major thing to consider as Chiles endorses Sink is this. Chiles has no obligation to back Sink. He challenged as an independent. There is no party commitment. He hasn't run before and may never run again. McCollum, though, has somewhat of a partisan obligation to back the victor of the primary in the general election. Right now, he is choosing not to do so.

That truly speaks volumes.

Thanks for Listening, Bud

Bud Chiles is out of the race for governor, according to numerous media sources. I think it is pretty clear he heard the very reasoned calls of Rantings From Florida to drop out if he is too afraid to run as a Democrat.

More seriously, though, this is the first time I have felt good about Rick Scott winning the Republican nomination. Whether Chiles was frightened by the blackness pouring from Scott's soul or simply intimidated by his millions, I believe fear of a Scott victory shook some sense into the pragmatic activist. If he was scared of Sink's personal fortune, he had to realize Scott buys millionaires of Sink's caliber to feed to the pit of souls he got in the HCA settlement. This was never a race that Chiles could win, but until today, it seemed likely Scott could, if only by buying the mansion outright when the market is low.

Earlier this week, I responded to a conservative reader's question on whether Alex Sink would move to the left or the right as the general election drew closer. I predicted then that if Chiles stayed in the race, she may have to move to the left, but that I thought her more suitable as a centrist candidate. I know that is a dirty word in the blogosphere, but the most important thing for any candidate to be is authentic, and with a pro-business ex-banker running on her record as the state's Chief Financial Officer, we need to accept that Alex Sink is an authentic moderate Democrat.

Just as important, we should understand that a chief executive in Florida will have to placate an electorate not known for extreme liberalism. We have a great opportunity to elect a true liberal to the Senate, where ideology matters far more. But Alex Sink, a loyal Democrat whose roots are in corporate management, is a good choice for the Governor's mansion, and likely the best we can get right now.

Somehow, Sink has become a favorite to win an election in which every poll showed her losing a few months ago. Despite a natural environment and a conventional wisdom that this is a Republican year, the Democratic Party in Florida is poised for its most successful cycle in recent memory. Every Cabinet post has potential to swing our way. And in Congress, I still see the potential for us to pick up a seat and defend all challenged incumbents.

I have given Bud Chiles a hard time for nearly foiling his father's legacy, but today, I applaud him, and thank him for doing the right thing. His support, which has floated anywhere from 9 points to 19 points depending on the pollster, will most likely swing to Sink. Honestly, much of it would anyway as horrified Chiles supporters were faced not merely with the prospect of conservative but respectable Bill McCollum but of the sinister criminal mastermind Rick Scott. This was the best thing for Democrats and the best thing for Florida.

Thanks for listening, Bud.

Defeat the Dark Lord Voldemort!

In my opinion, there has been entirely too much enthusiasm within the left regarding Rick Scott's victory on Tuesday night. The general consensus seems to be, he's a buffoon so we can make mince of this guy. But that logic is terribly flawed.

First, it acknowledges that Bill McCollum would have been a more difficult primary opponent for Alex Sink in November. In many ways, I think that is true. McCollum had more years in public service than Sink, while Scott had less. McCollum had more name recognition from four statewide runs for office, while Scott remains a political novice. And yet, Scott beat McCollum by three points.

Public Policy Polling, the only pollster to nail the gubernatorial primary results for Tuesday, has a new poll out now which pegs Sink 7 points up, but I'd be a hypocrite to argue repeatedly that Democrats would come together in the Senate post-primary but suggest the same would not happen here. Many Republicans who are not very enthusiastic about Rick Scott still don't want a Democrat in the governor's mansion, and will hold their nose in November. Meanwhile, those outsider-loving voters who see this criminal as the savior of their party will enthusiastically bubble in Scott's name.

Of course, the notion this guy is going to come and clean up a mess left by "career politicians" is kind of like the Enron guys to show the AIG guys how to balance the books. But that is beside the point.

Sink needs to be running like she is 7 points down right now. Scott's numbers will go up. And if he pumps another $50 million into this over the next 10 weeks, and honestly he will probably pump in more, a big chunk will go toward driving Sink's negatives up. As Chief Financial Officer, Sink has not been in the most press-heavy of Cabinet positions. To many voters, she is an unknown. And her private sector resume, a successful run at Bank of America, doesn't lend the same credibility it once could offer.

But Sink still has a great deal to offer. She is a successful businesswoman and proven statewide winner, something not prevalent within the Democratic Party. The role she has played with Leadership Florida creates an instant network of expert support to lean on both as a candidate and a governor. In her time of the cabinet she has been on the right side of debates on oil, and has been a voice of reason to counter the actions of a Republican-dominated Legislature and Governor.

Also, as noted by the St. Pete Times/Miami Herald team, Sink is far better connected with the Tallahassee crowd. With the absence of a Republican insider, those business leaders who have worked the Capitol hallways so well just might favor the known quantity of Sink over the unpredictable, fraud-ridden Scott. In other words, there are advantages to be an insider, and Sink should use them.

But there also must be an assault against Scott. He can not be treated as some he-who-must-not-be-named. McCollum has done much of the homework here for us. But we need to keep reminding the general public that this guy's private sector success was running a company which earned a record fine for stealing tax dollars. A friend noted to me the other day that the $1.7-billion settlement HCA earned was likely a fraction of the money bilked, and the $300,000 severance package Scott received was barely a pittance from a board that profited so handily from the company's dirty deeds.

The only way to defeat this evil is to stare it in the eyes and deliver the truth. Scott has already shown himself to be evasive, short-tempered and dumb.

But he is also rich, and willing to spend loads of dough. Florida is a notoriously expensive state in which to run a campaign, but he can afford it. The Democrats cannot allow him to write his own sugar-coated biography that says he ran a hospital with high satisfaction and low bills, never mind how the bills were kept so low. He can't tout himself a successful businessman, never mind getting fired. He can't describe himself as transparent, never mind an unwillingness to release depositions.

This campaign is going to be hard for Democrats to win, maybe harder than against the establishment-backed but charisma-free McCollum. And Sink better not think she won anything in Tuesday's Republican primary.

P.S. Hey Bud, Please Withdraw.

Primary Day - Florida Governor

Update: AP Just called it for Scott. The campaign has declared victory on its website. Crap.

Update: So this looks like Scott, who has 57 percent, but it would be crazy early to call it now. Big counties, notable Broward and Duval, have not done full, if any, reporting. That means this could swing in a big way if McCollum did well in the cities. But that's a big if. Those are markets where media saturation could work in Scott's favor.

Update: Still well over a dozen counties have yet to report any votes at all. But so far, Rick Scott is holding onto the lead. So much for those polls showing McCollum with an 11-point advantage. Unless something turns, he won't even get the nomination.

Update: This will be very, very close. Right now, Rick Scott is winning with 46 percent to McCollum's 44 percent. Too close and too early to tell.

But Alex Sink is in. The Democratic primary is cleary over.

---

The big race is on the Republican side where Attorney General Bill McCollum battles Rick Scott and also ran Mike McCalister.

For the Democrats, expect Alex Sink to win the formal nomination over sometimes Green Party supporter Brian Moore.

So Sick of Polls

I recently heard USF Professor Susan MacManus suggest Florida is over-polled on politics. Being a swing state for presidential elections and host to a competitive Senate race most cycles, that is possibly true. But right now, I am wishing it wasn't getting polled at all.

A new Quinnipaic has some interesting results, but at this point, I find myself taking everything with a grain of salt. Their data shows shows Alex Sink winning the governor's race against either Bill McCollum or Rick Scott, but shows both Republicans getting the exact same percentage (29) and Bud Chiles pulling in 12 percent regardless of who wins the GOP nomination. That odd coincidence was enough to make RedState write off the poll. Which I kind of understand.

Of course, they loved the poll that shows Marco Rubio winning the Senate race in a Rubio-Charlie Crist-Kendrick Meek matchup. I said then the poll shouldn't be taken seriously. Now I wonder if any should.

The only axiom in politics is that only one poll matters. That, of course, is the true results on election say. There is so much interest in Florida's gubernatorial and Senate contests that we are getting polls everyday offering different results. It is easy to find comfort in a poll which shows your guy on top, and I am as guilty as any there. Yesterday, I posted something on McCollum leading Scott in the polls, and planned to do another post yesterday on Meek beating Greene.

But a poll can be found to support any candidate. Jeff Greene. Rick Scott. Every candidate that matters has seen a poll come out in the last five weeks which showed them on top. The results vary greatly. That is because the questions asked vary, and the voter screening is different. Enough so that the numbers may best be described now as crap. And if the opinion of the public on these candidates is so malleable it can shift 11 points in two days, then there is no way pollsters can get voters on the phone fast enough they don't their minds.

So I am giving up on polls at least until after the primary. No more will be sourced on this blog until we know the candidates on the November ballot.

Don't Get Excited Yet, Alex

It's old news now, but Alex Sink has pulled ahead in the governor's race, according to a new poll released today by Public Policy Polling. She beats McCollum 37-23 and Scott 36-30. There are no trend lines worth noting, as the last time PPP took a look at this race was in March. Furthermore, no other poll shows Sink leading on both Bill McCollum and Rick Scott, though a poll released earlier this month showed her ahead of McCollum.

But for a million reasons, there should be no breaking out of champaign. This poll has plenty of bad news for Sink. For 54 percent of voters, Sink in unknown, a bad thing considering she has served as Chief Financial Officer now for four years. She even remains unknown by 49 percent of Democrats. This isn't surprising to me. One thing I'd like to see polled, just for curiosity, is how many people think Alex Sink is a man. I, for one, find myself correcting her gender virtually every time her name comes up in conversation. Meanwhile, only 36 percent view Rick Scott as an unknown, and just 33 percent have no opinion of McCollum.

One curiosity, independent son-of-someone-famous Bud Chiles is only viewed positively by 12 percent of those polled, yet comes in at 13 percent in a matchup with Sink and McCollum and pulls 14 percent in a race with Sink and Scott. While he can't be called a spoiler if Sink wins, that likely shows there are some people willing to vote for Chiles based purely on his late father's good name.

What distresses me most about the poll, though, is the continued trend of Sink performing worse against Scott than McCollum. Scott is so slimy, I can't imagine why anyone would be more inclined to vote for him than any alternative. That shows more about the crooks-over-politicians mentality that poisons the tea conservatives are drinking. I've complained about this before, but there really is no core value that should drive conservatives to support Rick Scott. It is a disgrace to the philosophy that this man gains any support at all.

At this point, though, Scott is the nominee. He has extraordinary problems, and fortunately, Bill McCollum is matching Scott dollar-for-dollar in advertisements explaining everything wrong with the disgraced hospital executive as a gubernatorial prospect. Scott's negatives rise every day, and the PPP poll shows 41 percent of voters already realize he is bad news.

But since they have no opinion of Sink whatsoever, Scott can still beat Sink in the general election. That leaves the Democrat a window from now until the Aug. 24 primary election to make sure everybody in Florida knows who she is, and thinks good things about her going into November.

Don't believe Rick Scott is going to run out of money before the general. The man is sitting on more ill-gotten loot than you'll find on the Pirates of the Caribbean ride. He will spend every day between Aug. 25 and Nov. 2 beating the heck out of her on the air. Sink's negatives are now at 22, but Scott will make sure they go up. Sink's positives sit at 24 today. It is her job to make those rise. While Scott and McCollum are arguing about how much taxpayer money should be wasted in their mudslinging contest, Sink needs to get on TV and convince voters she is the real deal before an utter fake starts telling them otherwise.

Money Still Matters Most

Bill McCollum's welfare campaign and Rick Scott's election purchase have taken the Republican primary into the courthouse, a great irony for the party which so fervently fights placing any power in the hands of the Florida judiciary. McCollum won round one of his court battle Wednesday, a surprise noted by Steve Singiser at Daily Kos, but getting stuck on the courtroom drama misses the greater point demonstrated in this war of riches.

If this decision stands, which is far from certain, it doesn't change that McCollum is being outspent by $25 million and has only $800,000 on hand six weeks before the primary. It also doesn't change the fact Rick Scott has no experience in public service, and his greatest private sector accomplishment was chairing a health care company that defrauded the federal government for billions. This is the worst viable candidate in the modern era with a real chance to move into the governor's mansion. No amount of ill-gotten loot buys this man credentials or erases his failures.

And yet he is winning. A Chamber of Commerce poll released last month showed Scott, a failed HCA executive, with a five-point edge over McCollum, a sitting attorney general who is running his fourth statewide campaign. On Monday, Reuters released a poll which shows Scott beating Alex Sink, Florida's Chief Financial Officer, by four points but shows McCollum barely losing to the certain Democratic nominee.

I know a lot of people are getting excited because this is the first poll in forever which shows Sink ahead of McCollum, but at this point I find it highly unlikely McCollum will make it through the primary. The amateurishness he demonstrated in dealing with Scott's upstart campaign has doomed him to another victory party where the balloons never drop. More disturbing to me is the now plentiful amount of polling data which shows Scott beating both McCollum and Sink. Often the differences are statistical ties, as is the case with the Reuters poll, but Scott clearly has the momentum.

Does anyone expect public financing to turn the tide? This strange and constitutionally-shaky law basically provides a dollar to McCollum for every dollar Scott spends beyond a public financing cap. But McCollum hasn't effectively used the money he has, and I doubt that will change when he gets his hands on taxpayer finances. Republicans complain about government waste? How about spending $6 million in state revenue trying to save Impeachment Bill's political hide?

That's a snarky comment, but I bet many of the conservatives voting in this primary will be upset by that irony. These same voters have shown no reluctance to embrace Scott's get-rich-by-any-means shenanagins. McCollum tried going negative on Scott, but it didn't work. Scott put out the "Unfortunately That's True" ad, which just may go down in Florida Politics history as the most brazen mea culpa to ever be featured in a multi-million TV blitz. I didn't think this sort of "I'm a Crook, So What!" message could resonate outside of Louisiana, but it did.

Clearly, McCollum didn't anticipate Scott surviving a storm of bad press. We know that because it seems to be all the Attorney General has talked about for the past two months. There are no ads touting McCollum's specific accomplishments as AG or as a member of Congress. He is running a losing campaign, and we are suffering the consequence. Indeed this is where the political incompetence of a failing former frontrunner has potential to doom us all. Scott will walk away from the August primary smelling like a winner, and he still leads Alex Sink in all polls.

So if McCollum gets his public financing, fine. It won't matter, but maybe he can use it to tarnish Scott's bad name a little more before moderate and liberal voters get a swing. But don't think Scott will stop campaigning just because he lost this court battle. Remember McCollum only gets money when Scott spends it, and Scott has shown a willingness to spend whatever it takes to governor. It just may work.

Yes, McCollum is awful, but...

It has been brought to my attention that I may too gentle and respectful of Bill McCollum on this blog. Many of those closest to me suggest that I am ignoring many of the deplorable acts, past and present, for which the gubernatorial candidate is responsible. It made me ask myself, have I been too kind to this Republican ideologue? Has his mild-mannered demeanor made me forget the reactionary inside? Most importantly, am I being too nice?

The answer is... Yes, but there is a better reason than those listed above.

That reason is Rick Scott, who so far has shown himself to be a Tea Party corporatist's fantasy candidate. Between his anti-immigrant rhetoric and unapologetic record of fraud, Scott has shown zero qualifications and boasts a bio which indicates more reasons not to vote for him than to cast support his way. Yet, a Florida Chamber poll released this weekend indicates he leads McCollum in the Republican primary for governor by five points, outside the poll's margin of error. The same poll shows both Scott and McCollum beating Democrat Alex Sink in the general election, and Chiles pulling in just enough as an independent to ruin Sink's chance at catching up.

So what is a good citizen to do? Route for the crooked billionaire? I have trouble doing that. For all his flaws, McCollum also has a record of public service fighting for federal dollars to come to Florida, especially in his old House district. Right now, it is also hard to forget his consistent opposition to oil drilling.

But I admit Scott's record of deception and failure within the private sector would make him a great opponent in the general election as far as our side is concerned. The Democrats ought to be able to tear him apart with ads reminding of Scott's poor judgment at HCA. Does anyone recall the way Sen. Mel Martinez made the entire 2004 Senate race about Democrat Betty Castor's handling of a single professor while President of USF? We should be able to play the same game with Scott, and do it more effectively. After all, his work in charge of HCA is the only real background he has that would qualify him for office, and he was such a failure there he was driven out by the board of directors after paying more than a billion in fines.

So part of me doesn't want to risk a Scott gubernatorial term at all. But will it be harder work to beat McCollum in the general election? Perhaps, but let me submit this clearly overdue laundry list of his flaws.

Remember that highly unpopular impeachment of a sitting President because of a sex scandal. Bill McCollum walked the impeachment papers to the Senate and was among 13 Congressman acting as prosecutors in the Senate trial. Because he was so incompetent and completely wrong, he lost despite a Republican majority in the Senate.

Looking forward to the benefits of health care reform? Well sit tight because pending litigation may delay the effects of the landmark legislation. Who would file suit against improvements to the system? Bill McCollum, and he is doing it with Florida state money. If this was just some tea party quack filing a frivolous suit, it would get dismissed, but McCollum will use the power of the AG office to push this to the Supreme Court. And guess what he thinks of regular people filing frivolous lawsuits, like those filed when health care screws people. Yeah. he doesn't like those so much.

And did you notice the Republican Party of Florida was in shambles? He didn't.

So maybe I have been too nice to Bill. Maybe he deserves to lose in August and be denied a November defeat. Maybe he is no worse than Scott. Maybe for a candidate so intent on limiting government, it is embarrassing to have a resume with nothing besides government jobs and temporary lobbying work.

But hopefully we won't need to be that mean. It seems Scott and McCollum are interested in destroying one another before the end of August. If Alex Sink can stay above the fray and develop a positive reputation among voters while those two sling mud, it may not matter who gets the Republican nomination. But until then, I concede it is important liberals in Florida know exactly what is at stake. And they shouldn't get so distracted by the polls. Scott remains untested electorally, and McCollum has lost more statewide races than he has won. With luck, these guys will marginalize themselves, but if they can't get the job done, we should be ready to finish it.

The Power of the Map

Florida seems the perennial swing state in every presidential election. Yet the Legislature is dominated by GOP lawmakers, and Republicans far outnumber Democrats within the Congressional delegation. The reason? The GOP drew the map for all state House and Senate districts, as well as every Congressional seat in the Sunshine state. How did that happen? And why is it important this year? Because the once-a-decade reapportionment season is upon us, and whoever wins the gubernatorial race will likely determine whether there are 10 more years of GOP domination in Florida or if the Democrats have a fighting chance at fair representation.

While most people are aware of the Census conducted by the federal government at the beginning of each decade, few realize the political ramifications once people get counted. Among other things, the legislatures of every state get to work drawing districts of roughly the same population for whatever offices for which that in necessary. In Florida, that means redrawing 120 state House districts, 40 state Senate districts and however many Congressional districts the Feds say are appropriate. After the 1990 and 2000 censuses (censi?), Florida picked up a total of six Congressional seats, substantially raising both Florida's electoral influence and the political stakes of redistricting.

In 1990, the Democrats controlled the Legislature under Gov. Lawton Chiles, and of course drew a map that was favorable to the left. But before the decade was out, Republicans joined forces with the NAACP and filed a lawsuit demanding the courts gerrymander districts and increase minority representation.

I'm sorry, I don't know if that sunk in with everybody out there. Let me say it again. Republicans joined forces with the NAACP and filed a lawsuit demanding the courts gerrymander districts to increase minority representation.

That makes no sense, you say? But it does. Blacks were historically under-represented in Florida, so the NAACP saw an opportunity challenging the maps in Florida to get seats drawn with majority-minority constituencies. The result of such gerrymandering, though, is that reliable Democratic voters get siphoned into specific districts. This gave us Congressmen like Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, and it cost us dearly in terms of Congressional possibilities. Here is an NYT article on the subject from 1990 as suits in a number of states were being prepared, in case you don't believe me.

Over the course of the decade in Florida, Republicans gradually took a majority of seats in the state House and Senate. In 1998, they finally won majorities of both chambers. Then in 2000, just as term limits were for the first time forcing many entrenched incumbents into retirement, the margins for the GOP rose to astonishing levels. Jeb Bush also happened to have taken the Governor's Mansion, so the GOP was free for the first time in decades to draw a legislative map to their liking with no fear of a veto. Seats previously drawn for Democratic lawmakers, such as the one held by now-Florida Democratic Party chairwoman Karen Thurman, were redrawn so Republicans could win them. Other seats were custom fit for lawmakers, such as a Central Florida seat which happened to be stretched in a way to contain then-House Speaker Tom Feeney's home.

Technology also allowed micro-reapportionment like never before seen. Senators offered amendments presented on floppy disk, and electioneers got into chambers to engineer nearly perfect districts for all lawmakers. Sometimes the Democrats who were in the Legislature seemed complicit in deals, going along with redistricting so long as their own seats were mapped in ways that favored the incumbents. Did the effort go perfectly for the GOP? Of course not. In the Democratic wave two years ago, Rep. Feeney was ousted from his hand-drawn seat by Democrat Suzanne Kosmas. Rep. Ric Keller, a Republican who barely won election into the House in 2000, had a safer seat drawn to protect him, but lost it two years ago to super-liberal Alan Grayson. But it should be noted those two Congressional seats are the only ones Cook Political Report lists as toss-ups in Florida right now, so victory may be fletting.

And for the most part, the map has done good by the GOP, better than they likely deserve. Consider Barack Obama won this state in 2008, and George W. Bush skated by infamously close races in 2000 and 2004 (and yes, that is a very generous assessment of the 2000 election for Dubya). Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson coasted to statewide victory four years ago. Republicans win most statewide offices here, but it is hardly a Republican-only electorate.

And because of this, it is extremely important Alex Sink win the governor's race if Florida Democrats want hope in a plethora of other contests. We can't win the state House or Senate this year, for precisely the map-rigging detailed in this post. Think the Congressional map is skewed? Check out the state House map. The best option we have for oversight on the process is having a Democrat in the Governor's Mansion. It would be the first time in decades that different parties controlled the veto pen and the mapper's quill. The threat of veto hopefully would lead to fair districts, and if not, Sink could override a crooked map as the governor and force lawmakers to give a second go in a special session. If necessary, courts could step in.

Bill McCollum or Rick Scott would let the lawmakers draw out their own fantasy maps, as Jeb Bush did in 2000 and, frankly, as Lawton Chiles did in 1990. If a GOP governor is elected, get used to another decade of minority rule.