FL-02: Boyd-Southerland

Update 3: Southerland has claimed victory. This is done.

Update 2: Boyd is under 40 right now, but still talking up supporters. This will run the night before he offers a concession, but I am pretty sure that is how it will end.

Update: Well, Boyd is down, but still above 40 percent. It looks bad, but maybe it's not over. I wish Division of Elections was posting precinct returns by district.

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This is the race I am most pessimistic about this cycle. It is not a good year to be a Blue Dog, and I suspect Allen Boyd will be Florida's Lincoln Chafee '06, an incumbent viewed as a moderate but punished anyway for caucusing with the party in power.

Boyd has the endorsement of the NRA and support from Chamber leaders, but he voted for ObamaCare, and that's enough for Panhandle voters to hand him a pink slip. Who is Steve Southerland? Who cares? He's a Republican.

I'd love to be surprised. Personally, I feel a Blue Dog is better than no Democrat at all. But Boyd performed much worse in the primary than I expected, and he has never been able to pull the party back together.

Are there Kosmas Polls We Don't See?

The news this week that the DCCC was pulling out of Florida's 24th was widely viewed as a sign that Suzanne Kosmas is toast. The move surprises me, because the race looks neck-and-neck from where I sit. That doesn't mean the conclusions are wrong. It just seems odd to me that the nationals would give up on Kosmas just when it felt like fighting time.

It makes me wonder if there are polls sitting in the DCCC offices to which we aren't privy. That's no surprise of course. Partisans tend to release polls with good news and sit on polls with bad news. But then, Sandy Adams hasn't exactly been issuing repeated polls showing a growing margin. Obviously, if things are tight, I'd rather save Alan Grayson myself, but then, I think we can still win both of these seats.

The last poll released by the NRCC, back on Sept. 28, put Adams 10 points ahead. But the day before,Kosmas put out a poll showing herself up by 7. Since then, its been silence from both camps. Unfortunately, House races don't get polled enough, so its hard to tell what to make of these polls. While internals are treated with skepticism because campaigns are reserved about what they release, candidates still need accurate information on where they stand.

Compare the data to a recent Sunshine State out of Florida's second which shows Steve Southerland trouncing incumbent Allen Boyd 56-30. Now even pessimists have questioned this poll, which gives a couple of also-ran candidates a combined 14 percent of the vote. But nobody in Democratic circles is yet talking about throwing in the towel in the Panhandle seat Boyd holds now.

Maybe it's because Boyd is a long-time incumbent and Kosmas is a freshmen. Maybe they figure Kosmas' seat was hand-drawn for Tom Feeney and we just got jucky two years ago when the Abramoff scandal swallowed Feeney whole. But this whole thing just seems odd.

The thing is, Sandy Adams has been the subject of much negative coverage since winning the GOP primary. Her extremist positions on the 17th amendment and a woman's right to choose make her prone to effective attack ads. When Florida Today endorsed Kosmas, they said Adams "lack of knowledge about NASA is appalling," something which matters a great deal in this space-happy district. And while we're talking endorsements, Kosmas snagged the support of the Republican-leaning Orlando Sentinel as well.

Can the NRA save Boyd?

I admit, it would be funny if we end up owing this Panhandle seat to the National Rifle Association. But gun control happens to be one of those issues I have never felt so concerned about. I felt their basic message in the past (Guns don't kill people, people kill people) had some sense to it. Some time ago, unfortunately, the NRA went well beyond gun control and started opposing murder control.

Still, the group understands the importance of keeping ties with Congressmen on both sides of the aisle, and they have endorsed Allen Boyd in Florida's 2nd. This is great news on its own, and as a bonus, the wingers at RedState are going crazy.

I realize a lot of progressives have never been excited about Boyd. Indeed, some prominent sites including FLAPolitics, where I often post diaries, publicly backed Al Lawson during the very close primary this year. I am sure Blue Dog positions such as Boyd's views on gun control played a big role.

But I always felt Boyd was the right candidate for this race. Like it or not, there are Congressional districts in this nation where liberal Democrats just can't win. It sounds cliche, but we still need a big tent. We shouldn't let Naderites or whatever the next left-wing version of the Tea Party turns out to be encourage us to throw out the Boyds with the bathwater.

Boyd isn't with us on tax cuts, but he eventually supported ObamaCare. He likes PAYGO, but also Cap-and-Trade. I wish he was stronger on responsible financial policy instead of holding so many pro-corporate positions, but he is much better than a Ben Nelson. And he is certainly better than Steve Southerland.

Polls right now show Boyd trailing the inexperienced gravedigger challenging his on behalf of the GOTea. I have trouble buying that Southerland is 16 ahead, but then I underestimated Lawson as well. Regardless, this is a tough race, and one where Democrats can't cower away because the candidate isn't with us 100 percent of the time.

The fact is, Boyd has supposedly been in trouble before, but always closed strong. He can win this race, and his support among conservative groups like the NRA could make a big difference. Politics makes strange bedfellows, and we shouldn't kick Boyd out of bed for eating some pro-gun cookies.

Primary Day - FL-02

Update: With 98 percent of the vote in, AP just called it for Boyd. The split is about 0.8 points, but that is likely insurmountable for Lawson. This is officially a Boyd-Southerland race. I must say, this was way closer than I expected it would be, and shows something about Boyd's support moving forward.

Update: This is the last race AP won't call. 90 percent of precincts are in. Lawson has whittled at Boyd all night, indicating he had better Election Day numbers than early voting numbers, but it looks like Boyd can still take it. Lawson is winning his share of counties, including Leon.

Update: Whoa, this has tightened up fast. Boyd still leads but with about 51.4 percent. But that's outside the recount margin. We'll have to see if Boyd can rally the party back together before November. This one is suddenly very, very close.

Update: The counties to report so far are all coming in for Boyd. He leads 55-45 over Lawson right now.

And Southerland has this. He is winning with 58 percent of the vote. Scholl is closest behind with 16 percent.

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Probably the most watched House race in Florida tonight, incumbent Democrat Allen Boyd gets challenged by state Sen. Al Lawson. These Panhandle Democrats are staking out the left, or at least the left as Panhandle Democrats would define it. I predict a Boyd win, but this primary has been the most serious challenge Boyd has contended against in years.

And the Republicans are salivating waiting for their own shot at the seat. The nomination tonight is likely a formality for the GOP, but presumptive nominee Steve Southerland is running against Eddie Hendry, Ron McNeil, Barbara Olscher and David Scholl.

FL-02: Boyd Getting Tested

This is the first time in ages when Allen Boyd has been involved in a real race, but I still have trouble seeing the GOP picking off this seat. I also don't see Boyd getting beaten in the Aug. 24 primary. While many had hoped state Sen. Al Lawson could get the Blue Dog tossed, Lawson simply hasn't run the best of campaigns. Making personal attacks about Boyd's divorce and getting into physical altercations with Boyd trackers have respectively made Lawson appear less like a statesman than an old crank. I am not in the Panhandle, but this race seems done.

In the general, I still have trouble believing Boyd is truly in trouble. He has far out-raised the presumptive Republican nominee Steve Southerland, and I expect that money can go a long way. Boyd has tons of name recognition, not just from 14 years in the House but another 28 in the state Legislature. And I believe this whole 'we-hate-earmarks' thing coming from the tea party megaphones will mean little when it comes to incumbents defending the spending brought home from Washington. This Tallahassee Democrat endorsement (for the primary) ticks off more than $35 million in grant dollars he won. In a district with two major state universities and the center of state government included, this should mean a great deal for voters.

Someday, Boyd will retire. And those old-school Panhandle Dixiecrats, who vote blue more out party loyalty than ideology, are slowly dying. We won't hold this seat forever. But I believe as long as Boyd is around we will continue to keep it blue.