Recruiting Against Rivera

I suspect it won't be hard to find a slough of Democrats willing to challenge Rep. David Rivera, a freshman Republican in the 25th and easily the most embarrassing result of Florida's GOP storm in the 2010 elections. I have great admiration for Joe Garcia, and hope he runs again, but apparently some other interesting folks are also getting into the mix, including state Rep. Luis Garcia.

This will be a big race, so people will have to get in early, even though the district lines won't be known until next Spring. But something interesting, it seems as if this district, created 10 years ago so Mario Diaz-Balart could get a cheap ticket to Washington, may get drawn by the GOP Legislature as a more Democrat-leaning district.

From the St. Pete Times:

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The Miami-based congressional district held by Republican Rep. David Rivera could get cut at the Collier County line, making the seat a little less Republican, said Steve Schale, a Democratic consultant.

Rivera's district, which is over-populated by nearly 111,000, borders the Fort Myers-based seat held by Rep. Connie Mack, who's mulling a run for U.S. Senate. His seat is overpopulated by about 162,000.

So it's likely, though not guaranteed, that many of those excess Collier and Lee County residents will form the backbone of a new Southwest Florida-based congressional seat, according to Schale.
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Since Rep. Connie Mack is running for re-election instead of the Senate, I expect Tallahassee will make his seat a little safer at Rivera's expense. And since Mack doesn;t really live here anyway, he probably doesn't care. (note, I live in Connie Mack's district today. I also live a couple miles from Jeff Kottkamp, who the Times suggests may benefit from redistricting, so that may change)

The question in Tallahassee from a political standpoint is how much the Republicans want to keep this seat. Truth is the seat has been trending blue, enough so that Diaz-Balart high-tailed it out last year. Now that we have one of the most outwardly corrupt freshman in the country representing the district, it seems a ripe choice for flipping in 2012. And by corrupt, I mean was instantly under federal investigation.

But the question is whether is is important to keep the district red, not Rivera. Some Republican leaders are already recuiting challengers for this seat regardless what happens with Rivera. It will be curious to see if the folks in Tallahassee try to hold this area for their team.

The advantage we have, and the one we should leverage, is that this seat is tainted by corruption regardless what it looks lie next year. We should be the housecleaning campaign, regardless who we run, and regardless who they run. If we put a strong enough slate of people out there right now, I think it is more like the GOP won't even put up a fight. They are likely picking up two new seats in Florida this year, and that should be enough for them.

And when this seat moves to our column, we can bask in the irony that a seat blatantly hand-drawn for the Republicans will be in the hands of Democrats a mere 10 years later.