DCCC Recruiting Against Rivera, Webster, West

Apparently the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is in Florida scouting out challengers for several seats. Via Post of Politics:

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Israel said he’s been in Florida all week recruiting candidates and raising money. He mentioned freshmen Reps. David Rivera, R-Miami, and Daniel Webster, R-Orlando, as other top Democratic targets in Florida.
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The Post is obviously focused on Allen West, but it's frankly a given that a solid challenger will surface against that nutjob. West 2012 is truly the right's version of Alan Grayson 2010, an ideologue who gives the base happy with dramatic rhetoric but who has the misfortune of representing a swing district. Absent a GOP wave, and the there frankly isn't any room for one after the historic Republican pickups in 2010, this seat is almost certainly heading back into blue hands.

As for the other two? That really all depends on how much the state Legislature wants to save the seats.

I suspect the folks in Tallahassee will let West twist in the wind. There is really no way to make this district safe for the red team without hurting another incumbent like Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Southeast Florida is really Democratic territory, and having someone like West in power is such a fluke, nobody who looks at the numbers for even a second will view this as anything but a lost cause.

Webster, though, will probably see that district redrafted in his favor. Recall, it wasn't so long ago Webster was in the Legislature, where he was known as one of the most collegial and stand-up guys in the chamber. I know, Alan Grayson will remind us Webster is also a right-wing nut, but that strategy wasn't the right one in 2010, and it won't be in 2012 either. My guess is Webster's district will have a little less Orlando, a little more Lake County, and become a safe seat from now until whenever Webster is ready to retire.

I don't like it. But that's the way it is.

As for Rivera, I hope someone in Tallahassee does some real soul-searching on this one. The truth is this district is almost impossible to make safe for one party or the other. It was created in 2000 so Mario Diaz-Balart could go to Congress, but Diaz-Balart now represents a different district. Rivera, on the other hand, is on the road to being the biggest embarrassment to his party in the entire country. Already under investigation, and capable of showing disrespect for all kinds of laws, the man is truly a pox on the political profession.

But what to do about it? The Tally crew can try and make it impossible for a Democrat to win there, but the district is largely Hispanic, and the further we get from the Kennedy-Castro conflicts, the less Republican the South Florida Hispanic population gets. That is why a decade after the last redistricting process, MDB fled his own hand-drawn district.

In order to hold this seat, the Republicans really need something the seat has never had, a really strong incumbent. Diaz-Balart grew less popular every year, and if not for the GOP wave last cycle, Rivera's scandals would probably have sunk his run. The GOP needs to recruit a new candidate, but that will be hard. It could be easier if the new lines make for a safer general election, but I am guessing Joe Garcia is getting ready to throw all his power at this one, and that he is unlikely to see a primary challenge.

I'm curious why Steve Israel isn't out recruiting against Sandy Adams or Steve Southerland, or for that matter any veteran Republicans. If we want to make a difference in turning Florida blue for anything but the presidential election, we really need to compete statewide.

But perhaps Israel is aware that everything is subject to redistricting. Until new lines are drawn in the sand, it is difficult to speculate just what seats are vulnerable to a flip. So stay tuned.