FL-12: Edwards-Ross

Update 3: Well, looks like it's over. Another one for the GOP, but it looks like Ross will be held under 50 percent. Not that there is any prize for holding him below 50, but still.

Update 2: So here is the interesting thing. Hillsborough is where I think Edwards best shot at winning this race lays, and that county isn't reporting numbers to the Division yet. Regardless how this turns out, Edwards was obviously doing better than Grayson or Kosmas because the race is still within 5 points right now.

Update: Edwards is down by 5, and nobody has hit that 50-percent mark. Maybe the tea party candidate is going to keep this close tonight. We'll see.

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This is the one House race in Florida where I am more optimistic now than I was a few months ago. Elections Supervisor Lori Edwards has quietly run a strong campaign, and running in an area where a lot of Alex Sink support is likely to turn out could give Edwards some coattails.

The pundits still suspect Dennis Ross to coast into office, but I think the shadow enthusiasm of the left regarding this race may bring good news. Plus a Tea Party candidate complicates things here, though maybe less then the Dems would hope.

I am not saying we should build ourselves up for victory. A win here would still be a surprise. But boy, would a surprise like this be nice tonight. I'll be watching to see what happens.

Can Edwards Win It? Maybe

I sure hope Steve Singiser at Daily Kos is right about the 12th, but I have seen no signs. Right now, I feel like Lori Edwards is a decent candidate who hasn't made much of a splash and isn't raising the type of money to beat Dennis Ross for this seat. This is not a great environment for an under-funded Democrat to hold a seat held by the GOP for years.

But for the sake of hope, I will entertain. Here is Steve's argument:

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Florida's 12th district, on paper, should be a hold for the GOP. Their candidate, former state legislator Dennis Ross, has outraised Democratic challenger Lori Edwards by a two-to-one margin in this R+6 district. But two things make this one interesting. For one thing, the district might be shifting noticeably. Florida moved a total of eight points in the Democratic direction between 2004 and 2008. But the 12th district's shift was even sharper, from a 16-point GOP margin in 2004 to just a single point in 2008. Furthermore, there is a wild card in the race: Polk County Commissioner and Tea Party candidate Randy Wilkinson. A poll taken over the summer by Dem pollsters Greenberg Quinlan Rosner gave Edwards a shocking three-point edge, elevated by Wilkinson's ability to notch 20% of the vote. Given his lack of funds, that might be a bit optimistic, but if not...watch out for this one.

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My biggest problem with that poll, and why I ignored it at the time, is that I don't really think teabaggers as a whole are interested in a third-party. They are really just Republican partisans with a new label.

But there could be a few other things working in Edwards' favor. Most notably, tight races for U.S. Senator and Governor will bolster Democratic turnout all through the I-4 corridor. While Polk County is relatively conservative, it sits in two big TV markets considered for eons to be the swing district where state elections are decided. Alex Sink, the Democrat running for governor, hails from Thonotosassa, a Hillsborough County community just over the Polk County line, and will do whatever she can to drive up turnout in the greater Tampa Bay area. Kendrick Meek's landmark candidacy, whether successful or not, should help boost black turnout statewide.

As Supervisor of Elections in Polk, she has name recognition with a big chunk of voters. And I have yet to here any real negatives cast at her, if only because the GOP isn't taking her as a serious threat right now. So good luck, Lori. I'd sure enjoy an upset this November, and do believe that if she can win this seat, she can hold it two years from now and for many cycles to come.

FL-12 and FL-25: Huge Opportunity

The NRCC target list provides bad news for a lot of incumbents, even ones who are prepared to take the extra licks, but it also reveals something about the NRCC's strategy this year which provides great news to Democrats seeking open seats. Florida has two real chances at pickups this year: the 12th and the 25th.

I have been saying good things about our odds in the 25th for months. Joe Garcia is an outstanding candidate who already sent Mario Diaz-Balart fleeing from his own hand-drawn district, and he has been raising a solid amount of cash. Additionally, Republican David Rivera has not been a very good candidate thus far. Yes, Rivera has raised more than a million, but shaky positions on oil and immigration have hurt him, as has a high-profile foreclosure scandal involving Senate hopeful Marco Rubio.

As for the 12th, I was ready to write off this race a month ago but news the NRCC is focusing on incumbents could help Democrat Lori Edwards out a great deal. Southern Political Report was also more impressed than I was with Edwards' fundraising, tough they still peg this as a Republican-leaning district. Adam Putnam's pursuit of higher office does create an opportunity here in a district that John McCain carried by a point. It still may take a slip-up by Republican Dennis Ross, a former state representative, to make this winnable, but things look better today than they did a week ago.

Is the NRCC over-confident in thinking these seats won't be competitive? It may be they have polling we don't, but then the strategy to leave every open seat in the nation alone hints at a confidence in the GOP that the bulk on incumbent-free races will go their way. That could be true, but such confidence would make it all the more fun to surprise them in November.

FL-12: Open Seat (R)

FL-12: Open Seat (R)

Update: The original version of this post said Dennis Ross was a sitting state representative. He left office in 2008.

Hunger for some old-fashioned Democratic missed opportunities? Look to the 12th, where retiring Congressman Adam Putnam offered the left a chance for a pickup but where things just don't seem to be going right unless you are on the right. Polk County elections supervisor Lori Edwards, the likely Democratic nominee, has just over $103,000 cash on hand in a district that crosses multiple television markets. Former State Rep. Dennis Ross, now the most likely Republican candidate, has $440,000.

Meet Dennis Ross, future distinguished gentleman from Florida.

It looked at one point like he might have a tea party challenge by John Lindsay, but Lindsay's money has dried up, and he barely has $1,200 in the bank now. Meanwhile, Edwards must deal with a challenge by Douglas David Tutor, who has more than $25,000 to blow. Will that help upset Edwards? Of course not, but he could damage her a bit leading into the general. Normally, I don't mind the publicity generated by a primary, but Ross has enjoyed years of free media as a lawmaker and can now build up his positives through largely biographical marketing. Expect him to run away with this and keep the seat in Republican hands.