Grayson Playing It Wise For Now

So far, Alan Grayson seems to be plotting his return to Congress using something he has sometimes lacked: sense. I didn't expect it first, what with him filing for a district that doesn't actually exist. But he seems to be acting in way that is appropriately shrewd and politically realistic.

An Orlando Sentinel shows the flexibility which Grayson shows in evaluating the prospects for his own future, but more importantly to me, it shows a calm assessment of where his chances are most promising. I feared last November that Grayson would try to win his own district back, knowing full-well that Dan Webster would run in much more friendly territory in 2012.

Why? Webster is extraordinarily popular in Tallahassee. He was buoyed by a GOP wave last year which allowed him to win a majority Democrat seat, but enough rich Republican territory lies on the edges on that district that it seems inevitable a Republican legislature will make this a right-leaning district this year. All reports also point to the Republicans trying to stem off criticisms of partisanship by making sure one of the new Congressional district in Florida ends up as a Democratic seat. (Mark that as one success for the Fair Districts amendment)

The real question now is whether Grayson can win in this new district. It will be a majority-minority seat, but it will be curious to see the racial breakdowns when all is said and done. If blacks outnumber Hispanics, for example, it may end up Gary Siplin's race to lose, despite his own baggage. But if this is an Hispanic seat, it could be up for grabs for a Grayson comeback. So far, I have not heard of a field-clearing Hispanic candidate from this area, but feel free to inform me of one.

Of course, Grayson will likely see the same flood of national dollars from activists across the country that made for a huge war chest in 2012, even if that war chest proved ineffective against a GOP tidal wave in the state of Florida. Certainly, I would be happy to see him back on the floor of the U.S. House, and would feel less anxiety if he held a safe Democratic seat.

If things don't work out with redistricting, though, I hope Grayson stays realistic and sits this cycle out. He is an effective progressive voice that actually needs the megaphone of public office less than most anyone else. I expect 2012 to be a much, much friendlier year for Democrats than the last painful cycle, but especially with redistricting controlled by the other side, I don't expect a Dem wave in Florida.

I would hate to see Grayson branded a three-time loser. For now, I think he is playing things safe. As much as I enjoy his past bombast, safe is the right thing for him to do.