Now, to be sure, the demographics of particular districts will result in different outcomes. Despite a GOP wave, Corrine Brown could coast to re-election this year. And we will likely never get a shot at someone like Jeff Miller. But when it comes to swing districts and toss-up races, it seems now that nothing is more important than the national narrative.
The GOP says Alan Grayson was too liberal for his district, but being conservative didn't help Allen Boyd. And can anyone be more middle-of-the road than Suzanne Kosmas? Does anyone represent the demographic make-up of their district as well as Ron Klein?
No, the other thing Florida's ousted congressmen have in common this year is that they were Democrats in a year when being a Democrat wasn't cool.
Our side benefits from this too. Nobody thought Ric Keller was in serious trouble until weeks before the 2008 election where Grayson took that district. We talk about the Jack Abramoff scandal playing a role in Kosmas' '08 victory, but really, she benefitted most from a national anti-Bush environment and the insurgent Obama candidacy.
Today, Florida has 10 Democratic congressman in a 25-member House delegation. In January, that will drop to 6. Yet, this is clearly still a swing state. The only big difference will be that these four congressman were on the wrong side of a wave.
No comments:
Post a Comment