The Astronaut v. The Juggernaut

A new PPP poll is amping up the speculation on whether Jeb Bush runs for Senate in 2012. The poll shows that a whopping 72 percent of Republican voters in Florida would vote for Jeb as the nominee should he run. This comes on the heels of another PPP poll which shows Bush leading incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson 49-44 in a general election matchup.

Of course, it is utterly surprising that Bush should lead the pack. Not only is he consistently popular among conservative Republicans, many of whom long for pre-Crist leadership in Tallahassee, but he is by far the best candidate. The next most popular candidate in the new PPP poll is Bill McCollum, who lost to Bill Nelson in 2000, and more recently to Rick Scott for governor this year.

But the big question remains the same as it ever was. Does Jeb want the job? I have said here before that I don't believe Jeb will be that interested in a job in the Senate. Frankly, I think that still holds true.

Why? Because Jeb Bush, in his his heart of hearts, is an executive. He has little patience for the legislative process, and as governor tended to leave that sort of thing to his lackeys in the state House and Senate. He loves politics, but has a heavy distaste for legislating. In his role today, he gets to engage whenever he wishes in king-making and politicking. Since Marco Rubio, his favored Senate candidate, emerged a star of this election cycle, he maintains a tremendous amount of credibility within conservative ranks despite squishy feelings on immigration and the inescapable problem of having the last name Bush.

What could change his mind? If Jeb Bush is truly the only candidate in the field who can compete with Nelson, that could mean something, but a poll two years out frankly does little to indicate that. All of the politicians currently considering a run will spend the next year raising their profile, and given the right mix of political environment and luck, could beat Nelson. It would be easier for Jeb, no question, but it is not impossible for anyone.

But the flip side is that Jeb could also lose to Nelson. The earlier PPP poll shows Nelson in pretty good shape, able to beat anyone in the field besides Jeb, and only pegged him a few points below the former governor. Add in the mix an incumbent president who will probably spend a lot of time in Florida that year with Nelson by his side, and it becomes hard to underestimate the incumbent. The great backstory for Nelson, a seasoned politician who has been to space and Tallahassee alike, along with a Bob Graham-like record for pleasing everybody some of the time, makes Nelson as good a candidate as ever as he embarks on a third Senate campaign.

The area where Bill Nelson is hurting the most is actually with his Democratic base, and there is already a lot of chatter online about a primary challenge from the left. Should Nelson get booted in the primary, it could change everything, but right now there is no reason to think he would lose such a fight. And having a hard-lefty with less name recognition on the ballot is about the only thing that would make a cakewalk for Jeb.

None of this means Jeb won't run, of course. He would raise more money than anyone else, including the incumbent. I suspect if speculation reaches too high a volume, he will make his intentions known early if only to let the rest of the GOP field campaign in earnest.

But keep in mind that in 2010, Jeb would have run the boards. There would have been no Charlie Crist-Marco Rubio drama because neither would have stayed in that race. Kendrick Meek might still be in the House, knowing a run against Jeb was impossible for a South Florida liberal. That race was really Jeb's to lose, and instead he decided to sit it out.

I seriously doubt that he would take on as big a fight as ousting Bill Nelson to take a job he probably doesn't really want when he passed on a much easier fight for the same trophy just two years prior. This is fun speculating, but until Jeb says different, there is no reason to believe he will enter this race.