Before Kendrick Meek's body was even cold, we apparently are ready fro a new election cycle. Quinnipiac has done its first big peek at the electoral prospects for 2012.
The news? A mixed bag no matter who you are rooting for in two years. Sen. Bill Nelson has a 45 percent approval rating, better than newbie Marco Rubio but a good bit under the 50-percent thresholds where most incumbents want to be facing re-election.
Barack Obama isn't doing so hot either, with 48 percent of voters saying he doesn't deserve to win re-election and 45 percent saying he does. Against a generic Republican (and generics always do better than actual, named candidates), the president loses Florida by two percent.
On Kos today, Steve Singiser suggested this might be good news for the president. But I say good news is winning and bad news is losing. Sure, the president isn't at his zenith in popularity, and the state just elected a treasure trove of Republicans this cycle, whereas next cycle almost has to go better. But then again, it might not, and how well it goes depends almost completely on Barack Obama.
Supporters of the Democratic Party learned a long time ago that the state party can't deliver big results. It focuses too much on headline races, can't manage the narrative and never puts together a big enough bench. But at least we have two big hitters. Nelson can offer his own coattails in addition to the ones provided by the president, and the two can help one another.
I think Obama will be re-elected, but it won't be a cakewalk. At least not here. I am heartened by the fact Florida has not voted against a president seeking re-election since 1980, and hasn't voted out a senator since 1986.
This isn't in the bag for anyone, though.
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