What Happens to Charlie?

Of all the politicians who lost elections this month, perhaps none has solicited as much interest about their future as Charlie Crist. The reason, I suspect, is that despite coming in second place as an independent, it is hard to see what sort of future exists for the tan man.

The Times reports that short-term Charlie likely has a job with Morgan and Morgan, likely true based on the close ties between John Morgan and the outgoing governor. But of course the question isn't whether Crist can find work but whether he can ever be elected again. And frankly, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

First, he has to decide whether to run as a Republican or Democrat. Based on the election environment this year, he might have a better time on the blue team, but then, why would he make the switch? The only statewide office up for grabs is Sen. Bill Nelson's seat. But could Crist really challenge Nelson in the primary? I wonder then who would see Crist as a better Democrat, and who would see Nelson as a solid progressive.

No. If anything, Crist would run for Senate as a Republican, just as he did in 1998 and as he started to do this year before the tea party scared him out. The question at that point would be whether Republicans had tired of extremists running the party. Frankly, I don't see that happening as long as Barack Obama is still in the White House.

I have heard some talk about whether Crist could get an appointment from Obama, but then the question would be why. Already, the White House was catching flak this year for apparently sending Bill Clinton to convince a black Democrat to drop out of the Senate race to make room for sorry Charlie. So now that Crist has such a self-defeating and unsuccessful campaign that fracture the left and made a hero out of Marco Rubio, why continue to embrace the governor? I don't see that happening either.

If Crist is ever to have a second life in politics, he will have to build it from scratch. That means going back to local politics or returning to the Florida Legislature. As unlikely as that seems right now, I don't see any more viable path. As for a statewide ballot, it will be at least 2014 before Crist even has a good opportunity to run again. Who knows what the political environment will look like at that point.

Then again, my guess is that Charlie will try to adapt to that environment. His political instincts at one point were enough to scare Alex Sink from challenging his for governor. I don't know that so many would be intimidated today, but then, one misstep isn't reason to write him off. Crist is a political Madonna, capable of developing a new image any time the market changes. Expect him to do it again.