This poll pegs Scott at 44 and McCollum at 31. If true, that is devastating for McCollum, who a month ago was the presumptive favorite for governor. This poll simply shows a blind and unwarranted desperation on the part of Republicans that simply makes no sense at all. Less than a month ago, a media poll showed Scott making inroads, but still had McCollum at 38 over Scott's 24. Can a multi-million-dollar television blitz make that much difference? Can a flood of negative press truly matter so little?
I am certain the George Rekers controversy hurt McCollum in the eyes of many voters. But the real surprise here isn't a loss of support for McCollum, but a surge in support for Scott. Judging from this poll, Scott has been able to tap the same anti-establishment sentiment among Florida conservatives which drove Charlie Crist out of the primary. But there are major differences between Scott and Rubio.
Scott has never held elected office, whereas Rubio served in the Florida House and built up statewide name recognition during a two-year term as Speaker. Rubio is the darling of ideological conservatives, but spent months upon months culminating support through meetings with local Republican groups throughout the state, while Scott has just blitzed the airwaves with some nasty words on immigration, and more recently, a response to HCA criticism that is best described as a remorseless confession.
My wife and I were discussing the recent ad just the other night. Both of us agreed it was entertaining, but galling at the same time. In it, Scott says his opponents keep bringing up that $1.7 billion fine for fraud. "Unfortunately, that's true," he says, before stating boldly that it wasn't his fault, then saying he learns from his mistakes, and never mentioning he pretty much lost his job over the whole affair.
Is this how you win support in a Republican primary today?
Compare this to McCollum, who has not handled the Rekers issue well but has been a conservative's conservative since the Mesozoic era. He hand-delivered impeachment papers to the Senate, brought a lawsuit against ObamaCare on behalf of all of Florida, and was a hawk on foreign policy long before 9-11. He is certainly no Charlie Crist, and has done nothing that should directly piss off conservatives. Even with Rekers, his sin was applying too much zeal in castigating the gay rights movement. Many of these things could be liabilities in a general election, but usually wouldn't move the needle in a primary, and certainly should not push voters to Scott, who has promised to be more right-wing than McCollum.
The same poll also shows Jeff Greene closing in on Kendrick Meek, with Meek holding a narrow 29-27 lead. All the same issues apply to that race. Greene hasn't gotten a smidge of good press. In the past week we learned he donated $5,000 to Republican Meg Whitman's gubernatorial campaign in California. We already knew he was a California carpet-bagger, and that he never registered as a Democrat until 2008. His last run for Congress was as a Republican, back when he was still in California. But he has a lot of money and is hitting the airwaves hard. I don't even think he appears charismatic in these ads. If anything, his appeal to Democratic primary voters makes far less sense to me than Scott's appeal to Republican voters. But it certainly shows the time is now for Meek to get serious about this Senate campaign.
And it also shows the power of television, which I truly figured would diminish this election cycle. Scott, of course, has a major Internet presence as well, but it has been broadcast advertisements that put his name in front of voters more than anything else. The same applies to Greene. Without money, these guys would be nothing. They are not driven upstarts who spent a year or more building a reputation with party regulars. And that may mean this poll doesn't matter as much as one would think. How many respondents are likely voters? I certainly hope this is no indication of how the races will turn out Aug. 24.
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