Please Bud, Run as a Democrat

Time is running out for Bud Chiles to do the right thing and run for governor as a Democrat. I would like to make an impassioned plea for this FLorida native son to stop his hopeless independent bid. I am not asking him not to run, just to run the appropriate campaign within the system that exists in Florida today. He has until noon Friday to do the right thing, a move that will benefit both his own campaign and the future of the state.

Why would this be wise for Bud Chiles? It seems Chiles was scared out of the Democratic primary by Alex Sink's war chest. But running to the general is the wrong approach to that obstacle. In a primary, Sink will be guarded about how much to spend, as there must be money left to challenge the Republican machine in the general election. The same does not hold true if Chiles rushes straight to the general election ballot. There will be no runoff, and every candidate in this race will spend the last dollar they have before Nov. 2. Sink's huge bank account is more dangerous in a general election fight. And of course, the GOP will also spend what they have on a November showdown. Chiles is worried about funding a competitive August campaign, but has no shot in November. Plus, if he can't beat Sink a two-person primary, why will it be easier to beat Sink and the Republican nominee in a three-person campaign?

Plus, Chiles would be more competitive in the Democratic primary. A recent Quinnipiac poll shows Chiles does not hold the same sway with independent voters as higher-profile nonpartisan candidates. In a match-up between Chiles, Sink and Republican Bill McCollum, Chiles gets only 24 percent of the independent vote, more than Sink but less than McCollum. If Rick Scott is the GOP nominee, Chiles actually does worse with independent voters, grabbing only 20 percent. Compare these numbers to the Senate race, where the same poll shows Charlie Crist supported by 51 percent of independent voters. If Chiles is expecting an uprising among Florida independents because of this year's climate, this data shows he won't enjoy any fruit from it.

And of course, the poll shows Chiles coming in third place no matter what. He gets 19 percent of the vote in a Sink-McCollum-Chiles battle, and 13 percent in a Sink-Scott-Chiles race. After coming in third, what will Chiles have wrought? He is running a campaign built primarily on a message of boosting education. But his entry into the race will most likely keep the Republicans in the governor's mansion, and this state GOP is as hostile toward public education as any in America.

If Chiles believes he is a superior candidate to Sink, he should take her on in a one-on-one race for the Democratic nomination. He probably has a better chance at beating her there. That name he is counting on to win votes? That will matter more with the party regulars who vote in August. Florida is a state where a significant number of general election voters have moved here in the past 10 years, and therefore have no memory of Lawton Chiles' time as governor or senator. That isn't so true of Democratic primary voters. And it would take less money to win in August, with mailers going onto to registered Democrats, and probably only the supervoters within that set. Winning a primary means winning the hearts and minds of educated voters, and depends upon a solid GOTV effort more than a glossy television campaign. The Walkin' Lawton style, which the younger Chiles seems bent upon duplicating, will have far more effect with the smaller voter pool.

And should he beat Sink, he will have a ready army who would have already voted for him once. He will have the attention of the Democratic establishment, who would very much like to hold the Governor's Mansion for the first time in a dozen years. Money would flow in nationwide, replenishing the funds spent in a primary campaign. And he has the chance to win over Sink supporters by the general, the same way Barack Obama won back Hillary voters before November 2008. Indeed, if there were a competitive Democratic primary right now, voters would hear about someone in this race besides Scott and McCollum, who are flooding the airwaves now because of the impending Republican primary.

Understand, Florida is a closed primary state. The system works on the assumption that the two-party system is the best approach to elections. There are problems with that approach, but open primaries have problems as well. Ask South Carolina. Regardless, our system punishes those candidates that refuse to work within the confines of the parties. Perhaps a candidate like Charlie Crist, who has been the Republican nominee in a statewide election four times, can overcome that, but only after he has risen to the highest executive office in the state playing within the party system. Even for Crist, this election is a huge experiment and a venture where he runs a high risk of failure. For Chiles, this race is unwinnable without the nomination of a major party.

And if Chiles lost the Democratic primary, so what? He is going to lose anyway. If Sink loses in the general, Chiles comes back in four years and says 'I told you so' as he kicks off a new campaign. He would get more time to build his own name up in the meanwhile. If Sink wins, he can run for other offices, and build up his own reputation until the chance for a gubernatorial bid rises again.

But if he loses as an independent and siphons enough votes from Sink to make Ralph Nader blush, then we get Gov. Bill McCollum, or worse, Gov. Rick Scott. And we will all hate his guts.