Obsessing Over a Poll Which Should be Ignored

Why cannot I not resist this? A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Crist slipping in the general election, and losing to Marco Rubio if Kendrick Meek is the Democratic nominee. It also shows him winning if Jeff Greene is the Democratic nominee, but also shows Jeff Greene losing the primary. The funny thing about this poll is that it can be spun as good news for every single candidate in this race, and indeed I cannot help but see the good news for my favored candidate.

But let me remind, both for myself and any readers who stumble on this site, this poll doesn't matter. A general election mock-up in a race where the Democratic nominee is uncertain means nothing. To glean meaningful results in mid-August is mostly kindly described as foolhardy.

Yet, here I go. My reasons why this is good news for Kendrick Meek:

The poll shows the congressman leading vanity billionaire candidate Jeff Greene by a whopping 40-26. Since that race is a week away, this actually does matter. If this poll is to be believed, and there have been polls with different results, then voters have been educating themselves, and Meek's message is winning out despite the steady flow of nasty mailers from the Greene campaign. If nothing else in this poll is to be taken with much regard, at least this provides good news for Meek in the Aug. 24 election.

Also, it shows Meek is gaining traction in the general. While more Democrats support Crist than Meek right now by a margin of about 45-36, and about 11 percent of Democrats remain uncommitted in Meek is the nominee. That leaves great opportunity for swaying the fence-sitters and poaching Crist support. With Meek on the November ballot, it shows the race at 38 for Rubio, 33 for Crist, 18 for Meek and 11 undecided. While that is scary stuff, support is not obviously too firm. Should Crist lure Republicans into his fold while Meek wins over the undecideds, he can do this. As I has stressed repeatedly, you only need 40 percent of the vote, maybe less, to win the seat this year.

But now I sober up. If I were inclined, I would read this poll other ways as well.

For Rubio: You only need 40 percent to win this, and with Meek on the ballot, Rubio is almost there already. Assuming the support for the major candidates is firm, Crist would need to take the significant bulk of undecideds to win, and this is already out of reach for Meek. A Greene primary win would complicate things, but this poll makes that seem unlikely. Plus, his support is secure. He hold 38 percent whether the race is against Crist and Meek, or against Crist and Green. This shows him losing with Greene on the ballot in a 39-38-12 battle, but that means he and Crist are statistically tied, and that Crist's supporters are fickle.

For Greene: Meek has proven repeatedly he does not have a loyal groundswell of support among Democrats, and millions worth of mailers are surely going to chip in to Meek's lead in coming days. Plus, this will motivate those pro-Crist Democrats who seem intent on spoiling their own party primary. Should he get on the November ballot, Greene has more in his couch cushions that Rubio or Crist can hope to raise, and every poll has shown support for all established candidates seems very soft.

For Crist: OK, this is a stretch, but this is still showing a Crist victory with Greene on the ticket, still a real possibility. And Rubio is still appealing almost exclusively with base Republican voters. Crist still kills Meek in every poll, even among Democrats, and as election day creeps closer, more Democrats will jump ship and back Crist just to stop Rubio unless the Democratic nominee can turn this puppy around.

My head is spinning. So please, please ignore everything I have said. I will try and forget it as well, and we can just pretend this post never happened.