Crist getting half of Democrats

Some really interesting numbers in a new Mason-Dixon poll show exactly how the Senate race breaks down and just how badly the media battle of the last few months has aided Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio while hurting Meek. This shows why I feel Crist has theedge in this race and think Meek probably has too much work to do.

Unsurprisingly to most, the poll has Crist leading with Crist at 38 percent. It pegs Rubio at 33 and Meek at a disgraceful 19. That means 71 percent of voters favor a registered Republican in this race (Crist is still a registered Republican according to the Division of Elections, folks). The secret, of course, is name recognition. Crist is essentially at 100 percent, an amazing feat even for a sitting governor, accomplished by running in all but two of the statewide elections in the last 12 years.

Rubio and Meek, however, have never run statewide. But Rubio is at about 90 percent recognition right now. Serving as state Speaker got Rubio press statewide, but that has typically meant more to reporters than the public at large. Rather, the tea party enthusiasm and high-energy primary probably did a lot more for the guy.

Compare the figures to Meek, who remains an unknown name to 40 percent of Florida voters. That means only one in five voters plat to vote for Meek, and two in five believe he is an adjective that means quiet and shy. Of note, I was talking about this race with my mother today and she believed Kendrick Meek was a woman. And how many of you are Googling now just to check? Well he's a guy. And he hasn't ever dated Hugh Hefner. I think. But who knows. Not voters.

Now the flip side of this poll for Charlie is that he can probably only go down from here. Nineteen percent of black supporters favor Crist, but as Meek is the first serious African American candidate to seek a Senate seat in Florida, I suspect that share goes down as more voters learn he is in this race. Rubio already pulls in 64 percent of Hispanic voters, and while that may go up as well, he will likely pull from both Crist and Meek.

But of note, Crist beats Meek even in liberal Southeast Florida, where the Congressman has served for most of the decade and where his greatest name recognition of his ideological base reside. There, the governor gets 37 percent of the vote, barely less than his share statewide to Meek's 31. In comparison Rubio clocks both candidates in the most conservative portions of Florida, Southwest and the Panhandle.

Also of note, this poll had Democrats outnumbering Republicans 43 percent to 38 percent. That is probably based on the 2008 election, when Obama fever attracted a high number of Dems to the polls, and I suspect Republican voters just might outnumber Democrats who vote this November. But even with this poll's tilt to the left, a moderate Republican wins, a conservative Republican places second and a Democrat withers in the teens.

And that is the situation of the Senate race in a purple state in 2010. Wow.