Any pollster worth his salt knows you don't get good results randomly calling anybody with a listed phone number. Getting some hick in the woods who doesn't know where his polling place is and asking him who he supports in the Senate race will do no good. Pollsters screen voters in a ton of different ways, and the first step is usually calling people who have regularly voted before.
This election year, though, each of the three major candidates offers something to groups who have not always participated in elections before. The most notable political movement this year, of course, has been the Tea Party, and Rubio was among the first revolutionaries to benefit from the crazy zeitgeist. But if I may rub against conventional wisdom a little bit, I am not sure how many of those energized by the right-wing conservatism are truly new voters. These activists, while not folks I would characterize as smart, are informed on policy.
As demonstrated by races in Utah and Delaware, the movement has been about conservative purists taking back the party platform using the machinations of politics. For example, less than 60,000 people voted in the Delaware primary Tuesday, only about 32 percent of the Republicans in the state. Like Florida, the state has a closed primary, or else the defeat of Mike Castle surely would not have taken place. In Utah, the voting pool that ousted incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett was even more selective. Only 3,452 delegates were present at the state party convention where Bennett garnered just 26 percent and was booted from even appearing on a broad ballot.
All this is to say the Tea Party isn't made up of previously uninvolved voters. It is made up of reliable, super-involved voters. Crist would have seen the same fate as Castle had he stayed in Florida's Republican primary, but he saw the chances were better in November, and he is still right.
Crist has appeal to moderate, independent voters who normally only come out for presidential elections. And he is the rare independent who has plenty of money in the bank to reach out. While many Republican politicians yanked their support from the governor as soon as he went Indy, Crist's financial supporters have stayed true. That means he can go on TV, and can send out mailers. He can reach a target audience of people who don't like the partisanship of Washington politics and normally sit mid-terms out. As it happens, those are exactly the people he needs to motivate and get to the polls.
And they are people who don't show up for pollsters. They often get screened out, if they get called at all. Polls predicted candidates like ex-Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura would lose in 1998 for precisely this reason. Ventura won by getting people voting who had never voted.
And as for my favorite candidate? I would note Meek has been surging in the polls since he won the primary. Once polling in the low teens, he is now firmly back in the 20s, and going up. Why? For one, Democrats realize he can win. He trounced the over-monied Jeff Greene in August, and he finally got his mug on television sets. Plus, he also has an appeal to a big voting group - blacks - who notoriously are under-reprented in most elections.
Barack Obama attracted more than 65 percent of black voters to come out in 2008, surprising no one. That was about 5 percent more than came out for John Kerry, who was attempting to become out whitest president ever. Now, nobody thinks Meek has the political energy of Obama, but he can ride the coattails well. Registration increased among blacks in 2008 as well, so more voters are involved in a process to which they once felt disenfranchised. Once Meek is coating the airwaves with advertising, he will inspire voters to come out in hopes of electing Florida's first black Senator since reconstruction.
So the polls favor Rubio today, but the pollsters likely ignore the greatest sources of political opportunity which exist for Meek or Crist. And as noted before, this has been the most dynamic election year ever in Florida. I wouldn't underestimate the possibility of any outcome on Election Day.
The one person I do not want to see win is Charlie Crist. While I will likely vote for Rubio, I would much rather see a legitimate Democrat win than an opportunistic slimeball like Crist. I had to hold my nose when voting for him for governor and found myself wishing that I'd simply left the ballot blank rather than vote for a RINO
ReplyDeletehope you are right...either Christ or Meeks would be better than Rubio who already panders to the Bushies and the Tea Partiers! I used to be opposed to Christ, but had did stand up to the extremists and left his party. I realize it was self-serving, but anyone who does not think that EVERY poolitician is self-serving is very naive.
ReplyDeleteYou really don't hope I am right - you are okay with either a Democrat or a phony winning. I want a real candidate to win , not one who is a complete fraud like Crist
ReplyDeleteI have no problem with the Tea Partiers they are a legitimate grassroots movement - I don't necessarily agree with them on everything (or even most things) , but they are no more out there than many of the wingnuts posting on the Daily Kos
I consider myself a hypocritical Libertarian- one who takes a gov't pay check even tho I want less gov't. Still, I would hate to be called a Tea Party type because I consider them self serving, reactionary and racist. As Huffington said last night,both major parties have been screwing the middle class for 30 years, but we need a new movement that addresses wrongs rather than saying give me social security, bring back 1950 and stop taking all my money?
ReplyDeleteAny suggestions for a new party platform?
Yes the left media has been successful in painting the Tea Party types as "Self-Serving, Reactionary and Racist" but I know quite a few Tea Partiers who do not fit that stereotype at all and I also know some rather left leaning Democrats who are all three - bigotry does not seem to correlate strongly to political leanings - those on the left usually simply disguise their bigotry better, but it knows no political bounds. As best as I've been able to determine, people are simply people and attempts to stereotype simply cloud legitimate issues for receiving honest discussion
ReplyDeletePersonally, I don't think Republicans by nature are bigoted or racist. But people who are bigoted and racist are more likely to be Republican.
ReplyDeleteThat's the problem. It's not a new problem, and not one that has always afflicted Republicans. For perhaps most of the last century, the Democrats, particularly in the South, were the party that embraced racists. Indeed, the Strom Thurmonds of their day were more likely to react positively to bigots than Republicans who actually hold office are today. As such, many older voters are still Dixiecrats, and probably are some of the ones you speak of.
But in the modern political world, it is the GOP which has refused to push bigotry out of the fold. Particularly since Obama's election, many extremists are saying things in public which once were only safe in private conversation, and which was risky even then.