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Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Is Meek even running?

How is Kendrick Meek cratering this badly? I am beginning to wonder whether he has any strategy, or even an ambition to win. Nearly a month after Charlie Crist bolted the GOP primary, I expected Kendrick Meek at least to have put up a fight. And since I want a candidate who will caucus with Dems when he gets to Washington, I hoped Meek could upset my prediction of a Crist win.

Right now, that doesn't seem likely. A new Times/Herald poll shows Crist winning the race, though not by much. He is statistically tied with Marco Rubio, with a 30-27 edge. Considering more than a quarter of voters are undecided or support also-rans sure to be eliminated by November, this means the race is far from won for the Golden Governor.

But Meek is polling at a pathetic 15 percent. Worse, Crist leads Meek 38-33 AMONG DEMOCRATS. Maurice Ferre is pulling in 10 percent of Dems, for Christ's sake. The way things are trending, it wouldn't surprise me if Crist has a majority of Democrats on his side in a month. If that happens, I don't know if there is any return for Meek's flailing bid for the Senate.

The real problem for Meek is the growing sense among pragmatic and moderate Democrats that he can't win this race under any circumstance. The teabagger presence around Marco Rubio frightens many voters, and the feeling he must be stopped at all cost is gripping otherwise sensible people. Additionally, the Florida Democratic Party has been in such shambles for most of the past decade, many don't trust the organization to put up a strong enough fight.

Of course, I might say Crist can't be trusted. I do not believe he will caucus with the Democrats, or he would have just switched parties when many on the left were wooing. And I would note this man changes political positions like an oily tide. But it doesn't matter for me to say those things. The Meek campaign has yet to do a sufficient job of stopping Crist's momentum. He isn't on TV and is spending more time watching NASCAR than igniting his base.

The teachers' union this weekend split its endorsement between Meek and Crist. This was likely fueled by Crist's veto of the teacher pay bill, but it was also a sign that many traditional Democratic support groups are hedging bets. Meek was the force behind the class-size amendment and has relied more heavily on educators than any other political force, yet he can't even get the full-throated support of the FEA.

Ultimately, it appears Marco Rubio has not been substantially hurt by the news events in recent weeks, but Meek has. That was during the spread of an oil spill when Meek is the only candidate who consistently opposed drilling. That was as polls turned around on Health Care and as Crist, Rubio and Republicans backed a lawsuit to stop improvements in care.

Considering nobody even knew who Meek was in March, it is amazing he has found a way to go down further in the polls. Something needs to change very quickly, or Democrats effectively won't have a man in this race at all.

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