Chiles Supports Sink, McCollum Stays Mum

It is official. Bud Chiles has ended his independent run. But I think the more surprising thing is that he has endorsed Alex Sink. From his online sign-off:

---

"This decision to step aside comes with many emotions – sadness, yes, but also resolve and faith that our message has not fallen on deaf ears. While she and I have some differences, I am confident that she will wake up every morning determined to fight for what’s best for Floridians."

---

He draws a stark difference, of course, with zillionaire Rick Scott, who "may not have the best interest of Floridians at heart." I call that an understatement, but then, I am no politician or statesman.

But I want to draw a stark contrast with this and Bill McCollum. As quoted in The Buzz, McCollum has congratulated Scott but has no plans to endorse. Apparently, after a slash-and-burn campaign where Scott refused to disclose much about himself but tarred and feathered a long-serving public servant, McCollum still has questions about "his charecter, his integrity, his honesty."

I don't think that is just sour grapes. I was amazed in 2004 when Bill McCollum, after a grueling primary in which Mel Martinez called McCollum the "new darling of the homosexual extremists," McCollum ended up backing the GOP nominee. What is different now?

This is an executive post. McCollum may have had a professional respect in 2004 for Democrat Betty Castor, but he was not going to back anyone who would caucus in Washington with Senate Democrats. In collegial legislative bodies, party matters. So does philosophy, and whatever personal gripe he had with Martinez, the two aligned politically, and Martinez would promote a similar agenda to the one McCollum had in Congress.

But a major thing to consider as Chiles endorses Sink is this. Chiles has no obligation to back Sink. He challenged as an independent. There is no party commitment. He hasn't run before and may never run again. McCollum, though, has somewhat of a partisan obligation to back the victor of the primary in the general election. Right now, he is choosing not to do so.

That truly speaks volumes.

Thanks for Listening, Bud

Bud Chiles is out of the race for governor, according to numerous media sources. I think it is pretty clear he heard the very reasoned calls of Rantings From Florida to drop out if he is too afraid to run as a Democrat.

More seriously, though, this is the first time I have felt good about Rick Scott winning the Republican nomination. Whether Chiles was frightened by the blackness pouring from Scott's soul or simply intimidated by his millions, I believe fear of a Scott victory shook some sense into the pragmatic activist. If he was scared of Sink's personal fortune, he had to realize Scott buys millionaires of Sink's caliber to feed to the pit of souls he got in the HCA settlement. This was never a race that Chiles could win, but until today, it seemed likely Scott could, if only by buying the mansion outright when the market is low.

Earlier this week, I responded to a conservative reader's question on whether Alex Sink would move to the left or the right as the general election drew closer. I predicted then that if Chiles stayed in the race, she may have to move to the left, but that I thought her more suitable as a centrist candidate. I know that is a dirty word in the blogosphere, but the most important thing for any candidate to be is authentic, and with a pro-business ex-banker running on her record as the state's Chief Financial Officer, we need to accept that Alex Sink is an authentic moderate Democrat.

Just as important, we should understand that a chief executive in Florida will have to placate an electorate not known for extreme liberalism. We have a great opportunity to elect a true liberal to the Senate, where ideology matters far more. But Alex Sink, a loyal Democrat whose roots are in corporate management, is a good choice for the Governor's mansion, and likely the best we can get right now.

Somehow, Sink has become a favorite to win an election in which every poll showed her losing a few months ago. Despite a natural environment and a conventional wisdom that this is a Republican year, the Democratic Party in Florida is poised for its most successful cycle in recent memory. Every Cabinet post has potential to swing our way. And in Congress, I still see the potential for us to pick up a seat and defend all challenged incumbents.

I have given Bud Chiles a hard time for nearly foiling his father's legacy, but today, I applaud him, and thank him for doing the right thing. His support, which has floated anywhere from 9 points to 19 points depending on the pollster, will most likely swing to Sink. Honestly, much of it would anyway as horrified Chiles supporters were faced not merely with the prospect of conservative but respectable Bill McCollum but of the sinister criminal mastermind Rick Scott. This was the best thing for Democrats and the best thing for Florida.

Thanks for listening, Bud.

Defeat the Dark Lord Voldemort!

In my opinion, there has been entirely too much enthusiasm within the left regarding Rick Scott's victory on Tuesday night. The general consensus seems to be, he's a buffoon so we can make mince of this guy. But that logic is terribly flawed.

First, it acknowledges that Bill McCollum would have been a more difficult primary opponent for Alex Sink in November. In many ways, I think that is true. McCollum had more years in public service than Sink, while Scott had less. McCollum had more name recognition from four statewide runs for office, while Scott remains a political novice. And yet, Scott beat McCollum by three points.

Public Policy Polling, the only pollster to nail the gubernatorial primary results for Tuesday, has a new poll out now which pegs Sink 7 points up, but I'd be a hypocrite to argue repeatedly that Democrats would come together in the Senate post-primary but suggest the same would not happen here. Many Republicans who are not very enthusiastic about Rick Scott still don't want a Democrat in the governor's mansion, and will hold their nose in November. Meanwhile, those outsider-loving voters who see this criminal as the savior of their party will enthusiastically bubble in Scott's name.

Of course, the notion this guy is going to come and clean up a mess left by "career politicians" is kind of like the Enron guys to show the AIG guys how to balance the books. But that is beside the point.

Sink needs to be running like she is 7 points down right now. Scott's numbers will go up. And if he pumps another $50 million into this over the next 10 weeks, and honestly he will probably pump in more, a big chunk will go toward driving Sink's negatives up. As Chief Financial Officer, Sink has not been in the most press-heavy of Cabinet positions. To many voters, she is an unknown. And her private sector resume, a successful run at Bank of America, doesn't lend the same credibility it once could offer.

But Sink still has a great deal to offer. She is a successful businesswoman and proven statewide winner, something not prevalent within the Democratic Party. The role she has played with Leadership Florida creates an instant network of expert support to lean on both as a candidate and a governor. In her time of the cabinet she has been on the right side of debates on oil, and has been a voice of reason to counter the actions of a Republican-dominated Legislature and Governor.

Also, as noted by the St. Pete Times/Miami Herald team, Sink is far better connected with the Tallahassee crowd. With the absence of a Republican insider, those business leaders who have worked the Capitol hallways so well just might favor the known quantity of Sink over the unpredictable, fraud-ridden Scott. In other words, there are advantages to be an insider, and Sink should use them.

But there also must be an assault against Scott. He can not be treated as some he-who-must-not-be-named. McCollum has done much of the homework here for us. But we need to keep reminding the general public that this guy's private sector success was running a company which earned a record fine for stealing tax dollars. A friend noted to me the other day that the $1.7-billion settlement HCA earned was likely a fraction of the money bilked, and the $300,000 severance package Scott received was barely a pittance from a board that profited so handily from the company's dirty deeds.

The only way to defeat this evil is to stare it in the eyes and deliver the truth. Scott has already shown himself to be evasive, short-tempered and dumb.

But he is also rich, and willing to spend loads of dough. Florida is a notoriously expensive state in which to run a campaign, but he can afford it. The Democrats cannot allow him to write his own sugar-coated biography that says he ran a hospital with high satisfaction and low bills, never mind how the bills were kept so low. He can't tout himself a successful businessman, never mind getting fired. He can't describe himself as transparent, never mind an unwillingness to release depositions.

This campaign is going to be hard for Democrats to win, maybe harder than against the establishment-backed but charisma-free McCollum. And Sink better not think she won anything in Tuesday's Republican primary.

P.S. Hey Bud, Please Withdraw.

So Sick of Polls

I recently heard USF Professor Susan MacManus suggest Florida is over-polled on politics. Being a swing state for presidential elections and host to a competitive Senate race most cycles, that is possibly true. But right now, I am wishing it wasn't getting polled at all.

A new Quinnipaic has some interesting results, but at this point, I find myself taking everything with a grain of salt. Their data shows shows Alex Sink winning the governor's race against either Bill McCollum or Rick Scott, but shows both Republicans getting the exact same percentage (29) and Bud Chiles pulling in 12 percent regardless of who wins the GOP nomination. That odd coincidence was enough to make RedState write off the poll. Which I kind of understand.

Of course, they loved the poll that shows Marco Rubio winning the Senate race in a Rubio-Charlie Crist-Kendrick Meek matchup. I said then the poll shouldn't be taken seriously. Now I wonder if any should.

The only axiom in politics is that only one poll matters. That, of course, is the true results on election say. There is so much interest in Florida's gubernatorial and Senate contests that we are getting polls everyday offering different results. It is easy to find comfort in a poll which shows your guy on top, and I am as guilty as any there. Yesterday, I posted something on McCollum leading Scott in the polls, and planned to do another post yesterday on Meek beating Greene.

But a poll can be found to support any candidate. Jeff Greene. Rick Scott. Every candidate that matters has seen a poll come out in the last five weeks which showed them on top. The results vary greatly. That is because the questions asked vary, and the voter screening is different. Enough so that the numbers may best be described now as crap. And if the opinion of the public on these candidates is so malleable it can shift 11 points in two days, then there is no way pollsters can get voters on the phone fast enough they don't their minds.

So I am giving up on polls at least until after the primary. No more will be sourced on this blog until we know the candidates on the November ballot.

Don't Get Excited Yet, Alex

It's old news now, but Alex Sink has pulled ahead in the governor's race, according to a new poll released today by Public Policy Polling. She beats McCollum 37-23 and Scott 36-30. There are no trend lines worth noting, as the last time PPP took a look at this race was in March. Furthermore, no other poll shows Sink leading on both Bill McCollum and Rick Scott, though a poll released earlier this month showed her ahead of McCollum.

But for a million reasons, there should be no breaking out of champaign. This poll has plenty of bad news for Sink. For 54 percent of voters, Sink in unknown, a bad thing considering she has served as Chief Financial Officer now for four years. She even remains unknown by 49 percent of Democrats. This isn't surprising to me. One thing I'd like to see polled, just for curiosity, is how many people think Alex Sink is a man. I, for one, find myself correcting her gender virtually every time her name comes up in conversation. Meanwhile, only 36 percent view Rick Scott as an unknown, and just 33 percent have no opinion of McCollum.

One curiosity, independent son-of-someone-famous Bud Chiles is only viewed positively by 12 percent of those polled, yet comes in at 13 percent in a matchup with Sink and McCollum and pulls 14 percent in a race with Sink and Scott. While he can't be called a spoiler if Sink wins, that likely shows there are some people willing to vote for Chiles based purely on his late father's good name.

What distresses me most about the poll, though, is the continued trend of Sink performing worse against Scott than McCollum. Scott is so slimy, I can't imagine why anyone would be more inclined to vote for him than any alternative. That shows more about the crooks-over-politicians mentality that poisons the tea conservatives are drinking. I've complained about this before, but there really is no core value that should drive conservatives to support Rick Scott. It is a disgrace to the philosophy that this man gains any support at all.

At this point, though, Scott is the nominee. He has extraordinary problems, and fortunately, Bill McCollum is matching Scott dollar-for-dollar in advertisements explaining everything wrong with the disgraced hospital executive as a gubernatorial prospect. Scott's negatives rise every day, and the PPP poll shows 41 percent of voters already realize he is bad news.

But since they have no opinion of Sink whatsoever, Scott can still beat Sink in the general election. That leaves the Democrat a window from now until the Aug. 24 primary election to make sure everybody in Florida knows who she is, and thinks good things about her going into November.

Don't believe Rick Scott is going to run out of money before the general. The man is sitting on more ill-gotten loot than you'll find on the Pirates of the Caribbean ride. He will spend every day between Aug. 25 and Nov. 2 beating the heck out of her on the air. Sink's negatives are now at 22, but Scott will make sure they go up. Sink's positives sit at 24 today. It is her job to make those rise. While Scott and McCollum are arguing about how much taxpayer money should be wasted in their mudslinging contest, Sink needs to get on TV and convince voters she is the real deal before an utter fake starts telling them otherwise.

Yes, McCollum is awful, but...

It has been brought to my attention that I may too gentle and respectful of Bill McCollum on this blog. Many of those closest to me suggest that I am ignoring many of the deplorable acts, past and present, for which the gubernatorial candidate is responsible. It made me ask myself, have I been too kind to this Republican ideologue? Has his mild-mannered demeanor made me forget the reactionary inside? Most importantly, am I being too nice?

The answer is... Yes, but there is a better reason than those listed above.

That reason is Rick Scott, who so far has shown himself to be a Tea Party corporatist's fantasy candidate. Between his anti-immigrant rhetoric and unapologetic record of fraud, Scott has shown zero qualifications and boasts a bio which indicates more reasons not to vote for him than to cast support his way. Yet, a Florida Chamber poll released this weekend indicates he leads McCollum in the Republican primary for governor by five points, outside the poll's margin of error. The same poll shows both Scott and McCollum beating Democrat Alex Sink in the general election, and Chiles pulling in just enough as an independent to ruin Sink's chance at catching up.

So what is a good citizen to do? Route for the crooked billionaire? I have trouble doing that. For all his flaws, McCollum also has a record of public service fighting for federal dollars to come to Florida, especially in his old House district. Right now, it is also hard to forget his consistent opposition to oil drilling.

But I admit Scott's record of deception and failure within the private sector would make him a great opponent in the general election as far as our side is concerned. The Democrats ought to be able to tear him apart with ads reminding of Scott's poor judgment at HCA. Does anyone recall the way Sen. Mel Martinez made the entire 2004 Senate race about Democrat Betty Castor's handling of a single professor while President of USF? We should be able to play the same game with Scott, and do it more effectively. After all, his work in charge of HCA is the only real background he has that would qualify him for office, and he was such a failure there he was driven out by the board of directors after paying more than a billion in fines.

So part of me doesn't want to risk a Scott gubernatorial term at all. But will it be harder work to beat McCollum in the general election? Perhaps, but let me submit this clearly overdue laundry list of his flaws.

Remember that highly unpopular impeachment of a sitting President because of a sex scandal. Bill McCollum walked the impeachment papers to the Senate and was among 13 Congressman acting as prosecutors in the Senate trial. Because he was so incompetent and completely wrong, he lost despite a Republican majority in the Senate.

Looking forward to the benefits of health care reform? Well sit tight because pending litigation may delay the effects of the landmark legislation. Who would file suit against improvements to the system? Bill McCollum, and he is doing it with Florida state money. If this was just some tea party quack filing a frivolous suit, it would get dismissed, but McCollum will use the power of the AG office to push this to the Supreme Court. And guess what he thinks of regular people filing frivolous lawsuits, like those filed when health care screws people. Yeah. he doesn't like those so much.

And did you notice the Republican Party of Florida was in shambles? He didn't.

So maybe I have been too nice to Bill. Maybe he deserves to lose in August and be denied a November defeat. Maybe he is no worse than Scott. Maybe for a candidate so intent on limiting government, it is embarrassing to have a resume with nothing besides government jobs and temporary lobbying work.

But hopefully we won't need to be that mean. It seems Scott and McCollum are interested in destroying one another before the end of August. If Alex Sink can stay above the fray and develop a positive reputation among voters while those two sling mud, it may not matter who gets the Republican nomination. But until then, I concede it is important liberals in Florida know exactly what is at stake. And they shouldn't get so distracted by the polls. Scott remains untested electorally, and McCollum has lost more statewide races than he has won. With luck, these guys will marginalize themselves, but if they can't get the job done, we should be ready to finish it.

Please Bud, Run as a Democrat

Time is running out for Bud Chiles to do the right thing and run for governor as a Democrat. I would like to make an impassioned plea for this FLorida native son to stop his hopeless independent bid. I am not asking him not to run, just to run the appropriate campaign within the system that exists in Florida today. He has until noon Friday to do the right thing, a move that will benefit both his own campaign and the future of the state.

Why would this be wise for Bud Chiles? It seems Chiles was scared out of the Democratic primary by Alex Sink's war chest. But running to the general is the wrong approach to that obstacle. In a primary, Sink will be guarded about how much to spend, as there must be money left to challenge the Republican machine in the general election. The same does not hold true if Chiles rushes straight to the general election ballot. There will be no runoff, and every candidate in this race will spend the last dollar they have before Nov. 2. Sink's huge bank account is more dangerous in a general election fight. And of course, the GOP will also spend what they have on a November showdown. Chiles is worried about funding a competitive August campaign, but has no shot in November. Plus, if he can't beat Sink a two-person primary, why will it be easier to beat Sink and the Republican nominee in a three-person campaign?

Plus, Chiles would be more competitive in the Democratic primary. A recent Quinnipiac poll shows Chiles does not hold the same sway with independent voters as higher-profile nonpartisan candidates. In a match-up between Chiles, Sink and Republican Bill McCollum, Chiles gets only 24 percent of the independent vote, more than Sink but less than McCollum. If Rick Scott is the GOP nominee, Chiles actually does worse with independent voters, grabbing only 20 percent. Compare these numbers to the Senate race, where the same poll shows Charlie Crist supported by 51 percent of independent voters. If Chiles is expecting an uprising among Florida independents because of this year's climate, this data shows he won't enjoy any fruit from it.

And of course, the poll shows Chiles coming in third place no matter what. He gets 19 percent of the vote in a Sink-McCollum-Chiles battle, and 13 percent in a Sink-Scott-Chiles race. After coming in third, what will Chiles have wrought? He is running a campaign built primarily on a message of boosting education. But his entry into the race will most likely keep the Republicans in the governor's mansion, and this state GOP is as hostile toward public education as any in America.

If Chiles believes he is a superior candidate to Sink, he should take her on in a one-on-one race for the Democratic nomination. He probably has a better chance at beating her there. That name he is counting on to win votes? That will matter more with the party regulars who vote in August. Florida is a state where a significant number of general election voters have moved here in the past 10 years, and therefore have no memory of Lawton Chiles' time as governor or senator. That isn't so true of Democratic primary voters. And it would take less money to win in August, with mailers going onto to registered Democrats, and probably only the supervoters within that set. Winning a primary means winning the hearts and minds of educated voters, and depends upon a solid GOTV effort more than a glossy television campaign. The Walkin' Lawton style, which the younger Chiles seems bent upon duplicating, will have far more effect with the smaller voter pool.

And should he beat Sink, he will have a ready army who would have already voted for him once. He will have the attention of the Democratic establishment, who would very much like to hold the Governor's Mansion for the first time in a dozen years. Money would flow in nationwide, replenishing the funds spent in a primary campaign. And he has the chance to win over Sink supporters by the general, the same way Barack Obama won back Hillary voters before November 2008. Indeed, if there were a competitive Democratic primary right now, voters would hear about someone in this race besides Scott and McCollum, who are flooding the airwaves now because of the impending Republican primary.

Understand, Florida is a closed primary state. The system works on the assumption that the two-party system is the best approach to elections. There are problems with that approach, but open primaries have problems as well. Ask South Carolina. Regardless, our system punishes those candidates that refuse to work within the confines of the parties. Perhaps a candidate like Charlie Crist, who has been the Republican nominee in a statewide election four times, can overcome that, but only after he has risen to the highest executive office in the state playing within the party system. Even for Crist, this election is a huge experiment and a venture where he runs a high risk of failure. For Chiles, this race is unwinnable without the nomination of a major party.

And if Chiles lost the Democratic primary, so what? He is going to lose anyway. If Sink loses in the general, Chiles comes back in four years and says 'I told you so' as he kicks off a new campaign. He would get more time to build his own name up in the meanwhile. If Sink wins, he can run for other offices, and build up his own reputation until the chance for a gubernatorial bid rises again.

But if he loses as an independent and siphons enough votes from Sink to make Ralph Nader blush, then we get Gov. Bill McCollum, or worse, Gov. Rick Scott. And we will all hate his guts.

Quinnipiac: Sink behind Scott, Chiles at 19

Sometimes a poll rattles your senses and makes you question everything happening around you. That happened to me today when I saw a new Quinnipiac University poll presenting stunning figures about the governor's race in Florida and very bad news for Democrat Alex Sink. The poll has her losing to Republican frontrunner Bill McCollum 42-34, a bigger gap than she might hope but not too divergent from past performance. Worse news, though, is how she polls against Republican insurgent Rick Scott, who Quinnipiac figures would beat her 42-32, and what effect independent Bud Chiles has on the race, with this poll suggesting he could get as much as 19 percent of the vote.

The poll also provides an update on the Senate race, but nothing too different from other polls. I may come back to it at a later post but won't get into it right now. The short of it: Crist at 37, Rubio at 33, Meek at 15.

First, a look at what this poll says about Rick Scott, the uber-monied ex-HCA chief who has been spooking McCollum. This poll doesn't bother matching up Scott and McCollum, which is curious, but does a general election matchup of Scott and Sink. Scott's performance against Sink is certainly not as good as McCollum's, but he does beat the Democrat soundly. In this hypothetical matchup, he would roughly the same support of independents as Sink, and he cleans her clock in every region of the state except liberal Southeast Florida. Scott has a favorable rating of 31/22, compared to Sink's 28/14. Especially troubling, 56 percent of voters haven't heard enough about Sink to form an opinion, compared with 46 percent of voters who say the same about Scott. This is amazing considering Sink won statewide office before and served as Chief Financial Officer the past four years, whereas nobody knew who Rick Scott was two months ago. And since Scott hit the scene, every news report about him makes mention of HCA's $1.7-billion in fines, something one would expect to drive up his negatives.

Now for Chiles. The poll notes a higher margin of error on all Chiles numbers because of his recent entry into the race. But taking the numbers at face value, he could have a much bigger effect on this race than I anticipated. Despite the fact 81 percent of voters haven't formed an opinion on Chiles, the progeny of the late governor would get 19 percent of the vote in a matchup against McCollum, who would win with 33 percent, and Sink, who would get 25 percent. That places Sink closer to Chiles in the poll than to McCollum, and she doesn't want to be fighting for second.

Interestingly, this poll shows Scott as the candidate most resistant to Chiles. In a three-way matchup between himself, Sink and Chiles, he wins with 35 percent, more than McCollum would get, while Sink gets 26 percent and Chiles gets 13. An interesting note, this poll shows Scott's Republican support is actual more loyal and partisan than McCollum's, despite McCollum being the establishment candidate. Another curiosity, Sink's Republican support seems to go up when Chiles enters the race, though that matters little as he syphons a huge portion of the independent vote away.

So what lessons can be gleaned from all this?

Scott needs to be taken very seriously be everybody in this race. Alex Sink should not think a run against Scott will be a cakewalk, but I think she knows that. I was a bit surprised in the last week when she started making critical comments about Scott in the media, but that makes sense now. I would guess she has internal polling that shows he poses as much of a threat to her as Bill McCollum does.

Another lesson is that Bud Chiles will be a much greater threat than anticipated if he sticks in this race. Many predicted last week that he could take 5 percent of the vote and spoil Sink's chance of winning. Now it is clear he can do far more damage, and he has barely started his campaign. I previously called for Chiles to challenge Sink in the Democratic primary instead of spoiling the general election for Democrats. I hope this poll shows him both that he can wage a competitive primary run and that he has no chance in the general election to do anything but hand this race to the GOP.

But for Sink, I think the poll shows why getting her name in front of voters is critical right now. With full television advertising pushes already underway from McCollum and Scott, not to mention all the chatter in the Senate race, the campaign season has officially begun in the minds of Florida voters, and she can't let people make up their minds before learning more about her.

Sink has reportedly told Chiles she would spend $30 million to win this race. She needs to start right now.

Chiles Announces Losing Campaign

Now the question is how many candidates will lose because of this.

"Bud" Chiles, son of the late Gov. Lawton Chiles, announced today he will run for governor as an independent. This is very bad news for the Alex Sink campaign, as the Democrat has the potential to spoil her rising campaign. I am personally disappointed in Chiles and feel this is a dangerous stunt with no chance at success.

But didn't this very blog predict Charlie Crist would win the Senate race despite a candidacy with no party affiliation? Yes, but there are enormous differences between Chiles and Crist. Chiles holds no elected office, and no standing statewide political operation in place. Crist makes headlines every day he signs or vetoes a bill, but Chiles has little chance of making the news on his own beyond today. He will be relegated to a paragraph at the bottom of certain news stories, if that. Chiles also is no Rick Scott and isn't ready to drop millions in personal wealth on a likely-losing campaign. He carries his father's legal name and broad business connections from his activism from his work on Worst to First and the Lawton Chiles Foundation, but neither of those carry much weight with the typical Florida voter, and running as an independent means the benefits those connections do bring mean a great deal less.

I would like to have seen Chiles run as a Democrat, not because I prefer him over Sink, but because it would have raised the profile of the party primary. A healthy primary contest would produce a better candidate for the general election regardless of who came out victorious. In the meantime, it would grab headlines to duel with the McCollum-Scott circus act playing out in Florida media right now. What I worry about is that Chiles will act as Ralph Nader in this campaign. Without Nader's Green party candidacy, Al Gore almost certainly would have won Florida in 2000, likely by a recount-free margin, and we would have been spared the W. years.
Especially with the Crist campaign in full swing, Chiles is going to pick up some left-leaning independents in the general election this year and may deliver victory to McCollum.

While Sink has been trailing in the polls, I always felt confident she would win this race. But I don't kid myself into believing it will be easy. Sink is the only person holding statewide office in Florida right now to have won her first statewide election, but McCollum did win one the same year, and he has run two other statewide campaigns in the past. Most agree this will be a tough year for Democrats, though I personally think that matters less with open seats. I also believe Sink realizes this is a tougher race than CFO. She knows too well what happened when her husband Bill McBride ran for governor in 2002 and got trounced. I still recall him telling me at a Daily Commercial editorial board meeting how he believed beating Jeb Bush would be easy once he knocked Janet Reno out in the primary and carried the aura of a winner. I knew then he would be in trouble come November. Sink will not make the same mistake and underestimate the Republican machine.

But Chiles clearly has if he believes he has a shot to win. As an indy, Chiles will either be an also-ran who takes less than 3 percent of the vote or a serious spoiler who ends up in the teens come Election Day. Either way, those votes may be enough to sink Sink.

Chiles has until June 18 to change his mind and run as a Democrat or get out. Let's cross our fingers.

Chiles vs. Sink?

The buzz right now is that Bud Chiles will jump into the governor's race in Florida. Amazingly, that may make the Democratic primary for the mansion the most interest race in August. But I'm not sure Chiles has what it takes to successfully challenge Alex Sink.

Now I admit that since Sink married to a guy who graduated high school from my alma mater, I have somewhat of a bias. But several other matters give her a serious front-runner edge. Most obviously, Sink has run and won statewide, and is the only Democrat on a statewide ballot this year to have done so. She has also been running for a little over a year, and raised about $6.2 million as of the end of March. And while self-financing candidates can shake up a race, I am not sure Bud Chiles has millions stuffed in the couch cushions that could be risked on a vanity run.

I won't sell Chiles short though, or discount Sink's negatives.

On the plus for Chiles is his name. His father Lawton Chiles ran two successful campaigns for governor and served in the U.S. Senate for 20 years. Between 1970 and 1998, he was a powerhouse in Florida that not even Jen Bush could stop. And when he died in office days before retirement, his legacy became all the more difficult to taint. Bud bears his father's legal name, as well as a nice nickname, which has become a requirement to run a serious campaign for governor in Florida. He has taken on the "Walkin' Lawton" mantel as well, and is leading a walking campaign across Florida for the "Worst to First" education effort. Among other things, that will give him credibility with the teachers' unions, a pivotal voting bloc in Democratic politics here.

As for Sink, it is no secret incumbency has become a bit of a burden. As the state's Chief Financial Officer, she will be held responsible by some for the economic recession and lack of recovery in this state. She has been going after banks recently, but won't erase the fact her private sector background is in banking. Remember, when she ran four years ago it was her time at NationsBank/Bank of America which served as her major selling point. Now that background isn't the best "Tallahassee outsider" resume to pitch.

But if nothing else, maybe having interesting contests for both the Democratic party with a Sink-Chiles fight and the Republicans with a McCollum-Scott battle will get voters to pay attention to something besides the Senate race. That can't hurt anyone.