Told You So

Haridopolos out. Never stood a chance.

The obvious question now is who will run. Adam Hasner seems to be the best shot right now for the right. This exit is big enough it probably opens to door to someone like Connie Mack to reconsider, but I expect whatever secret skeleton was hinted at in that closet is still hanging around.

Some sitting Congressmen may also make a go, at least one of whom could really complicate my blogging life.

But it seems to me today as it has seemed for a very long time. Sen. Bill Nelson is in a stronger-than-it-appears position to get re-elected. And at this point, time is on his side.

Is This The Best They Got?

When I read other blogs, I wonder if I should be writing more about Mike Haridopolos. His recent disastrous performance on the Ray Junior show has made him the subject of endless political mockery once again. He is hated as much by members of his own party as he is by any other group, and the aspects of corruption with his book deal with Brevard Community College have been overshadowed with the laughable factor the book was so bad it was not broadly released.

Despite all of this, he seems to be the frontrunner against incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson. Simply amazing.

Sometimes, one wonders what type of magic elixir Bill Nelson consumed as a young lawmaker to make his Senate career so fortuitous. When he ran in 2000, he was blessed when Republican leadership interfered with an interesting primary that year and made sure Bill McCollum got the nod with very little vetting, and subsequently allowed Nelson to sit back and watch a politician with legendary poor charisma brag about the Clinton impeachments. Despite the historically close presidential election results that year, Nelson destroyed McCollum at the polls.

Six years later, Republican interference couldn't stop Katherine Harris from becoming the nominee. The controversial and polarizing candidate was always a longshot to win a general election, but when it became clear 2006 would be a Democratic wave year, it seemed even the strident Harris gave up on the race, doing few events and eventually succumbing to Nelson in that race.

Right now, it seems 2012 is going to end up another easy re-election battle for Nelson. That isn't to say he shouldn't be stocking up for war. Who thought two years out that Ron Klein would lose to Wild Wild West?

But Haridopolos is an utter joke, and if he becomes the nominee, he will be the least serious candidate for U.S. Senate I have seen in my lifetime. Who will stop him? I read that conservatives like Adam Hasner, but a term as Republican leader in the Florida House is neither a great way to build a resume or to develop any significant name recognition statewide. It is a way to get some skeletons in your closet which will come out the second he seems like a serious candidate. For example...

Who else will run? It seems amazing in a state where politics are so incredibly dominated by the GOP that noone wants to challenge Nelson during a presidential year. The GOP National Convention is being held in Tampa next year, and the GOP knows it can only beat Obama if they win in Florida. If they don't have a goos Senate candidate, that will be very hard to do.

There are no other statewide offices up for grabs in 2012, but no Cabinet members seem interested in running. The governor has shown no interest, and probably isn't going to be in a good place to make such a run in 2012 anyhow. So what is it?

I think people know that the next election cycle is going to go our way. They don't say so out loud, but the lackluster list of candidates for President is as good a demonstration as any. Any GOP candidates in Florida with serious ambitions for serving Florida knows they have a better shot at getting stuff done in a state office right now, then considering a run for Washington in the future. All of Florida's Republican Congressman are probably pretty confident the redistricting process will make re-election to the House easy, while running statewide is undeniably hard.

And so, somehow, Sen. Bill Nelson seems likely once again to coast, and Mike Haridopolos seems ready for two years of ridicule.

Eliminate Term Limits

It is no secret in Tallahassee that term limits have not been what they were cracked up to be. Imposed by voters in the late 90s, the idea had its appeal to voters across the spectrum. Since then, though, we have seen only a growth in the influence of lobbyists, a steady drum beat of corruption and a sad state of affairs where no decent lawmaker can make a difference before getting escorted into retirement.

I covered the Legislature in 2000, the first year the true effects of term limits were felt. Back then, so many new lawmakers were coming to town that Tom Feeney had them all where name tags with pictures. The House at the time still had its share of long-timers waiting to be wiped out by the full effects of the law in 2002, but already the problems were making themselves known. Rookie lawmakers were won over by big ideas that had shallow supporting facts. I know one lawmaker who voted for a bill that would allow dirty water to be injected into the aquifer, and within days had turned his position around as he got new facts. How did this happen? It was just too easy for lobbyists to convince lawmakers of anything just long enough for them to cast a vote.

In the coming decade, the Senate would increasingly become frustrated with terms. This body will always have the most experience just because so many House members move from one Chamber to the other, but the fact Senators with less than a decade of experience can seem long in the tooth in Tallahassee shows an enormous problem.

Rick Kriseman in St. Pete is trying to improve the situation by lengthening the terms of lawmakers and making their stays in Tallahassee a little bit longer. But with all due respect, this isn't enough.

For any change to happen, there must be a voter-approved amendment to the Constitution. And if you are going through the expense of a campaign convincing voters term limits are bad, you may as well fix the problem entirely.

We need to eliminate term limits entirely.

I know this is a touch sell. And I realize pointing at chambers full of incompetent or outright corrupt lawmakers is not something which instinctively makes people desire career politicians. But it is important people understand the fundamental reasons why Tallahassee is broken.

Most legislators in Tallahassee are generally good people. Even the ones whose agendas are bad are there with good intentions. But they simply don't know what they are doing. The incompetence is a byproduct of ignorance, not stupidity. Perhaps lawmakers would be less inclined to believe glossy PowerPoint presentations by high-priced lobbyists if they had the savvy to tell basic facts from bullshit slides. That comes with time, not training.

It also comes with years of communicating with constituents, which is where I think Kriseman might have something wrong. There are problems with the year-round campaign cycle, but a good thing about having House members up for vote every two years is that they have to face the music back home for good and bad choices. I don't really want to lose that, especially when I see potential for Democrats in the coming campaign cycle to make real inroads for the first time in years.

But I also don't want to see good lawmakers lost. If a public servant, regardless of their political philosophies, is representing his or her constituency well and delivering good government practice, then they shouldn't get tossed after eight or 12 years just for getting re-elected too many times.

Our problem is that lawmakers stick around too short a time, not too long. We have a Senate President right now who never served in Tallahassee before 2000, when that first heavy freshman class I was talking about first arrived at the Capitol. But Mike Haridopolos is an old-timer compares to House Speaker Dean Cannon, who just arrived in Tallahassee in 2004. Mix that in with a new Governor and a Cabinet full of folks in their first years at their current jobs and you have a mess of inexperience and brash reactionaries.

So I am sorry Rep. Kriseman. Your intentions are correct, but your solution is short-sighted. Maybe if you had a little more experience...

Stupid Pol of the Week: Installment 2

I have a funny feeling this gentleman will win this award frequency. The respected Senate President from Merritt Island caught heat last week for putting off an ethics bill, which seemed particularly unsmooth for a politician drowning in ethics violations.

Congratulations Mike Haridopolos. You are the Rantings From Florida Stupid Pol of the week.

http://www.flsenate.gov/userContent/Senators/2010-2012/photos/s026.jpg

Of course, having leadership get in the way of an ethics bill is stupid at any point, but what makes President Mike's public mishandling of this situation so bad is that he is the only high-profile candidate currently running against Bill Nelson for U.S. Senate. Note I say high-profile, not serious. This man cannot stop a GOP-dominated Legislature from blasting him apart in public week after week, so imagine when an incumbent Democratic Senator takes to the airwaves on this sorry excuse for a politician.

Most of Florida doesn't know who Mike Haridopolos is. When they decide to learn and google this man's name, posts like this are all that will come up. The Senate run is a fool's errand, and Haridopolos is the fool.

Why Haridopolos Is Not a Serious Candidate

Since Mike Haridopolos is the only significant name so far to announce a challenge against Sen. Bill Nelson, media and bloggers inevitably treat him with a level of seriousness. It is unwarranted. Here is why, via the St. Pete Times:

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For the first time anyone can remember, a Florida Senate president was admonished by his own Senate in the first week of session for breaking ethics rules — specifically failing to fully and accurately detail his finances as required by the state Constitution.
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Folks. The Republican-doninated state Senate would not do this if they felt this guy had a shot in the dark at joining the ranks of the U.S. Senate. Heck, they let David Rivera lie on his financials for years and never bothered with this sort of censure. Sure, John Thrasher went to lengths to avoid naming Haridopolos, calling the Senate president only the "senator from the 26th," but this sort of black eye derails a lot of efforts to boost positive name recognition for Mikey, and it does it at the start of the session, when Haridopolos is prohibited from much real campaigning for a couple months.

There are many other reasons why Haridopolos is not a great bet to beat Nelson. His Merritt Island district is so close to Nelson's Melborne base. The name recognition of state legislators is poor statewide, even for leadership. He has a super-long and hard-to-spell last name. And so far, he hasn't been very good at holding his own caucus together during some high-profile kerfuffles with the governor.

Give this guy a couple months of session screw-ups and we will forget he ever was in the game at all.

The Omission of Oversight

The future of government is Florida is pretty bleak right now, and I think some readers are correct to anticipate legislation like the teacher pay bill will be coming back in the coming session. Now, I don't know that everything will return in exactly the same form, but the bigger problem we face as citizens in Florida is that this go-round there will be virtually no scrutiny on lawmakers as they play with our government.

I think the teacher pay bill will come back, but it is telling the Legislature did not simply override Charlie Crist's veto last month when they were in special session. Other high-profile legislation, such as the abortion bill, also were passed over, but I think the Legislature this year will simply do something even more Draconian.

This is a Legislature where right-wingers have unprecedented control over the lawmaking process, and one where leadership is already spitting in the eye of dissent. See, for instance, the early remarks of Speaker Dean Cannon. He attacked both the courts and Congress as he boldly stated Republicans the Florida House were new kings of the universe.

Via the Miami Herald:

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Cannon criticized ``government run amok'' in Washington and blasted Congress for ``taking over banks and financial institutions . . . socializing medicine . . . and trampling the property rights of citizens and the sovereignty of states.''

He criticized the Florida Supreme Court for striking three constitutional amendments crafted by the Legislature from the November ballot, saying the work of lawmakers was ``demolished by five unelected justices on the Supreme Court.''

Cannon, a lawyer who personally defended the Legislature's substitute amendment for two redistricting referendums backed by Democrats, called the court decisions to strike down the proposals and congressional actions ``just a few examples of threats to freedom,'' but added ``there are many others.''

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/11/16/1929602/8-crist-vetoes-overridden.html#ixzz17G0l8XJm

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Notice, this isn't just judicial activism anymore, but apparently legislative activism but higher legislative bodies. No branch of government dare trounce on the will of the House representatives.

To describe a Legislature-generated constitutional amendment intended to undermine the voter approved Fair Districts referenda as a "freedom" under threat is the ultimate in hubris.

But why focus on all of this. 'The elections are over, Jake,' you say. 'Now we need to focus on issues.'

Sadly, politics is the biggest issue facing the state right now. We have no minority party with any standing to act as even a speed bump in the legislative process. We have a governor with no interest in moderating legislation, and no power to do so even if he wanted. And we have lawmakers already planning to challenge Roe v. Wade, gut teacher pay and block federal healthcare reform. Those hated courts are the only left to stop legislation, and judges will only stand in the way of the most heinous over-reaches.

That means the top priority of progressives in Florida right now is not trying to block legislation passed this session. It is to convince voters throughout the state that we need to reverse some of these acts. Our biggest legislative focus on the next two years has to be on getting a fair shake in the redistricting process, and sadly, our best options there may also be within the courts. While I doubt Fair Districts will have an enormous effect on the process, it at least offers a judicial release valve. We need to fight for decent redistricting both in Legislature and in the state and federal courts.

But most of all, we need to prep for 2012. A president will be on the ballot then who will do what he can to activate the Democratic base statewide, and we need to make sure local parties and Democratic candidates all the way down the ballot are prepared to fight for votes. We need to be able to take back seats in the state House and Senate which were lost this year, and take a few back that never managed to get into play.

Florida is a state where Democratic voters far outnumber Republican ones, but where Democratic lawmakers are a dying species. And every year, those Dem voters become a little more liberal. WE must convince those voters that what is happening in Tallahassee is just as important as what takes place in Washington, D.C., if not more so.

We face tremendous challenges as progressives in Florida, but we also are faced with an opportunity. We will learn in the next two years what one-party rule truly means in the Sunshine State. We will see what happens when one extreme end of the political spectrum is allowed to run amok in the halls of the state Capital. And we need to seize the change to bring about change.

This cannot be done by Barack Obama. It cannot be done by the few Democratic lawmakers allowed to step foot on the floor of the state House and Senate. It must be done by us. It must be done by grassroots, netroots and the average Democratic voter.

And that is why I continue to focus on politics. All we have left is ourselves.

A Backup Plan for Haridopolos and Others

Speculation is already running rampant about who will be challenging Bill Nelson, with early focus on Senate president Mike Haridopolos. But I would like to note the biggest challenges we will face in federal elections will come from the redistricting of Florida House seats. Until we know what the map looks like, and how many ambitious pols will end up with Congressional seats drawn for them, the speculation is a bit premature (but certainly still fun, so don't stop.)

I wrote about redistricting before, stressing why it was so critical Democrats get the governor's mansion before this legislative session. But that didn't happen, so we have to deal with the cold reality that little oversight exists for a Legislature with historic GOP majorities and a Senate president promising the most right-wing agenda ever.

Early estimates show Florida most likely will get two extra House seats once the census numbers are fully tallied this year. That is the same amount we picked up in 2000. Of course, we could pick up less, or more. In 1990, we snagged four seats.

Make no mistake, those will be Republican seats. Even if Fair Districts has a positive effect on the system, something which I sadly doubt, the new seats will be drawn in a way to help the GOP. The map will be challenged, I am sure. It always is. But while new laws may govern how Republicans rig the system, I assure you it will be rigged.

The one good thing we can count on is that with so few Democratic incumbents in the House next cycle, virtually every one will have it easy in 2012. Most have solid blue districts today, and if anything, the lawmakers will try to pack more Democratic strongholds into those districts just to sort them out of red zones.

The real question is, who wants the seats, and what will they do to get them.

Florida Progressives Coalition, linked above, is following Haridopolos' Senate ambitions right now, which I am sure are genuine. But ex-Speaker Johnnie Byrd and former Senate president Dan Webster once had Senate ambitions that got squished by then-HUD Secretary Mel Martinez in 2004. Back then, Byrd fled into obscurity and Webster ran back to the state Senate until a decent House opportunity presented itself this year.

Now, any legislator who is considering a trip to Washington by defeating Bill Nelson knows it could be a tough row. Even if it turns out to be a very bad Democratic cycle (though I sincerely doubt it will be like the one just closed), Florida hasn't booted a sitting Senator since 1986, and it took popular Gov. Bob Graham and out-of-step Senator Paula Hawkins to make it happen then.

If I was living around Merritt Island, I would start wondering what House district I might be living in next year. As crazy as it sounds, it would be much easy for a sitting Senate President to draw himself a House seat, as then-state Speaker Tom Feeney did in 2000, than it would be to wage a winning statewide campaign against a fleet of ambitious GOP contenders and Nelson.

For those curious, Haridopolos' district Senate office lies within Republican Bill Posey's Congressional district. The Legislature won't endanger Posey's seat, of course, but they could screw with it. Recall that in 2000, when reshaping the 5th so that Ginny Brown-Waite would take Karen Thurman's seat, a lot of Republican voters were sucked out of Cliff Stearns' district because they knew Stearns could survive.

I would also watch Speaker Dean Cannon, who has every motive to pull a Feeney this year. Beyond that, we should see who chairs the redistricting committees next year in the House and Senate, as those people virtually always end up running for Congress in custom districts. Past committee chairs include Brown-Waite, Mario Diaz-Balart, Thurman and Peter Deutsch.

Only when we know the map will we know who is still betting the farm to be part of the 100 Kings, and who will settle for rigged House seat.