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Monday, June 7, 2010

Rubio in 2012? Doubtful...

Steven Moore lays out a decent assessment of the Florida Senate race in a Wall Street Journal column today, but makes a suggestion that can only be considered a tea party fantasy. Moore reveals that many on the right have become so enamored with Marco Rubio they envision him as a presidential candidate in 2012. If that is what Rubio wants to do, his righter-than-right campaign strategy this year will not help.

Don't get me wrong. While I find little appeal to Rubio's platform, he is taking the right road politically. In a three-man race, playing to his base is smart. And he already tapped the anti-establishment vote within the Republican Party successfully enough to drive Charlie Crist from the primary. But in a normal year, Rubio would have the chance to moderate his views with voters heading into the general election. Thanks to a Crist of fate, that ain't happening this year. Rubio has already learned with the Arizona flap that the tea party will demand he stay in the right lane. In this type of race, he can't afford to upset them as Crist and Kendrick Meek fight for moderates.

Beyond that, a hypothetical Sen. Rubio would only be two years into his term come presidential election. He would have to start campaigning on Day One after the election this year. Barack Obama was twice as far into his Senate term when he won the White House. That means he had both the aura of the outsider and a record to run on, but undoubtedly Obama's inexperience was his biggest drawback as a candidate. Now Republicans are considering running someone with less time in the Senate that Obama served, but who wouldn't have the time to pass any significant legislation, especially when working in the minority party.

But the truth is Rubio wouldn't make it as far as Obama. More experienced, better defined candidates like Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee would eat him alive. Sarah Palin would make mince of him. Rubio is talented, and indeed could win this Senate race, but no way can he get to the White House in the type of meteoric rise that could make Obama look like a man of humble ambitions.

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